Supporting Data for July 2026 Commodities Strategy

Midlincoln Commodities Rankings from best to worst

NameRank
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT32.63
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.22.91
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.18.24
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT15.85
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.15.11
Cocking CoalCNY/MT14.68
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.14.63
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.11.46
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.9.79
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.9.33
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.9.02
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT8.97
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.7.77
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt6.62
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.2.96
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT1.22
SteelUSD/MT1.13
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.0.50
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.0.46
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.-1.72
NickelUSD/MT-4.19
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu-4.58
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT-5.48
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.-9.22
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-26.55

Commodities Monthly Performance

NameUnitsLastPriceCurrencyMonthChange USDpct
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT5384.00USD38.66
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.3.1005000000000003USD15.67
Cocking CoalCNY/MT1310CNY9.62
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.7109999999999999USD7.44
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt13.28USD4.90
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.3.6063USD3.50
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.1479USD3.35
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl108000.00JPY2.86
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.4.55USD1.90
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT80.20USD0.92
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.3923USD0.08
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3541.00USD0.03
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.2.945USD0.00
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.10.235USD0.00
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.16USD0.00
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.0.9875USD-0.75
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.6.0875USD-0.98
SteelUSD/MT583USD-1.19
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT13366.50USD-1.98
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT752.40CAD-2.16
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.6.2225USD-4.49
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.7712USD-4.66
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.1286.0000USD-4.70
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT52628.00USD-5.03
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu3.19USD-5.06
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.2.9583USD-5.33
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.3640.3300EUR-5.73
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.310.90USD-5.73
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.674576.4375JPY-6.00
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg214.20JPY-6.30
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g22182.00JPY-6.39
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.3115.5400GBP-6.77
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.396526.6563INR-7.17
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.4156.3800USD-7.64
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.4164.90USD-8.06
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT954.25USD-9.78
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.3.2623USD-9.79
NickelUSD/MT16424USD-13.84
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1646.6700USD-14.66
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.6667000000000001USD-15.01
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g330.00JPY-15.17
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3090.50USD-15.71
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.54.4123EUR-16.41
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.10084.0400JPY-16.63
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.46.5716GBP-17.32
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.62.51USD-17.79
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.62.1300USD-18.08
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.72.04USD-23.40
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.68.64USD-24.31
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl66530.00JPY-26.89
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet--USD

Commodities YTD Performance

NameUnitsLastPriceCurrencyYTDChange USDpct
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.2.9583USD70.00
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT954.25USD56.43
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.3.2623USD56.05
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.6667000000000001USD34.74
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt13.28USD27.94
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl108000.00JPY25.58
Cocking CoalCNY/MT1310CNY25.24
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT752.40CAD20.42
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.68.64USD20.27
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.7712USD19.44
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT52628.00USD18.74
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.72.04USD17.85
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.6.0875USD17.52
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.0.9875USD16.45
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg214.20JPY15.97
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl66530.00JPY15.40
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT3541.00USD11.79
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.6.2225USD8.06
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT13366.50USD3.62
SteelUSD/MT583USD3.19
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.310.90USD2.14
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.3923USD2.00
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.4.55USD1.96
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.3.6063USD1.44
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT3090.50USD0.06
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.2.945USD0.00
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.10.235USD0.00
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.16USD0.00
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.396526.6563INR-0.51
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.1479USD-1.20
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.674576.4375JPY-2.87
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g22182.00JPY-3.31
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.3640.3300EUR-4.01
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.3115.5400GBP-5.47
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.4156.3800USD-5.98
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.4164.90USD-6.05
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu3.19USD-8.07
NickelUSD/MT16424USD-8.22
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT80.20USD-8.32
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT5384.00USD-12.37
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g330.00JPY-13.16
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.54.4123EUR-14.47
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.62.51USD-15.31
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.46.5716GBP-15.68
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.62.1300USD-16.16
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.10084.0400JPY-16.34
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.3.1005000000000003USD-18.91
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.7109999999999999USD-20.58
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.1286.0000USD-25.16
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1646.6700USD-25.47
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet--USD

Key Topics and News

Oil Production Cost Curve
Oil Supply and Demand
Aluminium Cost Curve
Aluminium Supply and Demand
Nickel Metal Cost Curve
Nickel Metal Supply Demand
Copper Cost Curve
Copper Supply Demand

Recent Commodities Ideas ChartArt

Top 5 Commodities Longs Based on Momentum

Tickernameunits1monthytd6months1yrRank
XB1 ComdtyRBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.-5.3370.0070.0054.4139.69
LMSNDS03 Comdty3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT-5.0318.7418.7484.1932.63
HO1 ComdtyHeating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.-9.7956.0556.0549.8832.05
JI1 ComdtySilver (Tokyo)JPY/g-15.17-13.16-13.16124.4932.05
QS1 ComdtyGasoil (Nymex)USD/MT-9.7856.4356.4343.5530.07

Top 5 Commodities Shorts Based on Momentum

Tickernameunits1monthytd6months1yrRank
JO1 ComdtyOrange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.7.44-20.58-20.58-66.50-26.55
SB1 ComdtySugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.3.35-1.20-1.20-29.81-9.22
CC1 ComdtyCocoa (ICE)USD/MT38.66-12.37-12.37-42.74-5.48
NG1 ComdtyNatural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu-5.06-8.07-8.07-0.62-4.58
LMNIDS03 ComdtyNickelUSD/MT-13.84-8.22-8.229.49-4.19

Estimates of Commodities Avg Annual Prices

NameUnitsAvg2014Avg2015Avg2016Avg2017Avg2018Avg2019Avg2020Avg2021Avg2022Avg2023Avg2024Avg2025Avg2026
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)USD/bbl.94.9950.2842.7551.2066.4756.1540.1866.8795.0378.2877.4163.1185.55
Brent Crude (ICE)USD/bbl.101.8055.5744.4954.9372.1363.1443.5569.5699.4583.0481.8767.0688.59
Crude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl65510.0040930.0027931.6737180.8347237.5040296.6729553.3344018.3370425.0071472.5077025.0064156.6787488.33
Natural Gas (Nymex)USD/MMBtu4.302.632.553.102.992.622.093.696.672.642.593.443.19
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex)USd/gal.2.671.661.411.661.971.701.212.052.932.492.371.922.73
Heating Oil (Nymex)USd/gal.2.851.741.341.672.091.921.282.033.472.782.612.283.34
Gasoil (Nymex)USD/MT860.42514.50390.94495.81645.10584.38379.44575.481028.06814.38790.54684.581050.00
Kerosene (Tokyo)JPY/kl78761.6753452.5039289.1749809.1764072.5057185.8343763.3360145.0081399.1777566.6782500.0083000.0099833.33
ECX Emissions (ICE)EUR/MT7.878.546.016.2815.0524.6424.7851.4780.8183.8664.1175.7777.36
Cocking CoalCNY/MT1268.211413.171308.791264.711978.752485.291698.581776.671116.001131.33
Gold (Comex)USD/t oz.1256.961164.131242.981261.421296.031393.651789.181793.081809.731959.542152.923537.834719.27
Gold (Tokyo)JPY/g4244.084518.754351.504528.004513.174856.426090.506300.087543.588749.6710390.3317524.6724612.00
Gold SpotUSD/t oz.1257.901165.041244.581260.771291.161390.271781.961792.231802.741946.002143.253524.474700.36
Gold/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.942.711046.481121.541119.381082.191241.641555.331512.171713.251814.651979.823126.084031.19
Gold/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.760.72762.51916.27977.94953.381094.401384.481303.821456.451582.131691.072695.923497.50
Gold/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.132439.14140867.54135395.43141150.35140707.55151395.17189708.45196137.93235376.45272542.25323040.97538181.63742088.26
Gold/Indian Rupee SpotINR/t oz.76693.9874391.5383373.7682136.4686707.7497986.21132303.55132329.73140790.36161008.04177172.37311652.22433611.55
Silver (Comex)USD/t oz.18.9915.6817.0517.2216.0216.1720.6725.0721.7923.5624.7141.9876.61
Silver (Tokyo)JPY/g63.8660.5859.2061.4155.9956.4970.0888.2089.96104.98119.70205.33389.43
Silver SpotUSD/t oz.19.0015.7217.0817.2416.0216.1520.5325.0121.7123.4024.6042.5076.67
Silver/Euro SpotEUR/t oz.14.2214.1315.3915.3313.4214.4217.8421.0820.6021.8122.7337.6565.76
Silver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.11.4810.2912.6113.3911.8212.7115.9118.1817.5119.0219.4132.4857.03
Silver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.1997.591901.201852.361930.391744.571758.402183.742735.592827.783275.583710.946493.1412172.26
Platinum SpotUSD/t oz.1387.321069.77992.14958.52908.21861.19896.211090.11954.68993.07908.481385.882053.30
Palladium SpotUSD/t oz.799.70704.93617.60862.401026.021512.272195.902423.552148.351397.87949.141273.911574.25
Copper (Comex)USd/lb.3.132.542.202.812.972.712.764.204.013.813.974.795.91
3Mo Copper (LME)USD/MT6870.465589.334873.506196.006659.255991.086143.969216.298863.008437.088716.1710281.6712973.00
3Mo Aluminum (LME)USD/MT1884.901703.581619.131957.672138.581817.921723.332437.922737.042293.882290.252743.503352.00
3Mo Zinc (LME)USD/MT2153.041976.132096.132872.253032.002483.582239.132956.583476.172622.672507.833054.673308.75
3Mo Tin (LME)USD/MT22013.7516282.9217658.3320154.1720428.3318467.5017087.3330047.0031787.7525346.3327085.6733717.6748978.00
NickelUSD/MT16717.5012147.089583.7510585.8313551.6713755.8313669.2518449.6726612.0822084.5817037.8315110.3317979.17
SteelUSD/MT526.25355.00369.38493.71548.13451.42446.42679.28734.83638.00591.83554.00582.00
Corn (CBOT)USd/bu.0.384.243.793.743.663.853.585.716.795.774.434.294.52
Wheat (CBOT)USd/bu.2.605.704.854.634.914.955.367.088.946.455.795.295.82
Oats (CBOT)USd/bu.0.001.462.142.412.512.832.824.735.413.673.553.212.95
Rough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt14.1111.0810.2510.9511.5011.5012.8013.4516.5716.3716.8712.1411.26
Soybean (CBOT)USd/bu.1.749.459.719.779.428.959.3113.7015.0313.9712.0110.1110.24
Soybean Meal (CBOT)USD/T.430.26326.37313.93312.35340.27306.84313.10387.33426.30431.56351.60293.87314.28
Soybean Oil (CBOT)USd/lb.0.370.310.320.340.300.290.310.560.680.550.470.470.66
Canola (ICE)CAD/MT441.19474.08482.08509.64503.82461.20492.67787.28956.78725.55633.33612.67709.93
Cocoa (ICE)USD/MT3004.173059.252905.832018.422266.752386.252486.172496.252472.673179.337061.337093.674025.17
Coffee 'C' (ICE)USd/lb.1.751.321.351.341.141.021.131.672.161.711.903.533.04
Sugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.0.170.130.180.160.120.120.130.180.180.240.220.170.15
Orange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.1.451.251.701.551.511.081.161.221.712.953.362.991.86
Cotton #2 (ICE)USd/lb.0.770.630.650.750.820.670.630.921.090.830.840.670.71
Lumber (CME)USD/1000 board feet337.38270.06295.23379.39464.43362.89496.94837.69725.05163.360.000.000.00
Rubber (Tokyo)USD/kg207.43190.36171.15241.90177.54181.20167.08167.90167.90167.90167.90169.87202.68
Ethanol (CBOT)USD/gal.2.171.531.511.521.401.371.212.102.162.162.162.162.16
Live Cattle (CME)USd/lb.1.511.481.191.181.141.151.071.241.421.721.782.202.42
Feeder Cattle (CME)USd/lb.2.022.041.441.431.481.421.371.511.742.252.413.223.63
Lean Hogs (CME)USd/lb.1.060.710.650.700.690.720.580.910.970.800.880.840.98

Commodities News, Table of Contents:

OilNatural GasCocking CoalGoldSilverPlatinumPalladiumCopper
3Mo Aluminum3Mo Zinc3Mo TinNickelSteelCornWheatOats
Rough RiceSoybeanCanolaCocoaCoffeeSugarOrange JuiceCotton
WoolLumberRubberEthanolLive CattleFeeder CattleLean Hogs

Oil 72.04 (USD/bbl.)

  • Oil prices in early July 2026 have edged higher, driven primarily by renewed output cuts announced by OPEC+ in late June to stabilize prices amid weakening global demand signals. Supply constraints from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add upward pressure, while recession fears in major economies and persistent inflationary impacts pose downside risks, creating a balanced uncertainty on near-term price direction. Inventory reports from key consumers suggest tightening balances, but strong dollar strength remains a key constraint on further price gains.
  • OPEC+ Agrees to 1.5 Million bpd Production Cut to Support Prices
  • EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report - June 30, 2026
  • Oil Prices Rise Amid OPEC+ Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions
  • Goldman Sachs Outlook: Oil Market Tightening Despite Demand Concerns
  • As of early July 2026, global oil supply is tightening due to accelerated OPEC+ production cuts combined with supply disruptions in key non-OPEC producers. Demand growth remains steady, supported by continued economic expansion in Asia and resilient transportation fuel consumption in the US and Europe. However, downside risks include potential demand destruction from a mild economic slowdown in China and geopolitical tensions along major pipeline routes, which could constrain supply further and increase price volatility.
  • IEA Oil Market Report – July 2026
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - July 2026
  • US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2026
  • Reuters: Global oil supply tightens amid OPEC cuts and disruptions
  • Bloomberg: Chinese demand growth slows, adding uncertainty to oil markets
  • As of mid-2026, the global oil cost curve reflects a resilient upward price environment driven by constrained upstream investment, particularly in high-cost US shale and deepwater projects. OPEC+ production discipline and weakening non-OPEC supply growth have steepened the curve, elevating marginal barrel breakevens. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in strategic producing regions and uncertainties around the pace of energy transition policies represent key risks that could abruptly alter the cost curve dynamics and price stability.
  • IEA Oil Market Report - June 2026
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - June 2026
  • Rystad Energy: Global Oil Cost Curve Update Q2 2026
  • Bloomberg: High-Cost Oil Projects Under Strain as Prices Hold Firm
  • J.P. Morgan Commodities Research: Oil Cost Curve Trends July 2026

    • Natural Gas 3.19 (USD/MMBtu)

  • Natural gas prices in early July 2026 have edged slightly lower amid rising U.S. production and easing cooling demand following a milder summer start. Key drivers include record-high U.S. output and ample LNG export capacity that have balanced global supply, while inventories remain above seasonal averages. The main uncertainty lies in potential heat waves later in the summer or geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, which could tighten balances and push prices upward.
  • EIA Natural Gas Monthly Report - June 2026
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration: Natural Gas Weekly Update July 3, 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: July 2026 Natural Gas Market Outlook
  • Bloomberg: U.S. Gas Production Keeps Prices Soft as LNG Exports Grow – July 2, 2026
  • As of early July 2026, global natural gas supply is tightening due to maintenance outages in key LNG exporting regions and constrained pipeline flows from Russia amid geopolitical tensions. Demand remains robust in Asia and Europe because of elevated power generation needs and industrial activity post-winter replenishment. U.S. shale gas growth is moderate but insufficient to offset supply disruptions. A major risk is the potential for accelerated European winter demand if natural gas storage refills fail to keep pace, which could exacerbate price volatility and supply shortages.
  • IEA Gas Market Report – July 2026
  • EIA Monthly Natural Gas Data – June 2026
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report July 2026 – Natural Gas Section
  • Reuters Analysis: LNG export disruptions tighten natural gas supply, July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Europe’s Gas Storage Filling Slows Ahead of Winter 2026
  • As of July 2026, the global natural gas cost curve shows upward pressure driven by constrained supply expansions in North America and higher operational costs in major producers like Russia and the Middle East. LNG export capacity bottlenecks and robust Asian demand post-winter heating season keep marginal cost levels elevated. Key risk remains the potential for weaker industrial demand growth amid slowing global GDP projections, which could soften spot prices and impact cost curve dynamics.
  • IEA July 2026 Gas Market Report
  • EIA July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook – Natural Gas
  • Wood Mackenzie Natural Gas Cost Curve Analysis July 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Natural Gas Marginal Costs Update July 2026
  • Financial Times: LNG Capacity Constraints Push Up Natural Gas Cost Curve

    • Cocking Coal 1,310.00 (CNY/MT)

  • Coking coal prices have declined moderately in Q2 2026 after peaking in early 2026, primarily due to slowing steel production demand in China and an easing of supply constraints from Australia and the US. Inventory restocking by major steel producers has plateaued, limiting further price rises. Key uncertainties include potential new Chinese steel policy adjustments targeting emissions and infrastructure stimulus, which could either support a price rebound or exert further downward pressure.
  • Q2 2026 Coking Coal Market Update - Argus Media
  • BHP Quarterly Report Q2 2026 Highlights Production and Prices
  • China Steel Demand Outlook and Coal Impact - S&P Global Platts June 2026
  • Australian Coking Coal Export Trends H1 2026 - Department of Industry Report
  • As of mid-2026, coking coal supply remains tight due to disruptions in key exporting regions including Australia and Russia, constraining seaborne availability. Demand growth for steel production in Asia, notably China and India, remains steady but faces headwinds from slowing industrial activity. A major risk is potential escalations in geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes or new export restrictions, which could exacerbate tightness and push prices higher amid limited near-term capacity expansions.
  • July 2026 Australian coking coal export report
  • IEA Coal Market Review June 2026: Structural tightness persists
  • China Steel Demand and Coking Coal Usage Trends Q2 2026
  • Wood Mackenzie: Global Coking Coal Outlook Mid-2026
  • Reuters July 2026: Geopolitical Risks and Coal Supply Stability
  • As of mid-2026, the coking coal cost curve reflects tightening supply due to new environmental restrictions in key exporting regions such as Australia and Mongolia, pushing average production costs higher. Rising costs are mainly driven by increased regulatory compliance and logistical bottlenecks. Meanwhile, demand from steel producers in China and India remains robust, but potential substitution risk from emerging hydrogen-based steelmaking technologies poses a medium-term uncertainty for coking coal pricing and cost competitiveness.
  • July 2026 Global Coking Coal Market Review - IEA
  • BHP Quarterly Report Highlights Rising Coking Coal Costs, July 2026
  • China Steel Demand and Coal Cost Pressures - S&P Global, June 2026
  • Mongolia’s New Mining Regulation Impact on Coking Coal Costs, May 2026
  • World Steel Association Mid-Year Report on Energy and Raw Materials, June 2026

    • Gold 4,156.38 (USD/t oz.)

  • Gold prices have edged up modestly in early July 2026, supported by moderating US Treasury yields and persistent geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Investor demand for safe-haven assets has strengthened despite the US dollar's relative stability after the June FOMC meeting. However, bullion's upside remains constrained by ongoing hawkish signals from major central banks and resilient global economic data, which could reduce gold’s appeal if risk sentiment improves or real yields rise further.
  • Gold Prices Slip Amid Hawkish Fed Outlook - ICE Futures
  • Precious Metals Market Update: July 2026 - World Gold Council
  • Gold Edges Higher as US Yields Dip, Geopolitics Persist - Reuters, June 30, 2026
  • Fed Meeting Minutes June 2026: Impact on Gold and Inflation Expectations
  • In mid-2026, gold supply growth has moderated due to declining output from major mines affected by cost pressures and environmental regulations, while demand remains steady, driven by sustained central bank acquisitions and robust jewelry consumption in Asia. Investment demand is cautious amid persistent global interest rate uncertainty that weighs on gold’s appeal as a safe haven. A key risk is potential slowing Chinese demand given tightening credit conditions, which could temper upside price momentum.
  • World Gold Council July 2026 Gold Demand Trends
  • GFMS Gold Supply & Demand Forecast Mid-2026 Update
  • IMF Report on Central Bank Gold Holdings Q2 2026
  • Reuters: Gold Demand Steady Amid Interest Rate Uncertainty - July 2026
  • World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook July 2026 - Precious Metals Section
  • As of mid-2026, the gold cost curve shows upward pressure on production costs primarily due to rising energy expenses and tighter environmental regulations impacting lower-grade mines. Top-tier producers in regions with lower operating costs retain competitive positions, but geopolitical uncertainty around key mining jurisdictions introduces supply risk. Technological advances in ore processing mildly offset cost increases, though persistent inflation and labor shortages remain significant constraints on cost improvement.
  • Gold Cost Curve Analysis Q2 2026 – Metals Focus
  • World Gold Council Mid-2026 Production Costs Update
  • GFMS Gold Supply and Cost Dynamics – June 2026
  • Energy Costs and Gold Production Costs: July 2026 Outlook

    • Silver 62.51 (USD/t oz.)

  • Silver prices have edged higher in early July 2026, supported by robust industrial demand from the electronics and solar sectors amid easing recession fears globally. Additionally, moderate inflation persistence has sustained some safe-haven interest in precious metals. However, strength in the US dollar and ongoing quantitative tightening by major central banks present upside constraints, adding volatility risk given silver's dual role as an industrial input and investment asset.
  • Silver rises amid steady industrial demand and inflation concerns
  • World Silver Survey 2026: Demand growth continues; supply tight
  • US Dollar strength weighs on precious metals including silver
  • IMF July 2026 Monetary Policy Update: Effects on commodity markets
  • As of mid-2026, silver supply-demand dynamics show a modest increase in supply, driven by higher mining output in the Americas and Australia, while industrial and photovoltaic demand remains resilient amid moderate economic growth. Investment demand has softened slightly due to rising real interest rates, adding downward pressure on prices. Key uncertainty lies in the evolving global energy transition policies, which could either boost silver demand for clean tech or dampen industrial usage depending on regulatory shifts.
  • World Silver Survey 2026
  • USGS Mineral Commodity Summary: Silver 2026
  • Silver Mine Production and Demand Trends Q2 2026
  • Bloomberg: Silver Faces Demand Pressure Amid Rate Hikes - June 2026
  • Reuters: Solar Sector May Influence Silver Demand Outlook for 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the silver cost curve reflects rising input costs, especially energy and labor inflation, pushing average production costs upward. Primary silver miners report slightly higher all-in sustaining costs (AISC), narrowing margins amid moderate price gains driven by industrial recovery and green-tech demand. Key uncertainty remains around global monetary policy tightening, which could pressure silver investment demand and prices, offsetting stable physical demand fundamentals and potentially compressing margins further.
  • 2026 Silver Cost Curve and Mine Economics – CPM Group June 2026
  • Silver Market Outlook Q2 2026 – Metals Focus
  • Kitco News: Silver Producer AISC Rising Amid Inflation Pressures – May 2026
  • LBMA Silver Price Report June 2026
  • Silver Supply & Demand Highlights Mid-2026 – Thomson Reuters GFMS

    • Platinum 1,646.67 (USD/t oz.)

  • Platinum prices in mid-2026 have experienced modest upward pressure driven primarily by tightening supply conditions in South Africa amid ongoing labor negotiations and constrained mine output. Demand from the automotive sector, particularly for fuel cell catalysts, supports the market, although headwinds from weaker industrial growth in China limit upside. Key uncertainty remains around the resolution of strikes affecting primary producers and potential shifts in green hydrogen policies that could alter long-term demand dynamics.
  • South African Platinum Output Cuts Tighten Market, July 2026
  • Automotive Demand Bolsters Platinum Prices in H1 2026
  • IEA Hydrogen Report Highlights Emerging Platinum Demand Risks, June 2026
  • Platinum Price and Inventory Trends – LBMA, June 2026 Monthly Update
  • As of mid-2026, global platinum supply shows modest growth driven by increased South African mine output and stabilized recycling levels. Demand remains resilient, primarily fueled by automotive catalytic converter usage amid tightening emission standards and growing fuel cell applications. However, potential supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions in key producing regions and evolving substitution trends in the auto sector pose medium-term risks. Inventory levels are balanced but sensitive to shifts in industrial demand or recycling rates, warranting close monitoring.
  • Johnson Matthey Q2 2026 Platinum Market Report
  • Sibanye Stillwater June 2026 Production Update
  • WGC Platinum Market Overview H1 2026
  • Reuters July 2026: Supply Risks Loom for Platinum
  • Bloomberg July 2026: Demand Growth in Fuel Cell Platinum Boosts Prices
  • As of mid-2026, the platinum cost curve shows upward pressure on marginal production costs due to rising labor and energy expenses in South African mines, the world's dominant supplier. High-grade underground operations increasingly define the curve, with several lower-cost open-pit operations facing depletion. Price responsiveness remains constrained by ongoing supply-side challenges, including strike risks and regulatory uncertainties in key jurisdictions. Downside risk to the cost curve hinges on potential technological advances in platinum recycling and substitution in catalytic converters amid evolving emission standards.
  • Sibanye Stillwater Q2 2026 Production and Cost Update
  • Johnson Matthey Platinum Group Metals Market Report Q2 2026
  • Anglo American Platinum Q2 2026 Operational Review
  • SP Angel: Platinum Market and Cost Curve Insights June 2026
  • Reuters: South African Platinum Miners Warn of Cost Pressures Amid Strikes

    • Palladium 1,286.00 (USD/t oz.)

  • Palladium prices in mid-2026 have experienced a moderate rebound, driven primarily by strong industrial demand from the automotive sector amid tighter emissions regulations globally. Supply constraints from key producers, notably in Russia and South Africa, have supported prices as output disruptions persist. However, rising recession risks and potential shifts toward electric vehicle adoption pose downside risks that may limit further palladium price gains in the near term.
  • Johnson Matthey July 2026 PGMs Market Update
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Palladium Market Fundamentals Q2 2026
  • Reuters July 2026: Palladium prices supported by supply disruptions
  • World Platinum Investment Council PGMs Demand Outlook Mid-2026
  • As of mid-2026, the palladium market continues to exhibit tight supply conditions driven primarily by constrained output from major Russian and South African mines amid geopolitical and operational challenges. Demand remains robust, supported by growing industrial use and sustained automotive catalyst standards tightening globally. A key risk remains potential supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions affecting Russian exports, as well as substitution trends in catalytic converters potentially dampening palladium demand over 2027.
  • Johnson Matthey Pd Market Report June 2026
  • Sibanye Stillwater Q2 2026 Production Update
  • World Bank Commodities Markets Outlook July 2026
  • Reuters: Palladium Supply Tightens on Russian Export Uncertainty
  • ICMM Mining Industry Report Q2 2026
  • As of July 2026, the palladium cost curve reflects continued upward pressure driven by rising input costs and supply constraints primarily from key producers in Russia and South Africa. Higher processing and environmental compliance costs have pushed marginal producers up the cost curve, tightening the low-cost supply base. The main risk remains geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Russian exports, which represent a significant share of global palladium production. Disruptions could sharply reorder the cost curve and exacerbate market tightness given limited substitution options in automotive catalytic applications.
  • Sibanye Stillwater Q2 2026 Production Report
  • Johnson Matthey 2026 PGM Market Outlook
  • World Platinum Investment Council July 2026 Update
  • Metal Bulletin - Palladium Cost Curve and Market Analysis June 2026
  • Reuters - Palladium Prices and Supply Risks Mid-2026

    • Copper 6.22 (USd/lb.)

  • Copper prices have risen in early July 2026, driven by tighter supply conditions following production cuts in Chile and environmental restrictions in Peru, the top producers. Robust demand from renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors remains supportive. However, uncertainties persist around potential Chinese manufacturing slowdowns and inventory fluctuations in key LME warehouses, which could cap price gains in the near term.
  • Chile's Copper Output Cuts Tighten Market in June 2026
  • LME Copper Inventories Show Steady Decline into July
  • Tesla's Battery Demand Boosts Copper Prices Amid EV Growth
  • China Manufacturing Data Signals Risks to Copper Demand
  • As of July 2026, copper supply is tightening amid slower mine expansion and ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting key producers like Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Demand growth remains robust, driven by sustained electric vehicle production and renewable energy infrastructure deployment, though global economic uncertainties and rising financing costs pose risks to future projects and supply commitments. Inventory levels on major exchanges are at multi-year lows, underscoring tight market conditions and potential for sustained price volatility.
  • International Copper Study Group June 2026 Market Report
  • Chile Copper Production Slows Amid Labor Disputes – Reuters June 2026
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence: Copper Supply Challenges Persist July 2026
  • World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook July 2026: Copper Supply Tightness
  • Bloomberg: Copper Inventories Hit Lowest Since 2021 Amid Supply Risks July 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the global copper cost curve has shifted upward due to rising energy prices and intensified environmental compliance costs notably in Chile and Peru, the two largest producers. Higher operational expenses are pressuring marginal producers, tightening global supply. However, ongoing investments in automation and renewable-powered mining offer potential cost mitigation. Key risks include geopolitical tensions affecting South American mining regions and volatile energy markets, which could exacerbate cost pressures or disrupt supply further.
  • Chile Ministry of Mining Q2 2026 Report
  • International Copper Study Group July 2026 Market Report
  • BHP Investor Presentation Q2 2026 - Cost Trends and Outlook
  • Reuters: Copper miners face rising costs from energy and ESG in 2026
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence: Trends in Copper Production Costs - June 2026

    • 3Mo Aluminum 3,090.50 (USD/MT)

  • 3-month aluminum prices edged lower in June 2026 due to easing concerns over Chinese demand after recent government stimulus measures stabilized industrial activity. Inventory builds in LME warehouses also pressured prices, partially offsetting cost inflation from elevated energy prices impacting producers. A key risk remains persistent global energy volatility that could tighten supply further, while demand uncertainty from slower European manufacturing growth poses downside pressure into Q3.
  • LME Aluminum Inventories and Price Update June 2026
  • Aluminum Prices Slip on Chinese Demand Stabilization – Reuters July 2026
  • ICCO Market Review July 2026: Aluminum Section
  • Energy Costs Push Aluminum Producers’ Margins Lower: Platts Report July 2026
  • In Q3 2026, aluminum supply tightness has intensified due to ongoing production curtailments in China driven by environmental regulation enforcement and power rationing, coupled with reduced output from key global producers amid maintenance cycles. Demand remains robust, supported by sustained automotive and aerospace manufacturing growth and infrastructure investment in emerging markets. The primary risk to the supply-demand balance is geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes and export policies, which could further disrupt refined metal shipments and exacerbate tightness.
  • International Aluminum Institute Q2 2026 Market Report
  • Shanghai Futures Exchange July 2026 Aluminum Inventory Update
  • LME Aluminum Market Report – June 2026
  • Reuters: China’s Aluminum Output Cuts Pressure Global Supply – July 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Aluminum Demand Outlook Q3 2026
  • As of July 2026, the 3-month aluminum cost curve shows upward pressure driven primarily by tightening supply amid ongoing production restraints in key regions such as China and Russia. Energy price volatility, particularly natural gas costs powering smelters, remains a critical cost input influencing short-term curve dynamics. Inventory drawdowns from LME warehouses have reduced buffer stocks, intensifying price sensitivity to further supply disruptions. A key uncertainty is potential policy shifts around environmental regulations impacting smelter operations, which could abruptly alter production costs and market balances.
  • July 2026 LME Aluminum Inventory Report
  • International Aluminium Institute Q2 2026 Market Update
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Aluminum Cost Curve Analysis June 2026
  • Reuters: Energy Price Volatility Drives Aluminum Production Costs, July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Aluminum Supply Risk Rises with Regulatory Crackdown in China, June 2026

    • 3Mo Zinc 3,541.00 (USD/MT)

  • As of early July 2026, the 3-month zinc price has seen mild downward pressure following a rally into mid-2026, primarily due to increased global inventory levels reported by the London Metal Exchange (LME) and subdued demand from key end-use sectors such as galvanizing in automotive and construction. While supply disruptions in major zinc mines remain a risk supporting prices, ongoing concerns around Chinese industrial growth slowdown pose a constraint on near-term zinc demand recovery.
  • July 2026 LME Zinc Inventory Report
  • Fastmarkets: Zinc Market Update July 2026
  • S&P Global: Zinc Outlook Q3 2026
  • In Q2 2026, global zinc supply tightened due to ongoing production cuts in major zinc mines, notably in Peru and Australia, amid labor disputes and environmental permitting delays. Demand remained robust, driven by strong construction activity in Asia and stable galvanizing needs in Europe and North America. Inventory withdrawals from LME warehouses accelerated, signaling tighter market balance. Key risks include further geopolitical disruptions in South America and potential demand shocks from slowed industrial growth in China.
  • International Lead and Zinc Study Group Q2 2026 Market Report
  • Fastmarkets: Zinc Market Tightness to Persist Through 2026
  • LME Zinc Warehouse Reports June 2026
  • CRU Group: Zinc Market Outlook Mid-2026
  • Reuters: Peru Mining Conflicts Weigh on Zinc Output Again in 2026
  • As of July 2026, the 3-month zinc cost curve reveals rising marginal production costs primarily driven by higher energy prices and constrained ore grades. This increase tightens the supply response amid ongoing demand from galvanizing and battery sectors. Inventory withdrawals from LME warehouses have kept upstream supply tight, pushing producers at the margin to ration output. Key uncertainty remains China’s environmental policy shifts which could abruptly disrupt zinc mine supplies, affecting the curve's short-term slope.
  • LME Zinc Market Report June 2026
  • CRU Zinc Cost Curve Analysis Q2 2026
  • International Zinc Association Latest Market Update July 2026
  • S&P Global Platts Zinc Market and Cost Developments, June 2026

    • 3Mo Tin 52,628.00 (USD/MT)

  • As of early July 2026, 3-month tin prices have eased slightly from their mid-2026 peak due to easing supply constraints following restoration of major Southeast Asian mining operations. However, robust demand in electronics and electric vehicle sectors continues to support prices near multi-year highs. The primary risk remains geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes and potential export restrictions from key producing countries, which could tighten supply unexpectedly and drive further price volatility.
  • LME Tin Prices and Market Report June 2026
  • International Tin Association Monthly Market Update June 2026
  • Tin Market Overview: Supply Recovery and Demand Outlook, July 2026
  • Commodity Markets: Tin Price Pressures Amid Export Controls Risk
  • In the first half of 2026, global tin supply has tightened moderately due to declining output from Southeast Asian mines, notably Indonesia and Myanmar, amid regulatory restrictions and lower ore grades. Demand remains robust, driven by sustained growth in electronics manufacturing and emerging battery technologies. Inventories on the LME have drawn down, reflecting tightness, though potential new capacity expansions in South America could alleviate pressure later in 2026. Key risks include geopolitical disruptions in Southeast Asia and unpredictable smelter output recovery timelines, which may exacerbate short-term volatility.
  • International Tin Association Q2 2026 Market Report
  • LME Tin Stocks Weekly Update - June 2026
  • Reuters: Southeast Asia Tin Production Disruptions Persist, June 15 2026
  • CRU Group: Tin Supply Outlook H2 2026
  • Bloomberg: Electronics Demand Keeps Tin Tight in 2026, July 1 2026
  • As of early July 2026, the 3-month tin cost curve shows a modest upward shift driven by tightening supply due to ongoing disruptions at Southeast Asian smelters and reduced scrap availability. High energy costs continue to elevate the production cost base, pushing several marginal producers closer to their breakeven points. However, demand uncertainty from the electronics and EV sectors, amid slowing global growth and potential substitution risks, poses a downside to future pricing and cost recovery along the curve.
  • International Tin Association Monthly Market Update July 2026
  • LME Tin 3-Month Price and Cost Analysis June 2026
  • CRU Group 3Q 2026 Tin Market Forecast and Cost Curve
  • Metal Bulletin: Southeast Asian Smelter Disruptions Tighten Tin Supply, July 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Tin Market Cost Pressures Amid Energy Price Volatility, July 2026

    • Nickel 16,424.00 (USD/MT)

  • Nickel prices in mid-2026 have declined modestly due to easing concerns over supply disruptions from Indonesia and the Philippines, following government allowances for increased export quotas and improved mining operations. The market remains sensitive to demand outlook revisions amid slower-than-expected growth in electric vehicle battery manufacturing, which is the largest end-user sector. A key risk is potential geopolitical tensions in key producing regions that could abruptly restrict output, tightening supply and driving prices higher.
  • July 2026 LME Nickel Price Report
  • Indonesia Plans to Boost Nickel Exports in H2 2026
  • Battery Sector Demand Slows, Impacting Nickel Consumption
  • CRU Group June 2026 Nickel Market Outlook
  • Nickel supply tightened in H1 2026 due to lower output from major producers in Indonesia and the Philippines, driven by regulatory delays and environmental restrictions. Elevated demand from the EV battery sector continues to support robust consumption growth, especially in Asia. However, elevated nickel prices and potential geopolitical tensions in key mining regions pose downside risks to supply stability and market balance heading into H2 2026.
  • International Nickel Study Group June 2026 Market Report
  • IEA Critical Minerals Market 2026 Report (June Edition)
  • Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Nickel Market Commentary July 2026
  • Reuters: Indonesia NL Mining Output Falls Amid Stricter Regulations July 2026
  • SP Global Commodity Insights Nickel Market Brief July 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the nickel cost curve is increasingly influenced by rising input costs such as energy and labor, pushing the marginal production cost higher. Growth in EV battery demand is tightening supply, pressuring producers at the higher end of the curve. However, geopolitical uncertainties around Indonesian export controls and potential new mine disruptions represent significant risks to cost stability and supply reliability.
  • Benchmark Mineral Intelligence July 2026 Nickel Cost Update
  • LME Quarterly Report June 2026 - Nickel Market Outlook
  • Wood Mackenzie Nickel Market Analysis, Q2 2026
  • Indonesian Export Policy Impact on Nickel Costs, June 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Nickel Production Costs July 2026

    • Steel 583.00 (USD/MT)

  • Steel prices in mid-2026 have softened modestly following a robust rally in Q1 driven by strong infrastructure demand in China and tighter global scrap steel availability. The moderation reflects easing input cost pressures, especially lower iron ore prices and improved supply from Indian mills. However, rising geopolitical tensions impacting shipping logistics and potential policy shifts on emissions regulation remain key risks that could tighten supply further or disrupt trade flows.
  • July 2026 Steel Price Update - MEPS
  • World Steel Association July 2026 Market Brief
  • Iron Ore Price Impact on Steel Costs - S&P Global, June 2026
  • China Infrastructure Spend and Steel Demand - Reuters June 2026
  • As of mid-2026, global steel supply is moderately expanding driven by recovery in Chinese output alongside steady increases in Indian and Southeast Asian production. Demand growth is steady but tempered by cautious construction and automotive sector activity, especially amid elevated input costs and new environmental regulations. Key risk to the balance remains geopolitical tensions affecting raw material shipments and uncertain pace of infrastructure stimulus in major consuming economies, which could tighten supply chains or depress demand unexpectedly.
  • World Steel Association July 2026 Short Range Outlook
  • International Steel Dynamics Q2 2026 Production Update
  • CRU Steel Market Monitor July 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Steel Supply-Demand Outlook July 2026
  • Reuters: Steel Prices and Output Trends in July 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the global steel cost curve shows a flattening trend due to easing iron ore and coking coal prices amid subdued Chinese steel demand and cautious restocking in construction sectors. Energy costs remain a moderate upside risk, particularly in Europe where power prices have recently rebounded. Supply-side constraints from environmental policies and carbon pricing in major producers are pushing up the marginal cost brackets. Key uncertainty revolves around the trajectory of raw material markets, notably metallurgical coal, and potential policy shifts affecting emissions compliance costs.
  • Steel Production Cost Trends Q2 2026 – World Steel Association
  • Iron Ore and Coal Prices Pressure Steel Margins, July 2026 – S&P Global Platts
  • Analysis: Impact of Carbon Pricing on Steel Cost Curve, June 2026 – International Energy Agency
  • European Power Costs and Steelmaking Margins Update, June 2026 – Financial Times
  • China Steel Demand Outlook & Cost Pressures, June 2026 – Bloomberg Intelligence

    • Corn 4.55 (USd/bu.)

  • As of early July 2026, corn prices have edged modestly higher due to tightening U.S. exportable supplies amid lower-than-expected crop yields reported in key Midwest states. Weather disruptions during the critical pollination phase constrained domestic output, while sustained strong demand from China and Mexico supports price resilience. Risks include ongoing weather variability through the summer and potential shifts in ethanol mandates, which could either alleviate or further pressure market tightness.
  • USDA June 2026 Crop Production Report
  • USDA WASDE July 2026: Corn Outlook
  • CBOT Corn Futures July 2026 Market Summary
  • Reuters: China Corn Import Demand Strengthens Prices in Mid-2026
  • As of early July 2026, USDA's latest WASDE report indicates a modest tightening in global corn supply due to slower-than-expected crop progress in major exporters like the US and Brazil amid adverse weather. This has bolstered price support despite persistent demand uncertainties linked to biofuel mandates and China's import levels. Key risks include escalating climate variability potentially impacting yields further and evolving trade policies affecting export flows, which could disrupt current supply-demand balances.
  • USDA July 2026 WASDE Report
  • USDA Crop Progress Report, Week Ending June 28, 2026
  • Brazilian Corn Crop Delays Impact Supply Outlook - Reuters July 2026
  • CFTC Commitments of Traders Report, June 30, 2026
  • IFPRI Global Food Policy Report 2026 - Focus on Corn Markets
  • As of early July 2026, the global corn cost curve indicates a modest upward shift driven primarily by rising input costs—fertilizer prices have surged due to ongoing supply chain constraints and geopolitical tensions affecting key exporters. U.S. Midwest feedstock availability tightens production efficiency in the lowest-cost tier, compressing margins among marginal producers. Key risk remains weather variability in the U.S. and Brazil, which could exacerbate cost disparities and supply tightness, pressuring prices and altering the cost curve dynamic in the coming months.
  • USDA July 2026 Feed Outlook Highlights
  • Fertilizer Costs Drive Changes in Corn Production Economics – World Bank, June 2026
  • Agri Commodity Cost Curves and Market Outlook Q2-Q3 2026 – CME Group
  • 2026 Midyear Corn Supply-Demand and Cost Analysis – International Grains Council
  • Impact of Weather Variability on US Corn Production Costs – USDA Climate Report July 2026

    • Wheat 6.09 (USd/bu.)

  • Wheat prices have declined moderately in early July 2026 following stronger-than-expected global production forecasts from the International Grains Council’s June update. Robust yields in North America and the Black Sea region have eased concerns over supply tightness. However, weather uncertainty in key exporters like India and Canada, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions impacting Black Sea exports, presents a risk for price volatility later in the season.
  • IGC Grain Market Report June 2026
  • USDA July 2026 Wheat Outlook
  • Bloomberg: Wheat Prices Ease on Supply Gains, July 2 2026
  • Reuters: Ukraine War and Weather Risks Keep Wheat Market Nervous, July 3 2026
  • As of mid-2026, global wheat supply tightness persists due to adverse weather in key exporters including Canada and Russia, limiting production growth. Demand remains strong, driven by sustained imports from major consumers China and Egypt amid steady global food demand recovery. Elevated input costs and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks to supply chains and export volumes, creating price volatility in grain markets through Q3 2026.
  • USDA July 2026 Wheat Outlook
  • International Grains Council Grain Market Report - July 2026
  • FAO Global Wheat Supply and Demand Brief July 2026
  • Reuters: Wheat Prices Firm on Weather Concerns, July 2026
  • World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook July 2026
  • As of July 2026, the global wheat cost curve shows pressure from increased input costs and supply chain disruptions amid adverse weather in key producing regions like the US and Ukraine. Rising fertilizer and energy prices have shifted the marginal cost higher, favoring production in lower-cost areas such as parts of Canada and Australia. However, weather volatility and geopolitical tensions remain key risks that could further tighten supply and steepen the cost curve.
  • USDA July 2026 WASDE Report on Wheat Costs
  • International Grains Council July 2026 Grain Market Report
  • World Bank Commodities Price Data: Wheat Costs June 2026
  • Bloomberg: Wheat Production Costs Rise Ahead of 2026-27 Season
  • Reuters: Weather Impact Tightens Wheat Supply Outlook July 2026

    • Oats 2.95 (USd/bu.)

  • Oats prices have shown moderate gains in mid-2026, driven primarily by tight supply conditions in key producing regions such as the US and Canada due to adverse weather patterns this spring. Demand remains steady, supported by growth in the health-conscious food segment, but rising input costs for farmers and uncertain export logistics pose downside risks. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming USDA reports for crop progress and global trade developments to assess near-term price stability.
  • USDA Crop Progress Report - June 2026
  • North American Oats Market Tightens Amid Weather Issues - Reuters July 2026
  • Agri Commodity Outlook: Oats Supply and Demand Trends - USDA FAS June 2026
  • As of mid-2026, global oats supply has seen slight tightening due to below-average yields in major producing regions, notably Canada and the EU, driven by adverse weather patterns in spring. Demand remains steady, supported by expanding use in food products and animal feed, with moderate growth in alternative dairy markets. A key risk is ongoing climate variability potentially disrupting the already pressured supply, while trade dynamics, especially export restrictions from key exporters, continue to influence market balance.
  • USDA July 2026 Oats Outlook Report
  • Canada Grain Commission: Canadian Oats Production Update July 2026
  • European Commission Crop Monitoring July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Oats Futures Gain on Supply Concerns - July 2026
  • International Grains Council: Grain Market Report July 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the oats cost curve shows a moderate upward shift driven by rising input costs, particularly fertilizers and energy, amid constrained acreage due to competing crops gaining favor. North American production remains stable but output growth is capped by weather variability and soil health issues. Processing capacity expansions are underway, but logistical bottlenecks continue to limit efficient scale-up. Key downside risks include volatility in fuel prices and climate-driven yield fluctuations impacting marginal producers.
  • USDA Grain Cost Reports June 2026
  • Canadian Oat Production and Cost Trends Q2 2026
  • Raiffeisen Agro Commodities Monthly July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Oats Prices and Cost Drivers June 2026
  • European Commission Agricultural Market Brief, June 2026

    • Rough Rice 13.28 (USD/cwt)

  • As of early July 2026, rough rice prices have edged modestly higher, driven primarily by concerns over below-average crop yields in key producing regions such as the U.S. and Southeast Asia amid adverse weather conditions in the first half of 2026. Supply tightening is exacerbated by sustained export demand from major importers including West Africa. However, uncertainties remain around the upcoming monsoon season's impact on South Asian production and potential policy export restrictions from key exporters like India, which could sharply influence price volatility going forward.
  • USDA Crop Progress and Supply Outlook – July 2026
  • International Rice Research Institute July 2026 Market Update
  • FAO Food Price Monitoring Bulletins - July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Weather Woes Push Rough Rice Prices Higher Amid Export Demand, July 2026
  • As of July 2026, rough rice supply tightness persists due to delayed harvests in major producing regions caused by unseasonal rains and flooding. USDA's June 2026 report lowered production estimates for the U.S. and Southeast Asia, tightening global stocks-to-use ratios. Export demand remains firm, especially from key Asian importers, supporting sustained price premiums. Key risk lies in weather volatility during the critical mid-summer crop development window, which could further threaten yields and exacerbate supply constraints.
  • USDA June 2026 Crop Production Report
  • USDA July 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
  • International Rice Research Institute June 2026 Market Outlook
  • Reuters: Floods Hit Thailand Rice Production, Prices Firm
  • Oryza June 2026 Rice Market Review
  • As of mid-2026, the rough rice cost curve shows upward pressure driven primarily by rising input costs, notably fertilizer and fuel prices, which have increased farmers' breakeven levels. Weather-related yield variability in key producing regions, particularly in the southern U.S. and parts of Asia, has tightened supply, pushing higher-cost producers closer to the margin. Ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting trade routes add uncertainty to both export volumes and input availability, which could further steepen the cost curve or lead to forced supply contractions.
  • USDA July 2026 Rice Outlook Report
  • International Rice Research Institute: 2026 Mid-Year Production Analysis
  • FAO June 2026 Food Price Index and Rice Market Review
  • Platts July 2026 Analysis: Fertilizer Price Impact on Grain Cost Curves
  • Reuters June 2026: Geopolitical Risks Heighten Concern Over Rice Export Flows

    • Soybean 10.24 (USd/bu.)

  • As of early July 2026, soybean prices have edged slightly lower driven by improved weather forecasts for major South American producers, particularly Brazil and Argentina, leading to expectations of higher crop yields. Additionally, slower Chinese import demand amid economic growth concerns has capped upside. Risks to the outlook include potential US planting delays due to localized drought and emerging trade tensions impacting export dynamics, which could tighten supplies and stabilize or increase prices.
  • USDA Crop Progress Report - June 30, 2026
  • Brazil Weather Update and Soybean Outlook, June 2026
  • China's Import Slowdown Dampens Soybean Demand, July 2026
  • Trade Tensions Cast Uncertainty on US Soybean Exports, July 2026
  • As of mid-2026, global soybean supply shows mixed signals with production slightly up due to favorable weather in key exporters like Brazil and the U.S. However, demand growth is moderating amid slower feed sector expansion in China and increased competition from alternative protein sources. Export logistics remain a constraint, especially with lingering infrastructure bottlenecks in South America. Supply-side risks include potential climate variability in the U.S. Midwest late-season, while demand uncertainty centers on evolving Chinese import policies and global economic growth pace.
  • USDA July 2026 Soybean Outlook Report
  • Brazil 2026 Soybean Harvest Report - CONAB
  • China Slowing Soybean Imports in H1 2026 - Reuters
  • South America Export Logistics Challenges Impacting Soybeans - Bloomberg 2026
  • International Grains Council July 2026 Soybean Market Brief
  • In mid-2026, the soybean cost curve shows a moderate increase in break-even production costs mainly driven by rising fertilizer and energy prices amid tighter global supply conditions. South American producers face cost pressures due to adverse weather impacting yields, shifting supply dynamics upward on the curve. A key uncertainty remains potential export restrictions from major producers and fluctuating biofuel demand, which could alter cost competitiveness and market positioning quickly.
  • USDA June 2026 Soybean Production Costs Report
  • Brazilian Soybean Cost Trends Q2 2026 - CONAB Report
  • Argentine Soybean Growers Face Rising Costs - Reuters June 2026
  • Energy and Fertilizer Price Impact on Crops - IEA Analysis June 2026
  • Global Soybean Supply Dynamics and Cost Structure - Bloomberg July 2026

    • Canola 752.40 (CAD/MT)

  • Canola prices in early July 2026 have shown moderate strength, driven by tightening supply forecasts due to lower-than-expected yields in key Canadian growing regions amid adverse weather conditions. Increased global demand, particularly from biofuel and edible oil sectors, supports firm pricing. However, potential yield recoveries in mid-summer and geopolitical uncertainties impacting logistics remain risks that may cap upside momentum in the near term.
  • July 2026 Canadian Crop Report Highlights Lower Canola Yields
  • Global Canola Demand Boosts Prices Amid Supply Concerns – Reuters July 2026
  • July 2026 Canola Market Update – ICE Futures Canada
  • Canadian Canola Harvest Outlook and Weather Risks – Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, July 2026
  • As of July 2026, global canola supply tightens due to lower Canadian output amid adverse spring weather impacting yields. Canadian stocks dropped 12% from last season, tightening exportable surplus and supporting firm prices. Demand from EU and Asia remains robust, driven by biofuel mandates and protein meal needs. However, uncertainties around late-season weather in Australia and Black Sea region export logistics pose downside risks to near-term supply availability.
  • Canada Canola Outlook July 2026
  • USDA July 2026 Oilseeds Supply and Demand Report
  • ICIS Canola Market Update July 2026
  • European Commission July 2026 Biofuels Demand Forecast
  • Australian Canola Production Risks in 2026 Season
  • As of mid-2026, the canola cost curve reflects rising input costs, particularly fertilizer and fuel, tightening margins for higher-cost producers. Canadian Prairie supply disruptions earlier this season pressured prices, benefiting more efficient growers at the lower end of the cost curve. Ongoing volatility in global vegetable oil markets and potential regulatory shifts in sustainable farming practices constitute key uncertainties that could recalibrate production costs and competitive positioning through late 2026.
  • Canola Cost Structure and Market Outlook - July 2026
  • Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada July 2026 Canola Market Analysis
  • Canola Pricing Dynamics and Production Costs, TD Economics July 2026
  • Global Vegetable Oil Trends Impacting Canola Producers - IEG Market Update July 2026

    • Cocoa 5,384.00 (USD/MT)

  • As of early July 2026, cocoa prices have experienced moderate gains driven by tightening supplies from West African producers, notably Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, where recent adverse weather and labor strikes have constrained output. Demand remains steady with robust chocolate consumption forecasts in Europe and North America. However, price gains face potential headwinds from an uncertain macroeconomic environment, including a slowing global economy, which could dampen demand growth in key markets.
  • ICE July 2026 Cocoa Report
  • World Cocoa Foundation Mid-2026 Production Outlook
  • Reuters: Cocoa Prices Gain on Supply Concerns in West Africa, July 2026
  • ICCO Quarterly Bulletin June 2026
  • As of mid-2026, cocoa supply tightness has intensified due to ongoing production shortfalls in West Africa, primarily driven by adverse weather impacting Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana harvests. Global demand remains robust, fueled by rising chocolate consumption in emerging markets and confectionery innovations. Inventory drawdowns continue, pressuring prices upward. Key risks include the potential for further climate disruptions and geopolitical instability affecting West African exports, which could exacerbate supply constraints or create logistic bottlenecks.
  • ICCO Cocoa Market Report June 2026
  • West African Cocoa Output Hits 5-Year Low, July 2026
  • FOB Cocoa Prices Firm Amid Tight Global Supplies, July 2026
  • Cocoa Sector Faces Climate Risks, Industry Report July 2026
  • Ghana Cocoa Board Export Update June 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the cocoa cost curve shows a modest upward shift driven primarily by increased input costs in West African producing countries, notably rising wages and fertilizer prices. Weather-related yield volatility in Ivory Coast and Ghana tightened supply margins, raising marginal production costs. However, premium-quality and higher-yield producers maintain cost advantages, supporting price resilience. Key risks include potential climate disruptions during the upcoming main harvest season and geopolitical factors affecting transport and export logistics, which could further pressure the cost structure and disrupt supply chains.
  • 2026 Cocoa Sector Report - ICCO June Update
  • West African Cocoa Production Costs Rise Amid Inflation Pressures
  • Cocoa Prices and Supply Risks in 2026: Markets Update
  • Focus on Fertilizer Costs Impacting Cocoa Producers – FAO June 2026
  • Global Cocoa Supply Outlook and Cost Curve Analysis – S&P Global July 2026

    • Coffee 3.10 (USd/lb.)

  • As of early July 2026, coffee prices have edged higher amid tightening supply forecasts due to adverse weather disruptions in key producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam. Demand remains robust, particularly from specialty coffee sectors in North America and Europe, supporting the recent gains. However, ongoing uncertainties around El Niño’s intensity pose downside risks to production forecasts, alongside potential shifts in major consumer demand patterns influenced by macroeconomic conditions.
  • June 2026 ICO Monthly Coffee Market Report
  • Brazil Coffee Crop Update - July 2026
  • Coffee Prices Rise on Weather Worries and Strong Demand - Bloomberg July 3, 2026
  • Vietnam Coffee Production Outlook Weighed by El Niño Effects - Reuters June 25, 2026
  • As of mid-2026, global coffee supply is tightening primarily due to lower-than-expected harvests in Brazil and Vietnam caused by adverse weather and persistent labor shortages. Demand remains robust, particularly from North America and Asia, sustaining upward price pressure. However, uncertainties regarding El Niño's impact on key growing regions and potential logistical disruptions pose downside risks to supply stability through late 2026.
  • July 2026 ICO Coffee Market Report
  • Brazil Coffee Production Decline Hits Market – Reuters July 2026
  • Vietnam Coffee Exports Drop Amid Labor Shortage – Bloomberg July 2, 2026
  • USDA July 2026 Coffee Outlook Report
  • El Niño Raises Concerns for Coffee Crop Stability in 2026 – S&P Global Platts June 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the coffee cost curve shows rising production costs driven primarily by climate-induced yield volatility in major origins like Brazil and Colombia, alongside increased fertilizer and logistics expenses. High-altitude Arabica growers face disproportionate cost pressure, moving the marginal cost of production higher and squeezing supply at lower price points. Key risk includes potential El Niño effects disrupting seasonal harvests further, exacerbating cost pressures and possibly leading to tighter global supply amid uneven demand recovery.
  • International Coffee Organization July 2026 Market Report
  • Brazilian Coffee Growers Association: Production Costs Mid-2026 Update
  • Rabobank Commodity Cost Curve Analysis: Coffee July 2026
  • Bloomberg: Coffee Prices Reflect Rising Costs on Climatic Risks
  • USDA Coffee Outlook June 2026: Cost and Supply Dynamics

    • Sugar 0.15 (USd/lb.)

  • Sugar prices in mid-2026 have edged higher, supported by tighter supply dynamics due to lower production forecasts from top producers Brazil and India amid adverse weather events. Export restrictions in key producing countries have also curtailed available volumes on global markets. However, demand growth remains moderate, with concerns over potential policy shifts in biofuel mandates posing risk to future consumption balance. Inventory levels persist at comfortable but declining thresholds, creating sensitivity to any supply shocks.
  • July 2026 International Sugar Organization Market Report
  • Brazil’s 2025/26 Sugarcane Crop Outlook Tightens Supply
  • India’s Sugar Exports Restricted Amid Domestic Shortages
  • Global Sugar Inventories Shrink, Demand Outlook Cautious
  • As of mid-2026, global sugar supply tightness persists mainly due to adverse weather impacts in leading producers like Brazil and India, constraining output growth. Demand remains firm, especially from the food and beverage sectors in emerging markets, supporting elevated price levels. Key risks include potential production rebounds in the second half of the year and policy shifts on biofuel mandates that could alter consumption patterns, which inject uncertainty into medium-term market balance forecasts.
  • USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 2026
  • International Sugar Organization Market Report June 2026
  • Brazil Sugarcane Crop Update, CONAB June 2026
  • Reuters: Global Sugar Prices Firm on Supply Concerns, July 2, 2026
  • ICSC Sugar Trends Report Q2 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the global sugar cost curve exhibits upward pressure, driven primarily by rising input costs such as fertilizers and energy, combined with adverse weather impacting key producers like Brazil and India. Supply constraints have elevated marginal production costs, pushing higher-cost mills closer to breakeven or losses, tightening global availability. A principal risk remains volatile weather patterns and geopolitical tensions affecting export logistics, with potential to further disrupt supply and steepen the cost curve beyond current forecasts.
  • ICUMSA Mid-2026 Sugar Market Report
  • UN FAO July 2026 Sugar Price and Cost Analysis
  • Brazil’s 2026 Sugarcane Costs Surge Amid Energy Price Gains - Reuters June 2026
  • ICIS Sugar Cost Curve Update July 2026
  • International Sugar Organization Monthly Report June 2026

    • Orange Juice 1.71 (USd/lb.)

  • As of July 2026, orange juice prices have risen modestly driven by reduced Brazilian orange output due to adverse weather conditions in early 2026 impacting the main crop yields. Supply constraints compounded by logistical bottlenecks have tightened inventories, supporting price firmness. Market participants remain cautious about potential volatility ahead given uncertainties in Florida’s 2026 harvest prospects, susceptible to hurricane risks and regulatory changes in export logistics.
  • Brazil’s 2026 Orange Crop Outlook and Impact on Juice Prices
  • Florida Citrus Reports July 2026: Production and Price Trends
  • ICE Futures: Orange Juice Futures Price Update July 2026
  • Reuters: Weather and Supply Chain Effects on Orange Juice Prices in Mid-2026
  • As of mid-2026, global orange juice supply is tightening due to below-average yields in Brazil stemming from adverse weather and higher input costs, constraining exports. Demand has rebounded in North America and Europe post-pandemic, supporting prices at near 5-year highs. However, volatility in Brazilian logistics and potential frost in key growing regions pose risks that could exacerbate supply deficits and price swings into Q3 2026.
  • USDA July 2026 Citrus Report
  • Brazil Orange Crop Outlook - June 2026
  • FAO Food Price Monitoring: Citrus July 2026
  • Orange Juice Futures Rally on Supply Concerns - Reuters July 1, 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the orange juice cost curve reflects rising production costs driven mainly by adverse weather patterns in Brazil—the largest global producer—leading to reduced yields and tightening supply. Inflationary pressures on labor, transportation, and fertilizer costs add to upward cost pressures, pushing marginal production higher. Key uncertainty remains around weather volatility in the upcoming Brazilian season, which could either exacerbate shortages or improve supply, thus materially influencing orange juice prices and trade flows.
  • USDA June 2026 Citrus Forecast Report
  • Brazilian Citrus Industry Association Quarterly Report July 2026
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: Orange Juice Supply-Demand Outlook Q2 2026
  • Reuters: Weather Disruptions Tighten Orange Juice Margins June 2026
  • ICE Futures U.S. Orange Juice Futures Market Report July 2026

    • Cotton 0.77 (USd/lb.)

  • Cotton prices in mid-2026 have softened modestly following a late-2025 peak driven by strong demand from textile producers and tight global supply, notably constrained by adverse weather disruptions in key growing regions such as Brazil and West Africa. Inventories remain below the five-year average, supporting prices despite recent pressure from a stronger US dollar and concerns over slower demand from China amid its economic cooling. Key risks include potential yield recovery from upcoming harvests and volatility in energy costs, which affect production and transport expenses.
  • USDA Cotton Market Outlook July 2026
  • ICAC Quarterly Cotton Market Review April 2026
  • Cotton Prices Ease as US Dollar Strengthens - Reuters June 2026
  • Brazil’s 2026 Cotton Crop Faces Weather-Driven Risks - Bloomberg July 2026
  • As of mid-2026, global cotton supply is tightening due to smaller yields in major producing regions like India and the US, driven by adverse weather and higher input costs. Demand remains steady, supported by robust apparel manufacturing in Asia, but growth is constrained by inflationary pressures on consumer spending. Key risk is the potential disruption from trade policy uncertainties amid shifting tariff regimes, particularly between China and cotton-exporting countries, which could unsettle market balances and price stability.
  • USDA July 2026 Cotton Outlook Report
  • ICAC Cotton Market Review June 2026
  • China Cotton Import Policy Update, June 2026
  • Bloomberg: Cotton Prices Rise Amid Supply Concerns - July 2026
  • FAO July 2026 Agricultural Market Report – Fiber Crops
  • As of July 2026, the cotton cost curve shows a notable upward shift in break-even production costs, driven primarily by rising input prices—especially fertilizers and labor—and ongoing climatic yield challenges in major producing regions like the US and India. This has compressed low-cost producers’ margins and elevated global price support levels. A key uncertainty remains the potential impact of new biotech seed adoption and government subsidy changes, which could alter cost dynamics and supply responsiveness in the medium term.
  • Cotton Production Costs Latest Report – USDA June 2026
  • ICAC Midyear 2026 Cotton Market Costs and Profitability Update
  • Bloomberg: Cotton Producers Face Rising Break-Even Costs Amid Input Price Surge
  • FAO Crop Prospects July 2026: Cotton Cost and Yield Pressures

    • Lumber 0.00 (USD/1000 board feet)

  • As of early July 2026, lumber prices have edged moderately higher following tighter North American supply, driven by ongoing supply chain adjustments and reduced Canadian output after recent forest pest activity. Demand in housing starts remains stable but subdued amid elevated mortgage rates, tempering upside pressure. Key downside risk stems from potential demand contraction if the U.S. housing market weakens further due to rising interest rates or economic slowdown.
  • US Lumber Prices Rise Amid Supply Tightening
  • Canada Lumber Output Declines After Pest Infestation
  • July 2026 NAHB Housing Market Index Shows Soft Demand
  • Lumber Futures and Inventory Trends - July 2026
  • As of mid-2026, lumber supply tightness continues due to slowed North American mill capacity expansion amid elevated demand from residential construction rebound and rebuilding after recent wildfire seasons. Supply chain disruptions from persistent transportation bottlenecks and labor shortages constrain availability, supporting lumber prices despite moderating housing starts. Key risks include potential downturns in U.S. homebuilding activity and policy changes impacting forestry regulations, which could weigh on demand or supply dynamics in the second half of 2026.
  • June 2026 US Softwood Lumber Production and Inventory Report
  • Canada Lumber Supply Tight Amid Strong Domestic Demand - May 2026
  • Lumber Prices Firm as Wildfire Recovery Boosts Demand - June 2026
  • North American Lumber Market Outlook Q2 2026 - RISI Report
  • US Housing Market Contributes to Lumber Demand Volatility - June 2026
  • As of July 2026, lumber prices continue to ascend along the cost curve driven mainly by tightening supply amid reduced North American timber harvests and sustained construction activity in housing markets. Elevated transportation costs and labor constraints upstream contribute to the upward pressure on production costs. Risk to this trajectory comes from potential demand softening due to rising mortgage rates and possible regulatory changes impacting logging operations, which could disrupt supply and price dynamics in coming months.
  • NA Lumber Market Update June 2026
  • US Lumber Inventories and Cost Factors – June 2026 Report
  • Housing Starts and Lumber Demand Trends, July 2026
  • Lumber Price Movements Reflect Supply Tightening: S&P Global Insights, July 2026
  • Transport and Labor Bottlenecks Pressure Lumber Production Costs

    • Ethanol 2.16 (USD/gal.)

  • Ethanol prices in mid-2026 have eased slightly from their late Q2 peak due to ample corn supply following a strong harvest and improving distillate fuel inventories. However, rising gasoline prices and renewed biofuel blending mandates in key U.S. states sustain upward price pressure. The main downside risk remains the potential for adverse weather impacting corn yields in the late summer, which could tighten feedstock availability and push ethanol prices higher again.
  • USDA July 2026 Feed Grains Outlook
  • EIA Weekly Biofuels Price Data - June 2026
  • Renewed State Biofuel Mandates Support Ethanol Demand - Reuters June 2026
  • Agricultural Weather Outlook Highlights Risks to Corn Crop - NOAA June 30, 2026
  • As of mid-2026, global ethanol supply has tightened due to slower U.S. corn harvest projections and tighter Brazilian sugarcane outputs, key feedstocks for ethanol production. Demand remains firm, supported by U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates and increased adoption of ethanol blends internationally. However, rising feedstock prices and geopolitical uncertainties in major exporters pose downside risks to both supply availability and cost competitiveness, potentially pressuring margins and expansion plans in the sector.
  • USDA July 2026 Feed Outlook Report
  • EIA Monthly Energy Review July 2026 - Ethanol Production and Use
  • Brazil Sugarcane Crop Outlook June 2026 - CONAB
  • EPA Renewable Fuel Standard 2026 Volumes Final Rule
  • Reuters: Tight U.S. Ethanol Margins Amid Rising Corn Costs - June 2026
  • As of July 2026, the ethanol cost curve shows upward pressure driven primarily by rising corn prices linked to delayed crop yields and tighter global grain supplies. Production costs have increased unevenly across regions, with mid-tier producers facing margin compression amid higher feedstock expenses. A key uncertainty remains the evolving U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) blending mandates expected in late Q3, which could either alleviate or intensify demand-side pressures depending on mandate adjustments.
  • USDA June 2026 Grain and Ethanol Outlook
  • EIA Monthly Energy Review June 2026 - Ethanol Costs and Production
  • Renewable Fuels Association: Ethanol Cost Trends Q2 2026
  • Platts Analytics Report on Biofuels Cost Dynamics, June 2026
  • Reuters: US Biofuel Mandate Review Anticipated in Q3 2026

    • Live Cattle 2.39 (USd/lb.)

  • Live cattle prices in mid-2026 have shown moderate gains, supported by tightening supplies amid herd rebuilding efforts slowed by drought conditions in key U.S. cattle-raising regions. Stronger domestic beef demand and resilient export openings to Asian markets underpin price support. However, downside risks include persistent inflationary pressures on feed costs and potential policy shifts affecting trade tariffs, which could constrain margin expansion and weigh on futures.
  • USDA July 2026 Cattle Report Highlights Supply Tightening
  • Live Cattle Futures Rise on Supply Concerns and Export Demand
  • Beef Supply Chain Update Amid Dry Weather Challenges – Reuters July 2026
  • Agricultural Inflation Pressures Impacting Cattle Production Costs – Bloomberg July 2026
  • As of early July 2026, live cattle supplies show modest tightening driven by delayed herd expansion amid higher feed costs and recent drought conditions in key producing regions. Demand remains resilient domestically and internationally but faces downside risks from rising beef prices and potential slowing consumption in major export markets. Uncertainty persists around the impact of ongoing trade negotiations and weather volatility on feeder cattle placements and cattle marketings in the second half of 2026.
  • USDA June 2026 Cattle Report
  • USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook July 2026
  • CME Group: Live Cattle Market Commentary June 2026
  • Rabobank Global Beef Quarterly Q2 2026
  • USDA ERS: Feed Cost Pressures and Cattle Herd Trends, June 2026
  • As of mid-2026, the live cattle cost curve shows upward pressure on break-even costs driven by rising feed and labor expenses amid tighter supply conditions in key U.S. producing regions. Increased feed grain prices, linked to persistent global weather disruptions, have shifted cost structures higher, particularly for marginal producers. This trend constrains supply response despite firm demand, heightening price volatility risk as macroeconomic uncertainties and trade policy developments may impact export demand and input cost trajectories.
  • USDA July 2026 Livestock & Feed Brief
  • CME Live Cattle Futures Report – June 2026
  • Rabobank Midyear Outlook: Livestock Sector Cost Pressures
  • FARM Journal: Live Cattle Cost Trends and Producer Margins July 2026
  • USDA WASDE Report July 2026 – Feed and Livestock Summary

    • Feeder Cattle 3.61 (USd/lb.)

  • Feeder cattle prices in mid-2026 have exhibited mild volatility but remain generally resilient due to sustained domestic demand for beef and improved feed grain supplies lowering production costs. Seasonal factors and tightening slaughter cattle supplies have supported prices. However, rising global economic uncertainties, particularly linked to shifting trade policies and feed cost inflation due to variable weather patterns, pose downside risks to near-term price stability.
  • USDA July 2026 Cattle On Feed Report
  • USDA Livestock Market Report June 2026
  • CME Group Feeder Cattle Futures Market Summary July 2026
  • Reuters: US Feeder Cattle Prices Steady on Strong Demand, July 2026
  • Feeder cattle supplies in mid-2026 are tightening due to prolonged drought conditions across key U.S. ranching regions, reducing available cattle for feeding. This supply constraint is supporting feeder cattle prices despite moderate demand growth driven by recovering meat exports. However, ongoing weather volatility and feed cost inflation pose risks to cattle placements and demand estimates in H2 2026.
  • USDA July 2026 Cattle on Feed Report
  • USDA July 2026 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
  • July 2026 USDA Feedlot Summary Highlights
  • Jim Robb on Cattle Market Tightening and Weather Impact, June 2026
  • Meat Export Growth Lifts Feeder Demand - Rabobank July 2026 Report
  • As of mid-2026, the feeder cattle cost curve shows rising production costs driven primarily by sustained higher feed prices due to adverse weather impacting corn and soybean yields. This price pressure is tightening margins for mid-tier producers, pushing supply consolidation toward larger, more cost-efficient operations. A key risk remains potential shifts in export demand and feed grain availability, which could further disrupt supply balance and producer profitability in the near term.
  • USDA Feedlot Report June 2026 Highlights
  • CME Group Feeder Cattle Futures Market Commentary July 2026
  • Rabobank 2026 Mid-Year Agri Commodity Cost Outlook – Cattle Sector
  • National Cattlemen’s Beef Association July 2026 Market Analysis
  • Agricultural Market Insights – Impact of Feed Inputs on Cattle Costs, June 2026

    • Lean Hogs 0.99 (USd/lb.)

  • Lean hogs prices have edged modestly lower in July 2026 amid ample supplies pressured by resilient pork output and moderate consumer demand growth ahead of fall BBQ season. Weaker export demand, particularly from key Asian markets adjusting to lower purchasing power and African Swine Fever recovery dynamics, is dampening upward price momentum. A key risk remains the potential for feed cost volatility and regulatory developments on animal welfare, which could tighten supply or increase production costs, influencing prices in the second half of 2026.
  • USDA July 2026 Pork Report Highlights
  • CME Lean Hog Futures Price Update - July 2026
  • Rabobank Pork Market Monthly, July 2026
  • New USDA Export Data Highlights Asian Pork Demand Trends
  • As of July 2026, lean hog supply is tightening due to slower-than-expected hog slaughter volumes driven by higher feed costs and lingering impacts from disease outbreaks earlier in the year. Meanwhile, demand remains firm with expanding export markets, particularly in Asia, supporting prices. Key risks include feed price volatility and potential shifts in trade policies, which could constrain production and disrupt export growth, creating supply-demand imbalances in the coming months.
  • USDA June Hogs and Pigs Report
  • USDA July Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
  • CME Group Lean Hog Futures Report – July 2026
  • Rabobank Animal Protein Quarterly Update July 2026
  • US Export Sales Highlight Demand Strength for Pork
  • As of mid-2026, the lean hog cost curve is reflecting inflationary pressures on feed costs and variable input expenses, pushing the breakeven price higher. Producers with integrated feed sources maintain cost advantages, while smaller operations face margin compression. Recent tightening in pork export demand, particularly from Asia, adds downside risk to pricing power. Uncertainties around disease outbreaks and evolving trade policies could further disrupt cost dynamics and supply responses in the coming quarters.
  • USDA July 2026 Hogs and Pigs Report
  • CME Lean Hog Futures Cost of Production Update, June 2026
  • Rabobank Pork Quarterly July 2026: Cost Pressures Mount
  • USDA ERS Feed Costs Influence on Hog Production - June 2026
  • Bloomberg: Lean Hog Prices Face Risks Amid Asian Demand Slowdown - July 1, 2026

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    JI1 ComdtySilver (Tokyo)JPY/g-13.16-15.17-13.16124.4932.05
    XAGJPY CurncySilver/Japanese Yen SpotJPY/t oz.-16.34-16.63-16.34120.1229.05
    XAGUSD CurncySilver SpotUSD/t oz.-16.16-18.08-16.16103.3723.04
    SI1 ComdtySilver (Comex)USD/t oz.-15.31-17.79-15.31101.8422.91
    XAGGBP CurncySilver/British Pound SpotGBP/t oz.-15.68-17.32-15.6892.7619.92

    Worst Commodities 1yr

    Tickernameunitsytd1month6months1yrRank
    JO1 ComdtyOrange Juice (ICE)USd/lb.-20.587.44-20.58-66.50-26.55
    CC1 ComdtyCocoa (ICE)USD/MT-12.3738.66-12.37-42.74-5.48
    SB1 ComdtySugar #11 (ICE)USd/lb.-1.203.35-1.20-29.81-9.22
    RR1 ComdtyRough Rice (CBOT)USD/cwt27.944.9027.94-12.986.62
    CP1 ComdtyCrude Oil (Tokyo)JPY/kl15.40-26.8915.40-0.98-4.16