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Key Info

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA Web - www.grupoaval.com/

Tel - 57-1-241-9700

Next Reporting Date - 15.05.2019

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    Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA

    Banks

    COLOMBIA


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    4.16%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.38%

    Cost of Debt

    4.38%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    0.85

    Current Market Cap mln$

    8,939.20

    Net Debt mln$

    8,543.46

    WACC Estimate

    6.88%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    0.40

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    Revenue7693.538511.519028.499602.4610043.4610377.9210798.1611305.7211907.8912466.6113051.5513663.9314305.0414976.2415678.92
    EBITDA Costs3455.703600.334186.224488.184696.044887.385127.795418.165762.666088.056431.836795.017178.707584.058012.30
    EBITDA4237.834911.184842.275114.285347.425490.545670.375887.566145.236378.566619.726868.927126.347392.187666.63
    EBITDA Margin55.0857.7053.6353.2653.2452.9152.5152.0851.6151.1750.7250.2749.8249.3648.90
    Operating Costs5856.586624.227279.747207.977765.068021.448343.588732.649194.249622.2210070.1310538.8911029.4811542.8912080.21
    Operating Profit1836.951887.281748.752394.492278.402356.482454.592573.082713.652844.392981.413125.033275.573433.343598.71
    Operating Margin23.8822.1719.3724.9422.6922.7122.7322.7622.7922.8222.8422.8722.9022.9322.95
    Pretax Costs5771.846557.737221.477116.737689.237945.458267.388656.209117.519545.559993.6810462.8510954.0511468.3112006.71
    PTP1921.691953.781807.022485.732354.232432.472530.782649.512790.382921.063057.873201.073350.993507.933672.21
    Pretax Margin24.9822.9520.0125.8923.4423.4423.4423.4423.4323.4323.4323.4323.4323.4223.42
    Net Income Costs6462.947808.889028.499602.4610500.3911070.4911786.8312652.0013678.4514678.0515750.7116901.7618136.9319462.3620884.65
    Net Income1230.59702.630.000.00- 56.93-692.58-988.67-1346.28-1770.56-2211.44-2699.17-3237.84-3831.89-4486.12-5205.73
    Net Margin16.008.260.000.00-4.55-6.67-9.16-11.91-14.87-17.74-20.68-23.70-26.79-29.95-33.20
    Revenue Less Capex8032.098775.579189.559602.4610001.0910277.0810623.8611042.6811539.5811994.1112466.5312957.5613467.9413998.4114549.78
    Capex-338.55-264.07-161.060.0042.37100.84174.30263.04368.31472.50585.02706.36837.10977.821129.14
    Capex to Revenues-4.40-3.10-1.780.000.420.971.612.333.093.794.485.175.856.537.20
    Revenue less FCF3056.937705.836383.839602.4610745.8011762.9813041.0814584.7216416.1118345.5020501.6622911.2325603.9928613.2431976.16
    FCF4636.60805.672644.660.00-702.34-1385.06-2242.92-3279.00-4508.22-5878.89-7450.11-9247.30-11298.95-13637.00-16297.24
    FCF to Revenue60.279.4729.290.00-6.99-13.35-20.77-29.00-37.86-47.16-57.08-67.68-78.99-91.06-103.94

    COLOMBIA Comparables

    tickercompanycountry Market Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    BCOLO CBBancolombia SACOLOMBIA 12430.8912.8810.76--2.562.5841.911.4812.2739.63
    PFBCOLO CBBancolombia SACOLOMBIA 12430.8913.2711.10--2.562.4941.911.5312.2743.11
    PFAVAL CBGrupo Aval Acciones y Valores SACOLOMBIA 8939.2010.088.936.625.701.444.4142.631.5315.9020.56
    PFDAVVND CBBanco Davivienda SACOLOMBIA 5589.2311.329.61--2.252.37#????!1.4414.0229.77

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    JPM USJPMorgan Chase & CoUNITED STATES 368989.9511.4310.72--3.222.98#????!1.5313.8611.60
    1398 HKIndustrial & Commercial Bank of China LtdCHINA 293494.155.725.36--2.525.28#????!0.7213.1711.52
    BAC USBank of America CorpUNITED STATES 289939.5210.529.56--3.132.28#????!1.1311.2615.22
    939 HKChina Construction Bank CorpCHINA 222114.195.525.21--2.225.46#????!0.7113.4111.92
    WFC USWells Fargo & CoUNITED STATES 214360.3710.139.12--2.553.89#????!1.1912.02-5.69
    1288 HKAgricultural Bank of China LtdCHINA 190412.315.044.71--2.016.02#????!0.6112.695.50
    HSBA LNHSBC Holdings PLCBRITAIN 173497.5911.9111.48--3.105.96#????!1.038.2813.20
    C USCitigroup IncUNITED STATES 160861.979.087.9715.3114.602.162.8533.490.859.588.53
    3988 HKBank of China LtdCHINA 160539.175.124.88--2.006.06#????!0.5711.4514.34
    3968 HKChina Merchants Bank Co LtdCHINA 127934.849.358.32--3.203.22#????!1.4616.3231.22
    RY CNRoyal Bank of CanadaCANADA 112095.9411.6510.93--3.323.86#????!2.0017.0210.28
    TD CNToronto-Dominion Bank/TheCANADA 101959.1711.0510.17--3.493.86#????!1.7015.822.67
    CBA AUCommonwealth Bank of AustraliaAUSTRALIA 93935.9614.4314.11--5.375.72#????!1.9414.2318.29
    HDFCB INHDFC Bank LtdINDIA 88702.8327.8422.69--4.80--4.1116.9721.48
    USB USUS BancorpUNITED STATES 82892.1612.0511.37--3.603.04#????!1.7114.323.45
    SAN SMBanco Santander SASPAIN 80903.488.638.18--1.455.07#????!0.738.2010.52
    ITUB4 BZItau Unibanco Holding SABRAZIL 77867.0611.5010.51--2.665.89#????!2.3520.700.74
    SBER LISberbank of Russia PJSCRUSSIA 76417.805.544.89--2.348.66#????!1.1522.2027.44
    SBER RMSberbank of Russia PJSCRUSSIA 74585.595.414.77--2.298.87#????!1.1222.2025.72
    BBDC3 BZBanco Bradesco SABRAZIL 68177.839.548.69--2.53-#????!1.7919.4918.76
    BBDC4 BZBanco Bradesco SABRAZIL 68177.8311.1010.11--2.533.57#????!2.0819.4920.45
    WBC AUWestpac Banking CorpAUSTRALIA 67260.5312.8011.95--4.396.80#????!1.4611.7111.42
    8306 JPMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group IncJAPAN 67208.327.407.50--1.984.00#????!0.446.17-14.01
    BNS CNBank of Nova Scotia/TheCANADA 66214.6010.079.36--2.904.79#????!1.3714.003.51
    3328 HKBank of Communications Co LtdCHINA 65691.415.635.32--1.895.46#????!0.6010.9517.21
    BNP FPBNP Paribas SAFRANCE 65049.108.057.45--1.366.44#????!0.607.62-2.49
    PNC USPNC Financial Services Group Inc/TheUNITED STATES 60676.4811.8111.04--3.433.06#????!1.2211.2614.08
    LLOY LNLloyds Banking Group PLCBRITAIN 57271.158.037.93--2.395.11#????!0.9812.8514.49
    ANZ AUAustralia & New Zealand Banking Group LtdAUSTRALIA 54596.4811.8011.47--4.125.90#????!1.2911.3613.85
    NAB AUNational Australia Bank LtdAUSTRALIA 50754.6711.6410.94--4.086.89#????!1.3412.008.94