Russia
By: Research Team

Description
This report highlights financial, economic and political Russia news and Strategy. For many calculation
MidLincoln Russia Index is used which is the standard symmetrical index of investible Russia stocks
Comment
Russia RTSI$:IND Index gained 0.14% last month. To finish the month at 992.23
MSCI Russia Index gained 0.45% last month. Its overall up 27.07% since the beginning of the year.
At the same time MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 0.18% last month and is up 13.97% YTD.
RUB last month lost -0.52% against US dollar. To finish the month at 63.2561per USD.
Sovereign eurobonds are trading with average yield of 4.20% and widened by0.35% last month.
Corporate eurobonds are trading with average yield of 4.30% and widened by0.27% last month.
Local currency bonds are trading with average yield of 8.75% and widened by0.19% last month.
While Brent oil price last month lost -1.16%. To finish the month at 49.48 $/bbl. lost -1.16%. To finish the month at 49.48 $/bbl.
Best last week among stocks was United Co RUSAL PLC (486:HK) +10.26%, MegaFon PJSC (MFON:LI) +7.14%, TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS:LI) +7.06%,
While worst last week among stocks was Surgutneftegas OJSC (SNGSP:RM) -6.42%, Sistema PJSC FC (SSA:LI) -5.66%, Sberbank of Russia PJSC (SBER:RM) -5.59%,
Best last month among stocks was Federal Grid Co Unified Energy System PJSC (FEES:RM) +253.58%, Inter RAO UES PJSC (IRAO:RM) +222.46%, TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS:LI) +209.10%,
While worst last month among stocks was Surgutneftegas OJSC (SNGS:RM) -11.23%, Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS PJSC (MOEX:RM) -10.01%, Yandex NV (YNDX:US) -7.27%,
Best YTD among stocks was Federal Grid Co Unified Energy System PJSC (FEES:RM) +253.58%, Inter RAO UES PJSC (IRAO:RM) +222.46%, TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS:LI) +209.10%,
While worst YTD among stocks was Mail.Ru Group Ltd (MAIL:LI) -26.74%, Surgutneftegas OJSC (SNGSP:RM) -11.37%, MegaFon PJSC (MFON:LI) -10.66%,
In terms of sector performance last month
the best sectors included Industrials +13.86%, Materials +7.13%, Energy +4.09%,
While worst sector performance last month showed Information Technology -6.54%, Consumer Staples -0.93%, Real Estate 1.23%,
YTD the best sectors remain Utilities +175.18%, Industrials +173.23%, Financials +82.71%,
While the worst sectors are Information Technology -1.28%, Telecommunication Services 16.12%, Consumer Staples 21.91%,
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Some Political news headlines for Russia include:
Warming Relations in Person, Putin and Erdogan Revive Pipeline ...Politics|Investigating Donald Trump, FBI Sees No Clear Link to RussiaNo Hockey or J.Lo, but Vladimir Putin Still Gets 450 Roses for His ...Putin just made the sports minister who presided over Russia's ...Russian PM Medvedev to Visit Jerusalem, Ramallah for TalksChina will need to be more transparent to achieve its development ...Russia says innovation is the key to high growthVice Premier Zhang Gaoli attends talks on energy cooperationRussia to Probe Possible Meldonium “Provocations” against Its ...Η Ρωσία "κλείνει την κάνουλα" πτήσεων και τουριστών προς Τουρκία175 states sign landmark Paris deal on climate changeselect * from ml_tradeconevents where country='Russia' and moment='2016-11-01'While some economic events and news headlines include:
2016-10-03--Russia Markit Manufacturing PMI
Russia manufacturing PMI hits 4-year high in OctoberA depressing USA election, stronger commodity prices2016-10-03--Russia GDP YoY
Russian economic contraction to be less severe this yearRussia's GDP fell 3.7% YOY in 2015 — statistics2016-10-04--Russia MNI Business Sentiment Indicator
MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Indicator: Russia Consumer ...E-Mini S&P 500: Election draws murky picture!2016-10-04--Russia Inflation Rate YoY
United Company RUSAL Plc: Third Quarter 2016 Trading UpdateRussian economic contraction to be less severe this year2016-10-04--Russia Inflation Rate MoM
Wonkbook: What went wrong with the police in Ferguson and how to ...United Company RUSAL Plc: Third Quarter 2016 Trading Update2016-10-05--Russia Markit Services PMI
USD/RUB upside run out of legs near 63.60Russia services PMI expands for 8th month in row2016-10-07--Russia Consumer Confidence
Central Bank of Russia Sees Signs of Recovery in Consumer ActivityRussian recovery likely to be drawn out and weak, says Fitch2016-10-12--Russia Balance of Trade AUG
Sergey Aleksashenko: “I am almost certain there will be a future ...Exports to Russia show first rise in nearly three years2016-10-11--Russia MNI Consumer Sentiment Indicator SEP
Consumer sentiment in Russia rises steadily but slowly – Deutsche ...Russia consumer sentiment barometer of MNI Indicators down to ...2016-10-11--Russia MNI Business Sentiment Indicator SEP
E-Mini S&P 500: Election draws murky picture!E-Mini S&P 500: GDP on tap tomorrow!2016-10-10--Russia Vehicle Sales YoY SEP
BRIEF-Sollers Sept. sales of new cars and LCV in Russia down 2.1 ...United Company RUSAL Plc: Third Quarter 2016 Trading Update2016-10-10--Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves SEP
S. Korea's FX reserves up in SeptemberRussia's foreign minister: US can't solve world crises alone2016-10-17--Russia Industrial Production YoY SEP
Russia: While The Industry And The Citizens' Income Are Falling ...United Company RUSAL Plc: Third Quarter 2016 Trading Update2016-10-18--Russia MNI Business Sentiment Indicator SEP
E-Mini S&P 500: Election draws murky picture!E-Mini S&P 500: GDP on tap tomorrow!2016-10-18--Russia MNI Consumer Sentiment SEP
Consumer sentiment in Russia rises steadily but slowly – Deutsche ...Russia consumer sentiment barometer of MNI Indicators down to ...2016-10-18--Russia PPI MoM SEP
Gold Fundamental Forecast – September 15, 2016AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 15, 20162016-10-18--Russia PPI YoY SEP
Forex. USDCNY. Dollar Loses Value Against Renminbi Amid ...A New Record! Russian Crude Oil Production at 10.91 Million Bpd in ...2016-10-19--Russia Retail Sales YoY SEP
United Company RUSAL Plc: Third Quarter 2016 Trading UpdateX5 RETAIL GRP NET RETAIL SALES UP 30.2% IN Q3 20162016-10-19--Russia Unemployment Rate SEP
Russian retail sales, wages exceed expectations in SeptemberUnemployment rates rose in 3 of 8 US swing states last month2016-10-19--Russia Real Wage Growth YoY SEP
Russia: While The Industry And The Citizens' Income Are Falling ...Market briefing: US markets ended lower yesterday, as investors ...2016-10-25--Russia Business Confidence OCT
Emerging Europe to see slight growth pickup on Russia -IMFChina teams with Russia in bid to break Airbus-Boeing duopoly2016-10-31--Russia GDP YoY SEP
Mark Mobius: Emerging Markets Q3 Recap: Sentiment Remains ...Telkom's Revenue data, the Internet and IT Services Rises Sharply2016-10-31--Russia M2 Money Supply YoY SEP
Fiat money and goldWednesday Trading - China's 'Perfect' GDP Data Is A Joke2016-11-01--Russia Markit Manufacturing PMI OCT
Russia manufacturing PMI hits 4-year high in OctoberA depressing USA election, stronger commodity prices2016-11-03--Russia Markit Services PMI OCT
USD/RUB upside run out of legs near 63.60Russia services PMI expands for 8th month in row2016-11-03--Russia Inflation Rate YoY OCT
United Company RUSAL Plc: Third Quarter 2016 Trading UpdateRussian economic contraction to be less severe this year2016-11-03--Russia Inflation Rate MoM OCT
Wonkbook: What went wrong with the police in Ferguson and how to ...United Company RUSAL Plc: Third Quarter 2016 Trading UpdatePutin heralds bounceback in Russia's economyRussian PM expects modest economic growth in early 2017World Bank Slashes Russian Growth Forecasts -- UpdateWorld Bank Slashes Russian Growth ForecastsWhy Finland doesn't fear the growling Russian bear next doorVladimir Putin: America is a Threat to Russia and the World. “True ...Where did the German 'strongman' go?Viet Nam Surimi Exports to Russia Increase SharplyWeak Oil Wipes Out Third Of Russia's Export Revenue, Central ...Sanctions, Oil Prices May Harm Russian Economy, Ministers WarnUPDATE 3-Russia's Sberbank sees margin squeeze worsening in ...Companies Reported last month include:
| Ticker | Reported |
| CHMF:RM | 10/25/2016 |
| FIVE:LI | 10/26/2016 |
| MGNT:LI | 10/21/2016 |
| MGNT:RM | 10/21/2016 |
| NVTK:LI | 10/26/2016 |
Companies that will report next month include:
| Ticker | Reporting |
| 486:HK | 11/10/2016 |
| AFKS:RM | 11/24/2016 |
| AFLT:RM | 11/30/2016 |
| IRAO:RM | 11/29/2016 |
| LKOH:RM | 11/30/2016 |
| LSRG:LI | 11/8/2016 |
| MBT:US | 11/17/2016 |
| MFON:LI | 11/9/2016 |
| MFON:RM | 11/9/2016 |
| MOEX:RM | 11/9/2016 |
| ROSN:RM | 11/15/2016 |
| RTKM:RM | 11/10/2016 |
| SBER:RM | 11/15/2016 |
| SBERP:RM | 11/15/2016 |
| SIBN:RM | 11/23/2016 |
| SSA:LI | 11/24/2016 |
| TATN:RM | 11/25/2016 |
| TCS:LI | 11/30/2016 |
| TMKS:LI | 11/24/2016 |
| TRMK:RM | 11/24/2016 |
| TRNFP:RM | 11/17/2016 |
| VTBR:RM | 11/14/2016 |
Ex Div Stocks Last Month:
| Ticker | ExDv |
| AFKS:RM | 10/6/2016 |
| CHMF:RM | 12/12/2016 |
| LKOH:RM | 12/22/2016 |
| MBT:US | 10/12/2016 |
| MFON:RM | 12/19/2016 |
| MGNT:RM | 12/22/2016 |
| NVTK:LI | 10/10/2016 |
| SSA:LI | 10/6/2016 |
| TMKS:LI | 10/6/2016 |
| TRMK:RM | 10/7/2016 |
Companies that will go ex-Div next month include:
| Ticker | Reporting |
| SIBN:RM | 11/17/2016 |
Bond Picks
| bondpicks |
Souvereign Eurobonds
Corporate Eurobonds
Local Currency Bonds
|
Country Composition
| Country | Weight % |
| RUSSIA | 94.74 |
| CYPRUS | 2.63 |
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/Sector Composition
| Country | Weight % |
| RUSSIA | 94.74 |
| CYPRUS | 2.63 |
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Key Basket Multiples
| Stocks | Total MCap US mn | Payout Ratio | Div Yield | PE | NetMargin | 1yr Return |
| 37 | 461695.1 | 34.8 | 4.6 | 11.42 | 15.92 | 0.3 |
| value | MCap US mn | DividendYield | PE | PS | NetMarginPct | PayoutRatio | 52wkchange | Score |
| TCS Group Holding PLC | 1680.28 | 3.69 | 11.76 | 2.76 | 23.47 | 43.39 | 2.18 | 54.85 |
| Aeroflot PJSC | 2312.98 | 6.26 | 5.37 | 0.30 | 5.59 | 33.62 | 1.73 | 33.13 |
| Inter RAO UES PJSC | 5645.93 | 5.27 | 5.14 | 0.42 | 8.17 | 27.09 | 1.84 | 29.53 |
| Federal Grid Co Unified Energy System PJSC | 3455.59 | 1.75 | 4.18 | 1.07 | 25.60 | 7.32 | 2.01 | 28.31 |
| Evraz PLC | 3627.48 | 0.00 | 11.94 | 0.47 | 3.94 | 0.00 | 0.95 | -9.48 |
| Sberbank of Russia PJSC | 1754.94 | 4.06 | 4.79 | 0.06 | 1.25 | 19.45 | 0.66 | 14.14 |
| Sberbank of Russia PJSC | 50122.39 | 2.91 | 6.91 | 1.82 | 26.34 | 20.11 | 0.65 | 37.76 |
| LUKOIL PJSC | 41984.40 | 5.48 | 7.45 | 0.53 | 7.11 | 40.83 | 0.45 | 38.51 |
| X5 Retail Group NV | 8038.56 | 0.00 | 17.98 | 0.50 | 2.78 | 0.00 | 0.43 | -17.20 |
| LSR Group PJSC | 1501.67 | 6.88 | 10.33 | 1.01 | 9.78 | 71.07 | 0.43 | 68.52 |
| Rosneft PJSC | 58850.70 | 2.84 | 11.95 | 0.79 | 6.61 | 33.94 | 0.42 | 26.59 |
| Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS PJSC | 4134.22 | 6.23 | 10.36 | 5.96 | 57.53 | 64.54 | 0.37 | 109.65 |
| RusHydro PJSC | 4936.23 | 5.70 | 6.56 | 0.83 | 12.65 | 37.39 | 0.33 | 41.39 |
| TMK PJSC | 1112.44 | 0.93 | 39.89 | 0.27 | 0.68 | 37.10 | 0.32 | -4.22 |
| Severstal PJSC | 11594.24 | 6.71 | 8.85 | 1.97 | 22.26 | 59.38 | 0.30 | 70.66 |
| Gazprom Neft PJSC | 13916.64 | 7.59 | 3.51 | 0.56 | 15.95 | 26.64 | 0.28 | 36.94 |
| Yandex NV | 6304.03 | 0.00 | 29.05 | 5.42 | 18.66 | 0.00 | 0.22 | -12.60 |
| Mobile TeleSystems PJSC | 7663.79 | 10.47 | 9.44 | 1.09 | 11.55 | 98.84 | 0.21 | 98.72 |
| Novatek OJSC | 32488.47 | 2.40 | 10.93 | 3.92 | 35.86 | 26.23 | 0.19 | 48.93 |
| Sistema PJSC FC | 3032.15 | 20.37 | 10.13 | 0.26 | 2.57 | 206.35 | 0.19 | 196.55 |
| TMK PJSC | 1095.12 | 0.90 | 39.63 | 0.27 | 0.68 | 35.67 | 0.17 | -5.54 |
| Sistema PJSC FC | 3623.58 | 17.16 | 11.98 | 0.32 | 2.67 | 205.58 | 0.13 | 193.97 |
| Tatneft PJSC | 12812.75 | 3.24 | 7.77 | 1.43 | 18.40 | 25.17 | 0.13 | 33.51 |
| Gazprom PJSC | 53066.43 | 6.25 | 3.62 | 0.59 | 16.30 | 22.63 | 0.11 | 32.98 |
| Uralkali PJSC | 7770.98 | 0.23 | 8.25 | 3.08 | 37.33 | 1.90 | 0.09 | 28.64 |
| MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC | 23494.15 | 8.56 | 10.53 | 2.88 | 27.35 | 90.14 | 0.06 | 104.59 |
| Transneft PJSC | 3802.67 | 0.86 | 5.97 | 0.30 | 5.03 | 5.13 | 0.05 | 1.81 |
| United Co RUSAL PLC | 5485.20 | 2.22 | 7.85 | 0.70 | 8.92 | 17.43 | -0.01 | 16.05 |
| Magnit PJSC | 15824.26 | 2.57 | 16.73 | 0.93 | 5.56 | 43.00 | -0.02 | 29.38 |
| VTB Bank PJSC | 14106.42 | 1.45 | 68.73 | 1.70 | 2.47 | 99.66 | -0.03 | 30.94 |
| Rostelecom PJSC | 3274.33 | 7.06 | 14.98 | 0.69 | 4.61 | 105.76 | -0.08 | 92.88 |
| Magnit PJSC | 18628.59 | 2.18 | 19.70 | 1.10 | 5.58 | 42.95 | -0.12 | 26.28 |
| MegaFon PJSC | 5958.20 | 10.64 | 9.73 | 1.19 | 12.23 | 103.53 | -0.14 | 103.46 |
| Mail.Ru Group Ltd | 3624.75 | 0.00 | 20.63 | 5.70 | 27.63 | 0.00 | -0.16 | 4.41 |
| Surgutneftegas OJSC | 15535.75 | 1.76 | 4.47 | 0.97 | 21.70 | 7.87 | -0.21 | 22.46 |
| Surgutneftegas OJSC | 3458.36 | 8.71 | 12.90 | 0.21 | 1.63 | 112.36 | -0.22 | 98.44 |
| MegaFon PJSC | 5976.40 | 10.63 | 9.74 | 1.20 | 12.32 | 103.54 | -0.14 | 103.55 |
Index Sector Valuations vs GEM Average
| Sector | Sector MCap US mn | Sector MCap Share in Total | Gem Sector Share In Total GEM | GEM Sector MCAP USmn | Payout Ratio | GEM Payout Ratio | Div Yield | GEM Div Yield | PE | PEGEM | PE Discount vs GEM | NetMargin | NetMarginGEM | Margin Diff. vs GEM | 1yr Return | GEM 1yr Return |
| Consumer Staples | 42491.4 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 584775.3 | 34.8 | 38.0 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 18.3 | 28.2 | -35.1 | 5.0 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 12.3 |
| Energy | 238123.7 | 51.6 | 12.6 | 973390.4 | 28.5 | 40.8 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 8.1 | 12.4 | -34.7 | 14.9 | 9.7 | -5.2 | 0.2 | -21.0 |
| Financials | 71798.3 | 15.6 | 32.8 | 2543065.7 | 38.8 | 26.0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 19.3 | 8.8 | 119.3 | 22.8 | 20.4 | -2.4 | 0.5 | 3.2 |
| Industrials | 2313.0 | 0.5 | 5.8 | 453138.2 | 33.6 | 23.4 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 18.6 | -71.0 | 5.6 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 22.9 |
| Materials | 51972.1 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 590209.4 | 56.1 | 27.5 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 9.6 | 18.1 | -47.0 | 24.1 | 9.8 | -14.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Utilities | 14037.8 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 288099.0 | 25.8 | 32.2 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 12.4 | -56.5 | 14.0 | 13.4 | -0.6 | 1.4 | -5.6 |
Top 5 Russia Long Picks
| baskettable | value | stock | Country | Industry | MCapUSDmn | DividendYield | PE | PS | NetMarginPct | PayoutRatio | 52wkchange | Score |
| ml_basketpriceRussia | Sistema PJSC FC | AFKS:RM | RUSSIA | Wireless Telecommunication Ser | 3032.15 | 20.37 | 10.13 | 0.26 | 2.57 | 206.35 | 0.19 | 196.55 |
| ml_basketpriceRussia | Sistema PJSC FC | SSA:LI | RUSSIA | Wireless Telecommunication Ser | 3623.58 | 17.16 | 11.98 | 0.32 | 2.67 | 205.58 | 0.13 | 193.97 |
| ml_basketpriceRussia | Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS PJSC | MOEX:RM | RUSSIA | Financial Exchanges & Data | 4134.22 | 6.23 | 10.36 | 5.96 | 57.53 | 64.54 | 0.37 | 109.65 |
| ml_basketpriceRussia | MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC | GMKN:RM | RUSSIA | Diversified Metals & Mining | 23494.15 | 8.56 | 10.53 | 2.88 | 27.35 | 90.14 | 0.06 | 104.59 |
| ml_basketpriceRussia | MegaFon PJSC | MFON:RM | RUSSIA | Wireless Telecommunication Ser | 5976.40 | 10.63 | 9.74 | 1.20 | 12.32 | 103.54 | -0.14 | 103.55 |
Top 5 Russia Short Picks
| baskettable | value | stock | Country | Industry | MCapUSDmn | DividendYield | PE | PS | NetMarginPct | PayoutRatio | 52wkchange | Score |
| ml_basketpriceRussia | X5 Retail Group NV | FIVE:LI | RUSSIA | Food Retail | 8038.56 | 0.00 | 17.98 | 0.50 | 2.78 | 0.00 | 0.43 | -17.20 |
| ml_basketpriceRussia | Yandex NV | YNDX:US | RUSSIA | Internet Software & Services | 6304.03 | 0.00 | 29.05 | 5.42 | 18.66 | 0.00 | 0.22 | -12.60 |
| ml_basketpriceRussia | Evraz PLC | EVR:LN | RUSSIA | Steel | 3627.48 | 0.00 | 11.94 | 0.47 | 3.94 | 0.00 | 0.95 | -9.48 |
| ml_basketpriceRussia | TMK PJSC | TMKS:LI | RUSSIA | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 1095.12 | 0.90 | 39.63 | 0.27 | 0.68 | 35.67 | 0.17 | -5.54 |
| ml_basketpriceRussia | TMK PJSC | TRMK:RM | RUSSIA | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 1112.44 | 0.93 | 39.89 | 0.27 | 0.68 | 37.10 | 0.32 | -4.22 |
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Weekly Fund flow into Russia focused funds showed (Previous Week)39.6 USD mn of inflow
Top 10 Russia Focused Funds by Inflows Last Week
| Fund Name | fund flow mn$ | Total Assets mn$ | | HSBC GLOBAL INVESTMENT FUNDS - RUSSIA EQUITY (XU8R) | 26.4 | 288.4 | | EAST CAPITAL LUX - RUSSIAN FUND (EC0A) | 8.4 | 575.7 | | HSBC MSCI RUSSIA CAPPED UCITS ETF $ (H4ZM) | 5.0 | 56.7 | | HSBC GLOBAL INVESTMENT FUNDS - RUSSIA EQUITY - A USD (HSBRUAI) | 2.8 | 265.2 | | HSBC GLOBAL INVESTMENT FUNDS - RUSSIA EQUITY - A GBP ACCUMULATION (HSRSAAG) | 2.0 | 323.8 | | JPMORGAN FUNDS - RUSSIA FUND - D$ (JPMRUDA) | 0.9 | 516.4 | | DB X-TRACKERS - MSCI RUSSIA CAPPED INDEX UCITS ETF - 2D (XMRC) | 0.9 | 144.8 | | JPMORGAN FUNDS - RUSSIA FUND - A$ (JPMRUSS) | 0.4 | 516.4 | | ASSET PLUS BRIC FUND (ASPBRIC) | 0.0 | 1.6 | | HSBC MSCI RUSSIA CAPPED UCITS ETF $ (HRUB) | 0.0 | 52.1 |
Top 10 Russia Focused Funds by Outflow Last Week
| Fund Name | fund flow mn$ | Total Assets mn$ | | MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA ETF (RSX) | -4.3 | 1742.0 | | ISHARES MSCI RUSSIA ADR/GDR UCITS ETF (CEBB) | -2.4 | 205.7 | | GOLDMAN SACHS BRICS PORTFOLIO - I SHARES ACC (EUR) (GSBRIAE) | -1.7 | 194.6 | | DIREXION DAILY RUSSIA BULL 3X SHARES (RUSL) | -0.3 | 161.2 | | GOLDMAN SACHS BRICS PORTFOLIO - R (GSBRACC) | -0.3 | 178.9 | | DWS RUSSIA (DWSRUSS) | 0.0 | 178.6 | | INVESTOR RUSSIA (DWSRUSS) | 0.0 | 178.6 | | SOURCE RDX UCITS ETF (RDXS) | 0.0 | 20.9 | | HSBC MSCI RUSSIA CAPPED UCITS ETF $ (HRUB) | 0.0 | 52.1 | | ASSET PLUS BRIC FUND (ASPBRIC) | 0.0 | 1.6 |
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