Weekly Strategy

October 6, 2016

MidLincoln Research

Aggregates for Funds

BIG Data Global Investment Strategy with focus on GEMs

Midlincoln Aggregates for funds

for week ending last Friday (inclusive)

                                     
FocusObjectiveAsset ClassFlow USD mn
CommoditiesINDUSTRIAL METALSCommodity2.21
CommoditiesPRECIOUS METAL SECTOREquity133.91
CommoditiesPRECIOUS METALSCommodity764.07
CommoditiesPRECIOUS METALSMixed Allocation0.46
countryAUSTRALIAEquity25.26
countryAUSTRALIAFixed Income11.99
countryAUSTRALIAMixed Allocation-0.15
countryBRAZILEquity-5.71
countryBRAZILFixed Income33.45
countryCHINAEquity1610.67
countryCHINAFixed Income-11.37
countryINDIAEquity-149.82
countryINDIAFixed Income-1.05
countryISRAELEquity0.04
countryJAPANEquity211.48
countryJAPANFixed Income4.02
countryKOREAEquity11.88
countryPOLANDEquity-1.68
countryRUSSIAEquity29.64
countryRUSSIAFixed Income-0.17
countrySOUTH AFRICAEquity-0.04
countrySPAINEquity-3.37
CountryTAIWANEquity-6.38
countryTURKEYEquity-10.41
countryUNITED KINGDOMEquity-65.44
industryBASIC MATERIALS SECTOREquity21.70
industryCOMMUNICATIONS SECTOREquity62.62
industryENERGY SECTOREquity-3.31
industryFINANCIAL SECTOREquity-4.11
industryHEALTH CARE SECTOREquity100.82
industryINDUSTRIAL SECTOREquity-0.33
industryMULTIPLE SECTOREquity-0.02
industryNATURAL RESOURCES SECTOREquity-123.11
industryREAL ESTATE SECTORAlternative1.19
industryREAL ESTATE SECTOREquity215.64
industryTECHNOLOGY SECTOREquity-9.35
industryUTILITIES SECTOREquity-195.35
regionAFRICAN REGIONEquity45.44
regionASIAN PACIFIC REGIONEquity23.01
regionASIAN PACIFIC REGIONFixed Income106.63
regionASIAN PACIFIC REGION EX JAPANEquity94.75
regionASIAN PACIFIC REGION EX JAPANFixed Income-3.72
regionASIAN PACIFIC REGION EX JAPANMixed Allocation-0.85
regionEASTERN EUROPEAN REGIONEquity-5.19
regionEASTERN EUROPEAN REGIONFixed Income6.91
regionEUROPEAN REGIONEquity-138.28
regionEUROPEAN REGIONFixed Income-0.14
regionEUROPEAN REGIONMixed Allocation0.16
regionLATIN AMERICAN REGIONEquity-27.77
regionLATIN AMERICAN REGIONFixed Income17.28
regionMIDDLE EAST REGIONEquity-9.05
regionMIDDLE EAST REGIONFixed Income-5.82
regionNORDIC REGIONEquity-0.23
regionNORTH AMERICAN REGIONEquity56.89
regionNORTH AMERICAN REGIONFixed Income0.25
RiskGOVERNMENT BONDFixed Income370.06
RiskGOVERNMENT BONDMixed Allocation0.07
RiskINFLATION PROTECTEDBrazil-0.19
RiskINFLATION PROTECTEDFixed Income205.94
RiskLONG SHORTAlternative-66.13
RiskLONG SHORTEquity382.31
RiskLONG SHORTFixed Income-1.52
RiskLONG SHORTMixed Allocation-0.08
SectorAGRICULTURECommodity1.93
SectorAGRICULTUREEquity-0.01
SectorCONSUMER DISCRETIONARYEquity-15.25
SectorCONSUMER STAPLESEquity-93.44
segmentBRICEquity-17.57
segmentBRICFixed Income-0.14
segmentDEVELOPED MARKETSEquity-832.56
segmentEMEAEquity0.63
segmentEMEAFixed Income1.39
segmentEMERGING MARKETSEquity-959.15
segmentGCCEquity1.15
segmentGCCFixed Income0.00
segmentGCCMixed Allocation0.01
segmentMENAEquity-4.40
segmentMENAFixed Income0.65
SizeLARGE-CAPEquity2522.37
SizeMID-CAPCommodity0.12
SizeMID-CAPEquity203.12
SizeSMALL-CAPEquity129.28

                         

                                   

Source: Midlincoln Research

Fund Aggregates



Chart: US Banks Shares Spike On Higher Rates Expectations, Steeper Curve - Adding to Rate Shenanigans and perhaps stimulating more GEM Outflows

Source: ML, WSJ




Emerging markets fund flow showed -959.2 USD mn of outflow.. While Frontier Markets funds showed 0.0 USD mn of inflows.


BRAZIL Equity funds showed -5.7 USD mn of outflow.
BRAZIL Fixed Income funds showed 33.5 USD mn of inflow.
CHINA Equity funds showed 1610.7 USD mn of inflow.
CHINA Fixed Income funds showed -11.4 USD mn of outflow.
INDIA Equity funds showed -149.8 USD mn of outflow.
INDIA Fixed Income funds showed -1.0 USD mn of outflow.
KOREA Equity funds showed 11.9 USD mn of inflow.
RUSSIA Equity funds showed 29.6 USD mn of inflow.
RUSSIA Fixed Income funds showed -0.2 USD mn of outflow.
SOUTH AFRICA Equity funds showed 0.0 USD mn of inflow.
TURKEY Equity funds showed -10.4 USD mn of outflow.


COMMUNICATIONS SECTOR Equity funds showed 62.6 USD mn of inflow.
ENERGY SECTOR Equity funds showed -3.3 USD mn of outflow.
FINANCIAL SECTOR Equity funds showed -4.1 USD mn of outflow.
REAL ESTATE SECTOR Alternative funds showed 1.2 USD mn of inflow.
REAL ESTATE SECTOR Equity funds showed 215.6 USD mn of inflow.
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR Equity funds showed -9.4 USD mn of outflow.
UTILITIES SECTOR Equity funds showed -195.4 USD mn of outflow.


LONG SHORT Alternative funds showed -66.1 USD mn of outflow.
LONG SHORT Equity funds showed 382.3 USD mn of inflow.
LONG SHORT Fixed Income funds showed -1.5 USD mn of outflow.
LONG SHORT Mixed Allocation funds showed -0.1 USD mn of outflow.


It is worth noting that MidLincoln data shows flow dynamics for last week ending last Friday where as EPFR data reports data only to last Wednesday, which makes ML data far more relevant

Top 5 fund winners and Top 5 losers by country by inflow

Russia Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity HSBC Global Investment Funds - Russia Equity31.07
Equity East Capital Lux - Russian Fund is an open-end8.91
Equity HSBC MSCI Russia Capped UCITS ETF $ is a7.26
Equity LYXOR ETF RUSSIA (Dow Jones Russia GDR) -5.86
Equity LYXOR ETF RUSSIA Dow Jones Russia GDR - D5.72

Russia Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity Market Vectors Russia ETF is an exchange-traded-13.69
Equity JPMorgan Funds - Russia Fund is an open-end-5.84
Equity JPMorgan Funds - Russia Fund is an open-end-5.59
Equity iShares MSCI Russi a ADR/GDR UCITS ETF-4.60
Equity Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3x Shares is an-3.17

Source: MidLincoln Research


China Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity HSBC Global Investment Funds - Chinese99.99
Equity Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund is a non-diversified,67.33
Equity W.I.S.E. - CSI 300 China TrackerĀ® is an index-tracking16.72
Equity GAM Star plc - China Equity is a UCITS10.42
Equity K China Equity Fund is an open-ended fund8.95

China Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity iShares China Large-Cap ETF is an exchange-traded-99.99
Equity Hang Seng Investment Index Funds Series --96.05
Equity HSBC Global Investment Funds - Chinese-45.31
Equity First State Global Umbrella PLC - China-24.67
Equity HSBC Global Investment Funds - Chinese Equity-24.23

Source: MidLincoln Research


South Africa Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity NEXT FUNDS FTSE/JSE Africa Top40 Linked-0.01
Equity iShares MSCI South Africa UCITS ETF is an-0.03

South Africa Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity iShares MSCI South Africa UCITS ETF is an-0.03
Equity NEXT FUNDS FTSE/JSE Africa Top40 Linked-0.01

Source: MidLincoln Research


Korea Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity Korea Equity Fund, Inc. is a non-diversified,5.83
Equity iShares MSCI South Korea Capped ETF is an3.74
Equity JPMorgan Funds - Korea Equity is an open-end3.59
Equity JPMorgan Funds - Korea Equity is an open-end2.57
Equity db x-trackers - MSCI Korea TRN Index UCITS1.21

Korea Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity INVESCO Korean Equity Fund is a UCITS-2.71
Equity INVESCO Korean Equity Fund is a UCITS certified-2.63
Equity Deutsche X-trackers MSCI South Korea Hedged-0.45
Equity Baring Korea Feeder Fund is an open-end-0.24
Equity WisdomTree Korea Hedged Equity Fund is an-0.03

Source: MidLincoln Research


India Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund, Inc.66.93
Equity The Lyxor ETF MSCI India is a UCITS compliant9.69
Equity Aberdeen Global - India Equity Fund is6.88
Equity AMUNDI ETF MSCI INDIA UCITS ETF is a UCITS4.42
Equity GS India Equity Portfolio is a Portfolio3.67

India Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded-82.54
Equity Aberdeen Global - India Equity Fund is-75.88
Equity WisdomTree India Earnings Fund is an exchange-traded-61.43
Equity Excel India Fund is an open-end fund incorporated-6.40
Equity iShares India 50 ETF is an exchange-traded-5.61

Source: MidLincoln Research


Turkey Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity The Lyxor ETF Turkey (DJ Turkey Titans 20)-10.41

Turkey Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity The Lyxor ETF Turkey (DJ Turkey Titans 20)-10.41

Source: MidLincoln Research


Brazil Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Fixed Income Fondo Mutuo Security Fixed Income BRL is34.00
Equity Lyxor ETF Brazil (Ibovespa) USD is an exchange6.35
Equity db x-trackers - MSCI Brazil TRN Index UCITS1.23
Equity ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped is short0.79
Fixed Income Aberdeen Global - Brazil Bond Fund is a0.54

Brazil Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF (Dist) is an-5.90
Equity Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 3x Shares is an-3.29
Equity NEXT FUNDS Ibovespa Linked Exchange Traded-2.24
Equity NEXT FUNDS Ibovespa Linked Exchange Traded-2.12
Fixed Income Santander FIC FI Renda Fixa I Credito Privado-0.63

Source: MidLincoln Research


Australia Inflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Australia (AUD) is26.07
Fixed Income11.68
Equity Candriam Equities L - Australia is a SICAV4.33
Equity Australia Equity Income Fund is an open-end3.00
Equity db x-trackers S&P/ASX 200 UCITS ETF (DR)1.02

Australia Outflows

assclassprofileflow USD mln$
Equity iShares MSCI Australia UCITS ETF is an open-end,-4.60
Equity UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Australia (AUD)-2.26
Equity SmartOZZY is an investment fund incorporated-1.25
Equity Baring International Umbrella - Baring Australia-0.81
Equity SmartMOZY is an exchange traded fund listed-0.28

Source: MidLincoln Research


Canada Inflows


Canada Outflows

Source: MidLincoln Research

Good luck! And don’t stay out of the market for too long. As the policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.

Ovanes Oganisyan

research@midlincoln.com

 October 6, 2016· Midlincoln Research · midlincoln.com