Key Info

Fagron Web - www.fagron.be

Tel - 32-5-662-88-00

Next Reporting Date - 07.02.2020

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Fagron

Health Care Equipment & Servic

BELGIUM

DCF Model Assumptions

Risk Free Rate

2.00%

Country Equity Risk Premium

6.00%

Cost of Debt

5.18%

Cost of Debt

5.18%

Long Term Growth

2.00%

Beta Assumption

0.31 Current Market Cap mln$

1,269.63

Net Debt mln$

293.36 WACC Estimate

4.11%

Ordinary Current Price $

17.65

DCF Model

DCF	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019F	2020F	2021F	2022F	2023F	2024F	2025F	2026F	2027F	2028F	2029F
Revenue	474.59	466.90	489.77	557.11	559.58	586.62	609.80	636.04	661.17	688.08	716.07	745.21	775.53	807.09	839.93
EBITDA Costs	370.72	424.30	385.66	447.21	442.24	457.50	470.59	485.40	499.59	514.46	529.77	545.54	561.78	578.51	595.73
EBITDA	103.87	42.60	104.11	109.90	117.34	129.11	139.21	150.64	161.59	173.62	186.30	199.67	213.75	228.58	244.20
EBITDA Margin	21.89	9.12	21.26	19.73	20.97	22.01	22.83	23.68	24.44	25.23	26.02	26.79	27.56	28.32	29.07
Operating Costs	386.69	444.42	405.48	470.33	465.40	482.13	496.47	512.71	528.26	544.60	561.44	578.81	596.71	615.17	634.20
Operating Profit	87.90	22.48	84.29	86.78	94.18	104.49	113.33	123.33	132.91	143.48	154.63	166.40	178.82	191.92	205.73
Operating Margin	18.52	4.82	17.21	15.58	16.83	17.81	18.58	19.39	20.10	20.85	21.59	22.33	23.06	23.78	24.49
Pretax Costs	492.47	473.95	426.54	492.34	484.07	489.58	494.31	499.66	504.79	509.96	515.18	520.46	525.79	531.18	536.62
PTP	-17.88	-7.04	63.22	64.77	75.51	97.03	115.49	136.38	156.39	178.12	200.89	224.75	249.74	275.91	303.30
Pretax Margin	-3.77	-1.51	12.91	11.63	13.49	16.54	18.94	21.44	23.65	25.89	28.05	30.16	32.20	34.19	36.11
Net Income Costs	425.48	453.88	434.34	498.66	495.82	514.31	530.17	548.11	565.30	583.40	602.07	621.34	641.23	661.76	682.95
Net Income	49.12	13.03	55.42	58.46	63.76	72.30	79.63	87.93	95.87	104.68	114.00	123.87	134.30	145.33	156.98
Net Margin	10.35	2.79	11.32	10.49	11.39	12.33	13.06	13.82	14.50	15.21	15.92	16.62	17.32	18.01	18.69
Revenue Less Capex	499.07	483.26	501.10	575.65	577.07	604.03	627.14	653.30	678.36	705.12	732.94	761.85	791.90	823.14	855.61
Capex	-24.48	-16.36	-11.33	-18.54	-17.49	-17.41	-17.34	-17.26	-17.19	-17.05	-16.86	-16.64	-16.37	-16.05	-15.68
Capex to Revenues	-5.16	-3.50	-2.31	-3.33	-3.13	-2.97	-2.84	-2.71	-2.60	-2.48	-2.35	-2.23	-2.11	-1.99	-1.87
Revenue less FCF	454.32	451.16	441.75	511.56	509.31	528.62	545.18	563.91	581.86	600.77	620.30	640.46	661.28	682.77	704.96
FCF	20.27	15.75	48.02	45.55	50.26	57.99	64.62	72.13	79.31	87.30	95.77	104.75	114.25	124.32	134.96
FCF to Revenue	4.27	3.37	9.80	8.18	8.98	9.89	10.60	11.34	12.00	12.69	13.38	14.06	14.73	15.40	16.07

BELGIUM Comparables

ticker

company

country

Market Cap
2019

PE RATIO
2019

PE RATIO
2020

EV/EBITDA
2019

EV/EBITDA
2020

P/S
2019

DIVIDEND YIELD
2019

EBITDA Margin
2019

P/B
2019

ROE
2019

6 month return
2019

International Comparables

ticker	company	country	Market Cap 2019	PE RATIO 2019	PE RATIO 2020	EV/EBITDA 2019	EV/EBITDA 2020	P/S 2019	DIVIDEND YIELD 2019	EBITDA Margin 2019	P/B 2019	ROE 2019	6 month return 2019
UNH US	UnitedHealth Group Inc	UNITED STATES	232891.08	16.53	14.71	11.82	10.55	0.96	1.68	9.07	4.00	24.88	-8.15
ABT US	Abbott Laboratories	UNITED STATES	146976.79	25.63	22.99	19.69	17.35	4.60	1.48	26.05	3.65	18.01	15.23
MDT US	Medtronic PLC	IRELAND	133458.50	21.08	18.20	14.87	13.95	3.68	2.29	29.21	2.34	9.19	13.16
DHR US	Danaher Corp	UNITED STATES	97346.78	28.50	24.49	21.16	16.98	4.69	0.49	23.88	2.96	11.61	25.28
SYK US	Stryker Corp	UNITED STATES	76938.15	25.06	22.84	19.91	18.06	5.18	1.02	28.38	5.82	25.01	14.38
ANTM US	Anthem Inc	UNITED STATES	72554.88	14.66	12.36	9.70	7.53	0.71	0.94	6.80	2.29	16.52	-7.42
BDX US	Becton Dickinson and Co	UNITED STATES	63748.44	20.24	18.11	16.42	13.79	3.69	1.36	30.36	2.77	14.94	-1.54
CI US	Cigna Corp	UNITED STATES	60039.87	9.53	8.51	7.96	8.00	0.44	0.06	8.62	1.49	12.17	-14.48
BSX US	Boston Scientific Corp	UNITED STATES	57613.38	26.46	23.13	20.62	18.52	5.45	0.00	30.88	5.93	23.93	6.46
ISRG US	Intuitive Surgical Inc	UNITED STATES	56642.45	40.67	35.84	32.34	28.70	13.05	0.00	38.48	7.10	18.49	-3.51
EW US	Edwards Lifesciences Corp	UNITED STATES	43554.99	39.22	35.28	31.63	27.97	10.28	0.00	32.31	9.70	31.35	23.01
HCA US	HCA Healthcare Inc	UNITED STATES	42125.02	11.92	10.88	8.21	7.80	0.83	1.28	19.07	-	-92.56	-11.60
BAX US	Baxter International Inc	UNITED STATES	41819.63	24.23	21.70	16.51	14.32	3.70	1.02	23.90	3.75	21.70	15.81
HUM US	Humana Inc	UNITED STATES	38727.40	16.27	15.30	8.14	7.26	0.60	0.73	5.79	3.13	20.65	-5.29
7741 JP	Hoya Corp	JAPAN	28513.62	22.73	23.14	14.46	13.65	3.81	1.23	30.42	4.46	21.25	25.29
FRE GR	Fresenius SE & Co KGaA	GERMANY	27224.38	12.93	12.01	8.94	8.46	0.69	1.86	18.71	1.48	11.73	-5.06
MCK US	McKesson Corp	UNITED STATES	26748.23	10.84	10.07	15.50	8.98	0.14	1.29	0.86	2.75	0.38	11.46
COLOB DC	Coloplast A/S	DENMARK	25763.67	39.87	35.80	27.89	25.38	9.58	2.14	34.74	24.48	63.45	25.54
CERN US	Cerner Corp	UNITED STATES	22182.51	26.06	21.86	13.44	11.84	3.88	0.28	29.15	4.75	17.16	25.62
FME GR	Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co KGaA	GERMANY	20681.33	14.48	12.95	9.05	8.41	1.05	1.89	20.14	1.47	10.32	-8.11
ABC US	AmerisourceBergen Corp	UNITED STATES	18478.47	12.65	11.76	8.55	8.25	0.10	1.81	1.32	6.22	43.48	4.39
LH US	Laboratory Corp of America Holdings	UNITED STATES	15765.82	14.17	13.19	11.39	11.01	1.37	0.00	17.67	2.20	17.57	8.35
7733 JP	Olympus Corp	JAPAN	15694.84	201.34	24.69	19.96	11.03	1.76	0.62	10.88	3.73	1.84	9.03
CAH US	Cardinal Health Inc	UNITED STATES	13576.63	8.93	8.95	6.95	7.11	0.09	4.30	1.91	2.13	24.48	-14.34
DGX US	Quest Diagnostics Inc	UNITED STATES	13177.46	15.07	14.41	11.10	10.78	1.71	2.15	20.47	2.34	18.68	10.24
HOLX US	Hologic Inc	UNITED STATES	12870.79	19.77	18.23	14.46	13.49	3.85	0.00	32.06	5.29	26.01	10.82
IHH MK	IHH Healthcare Bhd	MALAYSIA	11891.26	46.94	38.12	20.02	17.93	3.59	0.55	22.41	2.06	4.44	-2.33
XRAY US	DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc	UNITED STATES	11543.21	21.55	19.13	14.58	13.38	2.89	0.69	22.23	2.03	9.10	20.53
1099 HK	Sinopharm Group Co Ltd	CHINA	10639.47	11.57	10.24	5.91	5.36	0.19	2.60	4.76	1.59	14.90	-18.69
VAR US	Varian Medical Systems Inc	UNITED STATES	10152.27	23.99	21.16	16.42	14.60	3.18	0.00	19.14	4.23	22.67	-14.41

EV, Debt, Cash

Fields	2018
EV	1562.99
Cash	88.84
Debt	377.77
Debt/Equity	-
Pref Equity	0.00
Shares Out	71.74
minorities	4.44

Last Price

Fields	2018
Last Price	17.65
Next DVD Ex Date	#N/A N/A
DVD Announcement Date	07.02.2019
Last Ex Date	16.05.2019

CashflowSummary

Fields	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Revenue	474.5918703	466.9035028	489.7669405	557.11153	594.425	664.83
Operating Profit	87.89873006	22.48301094	84.28511617	86.77956477	105.999	124.749
PTP	-17.88211018	-7.043857708	63.22485191	64.76695114	79.981	104.296
Net Income	49.11641797	13.02524445	55.42412641	58.45502286	62.374	81.554
EPS	1.454424782	0.24451063	0.768210476	0.814975769	0.887	1.158
DPS	0	0	0.112972129	0.141734916	0.148	0.183
EBITDA	103.8671992	42.60404948	104.1105951	109.900073	126.056	145.665
BPS	-2.143550203	2.202197134	3.039819844	3.285881143	4.061	4.941
Capex	-24.47773394	-16.35560738	-11.33336397	-18.53656481	-18.931	-20.524
FCF	20.26972154	15.74574478	48.01654392	45.55360211
EV TO T12M EBIT	9.46	48.44	14.19	17.43	17.43	17.43
EV/EBITDA	8.01	25.56	11.49	13.76	12.49	10.80
CUR RATIO	0.26	1.02	1.54	1.06	1.06	1.06

Ratios

Fields	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Market Cap	1269.63	1269.63	1269.63	1269.63	1269.63	1269.63
PE RATIO	-	-	17.56	23.90	18.72	15.04
EV/EBITDA	8.01	25.56	11.49	13.76	12.49	10.80
P/S	0.52	1.24	2.17	1.89	2.15	1.93
DIVIDEND YIELD	0.00	0.00	0.88	0.84	0.81	0.99
EBITDA Margin	21.89	9.12	21.26	19.73	21.12	0.20
P/B	-	4.65	4.51	4.98	4.39	3.52
ROE	-	-	28.18	21.94	24.30	26.03
6 month return	-9.82	-9.82	-9.82	-9.82	-9.82	-9.82