Rusal reports good set of numbers for Q1 2018 but they are irrelevant to the current situation of the comp
Rusal 1Q 2018 of 2.7$bn reflects higher revenue – reflecting growth in aluminium price and small increase in aluminium output to 931mt. Revenue grew by 19.5% in 1Q 2018 vs the same period last year.
EBITDA margin was flat at 20.8% despite growing aluminium price. EBITDA increased to 572$mln in line with growing revenue.
Net debt increased to 7.8bn$ growing by 3%, but interest expense was smaller than last year at 123mn$
Operating cash flow was less at 116mn$ representing a drop of 46% vs. the same period last year.
Adjusted net profit (ex Norilsk) grew in line to 317mn$.
Sanctions make Rusal outlook uncertain. It would have been further helped by weaker ruble but it is largely irrelevant now.
It will be unable to dispose of any assets under sanctions regime. It looks as if its future depends solely on the Russian government support.
There is also a more cruel Yukos like option on the cards if the government does not decide not to help. This will allow the creditors to get some cash out of Rusal without violating sanctions regime.
So far the government statements implied that Rusal will receive support. So share price bounced 33% from its trough.

Though Rusal speculatively very attractive. There are far more attractive speculative opportunities in the sector. Singapore commodities traded The Nobel Group which lost 99% of its value in the last few years and with bonds in default may benefit from aluminium price surge which increases valuation of its Jamaican aluminium smelter.