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Supporting Data for ML Global Strategy 2022-09-21 |
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| It seems that in the current environment banks could make extra money. If they buy bonds on the market and use for collateral with central bank. The bonds traded on the market offer yields in line with annual inflation data perhaps a little bit less. But Fed rates or ECB rates stay way belo ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
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| Economic backdrop is fragile. One view suggests that emerging markets wealth has been mostly financed by China economic wins in the past 20 years. Ever since China became a WTO member and started trading globally other emerging markets felt positive impact. US impact on emerging markets was ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Strategy 2021-11-26 |
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| Money is a message or money is a record? No QR codes for private parties and little control over private money flow, have you got a wallet? Legacy banks are Neobanks with real estate investments and social costs burdens. Will spinning of bank branches and other real estate help to transfo ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML October Strategy 2021-10-26 |
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Age of the constellation Pisces yields to the Age of Aquarius. Or is it the age of Holocene surrenders to Anthropocene? The change of epoch coincides with current recalibration of economy and lifestyle Is this lifestyle recalibration is only in the beginning mode? What so drastically ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML September Strategy 2021-09-28 |
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China markets in focus China has not had an economic crisis since 1978 reforms Even in 2008 China recorded above growth above 9% And to all surprise even in 2020 China real growth was positive Looking at China macro statistics is difficult Any trend in China stats is always up If ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML August Strategy 2021-08-18 |
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The US markets strongly up YTD Emerging markets diverge and decline FED taper plans is one negative future event hanging over the markets New COVID economic after effects in some countries Reemergence of economic troubles all thought are gone by now China corporate Eurobonds increas ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Global Strategy 2021-07-08 |
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Tempting to call an end to a rally And there is no stagflation in site Global political picture still not easy US pulling out of Afghanistan created a pressure for Russia Russia integration with Belarus is also gaining speed and will be a source of all sorts of negative pressures on R ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Global Strategy 2021-06-08 |
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Good chance that markets will continue rallying Economic recovery is gaining speed Traveling is unlocked Economy and demand fully recover Some chance that markets start consolidating Scenario of moderate inflation Small correction in bond markets Rotation from IT sector into c ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln Strategy 2021-05-19 |
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Wars, conflicts and war zones expand Middle East and Azerbaijan in focus US pulling troops out of Afghanistan in focus Nuclear deal with Iran in focus All the acute news coming from the same part of the world Is it a calculated strategy or everything happens sporadically? China ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln Strategy 2021-04-08 |
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You want it Darker, we kill the flame Leaders Summit on Climate Urbanisation and climate change Pandemic and climate change Agriculture and climate change Steel production and climate change Fossil fuels and climate change IT sector and climate change Markets mechanism and ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Strategy 2021-03-10 |
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Disruption in defarming as a catalyst for economic growth There are still folks who leave rural areas for the cities But the number of folks who leave cities for the rural areas and smaller towns increased due to virus Deurbanisation demographic rebalancing may be temporary or may be a l ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln Global Stratetgy 2021-02-08 |
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Corporations are doing well post Covid 2021 Individuals and governments are less well in 2021 Precursors to political troubles in 2021 Where is a political weak spot emerging world or developed world? Left political forces are on the rise Where is globalisation next leg Disgloba ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln Global Strategy 2020-10-09 |
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| V or W? V for vaccination Hope that current economic growth levels will sustain in the fourth quarter FED is likely to further help the markets Need election over asap Each next election is more destabilising then previous Will democrats print more money than republicans? Corona ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Strategy 2020-06-23 |
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| Broad sector buy intact based Economies going back to normal Some sectors missed a quarter of earnings Missed earnings imply either shrinking equity or larger debt depending on fixed costs In either way missed earnings imply higher debt to equity ratio Missed earning in some cases imp ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Strategy 2020-05-29 |
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| Broad sector buy intact based Economies going back to normal Some sectors missed a quarter of earnings Missed earnings imply either shrinking equity or larger debt depending on fixed costs In either way missed earnings imply higher debt to equity ratio Missed earning in some cases imp ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML April Strategy 2020-04-27 |
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Markets on QE steroids and diverge from economic realities But so far FED measures included broad market tools and no specific bailouts of financial or industrial institutions No confidence that we have already seen the trough but cautious sector picking may be intact Trend set by new rea ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Strategy 2020-03-17 |
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Corona crisis rebalancing economy Coworking is not allowed, we work from home (if there is job) Healthcare sector will be bigger in the aftermath of the corona crisis IT sector will fare well in the corona crisis Oil sector deserves much smaller weight in global economy reflecting its ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Strategy 2020-02-19 |
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Fed is likely revert to rate cuts Unfortunately, dividends are the only hope for equity investors this year Coronavirus may help China soft landing China soft landing could bring record stimulus Energy prices are unlikely to rebound in light of possible global slowdown Key US large ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
November Strategy 2019-11-20 |
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Difficult times for China with Trump Dollar is not popular but why so low US yields? Global financial sector to shrink with low yields Global growth levels lackluster Market Levels Unsustainable ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln October Strategy 2019-10-21 |
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| Low rates environment asset cherry picking Carnivalisation of politics State owned is really the same as large free float? Missing oligarchs. Future belongs to globalists or to patriots? Goldilock IPOs ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln Strategy 2019-09-24 |
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Low rates environment good for asset prices or not Which emerging and developed markets counties are set to benefit the most in the current environment State owned is really the same as large free float. Post-modernistic corporations. Lack of ownership. ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln August Strategy 2019-09-04 |
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Impact of Fed rates decisions on valuations Study of Trump tweets impact markets or not Hong Kong, Russia protests similarities and difference and market impact Brexit and the pound how long is to short Analysts growth forecasts are rarely negative but when is the crash ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln July Strategy, Emerging Markets Catching Up 2019-07-16 |
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| Key Equity Performance Summary Performance Summary By Country Tactical and Strategic Stance Explained Russia was the best market YTD Botswana is the worst Argentina the best Equity Market in June Pakistan is the worst in June Emerging Markets Outlook US Market Outlook European ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln April Strategy, Justification for higher levels 2019-04-24 |
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| Stunning Performance YTD. Key Markets all in the lead! But is this just a bounce? on the back of greater volatility, which is worrying Forecasts say that possibly not a bounce. Net Income trln$ Capex US$ trln Free Cash Flow Generation $trln Price/Earnings Estimates Do not necess ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln March 2019 Strategy 2019-03-29 |
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| Equity Markets YTD to February End Dr. Copper Sais Emerging Markets Rally Is Stalling US Treasuries Firming Up and the Fed guidance is dovish More of investment managers chasing local emerging markets yields Brent oil price is back on its longer trend Kashagan production cuts - one ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln Strategy (February) 2019-02-13 |
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Midlincoln Strategy (February) Don’t Hope The Rally will Last Reasons to be constructive on Economic Nationalism Trades Few Examples of Economic Nationalism Trades Globalisation Trades Re-farming Trades Policy mistakes are expensive Money is the message But Dr ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln December Strategy 2018-12-20 |
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| Globalisation and trade are difficult ,Re-farming ,Regulations ,Money is the message ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
August Strategy 2018-08-15 |
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| August Strategy ,New Ideas ,New Platform ,New Strategy ,New Problems ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln July Strategy 2018-07-19 |
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| .... Oil price is holding up – but so it had been in 2008 right until the crash. WC was a source of optimism and entertainment for a while – and again highlighted the rise of Europe and especially Balkans – with a link to of Austro Hungary. But now that its over the reality wil ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln June Strategy 2018-06-07 |
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May 2018 Strategy 2018-05-07 |
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Zimbabwe, Greece the best markets in April. Turkey and Kazakhstan – the worst. Tunisia, Romania, Saudi Arabia – the best markets YTD. Turkey and Philippines are the worst. US, Ireland, Canada are the best bond markets YTD while Russia and Argentina are the worst. ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln April Strategy 2018-04-02 |
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| ARGENTINA: Argentina's IPO Outlook Turns From Frenzy to Fiasco AUSTRALIA: Australia stocks jump after payroll data boosts Wall Street AUSTRIA: The Allure Of The Austria ETF BAHRAIN: Market mover: Higher oil prices to swell Gulf equities' earnings growth BELGIUM: Belgium shares hi ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln March Strategy 2018-03-13 |
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What is in common between Kazakhstan and Botswana? They were among 12 markets that remained in the positive territory in February. Kazkhstan equities added 6.5% in February while Botswana +1.06%. The remaining 10 markets were TUNISIA 3.88, JORDAN 3.11, FINLAND 2.35, THAILAND 2.06, BAHRAIN ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Midlincoln February Strategy 2018-02-06 |
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Year started very strongly. Most of the markets were up in January except or Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Philippines and Egypt. US bonds higher yields have been signaling that some sort of effect for equities was on the cards, and the selloff in the beginning of February was not unexpected. Robo ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
MidLincoln Research 2018 Strategy 2018-01-02 |
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| Where it is all going? Election are among important drivers for markets 2018 will see election in Russia, Czech, Italy, Poland, Hungary, Mexico, Egypt, Sweden and the US... Geopolitics will be affecting asian stocks, saudi stocks and former Soviet Union countries stocks especially Russia in l ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
MidLincoln Research December Strategy 2017-12-13 |
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| Oil price miraculous come back left oil stocks unaffected, but the oil strength could signal that the economy is slow back to normal. China has successfully lived through the communist party congress up 42%. With a little pause for football, Russia is likely to continue expansion in the post ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
MidLincoln Research November Strategy 2017-11-10 |
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All regional stocks have been strong in October led by Asian stocks. Korean stocks are still the best in October, repeating September stellar performance. Short Pakistan long Vietnam trade on frontier market is still on. While stellar oil price performance has not helpe ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
October Strategy 2017-10-19 |
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| Strategy Markets have been doing great this year. But it is tough anyway. North Korea escalation is hanging above the markets as a sledge hammer, ready to fall anytime as a guillotine and cut the roots of the risk appetite. Similar effect, albeit much less bloody is the rate hike priced in for th ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Belated September Strategy 2017-09-22 |
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| (later this month due to technical issues) US stocks end lower as Wall Street weighs Fed's next move US Equities Are Destined For Negative Returns In The Next 7 Years ... Emerging Markets May Be Due for Their Comeback Fed and North Korea put emerging markets on track for weekly loss Hong Kong, ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Watching Gold today - wanted to highlight our August Strategy Again 2017-08-09 |
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| Emerging market stocks are up 21% ytd this year, Europe is up 14% and the US is up 8.5% while gold is up 9.6%. In the usual mode emerging and developed markets and gold have been anti correlated asset classes: gold was rising when appetite for risk was low while markets where stronger when the r ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
MidLincoln July Strategy - Globalisation Yields to Geography 2017-07-07 |
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| Markets have been a lot calmer in June. Asian frontier markets turned up winners in June. EFM ASIA +1.24%, EM (EMERGING MARKETS) +0.54%, USA +0.48% despite the rate hike. European markets tanked have lead the losers in June whatever may be the reason - euro strength or some profit taking in high ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Global Strategy May Review/June Preview 2017-06-05 |
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| (we reiterate our May strategy and send this report again) Investing Alongside New Empires Asian markets turned up winners in May despite China downgrade, followed by European stocks and Frontier stocks while LATAM markets shaken by Brazil conspiracy lagged. Oil priced managed to stay neutr ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Global Strategy April Review/May Preview 2017-05-08 |
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| US markets and Asian and emerging market stocks look a bit more vulnerable in May, as May selling likely to gather speed, given the seasonality and some ripe profits to take. But European markets look to receive some further boost from political stability. ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Monthly - April Strategy - March Review. 2017-04-11 |
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| Chart: Dollar (DXY) - Break Out is Likely And it will make sense Source: ML, Bloomberg Download file in Power Point Strategy Markets have been in divergence mode US stock markets tanked in March while emerging markets led by Asian markets have been able to deliver small positive perfor ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Monthly Global Strategy 2017-03-14 |
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| Monthly performance is between 2017-03-02 and 2017-01-27 Best global markets YTD EM LATIN AMERICA +8.40%, EM (EMERGING MARKETS) +6.27%, USA +4.62%, While worst global markets YTD EUROPE 2.16%, FM (FRONTIER MARKETS) 4.31%, USA 4.62%, Best global markets last month USA +3.75%, EFM ASIA +2. ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
MidLincoln Research CRABSTICKS Strategy July 2016 BRICKST+Canada+ Australia 2016-07-08 |
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| We are still positive on emerging markets asset class.Emerging markets should react positively to weaker yuan. While effects of Brexit are somewhat negative. India has been delivering lackluster performance for some time now, unable to capitalize on its growth, given that market rallied couple ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Monthly (Temp. free access) 2016-06-06 |
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| We think that the inerest will return to emerging markets and commodities assets classes after profit taking in May Turkey lost a lot of its out-performance since the beginning of the year on the back of profit taking and political turbulence. It is high beta and it looks fragile if profit on the ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Weekly 2016-05-09 |
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| Best last week among stock markets was Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 +3.86%, Jakarta Stock Exchange Composi +0.30%, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Ind-0.07%, Nikkei 225-0.25%, While worst last week among stock markets was Borsa Istanbul 100 Index -7.84%, Russian Depositary Index USD -6.02%, Russi ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Monthly Strategy 2016-05-06 |
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| Emerging markets are going through the spike in risk appetite mainly driven by strong performance of commodities exporters where many of them are bouncing off their trough levels. Importers such as China and India markets have been lagging. But even in China and India materials sectors have been am ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Weekly 2016-03-28 |
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| Best last week among stock markets was Nikkei 225 +1.85%, S&P BSE SENSEX Index +0.71%, Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican +0.36%, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Ind-0.29%, While worst last week among stock markets was Russian Depositary Index USD -3.94%, FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Inde -2.79%, Ib ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Weekly 2016-03-21 |
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| Comment Best last week among stock markets was Shanghai Stock Exchange Compos +4.72%, Borsa Istanbul 100 Index +4.54%, Russian Depositary Index USD +4.06%, FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Inde +4.03%, While worst last week among stock markets was Nikkei 225 -3.04%, S&P/TSX Composite Index ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Emerging Markets Monthly Strategy March (free temp. access granted) 2016-03-09 |
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| Emerging markets are going through the spike in risk appetite mainly driven by strong performance of commodities exporters where many of them are bouncing off their trough levels. Importers such as China and India markets have been lagging. But even in China and India materials sectors have been ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
MidLincoln Monthly (Temp Free Access) 2016-02-09 |
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| Overall emerging markets are suffering from flight to dollars. The triple surpluses that emerging markets had created i in the environment of higher commodities prices and lower rates are vanishing as sovereign reserves are spent on supporting local currencies, current accounts are suffering from co ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
ML Monthly GEM Strategy October 2015 2015-10-09 |
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| Emerging markets are under pressure while occasional flights from dollars create spikes of appetite for emerging market assets. Still the overall mood is not as upbeat as it used to be. It looks like developed nations pay attention to emerging market growth, while there is still lacking a co-ordinat ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Monthly Strategy August 2015 2015-08-10 |
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| We are quite surprised that the current slowdown in commodities prices is not yet accompanied by the notable slowdown in global growth. We guess that the world is pretty well balanced at this point and what's bad of energy exporter is good for an importer. Lower iron ore prices generate income f ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Reminder: MidLincoln July Strategy Monthly 2015-07-05 |
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| Reminder, July Strategy Monthly was out on weekend. Do not miss. The alpha and omega the beginning and the end. It may so happen that Greece which was the cradle of western civilisation and a mother of democracy may also become the graveyard for both. As its last confession - the referend ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
MidLincoln Monthly Strategy Reminder 2015-06-02 |
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| NB. -->Our flagship Monthly Strategy was out yesterday. Please do not miss. Some exerpts include: "China again looks pretty risky given more news of a slowdown. Liberalisation, that was supposed to increase investment into China, on the other hand initially caused some capital outflow from China ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
MidLincoln Emerging Markets Strategy Monthly Reminder 2015-05-08 |
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| Our flagship GEM strategy May document has been released from embargo for non premium clients after a month since its publication. Here it its for your consideration to join ML Premium and get the June document that will be released tomorrow.
This May may prove to be a test for global fin ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
MidLincoln March GEM Strategy 2015-03-10 |
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| Our Stance for March: GEM stocks are doing okay so far this year. Slightly behind developed markets. MSCI EM index is up 3.6 while MXWO is up 3.6% YTD. In march the divergence in performance between GEM and World has worsened. IS problems and Ukraine are 2 acute problems in politics that negat ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
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| Developed world is in the disglobalisation mode. Iraq and Afganistan wars, Libia and Syria chaos, IS, war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia and Iran and the most recent incident - Charlie are all the bricks of the disglobalisation. Globalisation that buoyed countries like China, Brazil and Russi ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
December GEM Strategy 2014-12-15 |
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| Our Stance We are publishing our third issue of GEM monthly series. Its a document which highlights tactical stance for key emerging markets into the year end, which is still positive for the countries like Turkey, India, China and South Korea. It is less positive for Brazil, Russia and South Afr ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
Monthly Strategy November 2014 2014-11-14 |
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| We are publishing the second issue of our emerging market strategy on the eve of the G20 meeting in Brisbane. Its been a sunset for the emerging markets in the past 5 years. It looks like GEMs ripped easy profits in the first 20 years following their market liberalisation. But they are now facing ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |
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| Emerging markets are in the correcting mode. The reasons could be many.. Chinese slowdown Dollar strength Expectations of US rates levels and negative implications for Emerging markets ISIS Ukraine Falling oil price Alibaba IPO It is difficult to say which one is the prime reason of the ... ... Only preview. This report requires privileged access rights to read it at the current time. |