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    Grupo Argos SA/Colombia

    Materials

    COLOMBIA


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    4.16%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.38%

    Cost of Debt

    4.38%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    0.95

    Current Market Cap mln$

    4,714.76

    Net Debt mln$

    7,079.75

    WACC Estimate

    6.57%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    5.74

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    Revenue4671.324778.374938.294851.414945.364979.325021.995073.535134.685187.545240.955294.905349.415404.485460.12
    EBITDA Costs3702.973586.483628.683507.223556.903544.513528.953510.143487.843469.153450.563432.073413.683395.393377.20
    EBITDA968.361191.891309.621344.191388.451434.811493.051563.391646.841718.391790.381862.831935.732009.092082.93
    EBITDA Margin20.7324.9426.5227.7128.0828.8229.7330.8132.0733.1334.1635.1836.1937.1738.15
    Operating Costs4035.103942.254084.203963.744028.434033.974040.934049.344059.314067.794076.294084.814093.354101.904110.48
    Operating Profit636.23836.12854.09887.67916.93945.35981.061024.201075.371119.751164.651210.091256.061302.581349.65
    Operating Margin13.6217.5017.3018.3018.5418.9919.5420.1920.9421.5922.2222.8523.4824.1024.72
    Pretax Costs4341.584297.534449.854330.474407.194420.314436.794456.704480.314500.494520.774541.134561.594582.144602.78
    PTP329.75480.84488.44520.94538.16559.01585.20616.84654.37687.05720.18753.77787.82822.35857.35
    Pretax Margin7.0610.069.8910.7410.8811.2311.6512.1612.7413.2413.7414.2414.7315.2215.70
    Net Income Costs4671.324609.904731.374623.884686.204692.984701.514711.814724.034734.424744.844755.284765.744776.224786.73
    Net Income0.00168.47206.92227.53259.16286.34320.48361.72410.65453.12496.11539.62583.67628.26673.39
    Net Margin0.003.534.194.695.245.756.387.138.008.739.4710.1910.9111.6212.33
    Revenue Less Capex5015.465142.945362.075249.065369.565413.975469.765537.155617.105686.505756.755827.885899.885972.776046.57
    Capex-344.14-364.58-423.78-397.65-424.20-434.65-447.77-463.62-482.42-498.96-515.81-532.98-550.47-568.29-586.44
    Capex to Revenues-7.37-7.63-8.58-8.20-8.58-8.73-8.92-9.14-9.40-9.62-9.84-10.07-10.29-10.52-10.74
    Revenue less FCF4504.934903.774668.034569.154700.504710.284722.574737.424755.034770.044785.104800.214815.364830.564845.81
    FCF166.39-125.40270.26282.26244.86269.04299.42336.11379.65417.50455.85494.70534.05573.92614.31
    FCF to Revenue3.56-2.625.475.824.955.405.966.627.398.058.709.349.9810.6211.25

    COLOMBIA Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    GRUPOARG CBGrupo Argos SA/ColombiaCOLOMBIA 4714.7615.2312.798.698.041.011.9429.320.914.0022.13
    PFGRUPOA CBGrupo Argos SA/ColombiaCOLOMBIA 4714.76------#????!--17.30
    CEMARGOS CBCementos Argos SACOLOMBIA 3330.7734.3528.1310.319.531.162.8219.091.333.9915.28
    CLH CBCEMEX Latam Holdings SACOLOMBIA 820.0512.7010.523.303.090.750.7521.710.003.93-10.90

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    BHP AUBHP Billiton LtdAUSTRALIA 127467.6613.9913.266.015.972.908.7553.762.6818.9330.66
    RIO AURio Tinto LtdBRITAIN 99241.2911.6413.035.235.702.385.8748.052.5722.2042.52
    RIO LNRio Tinto PLCBRITAIN 99239.149.9011.085.235.702.386.4948.052.1822.2033.66
    LIN GRLinde AGGERMANY 96809.5525.6422.6013.5112.513.352.0428.062.146.635.80
    BAS GRBASF SEGERMANY 74117.4313.4612.219.008.121.024.4814.681.8112.836.67
    VALE3 BZVale SABRAZIL 67060.246.817.704.374.801.834.9948.181.2720.04-16.05
    VALE5 BZVale SABRAZIL 67060.24--4.374.801.83-48.18-20.04#N/A N/A
    AI FPAir Liquide SAFRANCE 56465.4021.3319.5211.2410.542.292.3725.582.6812.878.08
    GLEN LNGlencore PLCSWITZERLAND 55212.9511.269.805.715.350.265.107.221.1710.595.42
    ECL USEcolab IncUNITED STATES 52883.5531.0327.6018.1716.773.411.0121.276.0620.1925.18
    APD USAir Products & Chemicals IncUNITED STATES 43938.4624.3421.3713.1911.854.762.2936.903.7916.0935.31
    SHW USSherwin-Williams Co/TheUNITED STATES 41662.3021.4818.7816.5614.932.270.9517.519.5545.8722.39
    DOW USDow Chemical Co/TheUNITED STATES 41303.8511.259.536.736.190.874.5417.902.0318.16#N/A N/A
    4063 JPShin-Etsu Chemical Co LtdJAPAN 39881.4112.7813.725.375.963.262.1633.961.5712.8324.88
    MNOD LIMMC Norilsk Nickel PJSCRUSSIA 35557.768.678.596.366.172.899.8254.627.7093.7739.85
    GMKN RMMMC Norilsk Nickel PJSCRUSSIA 35465.078.648.576.346.162.889.8554.627.6893.7738.49
    AAL LNAnglo American PLCBRITAIN 33488.008.8810.104.244.641.214.8635.921.2615.0327.35
    AGL SJAnglo American PLCBRITAIN 33469.278.8810.104.244.631.214.8635.921.2615.0328.98
    LYB USLyondellBasell Industries NVUNITED STATES 32832.948.587.406.315.580.854.6916.812.7135.371.72
    914 HKAnhui Conch Cement Co LtdCHINA 31384.037.637.724.424.461.604.3232.261.6623.8524.17
    SCCO USSouthern Copper CorpPERU 29375.6916.2214.548.768.033.823.2350.903.8824.645.36
    PPG USPPG Industries IncUNITED STATES 27272.0118.2516.5712.5911.821.751.7016.575.5231.3913.34
    CRG GRCRH PLCIRELAND 26573.8013.3912.698.107.630.842.5713.621.4410.5020.73
    NEM USNewmont Mining CorpUNITED STATES 25916.6225.0623.178.968.333.071.7836.241.585.989.02
    GMEXICOB MMGrupo Mexico SAB de CVMEXICO 23128.0111.8810.655.785.392.035.3946.871.8316.2025.06
    1301 TTFormosa Plastics CorpTAIWAN 22951.6615.1013.8021.3420.033.234.9214.171.8812.9913.77
    ABX CNBarrick Gold CorpCANADA 22500.2532.4327.218.317.912.681.1840.801.998.050.53
    051910 KSLG Chem LtdSOUTH KOREA 21795.0818.8213.827.345.830.821.6812.451.518.0010.65
    1326 TTFormosa Chemicals & Fibre CorpTAIWAN 20942.9613.8614.8212.7913.341.715.2214.011.6611.473.01
    SOL SJSasol LtdSOUTH AFRICA 20632.2111.589.437.476.041.443.0527.221.2011.322.97