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August 4, 2017

Best 15 Markets Yesterday

CountryChangePct
JAMAICA1.33
SERBIA1.26
KAZAKHSTAN1.20
HUNGARY1.19
ITALY1.18
AUSTRIA1.16
NIGERIA1.11
CZECH REPUBLIC1.02
LEBANON1.02
BELGIUM0.89
ROMANIA0.77
FRANCE0.69
RUSSIA0.69
BULGARIA0.67
LITHUANIA0.65

Worst 15 Markets Yesterday

CountryChangePct
ISRAEL-7.30
KOREA-2.25
BOTSWANA-1.76
INDONESIA-1.13
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO-1.02
MAURITIUS-0.93
BANGLADESH-0.93
UKRAINE-0.71
TAIWAN-0.61
SOUTH AFRICA-0.48
INDIA-0.48
EGYPT-0.47
SINGAPORE-0.46
SRI LANKA-0.38
ESTONIA-0.32

Best 10 Markets YTD

CountryChangePct
ZIMBABWE58.61
AUSTRIA43.78
JAMAICA41.84
POLAND41.33
BULGARIA40.15
GHANA40.08
TURKEY35.79
KAZAKHSTAN34.82
GREECE34.23
ROMANIA33.77

Worst 10 Markets YTD

CountryChangePct
OMAN-18.41
RUSSIA-12.36
PAKISTAN-10.67
LEBANON-9.21
QATAR-7.20
BOTSWANA-6.58
JORDAN-0.28
SAUDI ARABIA DOMESTIC0.05
ISRAEL0.38
BANGLADESH3.56

Best 10 Markets Last 12 months

CountryChangePct
ZIMBABWE116.01
BULGARIA82.29
AUSTRIA72.67
JAMAICA59.42
GREECE55.25
KAZAKHSTAN49.46
HUNGARY48.79
SPAIN41.68
POLAND41.07
ITALY40.33

Worst 10 Markets Last 12 months

CountryChangePct
BOTSWANA-21.16
OMAN-18.72
EGYPT-17.27
ISRAEL-16.33
PHILIPPINES-7.94
QATAR-6.81
LEBANON-2.18
JORDAN-1.49
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO0.34
SLOVENIA0.82

Country USD Yields and Week Changes

CountryAverage YieldYield Average WkChange % pts
Venezuela31.264.15
Pakistan5.160.30
El Salvador8.560.23
Bolivia4.850.10
Lebanon6.500.07
Argentina6.590.05
Gabon6.920.03
Poland2.690.02
Vietnam3.980.02
Lithuania2.390.01
Kenya6.490.00
Malaysia3.27-0.01
India3.63-0.01
Colombia4.00-0.01
Costa Rica6.05-0.03
Philippines3.25-0.03
Slovak Republic2.33-0.03
Jordan5.79-0.03
Peru3.71-0.06
China2.93-0.06
Russian Federation3.97-0.07
Jamaica5.65-0.07
Tunisia6.34-0.08
Uruguay3.97-0.09
Paraguay5.23-0.10
Romania3.40-0.10
South Africa4.92-0.11
Chile2.77-0.12
Indonesia3.88-0.12
Hungary3.10-0.12
Turkey4.82-0.13
Kazakhstan4.56-0.16
Panama3.34-0.16
Angola8.45-0.17
Senegal5.94-0.17
United States1.05-0.17
Mexico4.28-0.18
Oman4.63-0.19
Brazil4.88-0.22
Nigeria6.72-0.22
Trinidad and Tobago4.60-0.23
Croatia (Hrvatska)3.10-0.25
Dominican Republic4.98-0.26
Ethiopia6.58-0.26
Ghana7.37-0.27
Egypt5.95-0.27
Serbia2.99-0.28
Cote D'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)6.10-0.29
Morocco3.01-0.30
Zambia7.54-0.30
Sri Lanka5.12-0.30
Azerbaijan4.93-0.37
Ukraine7.26-0.37
Ecuador8.81-0.38
Mongolia6.00-0.51
Iraq7.44-0.65

Chart: Russian Ruble/USD Sanctions/Oil Price/Carry Trade Scenarios…

On Our Probabilities Ruble could go to 65/USD eventually

Source: ML

Download file in Power Point


Comment

Weekly performance is between 2017-08-03 and 2017-07-28

Best global markets week to date EUROPE +1.32%, EM LATIN AMERICA +1.23%, EM (EMERGING MARKETS) +0.10%,

While worst global markets week to date FM (FRONTIER MARKETS) -1.76%, USA -0.02%, EFM ASIA 0.06%,
  • Futures show US equities heading for yet another record
  • Dow posts 7th straight record close, rising despite report of Russia ...
  • Global investors find a new love as consumer conference soars in ...
  • Top funds for emerging market exposure
  • China stocks inch up, bolstered by strong resources; Hong Kong flat
  • Chinese stocks in Hong Kong push past 11000 on insurer gains ...
  • European equities lean on earnings to revive rally
  • European Assets lags sector despite Italian equities boost
  • Oil prices dip on high OPEC supplies, rising US production
  • Venezuela's ''Election'' Creates Opportunity For Oil Investors
  • Steel Price Forecast, July 2017: China Reduces Steel Capacity
  • If Trump wins on steel, US manufacturers lose
  • Investors conflicted as gold prices rise, but Fed and ECB policy ...
  • Today Gold Price: Track today gold rate latest trends and news

    Best since the start of the week among various stock markets were PORTUGAL +4.32%, HUNGARY +3.64%, ITALY +2.78%, BRAZIL +2.56%, BULGARIA +2.45%, GREECE +2.35%, CZECH REPUBLIC +2.24%, HONG KONG +1.96%, ROMANIA +1.92%, JAMAICA +1.73%,

    While worst since the start of the week among various stock markets were NIGERIA -13.71%, ISRAEL -8.69%, BOTSWANA -2.84%, SOUTH AFRICA -2.46%, PHILIPPINES -2.22%, MAURITIUS -2.09%, KENYA -1.99%, EGYPT -1.74%, BANGLADESH -1.68%, KUWAIT -1.66%,

    News

    Chose Your Country

    Best 10 Market Since the begining of the week


    PORTUGAL 4.32%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • Portugal President Marcelo Rebelol honours The Aga Khan
  • Prime Minister addresses State of Nation
  • How Portugal came back from the brink — and why austerity could ...
  • UPDATE 1-DBRS confirms Portugal investment-grade rating ...
  • Migrants Won't Solve Europe's Demographic Problem
  • Textile, clothing exports up 5%, beating 2020 sector target of €5bn
  • Portugal budget deficit narrows in first quarter
  • Portugal debt issuance unaltered by CGD, still has IMF money

    HUNGARY 3.64%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • Hungary's leader: EU and Soros seek to "Muslimize" Europe
  • Hungarian prime minister says country 'made a mistake ...
  • Hungary sells renminbi debt in China
  • Hungary Regains Investment Grade at S&P on Budget Discipline
  • Hungary: Population Movement - Emergency Appeal n° MDRHU004 ...
  • New express facilities to handle record growth at Budapest Airport
  • UPDATE 1-Hungary's 2017 budget to target 2.4 pct/GDP deficit -PM ...
  • Hungary sells 1 bln renminbi of Panda bonds

    ITALY 2.78%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • Macron's Italy UPRISING: French leader facing major Rome revolt ...
  • Italy impounds NGO rescue ship and sends navy patrol boat to Libya
  • More work need to be done despite IMF's forecast adjustment on Italy
  • Ryanair gives away €8 flights to mark Italy investment boost
  • This is what Italy's population will look like in 50 years
  • Exports of plastics and rubber equipment grow in double digits / Pre ...
  • EU Commission sees Italy's budget deficit on the rise
  • The sheer scale of Italy's debt threatens global GDP
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-08-03Markit/ADACI Services PMI JUL53.3
    2017-08-04Retail Sales YoY JUN1.20%
    2017-08-04Retail Sales MoM JUN0.30%

    BRAZIL 2.56%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • Brazil's President Temer survives corruption vote
  • Matildas rout Brazil for Tournament of Nations triumph
  • Brazil can prove the skeptics wrong again
  • JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust Barely Underperforms Benchmark
  • The curious case of 217 million missing women in the Indian workforce
  • Brazil exports to Arab region up 15.4pc in H1
  • Brazil Budget Gap Widens More Than Forecast as Revenue Falls
  • Brazil Debt, Consumption On Mend, BNP Says
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-08-03Markit Services PMI JUL49.4
    2017-08-03Markit Composite PMI JUL50.6
    2017-08-04New Car Registrations MoM JUL
    2017-08-04Car Production MoM JUL

    BULGARIA 2.45%

  • macro bonds quick news
  • Vladimir Putin Wishesh Bulgarian President Rumen Radev Health ...
  • Will the Bulgarian-Macedonian Treaty Work?
  • In Bulgaria, Rundown Buildings Become Places to Play
  • Bulgarian Tourism Sector Forecasts 8.5% Growth in 2015
  • Bulgaria's population dropped by more than 51 000 in a year ...
  • Bulgaria's Exports to EU Grew 6% in Jan-Sept
  • Bulgaria sees Jan-July fiscal surplus rising to 2.0 pct of GDP
  • Bulgaria's Debt Grows by EUR 2.1238 in 2016

    GREECE 2.35%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • 'Nobody Wants Costa Rica To Be Another Greece', President Solis
  • How Greece could escape debtors' prison – if Europe opens the door
  • S&P's “Improved” Outlook On Greece: GDP Growth, Mountains Of ...
  • Fosun Spearheads China's Dominant Investments in Greece
  • Foreigners' bank deposits have dropped by 40 bln in eight years
  • Could reforms have prevented Greece's economic collapse?
  • Greek Jan-June govt budget surplus beats target on lower spending
  • Is Greece's Debt Story Looking Up?

    CZECH REPUBLIC 2.24%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • Business booming in Czech fake news industry
  • HN: Prague lacks allies to block EU's permanent migrant quotas
  • Why does the Czech Republic have the lowest unemployment in the ...
  • Czech politicians take aim at banks
  • Czech Republic country profile
  • Czech media focuses on President Zeman's visit to Vietnam
  • UPDATE 1-Czech PM's party puts bank tax back on election menu
  • Czech Parliament Approves Armenian Genocide Resolution

    HONG KONG 1.96%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • Hong Kong: Xi calls for unity in face of challenges
  • Singapore, Hong Kong reaffirm 'close relations' during Carrie Lam's ...
  • Is Hong Kong ready for e-sports and its economic growth?
  • DAILY BRIEFING: Connection Capital sells education software Impero
  • Hong Kong can show China how to move 1 billion people by rail ...
  • China's debt levels worrying, says economist
  • Hong Kong budget 2017 as it happened: Paul Chan announces HK ...
  • China & Hong Kong Debt Downgrades: Why Markets Just Shrugged
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-08-03Nikkei PMI JUL50.1

    ROMANIA 1.92%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • Răducan Ready for New Challenges as President of Romanian ...
  • 'You snakes' — Russia's deputy PM to Romanian authorities
  • Fitch: Romania's economic growth will reach 5.1% this year
  • Fitch Affirms Romania at 'BBB -' with stable outlooks
  • INS: Romania's population, negative natural growth rate of 9782 ...
  • Romania's exports and imports accelerate in March to new record ...
  • Romania's budget deficit reaches 0.77% of GDP in first half
  • Romania sells planned 1.0 bln lei of one-year bills

    JAMAICA 1.73%

  • macro bonds quick news
  • Adequate Security at Denbigh
  • Jamaica's oldest, youngest prime ministers to fete 55th here
  • Government Hails REDI Initiative's Success
  • JAMPRO and BOJ Governor promotes Jamaica in London
  • Arnold Bertram | Jamaica's black and coloured slave owners
  • Jamaica rum exports projected to grow
  • Property tax: what's the problem?
  • Jamaica must 'grow its way' out of debt problems

    Worst 10 Market Since Begining of the Week


    NIGERIA -13.71%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • Buhari has been gone for months. The last Nigerian president ...
  • Pakistan's prime minister forced to resign over Panama Papers
  • Nigeria's economy to grow 0.8 pct this year, risk remains - IMF
  • Elumelu: All Arms of Govt Must Collaborate to Make Nigeria ...
  • Nigeria's population growth rate unsustainable – FG
  • Experts warn tanker earnings face a long road to recovery
  • Nigeria's budget deficit and borrowing strategies
  • DMO: Nigeria's Debt Burden Indicators May Deteriorate Without ...
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-08-03Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI JUL53.2

    ISRAEL -8.69%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • The Temple Mount crisis ended Trump's Palestinian honeymoon ...
  • Israeli police: Prime Minister Netanyahu suspected of bribery, fraud ...
  • China looks toward the Middle East
  • Term Sheet — Wednesday, July 19
  • Israel Faces End of Decade-Long Housing Boom
  • Israel Economic Overview: CPI Drops, Housing Prices Rise ...
  • Israel cabinet approves two-year draft budget aimed at boosting ...
  • Israel debt slips for seventh straight year to 62.2 percent of GDP

    BOTSWANA -2.84%

  • macro bonds quick news
  • Botswana Prepares to Host Dalai Lama Over China's Objections
  • Botswana Prepares to Host Dalai Lama Over China's Objections
  • Botswana's Economic Miracle
  • 2017 Private Business Awards
  • South Africa's population on the rise
  • BDC scales down property portfolio
  • Budget 2017/18: Govt's behemoth job creation task
  • Shrenuj Nears Debt Deal to Ease Liquidity Crisis

    SOUTH AFRICA -2.46%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • South Africa president backs his former wife in ANC race
  • New role for MP Andrew
  • Why South Africa's economic outlook is looking bleak
  • South Africa: SA Still a Choice Investment Destination
  • South Africa's population has increased by almost one million
  • South Africa: SA Still a Choice Investment Destination
  • South Africa budget targets top earners
  • Nedbank CEO Sees State-Owned Firms as Biggest South African Risk
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-08-03Standard Bank PMI JUL50.6

    PHILIPPINES -2.22%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • North Korea's Kim Jong-un is a 'fool', says Philippines President ...
  • Japan's cooperation in railway projects in Mega Manila
  • Standard Chartered cuts Philippine GDP forecast
  • Japan credit rater maintains Philippines' investment grade
  • 105M
  • Philippines' exports, imports post double-digit growth in May
  • Philippines' budget secretary says not worried about peso ...
  • The myths and realities of Duterte's infrastructure initiative
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-08-04PPI YoY JUN-2.50%
    2017-08-04Inflation Rate MoM JUL0.10%
    2017-08-04Inflation Rate YoY JUL2.90%
    2017-08-04Core Inflation Rate YoY JUL2.50%

    MAURITIUS -2.09%

  • macro bonds quick news
  • French Federation President Siutat keen to help Mauritius in training ...
  • L&T wins Rs3,375-crore contract from Mauritius govt to build Metro ...
  • L&T bags Rs 3375 crore metro rail project in Mauritius
  • DeVere Group to launch Mauritius investment bank
  • The island where Africa's rich get richer
  • Mauritius is a haven
  • Mauritius: Budget 2017-2018 Highlights - Upgrading Infrastructure to ...
  • India, Cyprus agree to new tax treaty: Here's how it clears ...

    KENYA -1.99%

  • macro bonds quick news
  • Kenyan Election Official Found Dead Ahead Of Presidential Vote
  • Kenya judges hit back at election rivals' 'vile affront' to the law
  • Mixed bag of economic growth as Kenya goes to the polls
  • Is Kenya overbanking on new Special Economic Zones to drive ...
  • Kenyan elections 2017: What you need to know
  • Kenya's clout wanes as China and India fight for control of EAC trade
  • Kenya: Gaming Tax Defeat Sets Back Kenya Budget Plan
  • Kenya's new $3.2 billion railway frustrates customers ahead of polls

    EGYPT -1.74%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • Sisi now controls Egypt's top courts
  • Egypt Reserves Reach Record High of Over $36 Billion
  • Egypt's economic growth to pick up slightly this fiscal year: Poll
  • African Markets - Factors to watch on July 17
  • CAPMAS: Egypt population reaches 93.33 million
  • Egypt agricultural exports up 12.1 pct in first half 2017
  • Egypt's Budget, Energy Price Rises Show Fiscal Commitment
  • Foreign Holdings of Egypt Debt Reach $7.5 Billion, Official Says
    Econ events
    momenteventForecastConsensus
    2017-08-03Emirates NBD PMI JUL47.4

    BANGLADESH -1.68%

  • macro bonds quick news
  • President returns after successful visit to Bangladesh
  • World now treats Bangladesh with honour: PM
  • Doing Business index: Improving Bangladesh's ranking
  • China-Bangladesh Investment Forum to be held in August
  • Bangladesh's population is its asset, not burden: Hasina
  • UPDATE 1-Bangladesh exports up 1.7 pct in 2016/17, slowest ...
  • Budget deficit one-fourth of total expense
  • BD may slip into 'debt crisis' shortly

    KUWAIT -1.66%

  • macro strategy bonds quick news
  • Oil Revenue Surge Seen Cutting Kuwait Deficit: Investors' Guide
  • Kuwait denies its waters used for Iran supplies to Houthis
  • Pakistan elects Abbasi as new PM
  • ME growth to dive as Saudi economy slows: IMF
  • Why sovereign funds need to consider tech investments
  • Kuwait healthcare sector to grow 7.5% up to 2020
  • Beximco in milestone achievement with Kuwait exports
  • Oil Revenue Surge Seen Cutting Kuwait Deficit: Investors' Guide
  • Kuwait's debut sovereign bond sale draws more than $20bn in ...

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