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Key Info

SPAR Group Ltd/The Web - www.spar.co.za

Tel - 27-31-719-1900

Next Reporting Date - 15.05.2019

Select Equity Data Snapshot

Food Distributors Sector Link to Midlincoln Rural Investment Banking Ideas

From Food into Consumer Staples Sector

Verical Aand Food Production


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    SPAR Group Ltd/The

    Food & Staples Retailing

    SOUTH AFRICA


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    4.55%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    5.44%

    Cost of Debt

    5.44%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    0.81

    Current Market Cap mln$

    2,586.55

    Net Debt mln$

    195.18

    WACC Estimate

    9.13%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    13.42

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    Revenue6118.116158.237135.567769.647896.158276.268638.569040.709435.679857.1810297.5110757.5211238.0811740.1112264.56
    EBITDA Costs5898.765947.136893.617502.187627.067995.398346.468736.149118.869527.409954.2510400.2110866.1611352.9911861.63
    EBITDA219.35211.10241.94267.46269.09280.87292.10304.57316.81329.78343.27357.31371.92387.12402.93
    EBITDA Margin3.593.433.393.443.413.393.383.373.363.353.333.323.313.303.29
    Operating Costs5926.455983.216942.827555.887684.318058.018414.218809.589197.899612.6310046.0610499.0410972.4411467.1911984.25
    Operating Profit191.66175.01192.74213.77211.84218.24224.35231.12237.78244.55251.45258.48265.64272.91280.31
    Operating Margin3.132.842.702.752.682.642.602.562.522.482.442.402.362.322.29
    Pretax Costs5954.585992.596951.107580.127702.628076.608433.068828.739217.339632.3210066.0010519.2010992.8011487.7312004.94
    PTP163.54165.63184.45189.52193.53199.65205.49211.97218.34224.85231.52238.33245.28252.38259.62
    Pretax Margin2.672.692.592.442.452.412.382.342.312.282.252.222.182.152.12
    Net Income Costs5997.336033.766998.337626.617750.568125.758483.378880.339270.199686.4410121.3710575.8411050.7111546.9012065.37
    Net Income120.79124.46137.23143.03145.59150.50155.18160.38165.48170.74176.14181.69187.38193.21199.19
    Net Margin1.972.021.921.841.841.821.801.771.751.731.711.691.671.651.62
    Revenue Less Capex6162.706213.537217.177829.047967.908351.998718.089124.449523.539949.5010394.5110859.4411345.1611852.6012382.74
    Capex-44.59-55.31-81.62-59.40-71.75-75.73-79.52-83.73-87.86-92.32-97.00-101.91-107.07-112.49-118.18
    Capex to Revenues-0.73-0.90-1.14-0.76-0.91-0.92-0.92-0.93-0.93-0.94-0.94-0.95-0.95-0.96-0.96
    Revenue less FCF5972.226030.207017.947572.647719.618089.568442.188833.589217.999628.1010056.4510503.8610971.1711459.2811969.10
    FCF145.89128.03117.61197.00176.54186.70196.38207.12217.68229.08241.07253.67266.91280.83295.46
    FCF to Revenue2.382.081.652.542.242.262.272.292.312.322.342.362.382.392.41

    SOUTH AFRICA Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    SHP SJShoprite Holdings LtdSOUTH AFRICA 7173.6320.7518.1811.189.910.692.386.493.3416.62-2.19
    SPP SJSPAR Group Ltd/TheSOUTH AFRICA 2586.5517.1415.4510.439.610.354.043.574.8929.0817.20
    PIK SJPick n Pay Stores LtdSOUTH AFRICA 2365.6320.1918.8710.219.770.433.343.827.6139.553.65
    MSM SJMassmart Holdings LtdSOUTH AFRICA 1372.2116.6513.826.325.790.212.793.562.5717.881.51

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountry Market Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    WMT USWal-Mart Stores IncUNITED STATES 296804.7419.5221.7310.0910.800.642.176.343.808.875.77
    COST USCostco Wholesale CorpUNITED STATES 108034.5930.7728.8616.8715.840.710.954.197.2724.9613.14
    CVS USCVS Health CorpUNITED STATES 69114.117.797.277.867.470.283.716.901.0614.41-22.77
    WBA USWalgreens Boots Alliance IncUNITED STATES 48165.278.698.477.707.650.353.426.272.0720.48-30.10
    SYY USSysco CorpUNITED STATES 35618.9020.2818.4012.5211.670.592.175.7714.5266.850.60
    TSCO LNTesco PLCBRITAIN 31647.5616.3214.577.287.270.292.595.521.4710.4318.33
    3382 JPSeven & i Holdings Co LtdJAPAN 30589.1021.3215.266.515.200.821.9411.911.728.20-18.14
    WOW AUWoolworths LtdAUSTRALIA 29640.0724.3622.8211.2810.950.713.086.523.9516.2018.80
    WES AUWesfarmers LtdAUSTRALIA 28699.5019.0319.8811.2611.781.287.2311.524.1614.1418.41
    CPALL TBCP ALL PCLTHAILAND 21563.6029.7726.0518.0416.371.241.688.227.2724.5324.54
    KR USKroger Co/TheUNITED STATES 20572.8913.0011.687.316.560.211.894.192.8441.52-5.68
    L CNLoblaw Cos LtdCANADA 17870.7614.9213.648.268.000.501.908.131.9813.2623.21
    8267 JPAeon Co LtdJAPAN 16018.6883.4651.088.437.970.211.456.371.802.10-18.72
    CA FPCarrefour SAFRANCE 15186.5414.9313.225.465.070.182.944.641.388.951.44
    WN CNGeorge Weston LtdCANADA 11402.0514.5213.488.317.970.311.989.051.9913.358.19
    COLR BBColruyt SABELGIUM 10288.0623.8223.4811.9211.720.991.898.154.1217.5024.94
    2912 TTPresident Chain Store CorpTAIWAN 9547.3827.1825.2612.9712.161.153.157.977.7928.34-17.06
    MRU CNMetro IncCANADA 9313.2017.1015.4211.2810.620.751.618.012.0813.2116.41
    6808 HKSun Art Retail Group LtdHONG KONG 8366.6721.4019.766.285.870.551.986.882.2610.66-23.18
    FIVE LIX5 Retail Group NVRUSSIA 7900.0514.4912.428.587.740.295.567.502.9920.6624.81
    MGNT LIMagnit PJSCRUSSIA 7131.2513.5911.955.675.030.334.707.632.0013.6120.05
    PCAR4 BZCia Brasileira de DistribuicaoBRAZIL 6622.7321.9518.559.528.280.471.325.732.4111.0018.41
    SBRY LNJ Sainsbury PLCBRITAIN 6217.8310.7110.453.583.550.174.814.960.655.97-27.24
    MGNT RMMagnit PJSCRUSSIA 5669.4810.879.564.774.230.275.887.631.6013.619.87
    RADL3 BZRaia Drogasil SABRAZIL 5660.4041.1832.5717.9514.491.331.077.595.9015.13-3.94
    CENCOSUD CICencosud SACHILE 5378.3017.8720.6910.709.410.341.995.890.814.48-13.36
    CO FPCasino Guichard Perrachon SAFRANCE 4379.1111.9010.188.067.480.108.705.190.565.33-6.53
    BIMAS TIBIM Birlesik Magazalar ASTURKEY 4153.5517.6214.2911.079.120.613.385.286.1537.03-3.34
    139480 KSE-MART IncSOUTH KOREA 4105.1711.3010.348.217.860.251.125.710.544.98-12.19
    EXITO CBAlmacenes Exito SACOLOMBIA 2024.0013.579.977.036.330.112.515.170.976.374.05