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Key Info

Kroton Educacional SA Web - www.kroton.com.br

Tel - 55-31-3297-2213

Next Reporting Date - 15.05.2019

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Education Services Sector Link to Midlincoln Rural Investment Banking Ideas

From Souvenirs into Consumer Discretionary Sector

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    Kroton Educacional SA

    Consumer Services

    BRAZIL


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    5.92%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    5.33%

    Cost of Debt

    5.33%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    0.86

    Current Market Cap mln$

    4,083.57

    Net Debt mln$

    1,337.57

    WACC Estimate

    9.66%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    2.48

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    Revenue1604.211514.601741.221668.801661.301732.051805.791883.871966.112050.962139.472231.812328.122428.602533.41
    EBITDA Costs1032.84876.961079.781194.181076.621151.221228.971311.311398.031491.541591.311697.761811.321932.482061.74
    EBITDA571.37637.64661.44474.62584.68580.83576.81572.56568.08559.42548.16534.05516.80496.12471.67
    EBITDA Margin35.6242.1037.9928.4435.1933.5331.9430.3928.8927.2825.6223.9322.2020.4318.62
    Operating Costs1148.59992.941210.341325.461202.271282.341365.801454.181547.271647.231753.651866.951987.562115.962252.66
    Operating Profit455.62521.66530.88343.34459.04449.71439.98429.68418.84403.73385.82364.86340.57312.63280.74
    Operating Margin28.4034.4430.4920.5727.6325.9624.3722.8121.3019.6818.0316.3514.6312.8711.08
    Pretax Costs1158.00959.311139.501288.991163.781230.221299.471372.801450.051531.731618.011709.161805.431907.132014.56
    PTP446.21555.29601.71379.81497.53501.83506.31511.06516.06519.23521.46522.65522.69521.46518.84
    Pretax Margin27.8136.6634.5622.7629.9528.9728.0427.1326.2525.3224.3723.4222.4521.4720.48
    Net Income Costs1060.24934.721039.341239.211088.271136.641187.061240.451296.681354.881415.701479.251545.651615.031687.53
    Net Income543.97579.89701.88429.59573.03595.41 18.73643.42669.43696.08723.77752.55782.47813.56845.88
    Net Margin33.9138.2940.3125.7434.4934.3834.2634.1534.0533.9433.8333.7233.6133.5033.39
    Revenue Less Capex1711.031598.461862.541823.181784.191870.241959.932054.902154.942259.162368.422482.972603.062728.962860.94
    Capex-106.82-83.86-121.32-154.38-122.89-138.19-154.14-171.03-188.83-208.20-228.95-251.17-274.94-300.36-327.54
    Capex to Revenues-6.66-5.54-6.97-9.25-7.40-7.98-8.54-9.08-9.60-10.15-10.70-11.25-11.81-12.37-12.93
    Revenue less FCF1418.181072.841290.341512.191354.871431.411511.191595.671684.651778.661877.911982.702093.332210.142333.47
    FCF186.03441.77450.88156.61306.44300.64294.60288.20281.46272.31261.57249.11234.79218.45199.93
    FCF to Revenue11.6029.1725.899.3818.4517.3616.3115.3014.3213.2812.2311.1610.089.007.89

    BRAZIL Comparables

    tickercompanycountry Market Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    KROT3 BZKroton Educacional SABRAZIL 4083.579.149.158.668.032.494.7037.880.929.79-20.74
    ESTC3 BZEstacio Participacoes SABRAZIL 2190.699.978.947.647.082.364.1830.842.5927.9025.83
    AEDU3 BZAnhanguera Educacional Participacoes SABRAZIL ------27.21-17.27#N/A N/A

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountry Market Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    MCD USMcDonald's CorpUNITED STATES 151118.3924.3822.5316.8516.067.242.3651.53--89.5115.61
    SBUX USStarbucks CorpUNITED STATES 95894.0028.1925.1917.6516.043.651.9321.57--93.2034.20
    LVS USLas Vegas Sands CorpUNITED STATES 51886.0920.1218.9411.9311.473.694.6536.198.7242.8031.67
    MAR USMarriott International Inc/MDUNITED STATES 45682.6622.3019.5614.8513.932.111.2517.0530.61115.0021.18
    1928 HKSands China LtdMACAU 44147.1220.3118.2115.5514.404.874.7633.349.7247.5844.60
    CCL USCarnival CorpUNITED STATES 36951.8811.8310.638.507.761.843.8228.021.4612.680.87
    CCL LNCarnival PLCUNITED STATES 36939.0911.5010.338.497.751.843.9928.021.4212.68-1.29
    CPG LNCompass Group PLCBRITAIN 36099.3021.0819.7213.1212.461.132.319.668.3343.3317.75
    27 HKGalaxy Entertainment Group LtdHONG KONG 32495.7718.4816.9914.6013.293.961.5826.543.5819.8040.25
    YUM USYum! Brands IncUNITED STATES 31645.3627.0824.3919.7818.655.781.6238.24--14.7221.64
    QSR CNRestaurant Brands International IncCANADA 30238.2123.7121.5517.8716.675.443.0541.7216.3458.3320.48
    RCL USRoyal Caribbean Cruises LtdUNITED STATES 25316.6712.1010.8410.369.552.302.3131.932.0817.4718.67
    CMG USChipotle Mexican Grill IncUNITED STATES 18791.7352.1840.6229.8624.283.470.0012.8311.4721.7754.68
    SW FPSodexo SAFRANCE 16972.7819.9818.3011.7910.960.712.677.144.1221.5719.41
    WYNN USWynn Resorts LtdUNITED STATES 15822.9822.6818.1811.9210.452.272.0427.426.8433.6648.24
    MGM USMGM Resorts InternationalUNITED STATES 14899.4622.4316.3010.349.481.151.8724.322.288.3012.33
    DRI USDarden Restaurants IncUNITED STATES 14652.5720.5818.4212.7311.671.722.5214.076.1927.8416.23
    1128 HKWynn Macau LtdMACAU 14607.8718.5016.7313.2612.492.875.4126.1474.49387.9533.55
    AC FPAccor SAFRANCE 11841.7822.8019.1514.3112.822.492.7419.491.737.63-6.82
    IHG LNInterContinental Hotels Group PLCBRITAIN 11640.3620.3318.6813.9812.965.682.0446.08--52.4725.84
    WTB LNWhitbread PLCBRITAIN 10940.0423.2420.4514.3314.153.931.9830.511.5421.9011.73
    GENT MKGenting BhdMALAYSIA 6512.2110.8410.095.995.581.222.3035.580.726.37-0.82
    CWN AUCrown Resorts LtdAUSTRALIA 6415.0324.0122.1210.8410.492.794.4525.191.867.5011.62
    JFC PMJollibee Foods CorpPHILIPPINES 6346.6936.5431.7720.1917.521.820.939.146.1517.3616.22
    035250 KSKangwon Land IncSOUTH KOREA 6236.8218.9017.7010.459.934.772.7435.701.8610.1219.62
    MINT TBMinor International PCLTHAILAND 5381.2524.6721.3814.6313.251.541.3318.162.2810.026.71
    HRB USH&R Block IncUNITED STATES 5293.7513.0912.838.978.791.723.8525.228.7485.134.12
    GENM MKGenting Malaysia BhdMALAYSIA 4398.3414.9813.537.967.241.703.1122.670.916.19-24.60
    BST MKBerjaya Sports Toto BhdMALAYSIA 849.4013.1813.258.799.010.616.058.504.3228.9832.00
    2707 TTFormosa International Hotels CorpTAIWAN 645.51------#????!--18.61