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Key Info

Noble Group Ltd Web - www.thisisnoble.com

Tel - 852-2861-3511

Next Reporting Date - 15.05.2019

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    Noble Group Ltd

    Capital Goods

    HONG KONG


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    2.00%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.28%

    Cost of Debt

    4.28%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    Current Market Cap mln$

    Net Debt mln$

    0.00

    WACC Estimate

    0.00%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    DCF Model

    DCF20142015201620172018F2019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F
    Revenue85816.0966712.408666.506433.79-49000.34-92421.00-128562.57-164695.22-199584.16-258391.25-334525.73-433093.09-560703.14-725913.23-939802.16
    EBITDA Costs85048.6567850.818300.9010059.52-45833.61-88175.32-123418.81-158653.61-192675.61-250454.50-325559.92-423187.70-550091.75-715051.35-929478.46
    EBITDA767.44-1138.41365.60-3625.73-3166.72-4245.68-5143.75-6041.61-6908.56-7936.75-8965.81-9905.40-10611.38-10861.88-10323.70
    EBITDA Margin0.89-1.714.22-56.356.464.594.003.673.463.072.682.291.891.501.10
    Operating Costs85179.4667968.198423.2910161.37-45733.55-88083.88-123334.54-158576.52-192605.44-250420.91-325591.18-423325.74-550397.84-715613.90-930423.80
    Operating Profit636.63-1255.79243.21-3727.59-3266.79-4337.12-5228.02-6118.70-6978.73-7970.34-8934.55-9767.35-10305.29-10299.33-9378.35
    Operating Margin0.74-1.882.81-57.946.674.694.073.723.503.082.672.261.841.421.00
    Pretax Costs85538.4368426.028646.0210348.97-45668.74-88134.64-123481.51-158819.65-192941.44-250957.84-326419.45-424571.93-552238.32-718293.26-934279.99
    PTP277.66-1713.6220.48-3915.18-3331.60-4286.36-5081.06-5875.57-6642.73-7433.41-8106.29-8521.16-8464.82-7619.97-5522.17
    Pretax Margin0.32-2.570.24-60.856.804.643.953.573.332.882.421.971.511.050.59
    Net Income Costs85246.0666468.408681.857034.89-48069.34-91021.73-126773.53-162516.51-197029.20-255290.13-330778.64-428588.88-555321.30-719528.10-932290.36
    Net Income570.03244.00-15.35-601.10-930.99-1399.26-1789.03-2178.70-2554.96-3101.12-3747.09-4504.22-5381.84-6385.13-7511.79
    Net Margin0.660.37-0.18-9.341.901.511.391.321.281.201.121.040.960.880.80
    Revenue Less Capex86241.0266799.598780.736502.81-49096.55-92646.20-128895.13-165135.12-200127.70-259120.24-335502.28-434399.78-562449.75-728245.58-942913.79
    Capex-424.93-87.19-114.22-69.0296.21225.20332.56439.90543.54728.99976.541306.691746.622332.353111.63
    Capex to Revenues-0.50-0.13-1.32-1.07-0.20-0.24-0.26-0.27-0.27-0.28-0.29-0.30-0.31-0.32-0.33
    Revenue less FCF87633.4467265.269577.586733.70-49079.37-92965.40-129494.33-166014.24-201277.12-260812.10-337956.71-437919.63-567450.19-735294.10-952783.92
    FCF-1817.35-552.85-911.07-299.9179.03544.40931.761319.021692.952420.853430.984826.546747.069380.8812981.76
    FCF to Revenue-2.12-0.83-10.51-4.66-0.16-0.59-0.72-0.80-0.85-0.94-1.03-1.11-1.20-1.29-1.38

    HONG KONG Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    267 HKCITIC LtdHONG KONG 42645.646.345.9614.2713.790.653.6326.220.569.370.28
    392 HKBeijing Enterprises Holdings LtdHONG KONG 6757.036.315.7211.4111.080.762.8913.250.6710.974.15
    3311 HKChina State Construction International Holdings LtdHONG KONG 5200.677.116.007.886.640.644.2813.740.9214.0841.17
    363 HKShanghai Industrial Holdings LtdHONG KONG 2533.495.685.376.366.030.625.6336.09-8.1410.98
    750 HKChina Singyes Solar Technologies Holdings LtdHONG KONG 105.261.891.73--0.122.350.200.147.71-53.98
    N21 LINoble Group LtdHONG KONG ------0.01-7.03#N/A N/A

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    BA USBoeing Co/TheUNITED STATES 215374.9324.0816.8315.2111.922.102.1114.33182.111078.587.58
    HON USHoneywell International IncUNITED STATES 124128.7921.0819.2714.7213.753.351.9523.756.4834.6321.84
    UTX USUnited Technologies CorpUNITED STATES 120493.6917.6016.0011.9911.101.562.1317.682.8916.7114.71
    MMM US3M CoUNITED STATES 109835.0118.9217.4113.3412.543.352.9728.0811.1358.454.56
    AIR FPAirbus SEFRANCE 104886.0220.5817.018.787.551.351.7113.056.8537.5325.07
    SIE GRSiemens AGGERMANY 99599.1115.1713.1810.029.201.043.6312.521.8111.566.87
    LMT USLockheed Martin CorpUNITED STATES 92918.5416.3413.5211.3110.031.612.7216.2825.25236.619.37
    GE USGeneral Electric CoUNITED STATES 79431.9016.6113.8211.8810.950.680.4410.722.3612.15-15.84
    CAT USCaterpillar IncUNITED STATES 78348.6310.9910.446.566.441.392.7221.483.8943.7419.78
    SAF FPSafran SAFRANCE 62480.4822.5419.4313.8412.422.431.7318.814.3019.8114.60
    DG FPVinci SAFRANCE 59315.0315.2914.029.238.671.163.2616.482.4916.1715.90
    DE USDeere & CoUNITED STATES 51535.4314.4712.7810.609.731.451.9214.613.9528.9822.89
    GD USGeneral Dynamics CorpUNITED STATES 51095.6815.0913.6012.1311.321.322.2513.943.8527.555.34
    RTN USRaytheon CoUNITED STATES 49640.7215.2913.5110.229.481.722.0918.203.9227.161.37
    ITW USIllinois Tool Works IncUNITED STATES 49433.3519.0817.9613.4213.013.362.6528.0716.1879.7323.68
    SU FPSchneider Electric SEFRANCE 48925.5915.6814.6710.8310.271.633.2617.271.9412.7320.62
    NOC USNorthrop Grumman CorpUNITED STATES 47406.3714.5812.5912.7011.551.391.8714.384.7535.934.37
    EMR USEmerson Electric CoUNITED STATES 43810.1019.3017.4111.9111.042.312.7621.514.9725.739.16
    8058 JPMitsubishi CorpJAPAN 43452.347.596.8711.7911.360.304.114.980.8311.63-1.15
    6594 JPNidec CorpJAPAN 42083.3037.3230.3821.6316.913.260.7513.024.1411.4815.65
    6954 JPFANUC CorpJAPAN 37908.6723.7437.1615.0021.147.195.3131.942.5510.6320.10
    PHIA NAKoninklijke Philips NVNETHERLANDS 37318.5219.7817.0210.919.881.762.3617.292.6713.0210.56
    ATCOA SSAtlas Copco ABSWEDEN 37033.8122.5621.5214.2413.753.592.3325.567.0333.4236.41
    ATCOB SSAtlas Copco ABSWEDEN 37033.8120.6919.7414.2413.753.595.5725.566.4533.4234.87
    6367 JPDaikin Industries LtdJAPAN 36957.0522.1420.0512.0811.201.671.0414.272.8913.7812.36
    ROP USRoper Technologies IncUNITED STATES 35967.4427.5426.2921.7220.276.660.5434.404.1414.2222.02
    ETN USEaton Corp PLCUNITED STATES 35549.9114.2913.4610.3710.011.593.4218.422.1014.8018.46
    1766 HKCRRC Corp LtdCHINA 35132.6112.0510.398.777.860.953.3010.831.2310.911.85
    VOLVB SSVolvo ABSWEDEN 34166.4410.0811.607.328.080.804.4814.552.2824.2219.06
    JCI USJohnson Controls International plcUNITED STATES 33450.9420.2014.5014.0013.311.392.9613.791.469.4918.83