Glencore’s investment case has evolved from a cyclical recovery story into a structural exposure to commodity flow dislocation and inflation transmission. Since our September initiation, the shares have re-rated materially, driven by resilient marketing earnings and stable copper performance, partially offsetting weaker coal and nickel markets.
We update our valuation to reflect 2025 actuals and an improved outlook for trading, with our DCF implying a revised target price of £7.40 (previously £7.02). Our base case DCF implies £6.75 per share, with our £7.40 target price reflecting partial weighting of a geopolitical upside scenario. While commodity markets remain mixed, Glencore’s integrated model positions it to benefit from volatility and disruption, particularly in energy markets. We reiterate our Overweight recommendation.
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