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Oil & Gas Storage & Transporta Sector Link to Midlincoln Rural Investment Banking Ideas

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    Spectra Energy Corp

    Energy

    UNITED STATES


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    2.00%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    6.25%

    Cost of Debt

    6.25%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    1.02

    Current Market Cap mln$

    10,834.97

    Net Debt mln$

    62.81

    WACC Estimate

    8.11%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    24.35

    DCF Model

    < d style="font-size: 10px">-961.24
    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    Revenue292.12345.67414.19826.97985.341170.151354.911533.311715.531949.082214.422515.882858.383247.513689.61
    EBITDA Costs345.92511.51875.621737.012164.862629.873094.763543.654002.154604.095296.556093.177009.608063.879276.70
    EBITDA-53.80-165.84-461.43-910.04-1179.52-1459.72-1739.85-2010.34-2286.62-2655.01-3082.14-3577.30-4151.23-4816.36-5587.09
    EBITDA Margin-18.42-47.97-111.41-110.05-119.71-124.75-128.41-131.11-133.29-136.22-139.19-142.19-145.23-148.31-151.43
    Operating Costs375.18551.06916.551815.742257.682739.073220.343685.044159.704782.015497.426319.867265.348352.269601.80
    Operating Profit-83.06-205.39-502.36-988.77-1272.34-1568.92-1865.43-2151.73-2444.17-2832.93-3283.00-3803.98-4406.96-5104.76-5912.19
    Operating Margin-28.43-59.42-121.29-119.57-129.13-134.08-137.68-140.33-142.47-145.35-148.26-151.20-154.18-157.19-160.24
    Pretax Costs379.58542.56962.701780.852216.652682.693148.613598.504058.024658.965348.896140.997050.398094.469293.15
    PTP-87.46-196.89-548.51-953.88-1231.31-1512.54-1793.71-2065.19-2342.49-2709.89-3134.48-3625.12-4192.01-4846.96-5603.54
    Pretax Margin-29.94-56.96-132.43-115.35-124.96-129.26-132.39-134.69-136.55-139.03-141.55-144.09-146.66-149.25-151.87
    Net Income Costs292.12345.67974.681788.212272.092781.743291.283783.274285.804950.785718.956606.317631.358815.4410183.25
    Net Income0.000.00-560.49-1286.75-1611.60-1936.37-2249.96-2570.27-3001.71-3504.54-4090.43-4772.97-5567.93-6493.64
    Net Margin0.000.00-135.32-116.24-130.59-137.73-142.92-146.74-149.82-154.01-158.26-162.58-166.98-171.45-176.00
    Revenue Less Capex370.05382.58504.981073.951286.481538.671790.792034.242282.902604.062970.403388.273864.944408.665028.87
    Capex-77.92-36.91-90.79-246.98-301.14-368.52-435.89-500.93-567.37-654.98-755.98-872.40-1006.56-1161.15-1339.26
    Capex to Revenues-26.67-10.68-21.92-29.87-30.56-31.49-32.17-32.67-33.07-33.60-34.14-34.68-35.21-35.76-36.30
    Revenue less FCF395.14497.31839.211569.171934.142331.612728.993112.683504.604015.034599.805269.746037.266916.567923.93
    FCF-103.02-151.64-425.02-742.20-948.80-1161.47-1374.08-1579.38-1789.07-2065.95-2385.38-2753.87-3178.88-3669.06-4234.32
    FCF to Revenue-35.27-43.87-102.61-89.75-96.29-99.26-101.42-103.00-104.29-106.00-107.72-109.46-111.21-112.98-114.76

    UNITED STATES Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    XOM USExxon Mobil CorpUNITED STATES 348045.8918.6314.818.146.761.194.1116.301.789.238.31
    CVX USChevron CorpUNITED STATES 224568.5716.3613.335.934.981.354.0125.491.428.547.80
    COP USConocoPhillipsUNITED STATES 72397.4914.9713.825.535.061.921.9339.052.2414.41-6.16
    SLB USSchlumberger LtdUNITED STATES 59975.7927.6319.4311.019.491.794.6220.301.686.14-16.28
    EOG USEOG Resources IncUNITED STATES 59212.3319.5715.377.826.573.420.8647.092.7214.32-3.78
    OXY USOccidental Petroleum CorpUNITED STATES 46248.7516.6516.076.416.112.895.0652.262.2212.54-6.72
    KMI USKinder Morgan Inc/DEUNITED STATES 45206.9419.7318.4110.5510.143.014.9851.441.336.4423.16
    PSX USPhillips 66UNITED STATES 43263.4312.428.597.616.110.423.616.951.6213.76-2.66
    MPC USMarathon Petroleum CorpUNITED STATES 40796.2910.946.746.835.420.323.608.911.6915.24-10.54
    VLO USValero Energy CorpUNITED STATES 37931.8213.558.177.345.340.353.965.731.7712.888.09
    APC USAnadarko Petroleum CorpUNITED STATES 36024.2230.4524.836.756.002.721.5059.943.1516.7823.52
    WMB USWilliams Cos Inc/TheUNITED STATES 34498.1328.3825.4711.5410.873.795.3555.402.429.7520.41
    OKE USONEOK IncUNITED STATES 28792.9323.5818.8614.5812.112.355.1421.384.5018.8513.18
    PXD USPioneer Natural Resources CoUNITED STATES 28307.3821.3116.888.146.834.180.2853.212.1611.1712.50
    HAL USHalliburton CoUNITED STATES 25502.1720.8913.669.187.521.062.4215.992.5512.37-15.85
    CXO USConcho Resources IncUNITED STATES 24274.1828.2117.748.626.775.020.4168.601.244.67-10.38
    HES USHess CorpUNITED STATES 19448.74-36.869.737.503.211.6044.132.020.5111.46
    CLR USContinental Resources Inc/OKUNITED STATES 18422.5219.1614.806.835.713.870.0074.402.5114.66-8.67
    LNG USCheniere Energy IncUNITED STATES 16709.7827.9517.1215.0511.481.900.1635.2076.385495.789.31
    MRO USMarathon Oil CorpUNITED STATES 14698.7726.8020.705.324.852.591.1261.931.195.01-3.48
    DVN USDevon Energy CorpUNITED STATES 13927.6018.6912.735.415.181.621.0237.431.669.624.17
    NBL USNoble Energy IncUNITED STATES 13177.67185.3728.307.195.392.911.6361.971.292.437.21
    APA USApache CorpUNITED STATES 12803.3932.0121.374.914.451.852.9464.511.713.77-7.56
    COG USCabot Oil & Gas CorpUNITED STATES 11011.7813.2313.767.787.664.661.0966.544.2533.5314.11
    SE USSpectra Energy CorpUNITED STATES 10834.97----5.190.00-21.64--280.6092.95
    NOV USNational Oilwell Varco IncUNITED STATES 10204.04979.2640.3015.2011.131.210.769.550.780.07-26.07
    HFC USHollyFrontier CorpUNITED STATES 8451.1810.528.096.135.190.532.7210.541.4014.54-19.23
    XEC USCimarex Energy CoUNITED STATES 7065.9610.158.044.523.752.681.0965.111.8818.45-14.58
    HP USHelmerich & Payne IncUNITED STATES 6721.8637.8826.378.357.342.334.6328.821.584.270.42
    EQT USEQT CorpUNITED STATES 5146.5313.4927.884.414.771.210.6054.070.463.1614.17

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountry Market Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    RDSA LNRoyal Dutch Shell PLCNETHERLANDS 256581.4911.599.955.264.730.695.9915.991.2811.224.83
    RDSB LNRoyal Dutch Shell PLCNETHERLANDS 256581.4911.6510.015.264.730.695.9615.991.2811.223.65
    857 HKPetroChina Co LtdCHINA 191947.9413.1811.914.964.750.544.4315.130.644.94-9.23
    BP/ LNBP PLCBRITAIN 146358.0213.2211.335.074.620.535.6613.561.4210.839.32
    FP FPTOTAL SAFRANCE 145267.4510.289.154.764.390.715.4917.271.1511.85-2.16
    RIGD LIReliance Industries LtdINDIA 126141.14#N/A Field Not Applicable17.4212.0310.07#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable14.80#N/A Field Not Applicable11.6340.64
    RIL INReliance Industries LtdINDIA 126071.6920.4017.3512.0310.911.33-14.802.0911.6339.22
    386 HKChina Petroleum & Chemical CorpCHINA 99743.109.498.953.723.600.237.527.150.858.69-6.48
    PETR3 BZPetroleo Brasileiro SABRAZIL 96801.0010.188.065.254.521.052.4934.361.1512.51-4.68
    PETR4 BZPetroleo Brasileiro SABRAZIL 96801.009.237.315.254.521.053.5334.361.0412.51-3.19
    883 HKCNOOC LtdCHINA 82071.2710.179.614.093.872.444.7257.991.2612.477.54
    ENB CNEnbridge IncCANADA 76538.3920.1518.8013.7312.772.175.7827.361.557.6324.67
    ROSN LIRosneft Oil Co PJSCRUSSIA 71134.976.345.203.993.770.566.9024.661.0215.47-2.61
    ROSN RMRosneft Oil Co PJSCRUSSIA 70807.386.315.183.983.770.566.9224.661.0115.47-2.95
    LKOH RMLUKOIL PJSCRUSSIA 64772.016.646.243.763.610.564.5214.850.9513.9118.56
    LKOD LILUKOIL PJSCRUSSIA 64725.006.646.243.753.610.564.5214.850.9513.9119.47
    ENI IMEni SpAITALY 62051.0312.0410.653.813.560.745.5924.541.058.87-0.96
    NVTK LINovatek PJSCRUSSIA 59450.8712.3012.2213.9313.054.622.0534.003.3929.6920.57
    GAZP RMGazprom PJSCRUSSIA 58354.483.203.052.652.550.466.970.190.259.356.43
    OGZD LIGazprom PJSCRUSSIA 57881.743.173.022.642.530.467.030.190.259.355.45
    NVTK RMNovatek PJSCRUSSIA 56567.7011.7011.6313.2712.444.402.1634.003.2229.6918.29
    1088 HKChina Shenhua Energy Co LtdCHINA 55029.507.037.083.943.981.545.5539.050.8412.44-3.69
    SU CNSuncor Energy IncCANADA 52516.0014.3112.506.185.871.793.7035.161.589.88-0.53
    PTT TBPTT PCLTHAILAND 43997.3610.9110.605.535.390.624.1715.551.4513.138.26
    TRP CNTransCanada CorpCANADA 43908.9016.4516.4012.3311.774.084.6564.122.0713.3928.36
    ECOPETL CBEcopetrol SACOLOMBIA 39212.1911.139.275.284.891.875.2944.902.1119.10-13.37
    CNQ CNCanadian Natural Resources LtdCANADA 36279.8513.9913.536.486.402.353.6651.161.458.679.02
    6505 TTFormosa Petrochemical CorpTAIWAN 35423.9419.1217.1612.6211.531.594.0911.803.0416.85-2.76
    ONGC INOil & Natural Gas Corp LtdINDIA 30252.246.656.774.024.160.515.2219.370.9515.1820.71
    ATAD LITatneft PJSCRUSSIA 27514.077.597.385.885.451.858.2232.762.1720.507.22