ML Agribusiness
By: Research Team

Description
Covering Global Agribusiness
Comment
Best last week among stocks was Bunge Ltd (BG:US) +5.95%, Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV:MK) +4.86%, CNH Industrial NV (CNHI:IM) +4.14%,
While worst last week among stocks was Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc (POT:CN) -6.84%, CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF:US) -6.20%, Yara International ASA (YAR:NO) -5.86%,
Best last month among stocks was Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV:MK) +25.69%, Kernel Holding SA (0KE:GR) +22.35%, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM:US) +14.82%,
While worst last month among stocks was MHP SA (MHPC:LI) -3.23%, Deere & Co (DE:US) -2.26%, Ros Agro PLC (AGRO:LI) -1.71%,
Best YTD among stocks was Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk PT (CPIN:IJ) +58.15%, Tyson Foods Inc (TSN:US) +37.60%, Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (SQM/B:CI) +35.66%,
While worst YTD among stocks was CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF:US) -38.32%, Associated British Foods PLC (ABF:LN) -27.96%, Incitec Pivot Ltd (IPL:AU) -23.02%,
Chart: More Crops are Used for Animal Feeds

Source: WorldBank
Chart: Ferts Consumption Made a Big Jump

Source: WorldBank
Chart: Despite That Land under Cereals Has been Flat for A while

Source: WorldBank
Chart: To Produce More Food

Source: WorldBank
Chart: And Crops are Rising

Source: WorldBank
Chart: Cereal Yields are on the Rise
As productivity improves

Source: WorldBank
Chart: But Arable Land Per Capital of Global Population is Rapidly Declining

Source: WorldBank
Chart: Arable Land % of Total Has Been Stable for a While

Source: WorldBank
Chart: Contribution to Global GDP from Agribusiness is Falling

Source: WorldBank
Chart: Defarming is On Going

Source: WorldBank
Chart: Agri Machinery Usage is on the Rise

Source: WorldBank
Chart: Agricultural Land % of Total
Peaked around 90tis and stable

Source: WorldBank
Agriculture Finance
e-finance begins automating agricultural holdings documentsAfrica: Kigali to Host Key Meet On Agric Financing Next WeekPeople in agriculture underemployed, says Arun JaitleyEgypt- e-finance begins automating agricultural holdings documentsFinance Ministry to banks: Hike credit flow to small farmers by 10 per ...
Agricultural Land Prices
Farmland prices blossom in stateLatest Washington real-estate gold rush: farmsGrain prices stuntedBrexit fears for agricultural land values 'allayed'Foreigners own about 15% of Latvian agricultural land - farming ...
Agricultural Commodities
Agricultural Commodities AwakenSOFTS-Raw sugar hovers near five-week low, robusta steadyExports of seven agricultural commodities fall in May on weak global ...SOFTS-Raw sugar falls to 5-week low, arabica easeGRAINS-Corn, soy ease as investors eye big US harvests
Fertilizers
Global Specialty Fertilizers Market Report 2015-2022 - Analysis ...Fertilizer Access Grows Farmers, Food and FinanceWhat Are the Near-Term Demand Expectations for NPK Fertilizers?Prices of All Fertilizers Lower AgainFarmers World in soil testing, customising fertilizers
Productivity in Agriculture
PM Narendra Modi to Niti Aayog: Consider broader goals for ...Increased productivity with intensive rotational cell grazing and ...FPCCI for setting of agriculture desk to increase productivityStrain: Lots of potential in trade with CubaProductivity Commission attacks competition 'effects test' and farm ...Country Composition
| Country | Weight % |
| United States
| 28.13 |
| Malaysia
| 12.50 |
| Russian Federation
| 6.25 |
| Indonesia
| 6.25 |
| Ukraine
| 6.25 |
| Canada
| 6.25 |
| United Kingdom
| 6.25 |
| Chile
| 3.13 |
| Taiwan
| 3.13 |
| Singapore
| 3.13 |
| France
| 3.13 |
| Switzerland
| 3.13 |
| Australia
| 3.13 |
| Hong Kong (SAR)
| 3.13 |
| Norway
| 3.13 |
| China
| 3.13 |
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/Sector Composition
| Country | Weight % |
| United States
| 28.13 |
| Malaysia
| 12.50 |
| Russian Federation
| 6.25 |
| Indonesia
| 6.25 |
| Ukraine
| 6.25 |
| Canada
| 6.25 |
| United Kingdom
| 6.25 |
| Chile
| 3.13 |
| Taiwan
| 3.13 |
| Singapore
| 3.13 |
| France
| 3.13 |
| Switzerland
| 3.13 |
| Australia
| 3.13 |
| Hong Kong (SAR)
| 3.13 |
| Norway
| 3.13 |
| China
| 3.13 |
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Key Basket Multiples
| Stocks | Total MCap US mn | Payout Ratio | Div Yield | PE | NetMargin | 1yr Return |
| 32 | 319962.6 | 43.0 | 2.6 | 21.37 | 8.57 | 2.2 |
Results
2015-11-03 Archer-Daniels-Midland Co
Cons
What Challenged Archer Daniels Midland's Results in 1Q16?Bunge second-quarter profit up on agribusiness results, shares rally
2015-11-23 Tyson Foods Inc
Cons
Tyson Foods Inc (NYSE:TSN): Might be a Great PickAnalysts: Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE:TSN) stock is worth $75.73
2015-11-25 Deere & Co
industr
Is a Disappointment in Store for Eaton (ETN) in Q2 Earnings?Deere & Company Net Income Is Trending Lower
2015-11-03 Mosaic Co/The
mater
RBC Capital Downgrades Mosaic Co to Sector PerformFertilizer Industry: Bottomed or More Pain Ahead?
2015-11-05 CF Industries Holdings Inc
mater
Investor Watch: Earnings and Street Rating Review for CF Industries ...Current CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) PT Means Stock Is ...
| value | stock | Country | Industry | MCap US mn | DividendYield | PE | PS | NetMarginPct | PayoutRatio | 52wkchange | Score |
| Incitec Pivot Ltd | IPL:AU | Australia
| Agricultural Chemicals | 3634.59 | 4.91% | 16.98 | 1.35 | 7.95 | 83.37 | -18.69 | 30.25 |
| Agrium Inc | AGU:CN | Canada
| Agricultural Chemicals | 12620.95 | 3.81% | 12.72 | 0.88 | 6.92 | 48.46 | -6.48 | 10.78 |
| Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc | POT:CN | Canada
| Agricultural Chemicals | 13356.12 | 6.23% | 17.29 | 2.59 | 14.98 | 107.72 | -36.34 | 43.66 |
| Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA | SQM/B:CI | Chile
| Agricultural Chemicals | 6993.28 | 0.69% | 32.87 | 3.80 | 11.56 | 22.68 | 91.48 | 67.45 |
| China BlueChemical Ltd | 3983:HK | China
| Agricultural Chemicals | 927.38 | 6.06% | 7.41 | 0.58 | 7.83 | 44.90 | -34.05 | -14.13 |
| Eridania Beghin-Say | BG:LN | France
| Agricultural Producers | 0.00 | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -25.39 |
| China Agri-Industries Holdings Ltd | 606:HK | Hong Kong (SAR)
| Agricultural Producers | 1834.51 | - | - | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -20.40 | -45.80 |
| Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk PT | CPIN:IJ | Indonesia
| Agricultural Producers | 4939.15 | 0.73% | 29.97 | 1.87 | 6.24 | 21.88 | 55.73 | 28.47 |
| Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT | AALI:IJ | Indonesia
| Agricultural Producers | 2186.82 | - | 25.42 | 2.01 | 7.91 | -0.00 | -23.22 | -66.14 |
| Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd | FGV:MK | Malaysia
| Agricultural Producers | 1659.66 | 2.16% | - | 0.40 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 12.15 | -13.25 |
| PPB Group Bhd | PEP:MK | Malaysia
| Agricultural Producers | 4664.45 | 1.56% | 17.82 | 4.52 | 25.36 | 27.80 | 4.96 | 14.90 |
| Genting Plantations Bhd | GENP:MK | Malaysia
| Agricultural Producers | 2055.33 | 0.57% | 49.83 | 6.24 | 12.52 | 28.40 | 1.90 | -32.40 |
| IOI Corp Bhd | IOI:MK | Malaysia
| Agricultural Producers | 6556.50 | 1.89% | 29.18 | 2.26 | 7.75 | 55.15 | 1.97 | 10.28 |
| Yara International ASA | YAR:NO | Norway
| Agricultural Chemicals | 8754.44 | 5.47% | 7.29 | 0.74 | 10.15 | 39.88 | -27.58 | -10.25 |
| Ros Agro PLC | AGRO:LI | Russian Federation
| Agricultural Products Whslrs | 1961.00 | 8.08% | 4.83 | 1.53 | 31.68 | 39.03 | 85.15 | 125.62 |
| Uralkali PJSC | URKA:RM | Russian Federation
| Agricultural Chemicals | 8165.56 | - | 112.40 | 1.95 | 1.73 | -0.00 | 14.72 | -121.34 |
| Golden Agri-Resources Ltd | E5H:LI | Singapore
| Agricultural Producers | 0.00 | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | -25.38 |
| Syngenta AG | SYNN:VX | Switzerland
| Agricultural Chemicals | 36488.09 | 2.85% | 30.63 | 2.79 | 9.11 | 87.30 | -1.13 | 39.24 |
| Taiwan Fertilizer Co Ltd | 1722:TT | Taiwan
| Agricultural Chemicals | 1366.65 | 4.71% | 17.82 | 2.59 | 14.53 | 83.93 | 1.11 | 56.36 |
| Kernel Holding SA | 0KE:GR | Ukraine
| Agricultural Producers | 1202.84 | 1.62% | - | - | 0.00 | -0.00 | 37.53 | 12.13 |
| MHP SA | MHPC:LI | Ukraine
| Agricultural Producers | 951.00 | 8.37% | 10.79 | 0.80 | 7.41 | 90.31 | -1.42 | 60.12 |
| Associated British Foods PLC | ABF:LN | United Kingdom
| Packaged Food | 28110.96 | 1.31% | 28.43 | 1.68 | 5.91 | 37.24 | -13.23 | -23.91 |
| CNH Industrial NV | CNHI:IM | United Kingdom
| Agricultural Machinery | 9811.36 | 2.00% | - | - | 0.00 | -0.00 | -19.16 | -44.56 |
| Tyson Foods Inc | TSN:US | United States
| Packaged Food | 29399.00 | 0.82% | 18.54 | 0.75 | 4.05 | 15.20 | 66.35 | 41.66 |
| Monsanto Co | MON:US | United States
| Agricultural Chemicals | 46436.00 | 2.04% | 24.12 | 3.56 | 14.76 | 49.20 | 6.61 | 21.05 |
| FMC Corp | FMC:US | United States
| Agricultural Chemicals | 6428.00 | 1.37% | 21.35 | 1.88 | 8.81 | 29.25 | 0.69 | -8.01 |
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Co | ADM:US | United States
| Agricultural Producers | 26406.00 | 2.67% | 20.24 | 0.42 | 2.08 | 54.04 | -2.29 | 8.18 |
| AGCO Corp | AGCO:US | United States
| Agricultural Machinery | 3955.00 | 1.08% | 16.42 | 0.56 | 3.41 | 17.73 | -11.93 | -32.61 |
| Deere & Co | DE:US | United States
| Agricultural Machinery | 24566.00 | 3.07% | 15.20 | 0.91 | 5.99 | 46.66 | -14.78 | -2.73 |
| Bunge Ltd | BG:US | United States
| Agricultural Products Whslrs | 9112.00 | 2.57% | 12.93 | 0.22 | 1.70 | 33.23 | -16.15 | -19.55 |
| Mosaic Co/The | MOS:US | United States
| Agricultural Chemicals | 9672.00 | 3.98% | 12.25 | 1.17 | 9.55 | 48.76 | -33.21 | -12.56 |
| CF Industries Holdings Inc | CF:US | United States
| Agricultural Chemicals | 5748.00 | 4.86% | 8.02 | 1.32 | 16.46 | 38.98 | -56.99 | -34.97 |
Index Sector Valuations vs GEM Average
| Sector | Sector MCap US mn | Sector MCap Share in Total | Gem Sector Share In Total GEM | GEM Sector MCAP USmn | Payout Ratio | GEM Payout Ratio | Div Yield | GEM Div Yield | PE | PEGEM | PE Discount vs GEM | NetMargin | NetMarginGEM | Margin Diff. vs GEM | 1yr Return | GEM 1yr Return |
| Consumer Staples | 121039.2 | 37.8 | 7.5 | 584775.3 | 33.4 | 38.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 22.3 | 28.2 | -20.9 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 15.1 | 12.3 |
| Industrials | 38332.4 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 453138.2 | 31.7 | 23.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 15.4 | 18.6 | -17.2 | 5.6 | 11.4 | 5.8 | -15.6 | 22.9 |
| Materials | 160591.1 | 50.2 | 7.6 | 590209.4 | 53.9 | 27.5 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 21.8 | 18.1 | 20.4 | 11.1 | 9.8 | -1.3 | -3.3 | -0.1 |
Top 5 ML Agribusiness Long Picks
| value | stock | Country | Industry | MCapUSDmn | DividendYield | PE | PS | NetMarginPct | PayoutRatio | 52wkchange | Score |
| Ros Agro PLC | AGRO:LI | Russian Federation
| Agricultural Products Whslrs | 1961.00 | 8.08% | 4.83 | 1.53 | 31.68 | 39.03 | 85.15 | 125.62 |
| Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA | SQM/B:CI | Chile
| Agricultural Chemicals | 6993.28 | 0.69% | 32.87 | 3.80 | 11.56 | 22.68 | 91.48 | 67.45 |
| MHP SA | MHPC:LI | Ukraine
| Agricultural Producers | 951.00 | 8.37% | 10.79 | 0.80 | 7.41 | 90.31 | -1.42 | 60.12 |
| Taiwan Fertilizer Co Ltd | 1722:TT | Taiwan
| Agricultural Chemicals | 1366.65 | 4.71% | 17.82 | 2.59 | 14.53 | 83.93 | 1.11 | 56.36 |
| Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc | POT:CN | Canada
| Agricultural Chemicals | 13356.12 | 6.23% | 17.29 | 2.59 | 14.98 | 107.72 | -36.34 | 43.66 |
Top 5 ML Agribusiness Short Picks
| value | stock | Country | Industry | MCapUSDmn | DividendYield | PE | PS | NetMarginPct | PayoutRatio | 52wkchange | Score |
| Uralkali PJSC | URKA:RM | Russian Federation
| Agricultural Chemicals | 8165.56 | - | 112.40 | 1.95 | 1.73 | -0.00 | 14.72 | -89.46 |
| Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT | AALI:IJ | Indonesia
| Agricultural Producers | 2186.82 | - | 25.42 | 2.01 | 7.91 | -0.00 | -23.22 | -34.25 |
| China Agri-Industries Holdings Ltd | 606:HK | Hong Kong (SAR)
| Agricultural Producers | 1834.51 | - | - | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -20.40 | -13.92 |
| CNH Industrial NV | CNHI:IM | United Kingdom
| Agricultural Machinery | 9811.36 | 2.00% | - | - | 0.00 | -0.00 | -19.16 | -12.67 |
| CF Industries Holdings Inc | CF:US | United States
| Agricultural Chemicals | 5748.00 | 4.86% | 8.02 | 1.32 | 16.46 | 38.98 | -56.99 | -3.09 |
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Weekly Fund flow into Agri focused funds showed (Previous Week)20.5 USD mn of inflow
Top 10 Agri Focused Funds by Inflows Last Week
| Fund Name | fund flow mn$ | Total Assets mn$ | | ETFS AGRICULTURE DJ-UBSCI (AIGA) | 10.6 | 240.6 | | POWERSHARES GLOBAL AGRICULTURE (PSUU) | 0.0 | 5.8 | | MIRAE ROGERS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT INDEX SPECIAL ASSET INVEST CMDTY-DERIVATIVE (5620974) | -0.1 | 71.4 |
Top 10 Agri Focused Funds by Outflow Last Week
| Fund Name | fund flow mn$ | Total Assets mn$ | | MIRAE ROGERS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT INDEX SPECIAL ASSET INVEST CMDTY-DERIVATIVE (5620974) | -0.1 | 71.4 | | POWERSHARES GLOBAL AGRICULTURE (PSUU) | 0.0 | 5.8 | | ETFS AGRICULTURE DJ-UBSCI (AIGA) | 10.6 | 240.6 |
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