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This chart comes from SocGena and India Business Insider
SocGen's swan chart is trying to show that
This chart comes from SocGena and India Business Insider
SocGen's swan chart is trying to show that there are more economic and geopolitical risks then rewards and that could could seriously rock the economy and the markets if these risks occur.
This time around, Europe is front and center for political risks. "As we head to press, the risk of a Greek default and possibly Grexit remains very real," according to SocGen. "Medium-term, our concern is that the UK referendum on EU membership (by end-2017) could see a Brexit."
Another risk is China hard landing, aka GDP growth falling below 5%, which could happen following a "miscalculation of how much financial risk management or structural reform the system can handle," according to SocGen.
On the positive end, there are two upside risks: higher-than-expected multipliers, which means investors will pay a higher premium for stocks despite lackluster earnings, and the possibility of fast track reform, especially in the euro area.
This chart comes from SocGena and India Business Insider
SocGen's swan chart is trying to show that there are more economic and geopolitical risks then rewards and that could could seriously rock the economy and the markets if these risks occur.
This time around, Europe is front and center for political risks. "As we head to press, the risk of a Greek default and possibly Grexit remains very real," according to SocGen. "Medium-term, our concern is that the UK referendum on EU membership (by end-2017) could see a Brexit."
Another risk is China hard landing, aka GDP growth falling below 5%, which could happen following a "miscalculation of how much financial risk management or structural reform the system can handle," according to SocGen.
On the positive end, there are two upside risks: higher-than-expected multipliers, which means investors will pay a higher premium for stocks despite lackluster earnings, and the possibility of fast track reform, especially in the euro area.
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