Supporting Data for September 2026 Commodities Strategy

Midlincoln Commodities Rankings from best to worst

NameRank
Coking CoalCNY/MT55.83
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.34.05
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT33.32
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.27.49
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.25.95
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.23.13
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT22.42
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT20.58
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.20.15
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt20.12
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.20.10
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.19.69
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT19.32
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.19.30
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.11.12
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT9.76
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.9.44
SteelUSD/MT3.96
NickelUSD/MT2.71
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.10
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu-0.19
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.-1.36
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.-1.39
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.-7.83
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-29.06

Commodities Monthly Performance

NameUnitsLastPriceCurrencyMonthChange USDpct
Coking CoalCNY/MT1950CNY30.87
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl98580.00JPY30.22
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT1395.00USD20.54
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.91.48USD19.91
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.96.28USD19.63
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.4.5402USD19.36
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.1807USD18.80
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.5.3675USD16.62
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.7.34USD15.05
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt15.87USD14.42
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.355.10USD12.62
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.3.2146USD11.57
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu2.98USD10.78
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg239.70JPY10.66
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g337.00JPY10.49
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.66.75USD8.06
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.66.2092USD7.73
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT822.50CAD7.59
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3946.00USD7.42
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.48.9802GBP7.33
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.57.0264EUR7.09
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.422716.3438INR6.85
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.10345.8200JPY6.71
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.4429.9800USD6.58
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g22972.00JPY6.32
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.4476.60USD6.18
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.3277.2200GBP6.17
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.3814.4300EUR5.91
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.692228.7500JPY5.56
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.8633USD4.54
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT84.18USD3.99
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1822.3500USD3.97
SteelUSD/MT596USD2.94
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT14415.50USD2.48
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.6927USD2.44
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3293.50USD2.19
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT6188.00USD1.31
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.1392.0000USD1.29
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.6.6825USD0.52
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl106000.00JPY0.00
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.2.945USD0.00
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.10.235USD0.00
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.16USD0.00
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT54866.00USD-2.01
NickelUSD/MT16846USD-2.02
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.5615USD-2.22
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.0.823USD-2.43
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.2.9560000000000004USD-5.03
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.1294999999999997USD-6.56
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.3.2015USD-7.51
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet--USD

Commodities YTD Performance

NameUnitsLastPriceCurrencyYTDChange USDpct
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT1395.00USD128.69
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.4.5402USD117.18
Coking CoalCNY/MT1950CNY86.42
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.3.2146USD84.73
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl98580.00JPY71.00
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.91.48USD60.29
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.96.28USD57.50
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt15.87USD52.89
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.7.34USD41.70
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.6927USD40.00
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.8633USD33.70
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT822.50CAD31.64
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg239.70JPY29.78
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3946.00USD24.58
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT54866.00USD23.79
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl106000.00JPY23.26
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.1807USD20.71
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.5.3675USD20.28
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.355.10USD16.66
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.6.6825USD16.05
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT14415.50USD11.75
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3293.50USD6.64
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.422716.3438INR6.06
SteelUSD/MT596USD5.49
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.4476.60USD0.98
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT6188.00USD0.72
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.3814.4300EUR0.58
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.4429.9800USD0.21
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g22972.00JPY0.14
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.2.945USD0.00
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.10.235USD0.00
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.16USD0.00
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.692228.7500JPY-0.33
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.3277.2200GBP-0.56
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.0.823USD-2.95
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT84.18USD-3.77
NickelUSD/MT16846USD-5.86
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.1294999999999997USD-9.20
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.66.75USD-9.57
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.3.2015USD-9.94
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.57.0264EUR-10.36
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.66.2092USD-10.65
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g337.00JPY-11.32
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.48.9802GBP-11.32
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu2.98USD-14.12
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.10345.8200JPY-14.17
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1822.3500USD-17.52
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.1392.0000USD-18.99
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.2.9560000000000004USD-22.69
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.5615USD-27.52
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet--USD

Key Topics and News

Oil Production Cost Curve
Oil Supply and Demand
Aluminium Cost Curve
Aluminium Supply and Demand
Nickel Metal Cost Curve
Nickel Metal Supply Demand
Copper Cost Curve
Copper Supply Demand

Recent Commodities Ideas ChartArt

Top 5 Commodities Longs Based on Momentum

Tickernameunits1monthytd6months1yrRank
CKCK7 COMB ComdtyCoking CoalCNY/MT30.8786.4274.1162.5055.83
HO1 ComdtyHeating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.19.36117.1824.37108.5950.77
QS1 ComdtyGasoil (Nymex)USD/MT20.54128.6919.49109.8549.96
JI1 ComdtySilver (Tokyo)JPY/g10.49-11.32-20.89129.2539.62
XAGJPY CurncySilver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.6.71-14.17-22.22125.8336.77

Top 5 Commodities Shorts Based on Momentum

Tickernameunits1monthytd6months1yrRank
JO1 ComdtyOrange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-2.22-27.52-15.55-69.42-29.06
LH1 ComdtyLean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.-2.43-2.95-14.63-6.42-7.83
KC1 ComdtyCoffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.-5.03-22.691.01-0.15-1.39
LC1 ComdtyLive Cattle (CME)USd/lb.-6.56-9.20-10.8413.31-1.36
NG1 ComdtyNatural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu10.78-14.12-4.18-7.17-0.19

Estimates of Commodities Avg Annual Prices

NameUnitsAvg2014Avg2015Avg2016Avg2017Avg2018Avg2019Avg2020Avg2021Avg2022Avg2023Avg2024Avg2025Avg2026
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.94.9950.2842.7551.2066.4756.1540.1866.8795.0378.2877.4163.1182.28
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.101.8055.5744.4954.9372.1363.1443.5569.5699.4583.0481.8767.0685.51
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl65510.0040930.0027931.6737180.8347237.5040296.6729553.3344018.3370425.0071472.5077025.0064156.6783395.00
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu4.302.632.553.102.992.622.093.696.672.642.593.443.12
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.2.671.661.411.661.971.701.212.052.932.492.371.922.78
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.2.851.741.341.672.091.921.282.033.472.782.612.283.39
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT860.42514.50390.94495.81645.10584.38379.44575.481028.06814.38790.54684.581051.44
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl78761.6753452.5039289.1749809.1764072.5057185.8343763.3360145.0081399.1777566.6782500.0083000.00101625.00
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT7.878.546.016.2815.0524.6424.7851.4780.8183.8664.1175.7778.16
Coking CoalCNY/MT1268.211413.171308.791264.711978.752485.291698.581776.671116.001198.50
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.1256.961164.131242.981261.421296.031393.651789.181793.081809.731959.542152.923537.834587.06
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g4244.084518.754351.504528.004513.174856.426090.506300.087543.588749.6710390.3317524.6723932.63
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.1257.901165.041244.581260.771291.161390.271781.961792.231802.741946.002143.253524.474564.39
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.942.711046.481121.541119.381082.191241.641555.331512.171713.251814.651979.823126.083928.64
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.760.72762.51916.27977.94953.381094.401384.481303.821456.451582.131691.072695.923398.40
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.132439.14140867.54135395.43141150.35140707.55151395.17189708.45196137.93235376.45272542.25323040.97538181.63722858.34
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.76693.9874391.5383373.7682136.4686707.7497986.21132303.55132329.73140790.36161008.04177172.37311652.22424225.83
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.18.9915.6817.0517.2216.0216.1720.6725.0721.7923.5624.7141.9872.99
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g63.8660.5859.2061.4155.9956.4970.0888.2089.96104.98119.70205.33371.45
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.19.0015.7217.0817.2416.0216.1520.5325.0121.7123.4024.6042.5072.95
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.14.2214.1315.3915.3313.4214.4217.8421.0820.6021.8122.7337.6562.78
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.11.4810.2912.6113.3911.8212.7115.9118.1817.5119.0219.4132.4854.29
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.1997.591901.201852.361930.391744.571758.402183.742735.592827.783275.583710.946493.1411601.59
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1387.321069.77992.14958.52908.21861.19896.211090.11954.68993.07908.481385.881964.90
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.799.70704.93617.60862.401026.021512.272195.902423.552148.351397.87949.141273.911513.22
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.3.132.542.202.812.972.712.764.204.013.813.974.796.04
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT6870.465589.334873.506196.006659.255991.086143.969216.298863.008437.088716.1710281.6713158.88
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT1884.901703.581619.131957.672138.581817.921723.332437.922737.042293.882290.252743.503303.19
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT2153.041976.132096.132872.253032.002483.582239.132956.583476.172622.672507.833054.673383.38
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT22013.7516282.9217658.3320154.1720428.3318467.5017087.3330047.0031787.7525346.3327085.6733717.6750310.63
NickelUSD/MT16717.5012147.089583.7510585.8313551.6713755.8313669.2518449.6726612.0822084.5817037.8315110.3317686.50
SteelUSD/MT526.25355.00369.38493.71548.13451.42446.42679.28734.83638.00591.83554.00581.75
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.0.384.243.793.743.663.853.585.716.795.774.434.294.53
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.2.605.704.854.634.914.955.367.088.946.455.795.295.92
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.0.001.462.142.412.512.832.824.735.413.673.553.212.95
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt14.1111.0810.2510.9511.5011.5012.8013.4516.5716.3716.8712.1411.84
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.1.749.459.719.779.428.959.3113.7015.0313.9712.0110.1110.24
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.430.26326.37313.93312.35340.27306.84313.10387.33426.30431.56351.60293.87313.99
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.370.310.320.340.300.290.310.560.680.550.470.470.66
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT441.19474.08482.08509.64503.82461.20492.67787.28956.78725.55633.33612.67722.06
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT3004.173059.252905.832018.422266.752386.252486.172496.252472.673179.337061.337093.674455.38
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.1.751.321.351.341.141.021.131.672.161.711.903.533.06
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.170.130.180.160.120.120.130.180.180.240.220.170.15
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.451.251.701.551.511.081.161.221.712.953.362.991.81
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.770.630.650.750.820.670.630.921.090.830.840.670.73
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet337.38270.06295.23379.39464.43362.89496.94837.69725.05163.360.000.000.00
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg207.43190.36171.15241.90177.54181.20167.08167.90167.90167.90167.90169.87205.86
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.171.531.511.521.401.371.212.102.162.162.162.162.16
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.1.511.481.191.181.141.151.071.241.421.721.782.202.40
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.022.041.441.431.481.421.371.511.742.252.413.223.61
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.1.060.710.650.700.690.720.580.910.970.800.880.840.96

Commodities News, Table of Contents:

OilNatural GasCoking CoalGoldSilverPlatinumPalladiumCopper
3Mo Aluminum3Mo Zinc3Mo TinNickelSteelCornWheatOats
Rough RiceSoybeanCanolaCocoaCoffeeSugarOrange JuiceCotton
WoolLumberRubberEthanolLive CattleFeeder CattleLean Hogs

Oil 96.28 (USD/bbl.)

  • Oil prices have risen modestly in early September 2026 due to continued OPEC+ production discipline combined with resilient global demand, particularly from Asia. Supply disruptions in the North Sea and Libya add to tightening fundamentals. However, risks include potential easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which could increase supply, as well as ongoing economic uncertainty in major consuming regions that may dampen demand growth.
  • OPEC+ Monthly Oil Market Report September 2026
  • IEA Oil Market Report September 2026
  • Oil Prices Edge Higher Amid Supply Constraints - Reuters, Sept 4, 2026
  • Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, Sept 2026
  • As of early September 2026, global oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production restraint combined with slower-than-expected output growth from U.S. shale. Demand remains resilient amid moderate economic expansion in key emerging markets, supporting bullish price dynamics. However, uncertainty around potential geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the pace of Chinese demand growth pose material downside risks to the supply-demand balance in the near term.
  • IEA Oil Market Report – September 2026
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2026
  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026
  • Bloomberg: Oil Supply Tightness Lifts Prices Despite Economic Concerns – Sept 1, 2026
  • Reuters: U.S. Shale Growth Slows, OPEC+ Keeps Supply Curbed – Aug 29, 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the global oil cost curve continues to reflect upward pressure driven by increased capital expenditure delays among low-cost producers, particularly in the Middle East and North America. Supply constraints amid geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production discipline have shifted the marginal barrel higher. Rising production costs for deepwater and unconventional sources are further steepening the cost curve. Key risks include demand erosion from emerging energy transition policies and uncertain Chinese oil consumption trends that could soften near-term pricing power.
  • IEA Oil Market Report – August 2026
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2026
  • Schlumberger Energy Insights: Global Oil Cost Curve Q3 2026
  • Reuters: Oil Cost Curve Tightens amid Supply Cuts and Capex Deferrals
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Oil Production Costs Rise Ahead of Demand Shifts

    • Natural Gas 2.98 (USD/MMBtu)

  • Natural gas prices have retreated in early September 2026 following robust U.S. production growth and a weakening demand outlook due to milder weather forecasts. Inventory levels remain above five-year averages, pressuring the forward curve. However, ongoing European supply uncertainties, linked to delayed pipeline maintenance and geopolitical tensions, could limit downside in prices. Market focus remains on demand shifts amid economic growth concerns and potential export bottlenecks affecting global LNG flows.
  • EIA August 2026 Natural Gas Monthly Report
  • IEA Gas Market Report August 2026
  • Reuters: U.S. Natural Gas Prices Slip as Supply Surges
  • Bloomberg: European Gas Flows Under Strain Amid Pipeline Delays
  • As of early September 2026, global natural gas supply is tightening amid ongoing LNG export constraints from key producers and slower-than-expected recovery in European storage levels after summer drawdowns. Demand is firm, driven by seasonal industrial upticks in Asia and early cold-weather preparations in Europe. Key risks include potential production outages from aging infrastructure in North America and evolving Chinese gas consumption policies, which could disrupt fragile market balance into Q4.
  • IEA Natural Gas Market Report August 2026
  • EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report September 4, 2026
  • European Commission Energy Supply Update August 2026
  • Platts LNG Market Report September 1, 2026
  • CNPC Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript – Gas Segment Focus
  • As of early September 2026, the natural gas cost curve is showing upward pressure on marginal supply costs due to increased global LNG demand and supply constraints from key producing regions, notably the U.S. Gulf Coast and Russia. Production costs at fringe U.S. shale plays are rising alongside inflation in drilling and completion services. The main risk remains potential policy or regulatory shifts affecting U.S. offshore LNG exports and volatility in Asian demand, which could alter the cost curve dynamics significantly over Q4 2026.
  • EIA August 2026 Natural Gas Market Update
  • IEA Natural Gas Market Report - September 2026
  • Rystad Energy: Rising Costs in US Shale Gas Drilling July 2026
  • Platts LNG Asia Demand Outlook September 2026
  • Reuters: Russian Gas Output Constraints Weigh on European Prices August 2026

    • Coking Coal 1,950.00 (CNY/MT)

  • Coking coal prices in late Q3 2026 have moderated slightly following a peak in July, pressured by easing steel production in China amid slowing demand and inventory builds at key ports. Supply-side constraints persist due to Australian weather disruptions and Indonesian export policy uncertainties, supporting price support above $300/tonne. However, risks remain from potential demand softness if global economic growth falters and from increased mining output ramp-ups expected in late 2026.
  • China Steel Output Dips, Pressuring Coking Coal Prices
  • Australian Weather Disruptions Maintain Supply Tightness for Coking Coal
  • Indonesian Export Policy Adds Uncertainty to Coking Coal Market
  • Steelmakers Adjust Production, Impacting Coking Coal Demand
  • Coking coal market in Q3 2026 shows tightening supply due to lower production in Australia and Mongolia amid regulatory restrictions and operational disruptions. Demand from global steelmakers remains firm with moderate restocking ahead of winter boosting consumption. Price volatility risks persist from geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes and Chinese policy shifts potentially slowing demand recovery. Inventory drawdowns in key import hubs underscore tightening fundamentals but sustainable balance depends on supply responses in late 2026.
  • August 2026 Coking Coal Market Quarterly Report
  • Australian Coking Coal Production Slides in H2 2026
  • China Steel Demand and Metallurgical Coal Imports — August Insights
  • Physical Coal Market Update: Mongolian Supply Constraints
  • Shipping Delays Compound Supply Tightening – Maritime Journal September 2026
  • As of mid-2026, coking coal cost curves show upward pressure driven primarily by tighter supply from Indonesian export restrictions and elevated freight costs. Supply-side constraints have shifted the global marginal cost higher, particularly impacting Australian low-cost producers who have tightened production amid regulatory and environmental scrutiny. Demand from steelmakers in China and India remains robust, sustaining price support. A significant risk is the possibility of demand softening due to steel production cuts prompted by global economic slowdown concerns, which could destabilize the current cost curve dynamics.
  • August 2026 Australian Coking Coal Market Report
  • International Energy Agency Coal Market Review, July 2026
  • Platts Steel and Coking Coal Weekly, September 1, 2026
  • World Bank Commodities Price Forecast, Mid-2026 Update
  • China Steel Industry Association Quarterly Outlook Q3 2026

    • Gold 4,429.98 (USD/t oz.)

  • As of early September 2026, gold prices have edged higher, supported primarily by rising geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns that maintain safe-haven demand. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish tilt, indicated in its August meeting minutes, has also buoyed bullion by tempering real yield expectations. However, the ongoing strength of the US dollar and improving risk appetite in equity markets constrain upside momentum and pose notable risks to sustained gold price gains.
  • August 2026 FOMC Minutes Highlight Dovish Shift
  • Gold Prices Rise Amid Geopolitical Strains and Inflation Worries
  • US Dollar Strength Caps Gold Rally Despite Safe-Haven Demand
  • World Gold Council August 2026 Investment Demand Update
  • Gold supply-demand dynamics as of mid-2026 show a moderate tightening driven by constrained mine output amid rising production costs and sustained investment demand, especially from central banks and ETFs. Jewelry demand remains stable but subdued due to mixed consumer sentiment in key markets. Recycling supply has increased slightly, partially offsetting lower mine yields. Key risks include potential volatility in interest rates impacting investment demand and geopolitical tensions influencing safe-haven flows.
  • World Gold Council Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends
  • GFMS Gold Mine Supply Update July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Gold ETF Holdings Rise Despite Hawkish Fed, Aug 2026
  • USGS Mineral Commodity Summary: Gold, 2026 Edition
  • Reuters: Jewelry Demand Steady in India and China, Sept 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the gold cost curve reflects rising input costs, notably energy and labor, pushing average production costs higher across global mining operations. Industry leaders report increasing pressure to optimize operations amid tightening ore grades and metallurgical complexities. Meanwhile, elevated geopolitical tensions and central bank buying spur demand, supporting prices despite rising costs. A key uncertainty remains potential shifts in global monetary policy that could affect gold’s safe-haven appeal and thus influence miners' pricing power and investment in higher-cost projects.
  • World Gold Council Q2 2026 Mine Production Report
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Gold Cost Curve Update August 2026
  • Barrick Gold 2026 H1 Production and Cost Results
  • Kitco News: Gold Mining Costs Rise With Energy Prices – Sept 2026
  • International Monetary Fund Staff Report on Gold and Monetary Policy, July 2026

    • Silver 66.75 (USD/t oz.)

  • Silver prices have declined moderately since mid-2026, pressured primarily by strengthening US dollar and rising real bond yields that increase opportunity costs of holding non-yielding precious metals. Industrial demand from electronics and solar sectors remains stable but has not offset weaker investment demand amid global rate normalization. Key uncertainty lies in potential shifts in monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, which could spur safe-haven buying and volatility in silver markets in upcoming months.
  • Silver Prices Edge Lower on Strong Dollar, Economic Data
  • World Silver Survey 2026 – Supply-Demand Review
  • FOMC Minutes August 2026 – Impact on Precious Metals
  • Industrial Silver Demand Steady Amid Global Slowdown
  • Silver supply contracts slightly in mid-2026 amid ongoing mine disruptions and lower recycling rates, while industrial demand, particularly from electronics and solar sectors, remains robust. The continuation of green energy policies globally supports strong photovoltaic-related silver consumption. However, macroeconomic uncertainty and potential monetary policy shifts pose risks to investment demand, creating volatility in supply-demand balance and price direction in late 2026.
  • Silver Market Review Q2 2026 by Silver Institute
  • World Silver Survey 2026 Executive Summary
  • Industrial Silver Demand Sustains Growth in H1 2026 – Metals Focus
  • Silver Prices React to Economic Uncertainty in August 2026 - Reuters
  • Global Silver Recycling Trends and Impact on Supply - CRU Group, July 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the silver cost curve shows upward pressure driven primarily by rising energy costs and geopolitical disruption in key mining regions, notably in South America. Higher operational expenses have pushed several higher-cost producers closer to breakeven, tightening overall supply flexibility. Demand remains steady from industrial and investment sectors, but growing uncertainty around global economic slowdown and potential monetary tightening threaten to weigh on price momentum and miners’ margins going forward.
  • August 2026 Silver Market Report - CPM Group
  • Silver Mining Cost Update Q2 2026 - Metals Focus
  • Global Silver Supply-Demand and Cost Curve Review - World Silver Survey 2026
  • Energy Prices Pressure Silver Production Costs - S&P Global Commodity Insights, July 2026
  • Silver Cost Curves Tighten Amid Inflation and Supply Risks - Bloomberg, August 2026

    • Platinum 1,822.35 (USD/t oz.)

  • Platinum prices have softened in early September 2026 amid slowing demand from the automotive sector due to moderating lithium-ion battery shifts and concerns about global economic growth. Supply disruptions in South Africa remain limited with output recovering after recent labor negotiations. Market participants are eyeing potential shifts in hydrogen fuel cell adoption as a key medium-term driver, but elevated macroeconomic uncertainty, including tighter monetary conditions globally, poses downside risk to industrial demand and investment in new supply.
  • Platinum Settles Lower Amid Demand Worries, September 2026
  • Anglo American Reports Solid Q2 2026 Platinum Output Post-Labor Disputes
  • World Platinum Investment Council H2 2026 Market Outlook
  • Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trends and Platinum Demand, Bloomberg Commodities, August 2026
  • Platinum supply in mid-2026 showed modest growth primarily due to output improvements in South Africa, offset by ongoing labor disruptions and mine expansions delays. Demand remains firm, driven by expansion in automotive catalytic converters amid tightening emissions standards and increasing fuel cell applications. However, uncertainties include potential slowdown in global auto sales and geopolitical tensions affecting South African exports, which collectively pose risks to supply-demand balance and price stability.
  • Mid-Year 2026 Platinum Market Report – WGC
  • 2026 Platinum Market Outlook – Johnson Matthey, August 2026
  • South African Mining Production Update, July 2026 – Stats — SA
  • Platinum Group Metals Quarterly Insights – SFA Oxford, Q2 2026
  • Automotive Catalysts Drive Platinum Demand – Reuters, July 31 2026
  • As of August 2026, the platinum cost curve reflects moderate upward shifts due to rising input costs, particularly energy and labor in South African mines, which dominate production. This has pressured global supply tightness amid steady automotive and industrial demand for platinum group metals. Key downside risk remains regulatory constraints on mining operations and potential technological substitution in catalytic applications, which could compress producer margins if demand softens or costs rise further.
  • Sibanye-Stillwater Q2 2026 Production and Cost Performance
  • Anglo American Platinum August 2026 Quarterly Report
  • Benchmark Mineral Intelligence: Platinum Market Report August 2026
  • Johnson Matthey Financial Results H1 2026: Cost Pressures in PGM
  • Reuters: Rising Costs Squeeze Platinum Producers Amid Demand Stability, August 2026

    • Palladium 1,392.00 (USD/t oz.)

  • Palladium prices have edged lower through August 2026 amid weakening automotive demand and a rise in Russian palladium exports following eased export restrictions. The recent mild price decline reflects subdued industrial demand, particularly from the auto catalyst sector, compounded by inventory normalization after the mid-year rally. Key risk remains potential tightening of environmental regulations in major markets like China and Europe, which could rapidly accelerate palladium demand and reverse the current downtrend.
  • Sibanye-Stillwater Q2 2026 Palladium Market Update
  • Johnson Matthey 2026 Mid-Year Industrial Metals Review
  • Metal Bulletin: Palladium Slips on Weaker Auto Demand, Aug 2026
  • Reuters: Russia Boosts Palladium Exports as Sanctions Ease, Aug 2026
  • As of Q2 2026, global palladium supply has tightened due to ongoing production constraints in key mining regions, notably Russia and South Africa, while auto industry demand for catalytic converters remains robust despite electric vehicle growth, sustaining strong physical demand. Recycling efforts have slightly increased but have not offset primary supply deficits. Key downside risks include potential changes in auto emissions regulations and geopolitical tensions impacting Russian output, which could exacerbate supply shortages and price volatility in H2 2026.
  • Johnson Matthey Q2 2026 Palladium Market Update
  • Sibanye Stillwater Q2 2026 Production Report
  • ICSG World Palladium Supply-Demand Statistics H1 2026
  • Reuters: Global Palladium Supply Constraints Support Price Gains, Sept 1 2026
  • Bloomberg: Auto Emission Policy Uncertainty Clouds Palladium Demand, Aug 28 2026
  • As of Q3 2026, palladium's cost curve reflects rising input costs and tighter supply primarily driven by declining mine output in Russia and South Africa. Elevated energy and labor expenses have shifted many producers closer to breakeven levels, raising concerns over supply shortfalls in the near term. Meanwhile, demand from automotive catalytic converters remains stable, but increased recycling efforts and substitution risks constrain upside price pressure. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes in key mining jurisdictions represent key uncertainties impacting future production costs.
  • Sibanye Stillwater Q2 2026 Palladium Cost Update
  • Impala Platinum Q2 2026 Production & Cost Summary
  • Johnson Matthey 2026 Mid-Year Platinum Group Metals Market Report
  • Benchmark Minerals Intelligence: Palladium Cost Curve Dynamics, August 2026
  • Reuters: Palladium Supplies Tighten Amid Elevated Costs and Geopolitical Risks

    • Copper 6.68 (USd/lb.)

  • Copper prices in early September 2026 have shown moderate gains, supported by tightening supply conditions due to ongoing strikes at key Chilean and Peruvian mines. Demand remains resilient as Chinese infrastructure stimulus offsets weaker growth elsewhere. However, upward momentum is curbed by recession fears in major consuming regions and rising inventories in Asian warehouses, creating uncertainty about near-term price sustainability.
  • Copper Prices Edge Higher on Supply Disruptions
  • Chile Mine Strikes Tighten Copper Market, Boosting Prices
  • China's Stimulus Supports Copper Demand Amid Global Slowdown
  • Inventory Build in Asian Warehouses Caps Copper Price Gains
  • As of early September 2026, copper supply tightness persists amid slower mine output growth and ongoing disruptions in key producing regions such as Chile and the DRC. Demand remains resilient driven by expanding electrification and infrastructure investment, but higher costs and geopolitical risks introduce uncertainty around project expansions. Inventory levels remain at historically low ranges, signaling continued market stress and potential price volatility if supply does not respond promptly.
  • ICSG Copper Market Report August 2026
  • Chile Copper Output Down 2.5% Y/Y in July 2026 – Cochilco
  • DRC Mining Supply Disruptions Continue to Impact Copper Production, Reuters, August 2026
  • World Bank Commodities Forecast Report September 2026: Copper Market Dynamics
  • Copper Inventories at Multi-Year Lows, S&P Global Platts, September 2, 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the copper cost curve reflects upward pressure driven by higher energy and labor expenses impacting mining operations globally, particularly in Chile and Peru. Despite moderate easing in global demand growth forecasts, sustained inflation in input costs has pushed some marginal producers closer to breakeven. Key risk remains from potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in key mining regions and energy price volatility, which could further steepen the cost curve and tighten physical markets.
  • CRU Group Copper Cost Curve Report August 2026
  • International Copper Study Group Monthly Report August 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Copper Mining Cost Pressures in H2 2026
  • BHP’s Q3 2026 Production and Cost Update
  • Reuters Report on Copper Producers’ Margin Compression September 2026

    • 3Mo Aluminum 3,293.50 (USD/MT)

  • As of early September 2026, 3-month aluminum prices have shown moderate gains driven by tightening global supply amid extended maintenance in key producers and heightened demand from the electric vehicle sector. LME inventories remain near 3-year lows, exacerbating upward pressure. However, price upside is constrained by potential demand slowdowns linked to broader macroeconomic uncertainty and the risk of new energy policy interventions affecting smelter operations.
  • LME Aluminum Prices and Inventories Report August 2026
  • International Aluminum Institute July 2026 Production Update
  • Reuters: Aluminum Prices Rise on Supply Concerns, EV Demand – August 2026
  • Bloomberg: Aluminum Market Faces Risks Amid Global Demand Uncertainty – Aug 2026
  • In Q3 2026, global aluminum supply showed moderate growth driven by increased output from Chinese and Middle Eastern producers recovering post-maintenance and curtailed policies. Demand remains robust amid transportation and packaging sectors expanding, though growth faces risks from possible U.S. and EU energy cost hikes, potentially pressuring production costs. Inventory levels have modestly declined, tightening spreads and supporting price stability, but geopolitical tensions could disrupt key supply chains, posing upside risks to market tightness.
  • International Aluminum Institute Q3 2026 Market Report
  • LME Aluminum Inventory and Flow Analysis August 2026
  • Bloomberg: Aluminum Supply Tightens on Energy Costs in 2026
  • CRU: Q3 2026 Aluminum Demand Growth Slows Amid Trade Uncertainty
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Aluminum Market Risks from Middle East Geopolitics
  • As of early September 2026, the 3-month aluminum cost curve is broadly shaped by persistent energy price volatility and tight alumina supplies, which have elevated production costs for smelters at the margin. Elevated hydroelectric power costs in key producing regions have increased smelting costs, pushing the cost curve higher. Downside risks include potential demand contraction from Chinese manufacturing slowdown, while upside constraints center on supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions in bauxite-rich areas.
  • LME September 2026 Aluminum Cost Curve Update
  • International Aluminium Institute Q3 2026 Cost and Production Report
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Aluminum Cost Curves and Margin Pressure - Aug 2026
  • Fastmarkets: Aluminium Production Costs and Market Outlook, September 2026
  • Metal Bulletin: Geopolitical Risks Tighten Aluminum Market Cost Base - August 2026

    • 3Mo Zinc 3,946.00 (USD/MT)

  • As of early September 2026, 3-month zinc prices have edged down modestly following robust gains in July and August, driven primarily by renewed concerns over slowing Chinese industrial output and weakening demand from the automotive sector. Inventory data from the LME shows slight increases in on-warrant stocks, signaling easing tightness. However, ongoing supply disruptions in top producers like Peru and planned maintenance at key smelters continue to underpin prices. Key risks include demand volatility linked to global recession fears and possible shifts in global trade policies affecting metal flows.
  • LME Zinc Market Report August 2026
  • Fastmarkets Zinc Outlook September 2026
  • ICSG Monthly Metal Statistics August 2026
  • Reuters: Zinc Prices Hit Pressure on Weak Chinese Demand
  • In the three months through August 2026, zinc supply tightened due to unexpected disruptions in key mines in Australia and Kazakhstan, reducing global output by approximately 4%. At the same time, demand from construction and automotive sectors in China showed resilience despite broader industrial slowdown, sustaining elevated consumption. LME warehouse inventories fell to a 5-year low, supporting recent price gains. However, uncertainty remains around potential Chinese policy stimulus and miners’ capacity expansion plans in Q4, which could alleviate supply constraints or exacerbate imbalances.
  • LME Zinc Market Report August 2026
  • International Lead and Zinc Study Group - Monthly Market Report August 2026
  • Glencore Q2 2026 Production Update: Zinc Output Disrupted
  • Reuters: Zinc Prices Rise on Tightening Supply and Robust Chinese Demand - Sept 1 2026
  • CRU Zinc Market Outlook Q3 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the 3-month zinc cost curve reflects tightening supply amid rising energy and labor costs impacting smelting operations, pushing the marginal cost of zinc production upward. Elevated global demand, especially from East Asian manufacturing hubs, underpins the uptrend, while inventories on the LME remain near multi-year lows, adding upward price pressure. Key risks include potential output disruptions from environmental regulations tightening in major producing regions and volatility in energy prices, which could sharply shift the cost curve dynamics.
  • CRU Zinc Market Outlook August 2026
  • International Lead and Zinc Study Group: Monthly Bulletin August 2026
  • LME Zinc Prices & Inventory Summary September 2026
  • Glencore Q2 2026 Production Report
  • Reuters: Zinc supply tightens on stricter mining curbs in China, Aug 2026

    • 3Mo Tin 54,866.00 (USD/MT)

  • As of early September 2026, 3-month tin prices have moderated slightly from a mid-2026 peak, pressured by easing supply tightness as major producing countries increased output and scrap recycling rose. Demand from global electronics and EV markets remains robust but growth is slowing amid broader industrial cooling and elevated interest rates. Key risk is potential new trade restrictions or geopolitical tensions impacting Southeast Asian production hubs, which could tighten supply again and prompt price volatility.
  • International Tin Association August 2026 Market Report
  • LME Tin Price and Inventory Data – September 2026
  • Reuters: Tin Prices Steady as Supply Improves but Demand Slows – Sep 2026
  • Bloomberg: Southeast Asia’s Tin Output Growth Eases Price Pressure
  • In Q3 2026, global tin supply has tightened modestly due to artisanal mining disruptions in key Southeast Asian sources and lower output from major smelters facing energy cost pressures. Demand remains robust, driven by increased usage in electronics and emerging battery technologies. However, recent government export restrictions from Indonesia present an upside risk to supply constraints, potentially lifting tin prices further if prolonged beyond Q3. Inventories have drawn down slightly but remain adequate, limiting near-term volatility.
  • International Tin Association Q3 Supply-Demand Report 2026
  • Indonesian Mineral Regulatory Update Impacting Tin Exports, Aug 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Tin Market Tightness and Price Outlook, Sep 2026
  • CRU Group: Tin Production Trends and Battery Demand Analysis, Jul 2026
  • LME Tin Inventory Data Overview, September 2026
  • As of September 2026, the 3-month tin cost curve reflects moderate upward pressure driven by rising energy costs and tighter environmental regulations in Southeast Asian smelters, which account for a significant share of global supply. Ore feedstock scarcity has increased processing costs, further steepening the curve. However, ongoing substitution risks from alternative materials in electronics and the potential easing of geopolitical tensions affecting raw material flows present uncertainties for near-term cost dynamics.
  • International Tin Association: Q3 2026 Tin Cost Curve Update
  • CRU Group: Tin Market and Cost Outlook September 2026
  • Metal Bulletin: Southeast Asia Energy Costs Impact Global Tin Production
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Tin Supply Chain Trends, August 2026

    • Nickel 16,846.00 (USD/MT)

  • Nickel prices edged higher in late August 2026 amid continued strong demand from electric vehicle battery manufacturers and constrained supply due to extended labor disputes in key Indonesian and Philippine mines. Inventories on the LME remain tight, supporting prices above the $25,000/tonne level. However, market participants remain cautious as new Indonesian export policy revisions and potential shifts in China’s industrial output pose downside risks to near-term price momentum.
  • LME Nickel Inventory and Price Update August 2026
  • Indonesia Revises Nickel Export Rules, Impacting Supply Chain
  • Electric Vehicle Demand Drives Nickel Prices Amid Supply Constraints
  • Philippine Mining Strikes Extend Nickel Supply Tightness
  • Nickel markets in mid-2026 are characterized by tightening supply amid ongoing environmental regulations tightening in Indonesia, the largest nickel producer, and disruptions from labor disputes in the Philippines. Demand remains robust, driven primarily by sustained growth in EV battery production and stainless steel manufacturing. However, emerging low-grade ore stockpiles and increasing recycling capacity are exerting some downward pressure on supply tightness. Key uncertainty lies in geopolitical developments affecting logistics and Indonesian export policies that could reshape global nickel flows in H2 2026.
  • International Nickel Study Group August 2026 Market Report
  • Indonesian Ministry of Energy: Mid-Year 2026 Nickel Production Update
  • Bloomberg – Nickel Supply Tightening on Indonesian Export Curbs and Labor Issues
  • CRU Group Nickel Market Outlook Q3 2026
  • Reuters – Global Nickel Demand Boosted by EVs Despite Supply Risks
  • As of early September 2026, the nickel cost curve shows upward pressure driven by rising energy prices and stricter environmental regulations raising production costs at lower-tier mines. The cost increases primarily impact later-stage producers reliant on fossil fuels, while high-grade laterite and sulfide complexes remain comparatively more economical. A key uncertainty is geopolitical tensions affecting Indonesian export policies, potentially distorting supply and elevating global nickel prices further, amplifying cost curve volatility.
  • International Nickel Study Group August 2026 Report
  • LME Nickel Price and Inventory Update - LME, Sep 3, 2026
  • Wood Mackenzie Nickel Market Outlook Q3 2026
  • Reuters: Indonesian Export Policy Impact on Nickel Supply, Aug 2026
  • Bloomberg: Rising Energy Costs Drive Nickel Producer Margins Pressure, Sep 2026

    • Steel 596.00 (USD/MT)

  • Steel prices in early September 2026 have moderated following a summer peak driven by robust infrastructure demand in Asia and supply constraints due to ongoing metallurgical coal shortages. Inventory restocking in China remains a key driver, with policymakers emphasizing sustainability and production caps to manage emissions. Price upside is constrained by potential weakening global manufacturing growth and risks from trade policy uncertainties affecting export flows.
  • China Steel Prices Retreat as Demand Growth Slows
  • World Steel Association August 2026 Market Report
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Steel Market Snapshot September 2026
  • Bloomberg: Metallurgical Coal Tightness Pushes Steel Prices Higher
  • As of early September 2026, global steel supply is tightening amid reduced output growth in major producers like China and India, driven by stricter environmental regulations and capacity consolidation. Demand remains steady, supported by resilient construction activity in Asia and infrastructure spending in the US, though elevated energy costs pose a margin risk. Inventory drawdowns have tightened market balances, increasing near-term price volatility and exposing supply chains to disruptions from evolving geopolitical tensions.
  • World Steel Association August 2026 Production & Demand Report
  • China’s Steel Output Growth Slows on New Environmental Rules
  • India Steelmakers Face Capacity Rationalization Amid Demand Shifts
  • US Infrastructure Spending Sustains Steel Demand Despite Energy Cost Pressures
  • Steel Inventory Levels Tighten Globally, Market Faces Supply Chain Risks
  • As of early September 2026, steel production costs remain elevated due to persistent raw material price inflation, especially iron ore and coking coal, driven by supply constraints from key exporters amid geopolitical tensions. Energy prices, particularly natural gas used in blast furnaces, have also pushed the steel cost curve higher. However, weakening demand from key sectors such as automotive and construction risks margin compression for higher-cost producers. A key uncertainty remains the trajectory of Chinese steel output policies and environmental regulations, which could reshape global cost curves and affect competitive positioning.
  • Iron Ore and Coal Price Trends Pressure Steel Costs
  • Global Steel Market Outlook: Cost Dynamics and Demand Risks - August 2026
  • Energy Price Volatility Drives Steel Production Expenses Higher
  • China's 2026 Steel Production Policies and Market Impact
  • Steel Cost Curve Analysis: Effects of Supply Chain Disruptions and Environmental Rules

    • Corn 5.37 (USd/bu.)

  • Corn prices have edged higher in early September 2026, driven by tighter U.S. supply expectations amid delayed harvest progress and persistent yield concerns following a late-season drought in key Midwest growing regions. Meanwhile, global demand remains robust, particularly from biofuel and feed sectors, limiting downward pressure. Key risks include the potential for improved weather conditions that could boost yield forecasts or geopolitical tensions affecting grain exports, notably from major exporters like Ukraine and Brazil.
  • USDA Crop Progress Report - September 2026
  • September 2026 Corn Market Outlook - USDA WASDE
  • Corn Futures Climb on Supply Concerns and Demand Revival
  • Global Grain Supply Risks Amid Geopolitical Strains - Bloomberg
  • As of early September 2026, U.S. corn supply-demand fundamentals show tightening stocks driven by slightly lower-than-expected yields amid regional dryness reported in August. Strong domestic and export demand, particularly from ethanol production and Asia-Pacific buyers, sustains price support. However, wetter forecasts ahead for Midwest growing areas pose uncertainty for late-season crop conditions, which could influence final production estimates and inventory carryover into 2027. Market watchers remain cautious of potential weather disruptions and global geopolitical tensions impacting export logistics.
  • USDA September 2026 Crop Production and WASDE Report
  • USDA Grain Stocks Report August 2026
  • CME Group Daily Corn Market Commentary, September 2026
  • FAO Food Outlook September 2026: Cereals Supply and Demand
  • Bloomberg: Corn Prices Supported by Tight U.S. Stocks and Export Demand
  • As of early September 2026, corn cost curves show upward pressure driven primarily by rising input costs—especially fertilizer and energy—as inflation remains elevated globally. While US carryover stocks remain ample, tighter planting intentions due to Midwest weather challenges are shifting the marginal cost curve upwards. Key risks include volatility from potential La Niña persistence affecting yields and evolving export demand from China and the EU, which could recalibrate production economics and influence producers' cost thresholds.
  • USDA Crop Production Report August 2026
  • Fertilizer Prices and Input Costs | International Fertilizer Association August 2026
  • Corn Production Costs and Margins in Q3 2026 — Farm Journal
  • BNN Bloomberg: Commodity Cost Curves and Grain Market Outlook September 2026
  • USDA WASDE Report September 2026

    • Wheat 7.34 (USd/bu.)

  • Wheat prices in early September 2026 have eased moderately following harvest results indicating larger-than-expected yields in major exporting countries, notably Australia and Russia. The improved supply outlook offsets concerns around persistent dry conditions in parts of the US Midwest. Market attention now focuses on potential export restrictions in Eastern Europe amid geopolitical tensions, representing a key uncertainty that could tighten supply balances later this year.
  • USDA Crop Progress Report September 2026
  • International Grains Council Monthly Market Report August 2026
  • Russia Wheat Exports Face New Curbs – Reuters, September 2026
  • Australian Wheat Harvest Beats Expectations – Bloomberg, September 2026
  • As of early September 2026, global wheat supply tightness is highlighted by reduced output in major exporters including the EU and Canada due to adverse weather conditions in their 2026 harvests. Despite strong demand recovery from Asia and North Africa, world ending stocks are projected to remain near multi-year lows. The main risk is geopolitical uncertainty around Black Sea logistics, which if disrupted further could intensify supply shortages and price volatility heading into 2026-27 marketing year.
  • USDA WASDE Report August 2026
  • International Grains Council Grain Market Report September 2026
  • FAO Wheat Production and Stocks Outlook August 2026
  • Reuters: Weather Hits Canadian, EU Wheat Crops in 2026
  • Bloomberg: Black Sea Grain Shipment Uncertainty Looms Over Wheat Trade
  • As of early September 2026, the global wheat cost curve shows a notable upward shift driven by rising input costs—particularly fertilizer and energy prices—and ongoing disruptions in Black Sea export volumes. Lower yields in key producers like Canada and Australia have also tightened supply. The cost curve steepness suggests higher marginal production costs at several mid-tier producers. Key risks include potential weather shocks in the US Midwest and shifts in export policies from Russia and Ukraine, which could further distort supply and cost dynamics.
  • USDA Sept 2026 Wheat Supply and Demand Report
  • International Grains Council Wheat Market Report, August 2026
  • Rabobank Review: Wheat Cost Curves and Supply Constraints Q3 2026
  • ICARDA Analysis: Fertilizer Prices and Wheat Marginal Costs 2026
  • Bloomberg Commodities Briefing: Wheat Prices and Input Cost Pressures, Sept 2026

    • Oats 2.95 (USd/bu.)

  • Oats prices have retreating modestly in August 2026 following a strong rally earlier in the summer, driven primarily by improved prospects for production in key Northern Hemisphere growing regions, notably Canada and the U.S. USDA's August Crop Report indicated better-than-expected yields, easing supply concerns. However, tight exportable supplies from Black Sea producers due to ongoing regional instability continue to pose a risk to global availability and price volatility into the fall, especially amid steady feed demand from livestock sectors.
  • USDA August 2026 Oats Crop Report
  • Oats Prices Ease on Stronger Crop Outlook - Reuters August 2026
  • Black Sea Export Constraints Pressure Oats Market - Bloomberg Commodities August 2026
  • International Grain Council July 2026 Report on Cereals
  • As of early September 2026, global oat supply remains tight due to adverse weather conditions in major growing regions, notably in North America and Northern Europe, which have reduced yields. Demand has firmed, driven by expanding usage in plant-based products and health-conscious consumer trends. However, rising input costs and potential trade disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions pose a key risk to supply chain stability and price volatility in the coming months.
  • USDA September 2026 Oats Supply-Demand Report
  • Canada Grain Commission August 2026 Oat Production Update
  • European Commission Agri-Food Outlook September 2026
  • Reuters: Oat Supplies Tighten Amid Weather Risks, Demand Growth
  • Bloomberg: Oat Price Volatility Seen from Trade and Weather Uncertainty
  • As of late summer 2026, the oats cost curve indicates a moderate tightening driven by rising input costs, notably fertilizer and labor, alongside adverse weather patterns in key producing regions such as North America and parts of Europe. This has elevated marginal production costs, pushing smaller, higher-cost producers closer to breakeven thresholds. The main uncertainty lies in potential yield recovery in the upcoming harvest amid continuing climate variability, which could soften or accentuate current cost pressures and price volatility.
  • USDA September 2026 Grain Cost and Returns Report
  • Canadian Oats Cost Dynamics Q3 2026 - Agri — Invest
  • Global Oats Market Update - Rabobank Commodity Insights August 2026
  • Agricultural Input Prices and Impact on Oat Production - FAO Report July 2026
  • Oat Crop Conditions and Cost Pressures, European Commission DG AGRI, August 2026

    • Rough Rice 15.87 (USD/cwt)

  • Rough rice prices have edged slightly higher in early September 2026, driven primarily by tightening supply amid delayed harvests in key producing regions like the U.S. and Southeast Asia due to unseasonably wet weather in August. Demand remains steady from both domestic processors and export markets, particularly in Asia and Africa. However, risks persist from potential further logistic bottlenecks and volatile weather forecasts heading into the fall, which could either constrain supply further or ease but introduce uncertainty for price direction.
  • USDA August 2026 Rice Outlook
  • September 2026 CBOT Rough Rice Futures Update
  • FAO Monthly Food Commodity Price Report, August 2026
  • Reuters: Weather Delays Impact Southeast Asia Rice Output, Sep 2, 2026
  • As of early September 2026, US rough rice supply is projected to be steady with a slight contraction in production driven by adverse weather conditions in key southern rice-growing states. Domestic consumption remains stable, supported by consistent food and industrial use, while export demand has softened amid competitive global supplies, particularly from India and Vietnam. Inventory levels are expected to tighten moderately through the marketing year, with price volatility hinging on late-season weather developments and global trade policy uncertainty, especially tariff negotiations involving major importers.
  • USDA September 2026 Rice Outlook
  • USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service August 2026 Crop Report
  • FAO Food Outlook August 2026 - Rice Market Developments
  • Reuters: Global Rough Rice Supply-Demand Dynamics Tighten
  • International Grains Council Grain Market Report July 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the rough rice cost curve indicates a modest shift upward driven mainly by higher input costs, including fertilizer and energy. Production increases in key exporters like the US and India have somewhat cushioned price pressures, but rising global demand from Southeast Asia and African markets tightens margins on lower-quality outputs. Weather variability and potential export restrictions from major suppliers remain critical risks that could steepen the cost curve, affecting supply elasticity and pricing.
  • USDA August 2026 Rice Outlook Report
  • International Rice Research Institute 2026 Market Update
  • FAO Food Price Index September 2026
  • Reuters: Rising Input Costs Lift Rough Rice Production Expenses - Sep 2026

    • Soybean 10.24 (USd/bu.)

  • Soybean prices in early September 2026 have edged higher amid tightening global supplies following a reported slowdown in South American harvest progress, notably in Brazil due to intermittent dry spells. US export demand remains firm, especially from China, sustaining upward pressure. However, lingering uncertainties persist around US crop yields ahead of the final harvest and ongoing geopolitical trade tensions that could disrupt global trade flows, posing risks to sustained price gains.
  • USDA Crop Progress & Outlook – August 2026
  • Brazil Crop Update: Dry Weather Impact on Soybean – Agri — Mar 2026
  • Soybean Export Demand and Trade Flows – USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, August 2026
  • Geopolitical Risks Cloud Soybean Market Outlook – Reuters, September 2, 2026
  • As of early September 2026, global soybean supply is tightening due to reduced South American output, primarily from adverse weather in Brazil and Argentina. U.S. soybean production remains steady but not sufficient to offset export demand growth, especially from China, maintaining firm price support. The key risk is potential production disruptions from evolving weather in the U.S. Midwest and geopolitical trade shifts that could alter demand patterns.
  • USDA September 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
  • Brazil Soybean Crop Outlook and Impact on Global Supply – CONAB Report August 2026
  • Argentina Weather-Induced Crop Challenges Pressured Soybean Exports – Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, August 2026
  • China’s Soybean Import Trends in H1 2026 and Outlook – China Ministry of Agriculture
  • Soybean Market Risks from U.S. Weather Variability and Trade Policies – Reuters Analysis Sept 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the soybean cost curve has shifted upwards due to rising input costs, notably fertilizer and energy prices, coupled with weather-related supply disruptions in key producing regions like Brazil and the U.S. Midwest. These factors have concentrated production within higher-cost tiers, reducing the price competitiveness of marginal producers. A key risk to the cost structure remains the uncertainty surrounding global demand, especially China’s import appetite amid evolving trade policies and macroeconomic slowdowns.
  • USDA Crop Production September 2026 Report
  • FAO Agricultural Market Review August 2026
  • Bloomberg: Soybeans Supply Tightness Pushes Cost Curve Upward
  • CME Group: Soybean Futures and Cost Analytics August 2026
  • Reuters: China’s Import Demand Clouding Soybean Market Outlook

    • Canola 822.50 (CAD/MT)

  • As of early September 2026, canola prices have edged higher, supported by tightening global stocks and lower-than-expected Canadian harvest yields amid adverse weather. Export demand from Asia remains robust, sustaining upward pressure. Key risks include potential easing of weather constraints improving crop prospects and geopolitical developments affecting trade flows, which could temper price gains.
  • September 2026 Canadian Canola Supply and Demand Outlook
  • Fluctuations in Global Canola Stocks Tighten Market – International Grain Council Report, August 2026
  • Weather Impacts on Canadian Canola Crop Underline Price Volatility
  • Asian Demand Bolsters Canola Exports in Mid-2026
  • As of early September 2026, global canola supply tightness is evident due to smaller Canadian and European harvests amid adverse weather, constraining export volumes. Demand remains robust, driven by growing biofuel mandates in the EU and steady feedstock needs in Asia, supporting strong international prices. Key risks include unpredictable North American weather in the upcoming planting season and potential shifts in global vegetable oil demand due to emerging energy alternatives or trade policy adjustments.
  • USDA September 2026 Oilseeds Outlook
  • Canada Canola Industry Update, August 2026
  • International Grains Council - Oilseeds Market Report September 2026
  • Reuters: Canola Prices Firm on Tight Supplies, Biofuel Demand
  • European Commission Agriculture Market Brief – September 2026
  • As of late August 2026, the global canola cost curve indicates moderate upward pressure on production costs, driven primarily by rising fertilizer prices and tighter labor markets in key exporting regions like Canada and Australia. Despite favorable weather supporting yields, input cost inflation has compressed producer margins, particularly for higher-cost producers at the margin. Key risks include potential shifts in trade policies and energy market volatility, which could exacerbate cost uncertainties and affect global canola supply dynamics.
  • August 2026 Canadian Canola Production Report
  • International Fertilizer Association Fertilizer Price Update August 2026
  • USDA Oilseeds Outlook, August 2026
  • Rabobank Global Canola Cost Curve Analysis July 2026
  • Bloomberg Commodities: Canola Input Costs Rise, August 2026

    • Cocoa 6,188.00 (USD/MT)

  • Cocoa prices have stabilized around mid-September 2026 after a sharp rally in Q2 driven by unexpected output declines in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana due to adverse weather and pest issues. Supply-side concerns remain the main driver, with ongoing dry conditions limiting harvest volumes. Demand from Asian and European confectionery sectors supports firm pricing, though elevated global inventory levels and potential easing of weather disruptions pose downside risks to prices.
  • ICCO Cocoa Market Report August 2026
  • Cocoa Output Drops in West Africa Amid Climate Challenges - Reuters Sep 2026
  • Global Cocoa Inventory Trends and Price Outlook, September 2026 - Bloomberg
  • WFP Market Monitor Notes Cocoa Price Stability Despite Harvest Disruptions
  • As of early September 2026, global cocoa supply is tightening due to adverse weather conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the top producers, leading to a reduced 2026/27 crop estimate. Demand remains resilient, particularly from Asian markets, sustaining price support. However, risks persist with potential labor shortages and geopolitical tensions affecting West African trade routes, which could exacerbate supply constraints and increase market volatility.
  • ICC Quarterly Market Report August 2026
  • Cocoa Production Outlook Tightens on West African Weather
  • World Cocoa Foundation 2026 Mid-Year Supply-Demand Review
  • FAO Report on West African Crop Conditions – August 2026
  • Bloomberg: Cocoa Prices Supported By Firm Asian Demand
  • As of early September 2026, the global cocoa cost curve shows upward pressure on marginal supply costs driven by rising labor expenses in West African producers and persistent climate-related yield volatility. Ivory Coast and Ghana continue to dominate output but face growing production cost inflation due to wage hikes and sustainability compliance. This dynamic compresses lower-cost supply tiers, shifting the cost curve upward. Key risks include escalating input costs and potential adverse weather disrupting harvest volumes, which could tighten global supply further and exacerbate price volatility.
  • 2026 Cocoa Market Outlook – ICCO Quarterly Bulletin Q2 2026
  • West African Cocoa Production Costs Rise Amid Labor Inflation, Rabobank Report July 2026
  • Climate Risk Means Cocoa Yield Volatility Likely to Persist, World Cocoa Foundation August 2026
  • Cocoa Cost Structure and Price Forecast, S&P Global Commodity Insights August 2026
  • Cocoa Industry Faces Margin Pressure with Rising Costs – Bloomberg August 2026

    • Coffee 2.96 (USd/lb.)

  • Coffee prices have risen 7% in August 2026 amid tighter supplies linked to Brazil’s lower-than-expected Arabica crop, impacted by unseasonal rainfall during flowering. Concurrently, demand from key consuming markets in North America and Europe remains robust, supporting the bullish momentum. However, risks include potential weather recovery in Brazil and increased Indonesian and Vietnamese Arabica production forecasts, which could ease supply constraints and cap further price gains.
  • August 2026 ICO Coffee Market Report
  • Brazil Coffee Crop Outlook August 2026 - CONAB
  • Coffee Prices Rally on Brazil’s Weather Concerns - Reuters August 31, 2026
  • USDA Coffee Supply-Demand Update September 2026
  • As of late Q3 2026, global coffee supply faces moderate tightening due to adverse weather in key producing regions Brazil and Vietnam, constraining arabica and robusta outputs. Demand recovery in Europe and North America remains steady post-pandemic, supporting firm price levels. However, rising input costs and geopolitical uncertainties around export logistics pose downside risks to supply stability. Inventory levels have tightened, prompting concerns of price volatility ahead of the October planting season.
  • Intercontinental Exchange Coffee Market Report, August 2026
  • International Coffee Organization Monthly Supply/Demand Update, August 2026
  • FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation, July 2026
  • Reuters: Coffee Prices Held Firm on Crop Concerns August 31, 2026
  • Bloomberg: Brazil Weather Threatens Coffee Growth Outlook September 1, 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the coffee cost curve is tightening due to escalating input costs and adverse weather impacting key origins, particularly Brazil and Vietnam. Production costs have surged with fertilizer prices and labor shortages, pushing the break-even prices higher. This squeezes low-cost producers and raises the risk of supply contraction if prices do not compensate rising costs, while demand remains resilient amid rising consumer prices, potentially curbing margin buffers along the curve.
  • September 2026 ICO Coffee Market Report
  • Brazil Coffee Production Costs Surge in 2026
  • Vietnam Coffee Growers Face Rising Input Prices
  • Rabobank: Coffee Price Outlook and Cost Pressures, Q3 2026
  • Bloomberg Coffee Market Report: Supply Risks Mount

    • Sugar 0.18 (USd/lb.)

  • Sugar prices have declined moderately in August and early September 2026, pressured by higher-than-expected output from Brazil's 2025/26 crop and robust sugar inventory levels in major consuming countries. The Brazilian real's depreciation against the dollar is also easing export costs, limiting further price surges. However, weather uncertainties in India and Thailand could constrain output later this year, posing a risk to price stability amid tightening global demand forecasts tied to economic slowdowns.
  • USDA August 2026 Sugar Market Outlook
  • Brazil Sugarcane Crop Estimate Update - CONAB August 2026
  • ICSC Sugar Report September 2026
  • Reuters: Sugar Prices Edge Lower on Oversupply Concerns - Sep 3, 2026
  • As of early September 2026, global sugar supply tightness is intensifying due to weather-related production shortfalls in key exporters Brazil and India, combined with stronger-than-expected demand from Asia and ethanol blending policies. The International Sugar Organization’s latest data indicates ending stocks are declining, pressuring prices upward. However, uncertainties remain around the La Niña weather pattern's trajectory and its impact on crop yields, as well as potential policy shifts in major consuming countries which could moderate demand growth.
  • ISO Monthly Market Report August 2026
  • Brazil’s Sugar Output Cuts 2026 Amid Adverse Weather – Conab
  • India’s Sugar Production Falls Below Estimates – ISMA Report September 2026
  • Sugar Prices Rally on Tight Supplies, Ethanol Demand Gains – Reuters, Sep 2026
  • FAO Crop Weather Update: La Niña Effects and Global Crops Outlook, August 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the global sugar cost curve reflects upward pressure driven by higher energy and fertilizer costs, particularly impacting Brazilian and Indian producers. Supply chain disruptions and adverse weather reduced output forecasts, tightening margins for high-cost producers pushing the global marginal cost level higher. Key risks include Brazil’s upcoming crop yields, which remain uncertain due to variable rainfall patterns, and ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting trade logistics, potentially exacerbating cost volatility.
  • International Sugar Organization: Market and Cost Update August 2026
  • Brazilian Sugarcane Cost Dynamics Report Q3 2026
  • Indian Sugar Industry Faces Input Cost Inflation – September 2026 Analysis
  • Reuters: Sugar Prices Near 5-Year Highs Amid Supply Concerns, Sept 2026
  • Bloomberg: Sugar Cost Curve Shifts on Energy and Weather Risks, Sept 2026

    • Orange Juice 1.56 (USd/lb.)

  • As of early September 2026, orange juice prices have softened modestly after a summer rally driven by reduced Brazilian citrus output due to adverse weather conditions, particularly droughts affecting key growing regions. Supply tightening remains the primary driver, compounded by logistical constraints and rising input costs. However, demand uncertainties linked to global economic slowdown and shifting consumer preferences toward alternative beverages pose downside risks to sustained price strength.
  • USDA Citrus Report August 2026
  • Brazil’s 2026 Orange Crop Faces Drought Impact
  • ICE Orange Juice Futures Monthly Summary August 2026
  • Global Beverage Consumption Trends Affecting Orange Juice Demand
  • As of early September 2026, global orange juice supply is tightening due to lower-than-expected harvests in Brazil, the largest producer, largely driven by adverse weather impacting crop yields. Demand remains steady but faces pressure from rising prices and inflationary food input costs. Inventory levels have declined compared to previous seasons, signaling potential for further price volatility. Key risks include possible disruption from ongoing weather variability in citrus-growing regions and trade policy shifts affecting exports.
  • Brazil 2026 Orange Crop Outlook - CONAB Aug 2026 Report
  • ICE Futures US Orange Juice Inventory and Price Update - Sep 2026
  • USDA September 2026 Citrus Quarterly Supply-Demand Report
  • Reuters: Brazil Citrus Crop Hit by Drought, Orange Juice Prices Rally
  • FAO Food Price Index and Citrus Market Outlook - August 2026
  • As of September 2026, the orange juice cost curve reflects upward pressure driven primarily by adverse weather conditions in Brazil, the largest producer, notably drought impacting crop yields and increasing production costs. Rising fertilizer and energy expenses further elevate the cost base. Inventory tightening combined with robust global demand risks accelerating price volatility, with uncertainty around potential frost events in key US growing regions posing a near-term supply constraint.
  • USDA August 2026 Citrus Report
  • Brazil Drought Cuts Orange Juice Output - Agribusiness Review Sep 2026
  • ICE Orange Juice Monthly Futures Report August 2026
  • Fertilizer Costs and Their Role in Citrus Production Expenses, IFDC August 2026
  • Rabobank: Orange Juice Market Outlook Q3 2026

    • Cotton 0.86 (USd/lb.)

  • As of early September 2026, cotton prices have experienced moderate upward pressure driven by delayed harvests in major producing regions including India and the U.S., coupled with tighter-than-expected global exportable supplies. Increased demand from textile manufacturers amid recovering consumer markets underpins price support. However, price gains face downside risks from potential monsoon variability in South Asia and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties that could dampen apparel demand later this year.
  • USDA Crop Progress and Cotton Supply Update - August 2026
  • ICAC August 2026 Outlook Report Highlights Tight Global Cotton Supplies
  • Cotton Prices Rise on Harvest Delays and Export Tightness – Reuters August 2026
  • Textile Demand Recovery Supports Cotton Prices - Bloomberg Commodities, Sept 1 2026
  • As of early September 2026, global cotton supply is tightening due to weather-related yield declines notably in major producers like India and the U.S. This supply contraction is driving upward pressure on prices despite moderate demand growth led by South Asia and Southeast Asia textile sectors. Key risks include potential demand moderation arising from inflation-driven spending cuts and geopolitical trade uncertainties affecting export flows, which could reshape inventories and price trajectories into Q4.
  • USDA September 2026 Cotton Supply and Demand Report
  • ICAC August 2026 Quarterly Cotton Market Review
  • FAO Cotton Production Outlook - August 2026
  • Cotton Prices Rise Amid Tightening Supply - Bloomberg, August 2026
  • China Textile Demand Slows in Q3 2026 - Reuters, September 1, 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the cotton cost curve reflects a moderate rise in global cotton production costs, driven primarily by increased energy prices and tighter labor markets in key producing regions such as the U.S. and India. This upward pressure has shifted higher-cost producers closer to the marginal cost level, tightening the supply side. Key uncertainties include weather variability impacting yields in major growing areas and potential trade policy shifts affecting export competitiveness, which could reshape the cost curve dynamics in coming months.
  • USDA Cotton Cost of Production Report Aug 2026
  • ICAC Quarterly Market Report July 2026
  • Energy Price Impact on Cotton Costs - Bloomberg Commodities Aug 2026
  • India Cotton Harvest 2026 Update - Ministry of Agriculture Sept 2026
  • Trade Policy Risks for Cotton Exporters - Reuters Aug 2026

    • Lumber 0.00 (USD/1000 board feet)

  • Lumber prices have eased modestly in late summer 2026 after spiking mid-year due to tightening U.S. housing starts and limited Canadian softwood exports amid regulatory adjustments. Supply chain bottlenecks have improved, easing inventory pressures. However, persistent inflation in construction materials and potential Canadian export policy shifts pose risks to supply stability, potentially maintaining volatility through Q4 2026.
  • USDA August 2026 Softwood Lumber Report
  • Lumber Futures Update – CME August 31, 2026
  • Reuters: Lumber Price Dip Amid Housing Slowdown, Sept 3, 2026
  • Canadian Forest Service Report on Lumber Export Policy Changes, July 2026
  • As of September 2026, lumber supply remains constrained due to ongoing mill capacity limitations and elevated energy costs affecting production efficiency. Demand has softened slightly amid cooling new home construction in North America but remains supported by renovation activity and commercial projects. The primary risk centers on potential forestry disruptions caused by worsening climate-related wildfires in key production regions, which could tighten supply further, compounding existing inflationary pressures on lumber prices.
  • NAHB July 2026 Lumber Supply and Pricing Update
  • US Forest Service 2026 Midyear Timber Industry Report
  • Lumber Prices and Inventory Trends – August 2026, CME Group
  • Climate Risks to Lumber Supply in Canada, Natural Resources Canada August 2026
  • Wood Markets September 2026 Report – Supply Constraints Persist
  • As of September 2026, the lumber cost curve reflects upward pressure driven primarily by supply constraints from recent wildfires affecting key North American timber regions and elevated transportation costs. Secondary factors include tightening environmental regulations limiting harvest volumes. While demand in construction sectors remains steady, rising input costs have compressed margins for mid-tier producers. The main uncertainty lies in potential regulatory shifts and wildfire recurrence during the upcoming fall season, which could further disrupt supply and shift the cost structure higher or cause short-term price volatility.
  • August 2026 North American Timber Market Report
  • Lumber Prices and Costs Update - Canadian Wood Council, July 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Lumber Supply Tightening Amid Wildfires, August 2026
  • Timber & Lumber Cost Trends Q3 2026 - Bank of America Global Research
  • Industry Alert: Environmental Regulations Impact on Lumber Costs - NAHB Report August 2026

    • Ethanol 2.16 (USD/gal.)

  • As of early September 2026, ethanol prices have edged slightly higher, driven primarily by tightening US corn supplies amid adverse Midwest weather and robust domestic blending mandates. Elevated natural gas costs continue to pressure production economics, limiting supply growth. Key uncertainties include upcoming USDA crop reports and EPA decisions on renewable volume obligations, which could materially impact ethanol demand and pricing dynamics in the medium term.
  • USDA WASDE Report August 2026 Highlights Corn and Ethanol Outlook
  • EPA 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard Annual Rule Released August 2026
  • Bloomberg: Ethanol Prices Rise on Corn Tightness and Energy Costs, Sept 2, 2026
  • Platts Analysis: US Ethanol Market Tightens on Crop Concerns, August 2026
  • As of early September 2026, ethanol supply is tightening slightly due to lower corn harvest forecasts amid adverse Midwest weather, constraining feedstock availability. Demand remains robust, driven primarily by resilient domestic blending mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and stable export volumes to Asian markets. Downside risk stems from potential shifts in US biofuel policies tied to upcoming elections, which could alter blending requirements or subsidies, introducing uncertainty for supply chain investment and ethanol plant utilization.
  • USDA Crop Progress Report August 2026
  • EPA 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard Annual Rule
  • EIA Monthly Energy Review August 2026: Ethanol Supply and Demand
  • ADP Research: Ethanol Market Updates September 2026
  • Bloomberg: Ethanol Plant Margins Pressure on Tight Corn Supplies
  • As of mid-2026, the ethanol cost curve is being reshaped by rising corn prices and evolving biofuel policy frameworks, particularly the EPA's updated Renewable Fuel Standard adjustments enacted in Q2 2026. Production costs have shifted upward for conventional corn ethanol facilities, while advanced bioethanol from cellulosic sources begins moving lower on the curve due to technological gains. Key risks include volatility in feedstock supply linked to weather and geopolitical tensions affecting global grain markets, which could pressure margins and future capacity investments.
  • EPA Finalizes 2026 Renewable Fuel Standards
  • USDA Crop Report Highlights Corn Price Pressures – Aug 2026
  • IEA Bioenergy Report: Advances in Cellulosic Ethanol Costs H1 2026
  • Bloomberg: Corn Ethanol Margins Narrow Amid Feedstock Rally – July 2026
  • BNEF: Biofuel Technology Trends and Cost Curves, Q2 2026

    • Live Cattle 2.13 (USd/lb.)

  • Live cattle prices have declined modestly in August 2026 following a period of strength driven by higher domestic demand and tightened supply stemming from herd liquidation in previous quarters. Key drivers include increasing feed costs and slower export growth, notably to Asia, amid evolving trade policies. Ongoing risks include supply chain disruptions from weather variability and potential shifts in global trade agreements, which could constrain further price recovery in the near term.
  • USDA August 2026 Cattle Market Report
  • CME Live Cattle Futures Market Commentary August 2026
  • Rabobank Livestock Market Outlook September 2026
  • Reuters: US Live Cattle Prices Weaken on Export Concerns, Sept 2026
  • As of early September 2026, U.S. live cattle supplies are tightening due to continued herd liquidation pressures triggered by drought conditions at major grazing regions and elevated feed costs. This supply contraction has led to higher negotiated cattle prices despite weaker demand from export markets, which face headwinds from global economic slowdowns. An important uncertainty remains the pace of herd rebuilding, as prolonged dry weather and feed availability risks could constrain supply recovery, potentially keeping prices elevated through late 2026.
  • USDA Cattle On Feed Report - August 2026
  • USDA August 2026 Cattle Market Report
  • Cattle Market Update: Supply Tightens Amid Drought Stress - Drovers, Sep 2026
  • Live Cattle Prices Respond to Dry Weather and Higher Feed Costs - CME Group, Aug 2026
  • Export Challenges Weigh on U.S. Cattle Demand in Mid 2026 - USDA Economic Research Service
  • As of September 2026, the live cattle cost curve shows rising break-even points driven primarily by sustained feed cost inflation and higher labor expenses, compressing producers' margins. Despite slight easing in feedgrain prices recently, the sector faces ongoing input cost pressures. A key risk remains volatile weather conditions impacting feed availability and future production costs, which could further shift cost dynamics and influence supply decisions for the upcoming slaughter seasons.
  • USDA Cattle Cost Report August 2026
  • Cattle Market Analysis - CME Group August 2026
  • Rabobank Livestock Quarterly - Q3 2026
  • National Cattlemen’s Beef Association Feed Cost Update Sept 2026
  • Bloomberg Live Cattle Futures and Cost Outlook August 2026

    • Feeder Cattle 3.20 (USd/lb.)

  • Feeder cattle prices in early September 2026 have softened modestly following robust gains through mid-2026, pressured by increased feed costs and ongoing drought conditions in key U.S. cattle-growing regions. Rising feed prices are constraining producer margins, reducing feeder cattle placements and creating near-term supply tightness but limiting upside price momentum. Weather volatility remains a key risk, as improved pasture conditions could rapidly increase supply and weigh on prices, while prolonged drought could sustain elevated price levels.
  • USDA Cattle Market Outlook – August 2026
  • Feeder Cattle Futures Market Update, CME Group, August 31, 2026
  • Drought Conditions Impacting Cattle Placement, USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, August 27, 2026
  • Feed Cost Inflation Limits Feeder Cattle Rally, Bloomberg Agriculture, August 25, 2026
  • As of early September 2026, feeder cattle supplies remain relatively tight due to slower-than-expected herd rebuilding amid persistent drought conditions in key Plains states. Demand from feedlots has softened modestly as feed costs remain elevated, constraining feeder placements. The primary risk continues to be weather variability affecting pasture recovery and drought intensity, which could further limit cattle availability or push prices higher. Uncertainties in export demand due to variable trade conditions also weigh on near-term market balance.
  • USDA Cattle Report August 2026
  • CME Group Livestock Market Commentary September 2026
  • National Cattlemen’s Beef Association Feedlot Placement Data August 2026
  • US Drought Monitor Report August 2026
  • Rabobank Global Beef Market Outlook Q3 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the feeder cattle cost curve shows modest upward pressure on break-even prices, driven by higher feed costs amid tightening corn supplies and elevated energy prices. Increased drought impacts in key U.S. cattle-raising regions have constrained supply, exacerbating input cost pressures. A key risk is potential volatility from weather developments and evolving export demand, which could further shift cost structures and market pricing dynamics for feeder cattle producers.
  • USDA Feed Cost and Cattle Price Outlook Aug 2026
  • CME Group Feeder Cattle Market Report September 2026
  • September 2026 USDA Weekly Feeder Cattle Prices and Costs
  • Rabobank Mid-Year Livestock Insights 2026
  • DTN Market Advisory: Feed Cost Pressures and Cattle Profitability 2026

    • Lean Hogs 0.82 (USd/lb.)

  • As of early September 2026, Lean Hogs prices have declined modestly following August's rallies driven by seasonal pork demand ahead of Q4. The recent downturn is attributed to growing hog supplies amid improvements in feed grain availability and easing export momentum, particularly China’s slower import recovery. However, ongoing risks include potential African Swine Fever flare-ups in key producing regions and volatile grain prices impacting production costs, which may tighten supplies unexpectedly and support prices.
  • USDA August Livestock Market Report
  • CME Group Lean Hogs Futures Price Update September 2026
  • Rabobank Livestock Sector Outlook Q3 2026
  • China Pork Import Dynamics Weigh on US Hog Prices - Reuters Aug 2026
  • As of September 2026, lean hog supplies remain elevated due to strong breeding herd retention since early 2026, resulting in record pork production volumes. Demand growth is moderated by subdued export markets, especially in key Asian destinations where economic slowdowns reduce import appetite. The main risk to the supply-demand balance is potential feed cost volatility that could pressure producer margins and trigger herd reductions, tightening supplies in late 2026 or early 2027.
  • USDA August 2026 Hog Outlook Report
  • USDA Pork Production and Hog Inventory – August 2026
  • CME Group Lean Hog Futures Overview – September 2026
  • Rabobank Livestock Market Outlook Q3 2026
  • Reuters: Asian Demand Weakens for US Pork Exports, Aug 2026
  • As of early September 2026, the lean hog cost curve shows a modest upward shift driven by rising feed costs after recent drought conditions in major corn-producing states. Producers face higher breakeven prices amid tightening feed grain supplies, pressuring margins despite resilient pork demand. Risks center on potential weather volatility impacting feed availability further and evolving trade dynamics with key export markets like China, which could alter slaughter rates and influence cost curve dynamics.
  • USDA August 2026 Feed Outlook
  • USDA September 2026 Livestock Market Report
  • Rabobank Pork & Feed Cost Analysis August 2026
  • Agri — Pulse: Feed Prices Push Up Hog Production Costs Sept 2026
  • International Pork Market Outlook, FAO September 2026

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    XAGJPY CurncySilver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.-14.176.71-22.22125.8336.77
    XAGUSD CurncySilver SpotUSD/t oz.-10.657.73-21.48116.7234.32
    SI1 ComdtySilver (Comex)USD/t oz.-9.578.06-21.43115.5334.05
    QS1 ComdtyGasoil (Nymex)USD/MT128.6920.5419.49109.8549.96

    Worst Commodities 1yr

    Tickernameunitsytd1month6months1yrRank
    JO1 ComdtyOrange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-27.52-2.22-15.55-69.42-29.06
    CC1 ComdtyCocoa (ICE)USD/MT0.721.31100.13-34.1822.42
    SB1 ComdtySugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.20.7118.8028.80-14.2411.12
    NG1 ComdtyNatural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu-14.1210.78-4.18-7.17-0.19
    LH1 ComdtyLean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.-2.95-2.43-14.63-6.42-7.83