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Key Info

Ultrapar Participacoes SA Web - www.ultra.com.br

Tel - 55-11-3177-6513

Next Reporting Date - 15.05.2019

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Oil & Gas Storage & Transporta Sector Link to Midlincoln Rural Investment Banking Ideas

From Biogas into Energy Sector

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Rural Investment Banking Craft News

  • Food industry waste becomes profitable biogas
  • Multimedia: Biogas eases pressure on Maharashtra forests
  • Biogest develops highly efficient biomethane plants in Italy

    Ultrapar Participacoes

    Ene

    BRAZIL


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    5.92%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    5.33%

    Cost of Debt

    5.33%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    0.93

    Current Market Cap mln$

    5,962.33

    Net Debt mln$

    2,206.07

    WACC Estimate

    9.83%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    5.36

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    Revenue23051.4022338.4524822.4124973.4524153.6525022.1825927.4826886.0827895.8128925.2329992.6531099.4632247.1133437.1134671.02
    EBITDA Costs21843.5521122.8823726.7324226.7523133.9024115.9625139.5926223.5127365.2228542.8329771.1231052.2732388.5533782.3435236.10
    EBITDA1207.841215.571095.68746.701019.75906.22787.88662.58530.59382.40221.5347.18-141.44-345.23-565.07
    EBITDA Margin5.245.444.412.994.223.623.042.461.901.320.740.15-0.44-1.03-1.63
    Operating Costs22149.0521441.5723947.4624450.4723386.9224334.6425322.4726368.4627470.2428602.7929782.0331009.8832288.3633619.5535005.62
    Operating Profit902.35896.89874.95522.98766.73687.54605.01517.62425.57322.45210.6289.57-41.26-182.44-334.60
    Operating Margin3.914.013.522.093.172.752.331.931.531.110.700.29-0.13-0.55-0.97
    Pretax Costs22366.6621682.7324089.5824485.8023523.2124415.5525345.6626330.5427367.9428429.3829531.9930677.3631867.1533103.0934386.96
    PTP684.73655.72732.84487.65630.44606.63581.82555.54527.86495.85460.66422.10379.95334.02284.06
    Pretax Margin2.972.942.951.952.612.422.242.071.891.711.541.361.181.000.82
    Net Income Costs22593.2921887.4824329.1924599.7723713.3524590.8725505.5226474.0327494.2028536.2529617.7930740.3331905.4133114.6534369.72
    Net Income458.10450.97493.22373.68440.30431.32421.96412.05401.61388.98374.86359.13341.70322.46301.31
    Net Margin1.992.021.991.501.821.721.631.531.441.341.251.151.060.960.87
    Revenue Less Capex23296.2122631.6325230.3825297.8924484.5525385.4326324.4327318.7328366.0629435.4430545.1431696.6732891.6134131.6035418.34
    Capex-244.82-293.18-407.97-324.45-330.90-363.25-396.96-432.65-470.25-510.21-552.49-597.21-644.50-694.49-747.32
    Capex to Revenues-1.06-1.31-1.64-1.30-1.37-1.45-1.53-1.61-1.69-1.76-1.84-1.92-2.00-2.08-2.16
    Revenue less FCF22320.7021905.7124685.5524502.4323744.3524694.4125684.6826733.2727837.7828972.0930152.6331381.2732659.9833990.7835375.82
    FCF730.70432.74136.86471.02409.30327.77242.79152.8158.03-46.86-159.98-281.82-412.87-553.68-704.80
    FCF to Revenue3.171.940.551.891.691.310.940.570.21-0.16-0.53-0.91-1.28-1.66-2.03

    BRAZIL Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    PETR3 BZPetroleo Brasileiro SABRAZIL 96801.0010.188.065.254.521.052.4934.361.1512.51-4.68
    PETR4 BZPetroleo Brasileiro SABRAZIL 96801.009.237.315.254.521.053.5334.361.0412.51-3.19
    UGPA3 BZUltrapar Participacoes SABRAZIL 5962.3317.5314.808.397.420.253.393.992.4414.38-6.00
    CSAN3 BZCosan SA Industria e ComercioBRAZIL 4622.2412.0810.604.774.420.283.868.511.6113.1226.59

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    XOM USExxon Mobil CorpUNITED STATES 348045.8918.6314.818.146.761.194.1116.301.789.238.31
    RDSA LNRoyal Dutch Shell PLCNETHERLANDS 256581.4911.599.955.264.730.695.9915.991.2811.224.83
    RDSB LNRoyal Dutch Shell PLCNETHERLANDS 256581.4911.6510.015.264.730.695.9615.991.2811.223.65
    CVX USChevron CorpUNITED STATES 224568.5716.3613.335.934.981.354.0125.491.428.547.80
    857 HKPetroChina Co LtdCHINA 191947.9413.1811.914.964.750.544.4315.130.644.94-9.23
    BP/ LNBP PLCBRITAIN 146358.0213.2211.335.074.620.535.6613.561.4210.839.32
    FP FPTOTAL SAFRANCE 145267.4510.289.154.764.390.715.4917.271.1511.85-2.16
    RIGD LIReliance Industries LtdINDIA 126141.14#N/A Field Not Applicable17.4212.0310.07#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable14.80#N/A Field Not Applicable11.6340.64
    RIL INReliance Industries LtdINDIA 126071.6920.4017.3512.0310.911.33-14.802.0911.6339.22
    386 HKChina Petroleum & Chemical CorpCHINA 99743.109.498.953.723.600.237.527.150.858.69-6.48
    883 HKCNOOC LtdCHINA 82071.2710.179.614.093.872.444.7257.991.2612.477.54
    ENB CNEnbridge IncCANADA 76538.3920.1518.8013.7312.772.175.7827.361.557.6324.67
    COP USConocoPhillipsUNITED STATES 72397.4914.9713.825.535.061.921.9339.052.2414.41-6.16
    ROSN LIRosneft Oil Co PJSCRUSSIA 71134.976.345.203.993.770.566.9024.661.0215.47-2.61
    ROSN RMRosneft Oil Co PJSCRUSSIA 70807.386.315.183.983.770.566.9224.661.0115.47-2.95
    LKOH RMLUKOIL PJSCRUSSIA 64772.016.646.243.763.610.564.5214.850.9513.9118.56
    LKOD LILUKOIL PJSCRUSSIA 64725.006.646.243.753.610.564.5214.850.9513.9119.47
    ENI IMEni SpAITALY 62051.0312.0410.653.813.560.745.5924.541.058.87-0.96
    SLB USSchlumberger LtdUNITED STATES 59975.7927.6319.4311.019.491.794.6220.301.686.14-16.28
    NVTK LINovatek PJSCRUSSIA 59450.8712.3012.2213.9313.054.622.0534.003.3929.6920.57
    EOG USEOG Resources IncUNITED STATES 59212.3319.5715.377.826.573.420.8647.092.7214.32-3.78
    GAZP RMGazprom PJSCRUSSIA 58354.483.203.052.652.550.466.970.190.259.356.43
    OGZD LIGazprom PJSCRUSSIA 57881.743.173.022.642.530.467.030.190.259.355.45
    NVTK RMNovatek PJSCRUSSIA 56567.7011.7011.6313.2712.444.402.1634.003.2229.6918.29
    1088 HKChina Shenhua Energy Co LtdCHINA 55029.507.037.083.943.981.545.5539.050.8412.44-3.69
    SU CNSuncor Energy IncCANADA 52516.0014.3112.506.185.871.793.7035.161.589.88-0.53
    OXY USOccidental Petroleum CorpUNITED STATES 46248.7516.6516.076.416.112.895.0652.262.2212.54-6.72
    KMI USKinder Morgan Inc/DEUNITED STATES 45206.9419.7318.4110.5510.143.014.9851.441.336.4423.16
    PTT TBPTT PCLTHAILAND 43997.3610.9110.605.535.390.624.1715.551.4513.138.26
    TRP CNTransCanada CorpCANADA 43908.9016.4516.4012.3311.774.084.6564.122.0713.3928.36