ML Aluminium
By: Midlincoln Analyst

Description
For this basket we consider aluminium review and related busineses
Comment
Best last week among stocks was Vale SA (VALE5:BZ) +9.94%, Vale SA (VALE3:BZ) +9.66%, United Co RUSAL PLC (486:HK) +9.65%,
While worst last week among stocks was Alfa SAB de CV (ALFAA:MM) -3.39%, ACC Ltd (ACC:IN) -3.00%, Amcor Ltd/Australia (AMC:AU) -1.93%,
Best last month among stocks was Vedanta Resources PLC (VED:LN) +170.25%, Vale SA (VALE5:BZ) +157.16%, Vale SA (VALE3:BZ) +115.91%,
While worst last month among stocks was Hankook Tire Co Ltd (161390:KS) -13.40%, Kobe Steel Ltd (5406:JP) -8.91%, ACC Ltd (ACC:IN) -6.11%,
Best YTD among stocks was Vedanta Resources PLC (VED:LN) +170.25%, Vale SA (VALE5:BZ) +157.16%, Vale SA (VALE3:BZ) +115.91%,
While worst YTD among stocks was Kobe Steel Ltd (5406:JP) -23.42%, Alfa SAB de CV (ALFAA:MM) -21.98%, (2474:TT) -3.43%,
Chart: Aluminium Price on a Shaky Up Trend With Lots of Gaps Down

Source: ML, Bloomberg
Aluminium Cost Curve
Alcoa power contract uncertainty 'coming down to the wire'Earnings upside forecast for Press MetalSlower Increase in China's Capacity Will Continue to Buoy ...Alcoa's Final Quarterly Numbers Before Split Are UpWhy You Need Lithium: For Electric Tears
Aluminium Price
Metals bed in LME Week stability; zinc/tin/ali set multi-yr highsCopper, aluminium prices hold at highs after stock fallsShanghai aluminium hits 2-year high on coal price surgeOverbought aluminium sells off, most metals prices edge higherRusal Releases Production Totals for Third Quarter
Alumina Price
Aluminum Price Forecast, October 2016: Trading with Downside BiasAluminum Prices Hit a 15-month High As Energy Prices RiseCentury Aluminum Co. (CENX) Stock Price Down 5.8% on ...US judge dismisses aluminum price-fixing litigationGoldman Sachs lifts aluminum price forecast
Alumina Price
Alcoa (AA) Announces Completion of Arconic (ARNC) Separation ...CME Group Announces First Trades of Alumina FOB Australia ...United Company RUSAL Plc: Third Quarter 2016 Trading UpdateThe 1 Case for Buying Alcoa Inc Stock NowNorsk Hydro's (NHYDY) CEO Svein Richard Brandtzaeg on Q3 ...
Carbon Anodes
Power/Performance Bits: Nov. 1From ancient fossils to future carsGlobal Pre-Baked Anode Market 2016 - Aluchemie, Rheinfelden ...Algae May Be Key To Better Lithium Ion BatteriesIn your phone, in their air
Electricity In Aluminium Production
Alcoa: Thousands of Victorian jobs in the balance as Portland ...China is most efficient aluminium producer nationAlcoa warns of 'escalating electricity prices' as it negotiates new ...LME WEEK 2016: China is the most efficient aluminium producer ...Alcoa power contract uncertainty 'coming down to the wire'
Aluminium ECM Deals
Alcoa (AA) Announces Completion of Arconic (ARNC) Separation ...Subscribe to Endurance Technologies IPO: KRChokseyIs this Large Market Cap Stock target price reasonable for Aluminum ...CGN Said to Weigh $400 Million IPO of Former 1MDB Power AssetsPRESS DIGEST - Wall Street Journal - Oct 27
Aluminium DCM Deals
BMW 7 Series Plant: Dingolfing, GermanyRedesigned Duramax 6.6L Diesel Offered on 2017 Silverado HDCounty Commission passes budgetWise Metals Trades Point to Problems Valuing Distressed DebtMoody's Upgrades Kaiser's CFR to Ba2, Rates New Notes Ba3
Effect of Coal price on Aluminium
Shanghai aluminium hits 2-year high on coal price surgeCanberra, Spring Street and NSW coal to soften Hazelwood blowUnited Company RUSAL Plc: Third Quarter 2016 Trading UpdateInvestors and traders dare to hope over metal pricesAlcoa: Thousands of Victorian jobs in the balance as Portland ...
Aluminium Vertical Integration
Emirates Global Aluminium chief says Chinese producers will keep ...Magneti Marelli Celebrates 40 Years Of Powertrain In Sanford, North ...Chinese Overcapacity Makes for Tough Going on International ...Fitch Rates Tecnoglass' Proposed Sr. Notes 'BB-(EXP)'Magneti Marelli Celebrates 40 years of Powertrain in Sanford, NC
Emerging Markets Aluminium Producers
Metals prices remain upbeatMetals continue to show strengthElectric cars will influence demand for metals more than oilMetals prices start the week slightly firmerMetals prices stronger, rallies look robust
Developed Markets Aluminium Producers
Metals bed in LME Week stability; zinc/tin/ali set multi-yr highsLME WEEK-Europe's aluminium rolled product demand robust-NovelisArconic launchesAluminum Tube Market Top Manufacturers 2021 Analysis and ReviewChina is most efficient aluminium producer nation
Aluminium In Automotive Industry
Radical Change In Oversize Novelty Car Bow Industry Causes Full ...Real Industry Subsidiary Acquires Assets of Beck Aluminum Alloys ...Constellium adds auto aluminium line in FranceAlcoa Rises, Arconic Slips in Market DebutEurope's aluminum rolled product demand robust: Novelis
Aluminium versus Steel
Steel vs concrete debate rages onToday's Market View - Amur Minerals and MetmincoBest Deals for Apple Watch 2Aluminum Versus Steel Aerial LaddersSteel cannot compete with aluminium in vehicle lightweightingCountry Composition
| Country | Weight % |
| INDIA | 13.64 |
| CHINA | 9.09 |
| TAIWAN | 9.09 |
| BRITAIN | 9.09 |
| BRAZIL | 9.09 |
| JAPAN | 4.55 |
| 4.55 |
| MEXICO | 4.55 |
| RUSSIA | 4.55 |
| AUSTRALIA | 4.55 |
| SOUTH KOREA | 4.55 |
| NORWAY | 4.55 |
| NEW ZEALAND | 4.55 |
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/Sector Composition
| Country | Weight % |
| INDIA | 13.64 |
| CHINA | 9.09 |
| TAIWAN | 9.09 |
| BRITAIN | 9.09 |
| BRAZIL | 9.09 |
| JAPAN | 4.55 |
| 4.55 |
| MEXICO | 4.55 |
| RUSSIA | 4.55 |
| AUSTRALIA | 4.55 |
| SOUTH KOREA | 4.55 |
| NORWAY | 4.55 |
| NEW ZEALAND | 4.55 |
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Key Basket Multiples
| Stocks | Total MCap US mn | Payout Ratio | Div Yield | PE | NetMargin | 1yr Return |
| 19 | 288399.4 | 35.0 | 2.5 | 15.30 | 10.69 | 0.3 |
| value | MCap US mn | DividendYield | PE | PS | NetMarginPct | PayoutRatio | 52wkchange | Score |
| 5942.98 | 3.99 | 9.17 | 2.33 | 25.41 | 36.59 | -0.18 | 50.24 |
| Amcor Ltd/Australia | 13046.37 | 3.87 | 18.65 | 1.32 | 7.08 | 72.18 | 0.20 | 58.39 |
| Vale SA | 35506.00 | 0.00 | 10.77 | 1.36 | 12.63 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.03 |
| Vale SA | 35506.00 | 0.03 | 10.04 | 1.36 | 13.55 | 0.30 | 0.79 | 2.19 |
| Rio Tinto PLC | 65813.42 | 3.27 | 16.07 | 2.01 | 12.51 | 52.55 | 0.02 | 46.60 |
| Rio Tinto Ltd | 65812.62 | 2.75 | 19.02 | 2.01 | 10.57 | 52.31 | 0.23 | 41.67 |
| Aluminum Corp of China Ltd | 7896.58 | 0.00 | 1261.33 | 0.46 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 | -999.99 |
| China Hongqiao Group Ltd | 6514.86 | 3.52 | 6.66 | 0.78 | 11.71 | 23.44 | 0.76 | 26.84 |
| ACC Ltd | 4231.64 | 1.49 | 34.07 | 2.38 | 6.99 | 50.76 | 0.08 | 21.35 |
| Vedanta Resources PLC | 2476.79 | 2.83 | - | 0.21 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.26 | -2.15 |
| Hindalco Industries Ltd | 4857.04 | 0.78 | 12.96 | 0.31 | 2.39 | 10.11 | 0.84 | -2.03 |
| Kobe Steel Ltd | 3044.49 | 1.93 | 27.26 | 0.18 | 0.66 | 52.61 | -0.34 | 23.26 |
| Alfa SAB de CV | 7630.43 | 2.40 | 16.27 | 0.51 | 3.13 | 39.05 | -0.27 | 23.23 |
| Fletcher Building Ltd | 5157.10 | 4.11 | 15.50 | 0.76 | 4.90 | 63.71 | 0.54 | 51.24 |
| Norsk Hydro ASA | 9597.31 | 2.61 | 20.29 | 0.97 | 4.78 | 52.96 | 0.33 | 35.37 |
| United Co RUSAL PLC | 5485.20 | 2.22 | 7.85 | 0.70 | 8.92 | 17.43 | -0.01 | 16.07 |
| Hankook Tire Co Ltd | 6010.72 | 0.81 | 8.33 | 1.02 | 12.24 | 6.75 | 0.28 | 8.53 |
| Giant Manufacturing Co Ltd | 2655.69 | 2.66 | 24.26 | 1.43 | 5.89 | 64.53 | -0.04 | 43.71 |
| Walsin Lihwa Corp | 1214.14 | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 | -1.95 |
Index Sector Valuations vs GEM Average
| Sector | Sector MCap US mn | Sector MCap Share in Total | Gem Sector Share In Total GEM | GEM Sector MCAP USmn | Payout Ratio | GEM Payout Ratio | Div Yield | GEM Div Yield | PE | PEGEM | PE Discount vs GEM | NetMargin | NetMarginGEM | Margin Diff. vs GEM | 1yr Return | GEM 1yr Return |
| Consumer Discretionary | 8666.4 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 509681.0 | 24.5 | 27.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 13.2 | 16.4 | -19.5 | 10.3 | 9.6 | -0.7 | 0.2 | 3.1 |
| Industrials | 8844.6 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 453138.2 | 33.7 | 23.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 16.3 | 18.6 | -12.4 | 3.1 | 11.4 | 8.3 | -0.2 | 22.9 |
| Materials | 264945.4 | 91.9 | 7.6 | 590209.4 | 35.3 | 27.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 15.5 | 18.1 | -14.4 | 10.6 | 9.8 | -0.8 | 0.3 | -0.1 |
Top 5 ML Aluminium Long Picks
| baskettable | value | stock | Country | Industry | MCapUSDmn | DividendYield | PE | PS | NetMarginPct | PayoutRatio | 52wkchange | Score |
| ml_basketpricealum | Giant Manufacturing Co Ltd | 9921:TT | TAIWAN | Leisure Products | 2655.69 | 2.66 | 24.26 | 1.43 | 5.89 | 64.53 | -0.04 | 43.71 |
| ml_basketpricealum | Rio Tinto PLC | RIO:LN | BRITAIN | Diversified Metals & Mining | 65813.42 | 3.27 | 16.07 | 2.01 | 12.51 | 52.55 | 0.02 | 46.60 |
| ml_basketpricealum | | 2474:TT | | | 5942.98 | 3.99 | 9.17 | 2.33 | 25.41 | 36.59 | -0.18 | 50.24 |
| ml_basketpricealum | Fletcher Building Ltd | FBU:NZ | NEW ZEALAND | Construction Materials | 5157.10 | 4.11 | 15.50 | 0.76 | 4.90 | 63.71 | 0.54 | 51.24 |
| ml_basketpricealum | Amcor Ltd/Australia | AMC:AU | AUSTRALIA | Paper Packaging | 13046.37 | 3.87 | 18.65 | 1.32 | 7.08 | 72.18 | 0.20 | 58.39 |
Top 5 ML Aluminium Short Picks
| baskettable | value | stock | Country | Industry | MCapUSDmn | DividendYield | PE | PS | NetMarginPct | PayoutRatio | 52wkchange | Score |
| ml_basketpricealum | Walsin Lihwa Corp | 1605:TT | TAIWAN | Electrical Components & Equipm | 1214.14 | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 | -1.95 |
| ml_basketpricealum | Hindalco Industries Ltd | HNDL:IN | INDIA | Aluminum | 4857.04 | 0.78 | 12.96 | 0.31 | 2.39 | 10.11 | 0.84 | -2.03 |
| ml_basketpricealum | Vedanta Resources PLC | VED:LN | INDIA | Diversified Metals & Mining | 2476.79 | 2.83 | - | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 | -2.15 |
| ml_basketpricealum | Aluminum Corp of China Ltd | 2600:HK | CHINA | Aluminum | 7896.58 | 0.00 | 1261.33 | 0.46 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 | -999.99 |
| ml_basketpricealum | Vale SA | VALE3:BZ | BRAZIL | Steel | 35506.00 | 0.00 | 10.77 | 1.36 | 12.63 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.03 |
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Top 10 Aluminium Focused Funds by Inflows Last Week
Top 10 Aluminium Focused Funds by Outflow Last Week
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