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Ageas Web - www.ageas.com

Tel - 32-2-557-57-11

Next Reporting Date - 15.05.2019

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    Ageas

    Insurance

    BELGIUM


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    2.00%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    5.72%

    Cost of Debt

    5.72%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    0.75

    Current Market Cap mln$

    10,479.82

    Net Debt mln$

    4,182.96

    WACC Estimate

    6.28%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    51.61

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    Revenue13995.3314242.5612741.2214366.4913923.3713961.0013993.2714029.7914064.7714099.5314134.3814169.3214204.3414239.4414274.64
    EBITDA Costs13995.3314242.5612741.2214366.4913923.3713961.0013993.2714029.7914064.7714099.5314134.3814169.3214204.3414239.4414274.64
    EBITDA0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
    EBITDA Margin0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
    Operating Costs12833.7213852.8511820.2713042.8012972.5113009.3313040.9013076.6413110.8613144.8913179.0013213.1913247.4813281.8613316.32
    Operating Profit1161.62389.71920.951323.69950.86951.67952.37953.15953.91954.65955.39956.12956.85957.58958.31
    Operating Margin8.302.747.239.216.836.826.816.796.786.776.766.756.746.726.71
    Pretax Costs12701.5213761.4211489.2712890.4412807.4012849.2512885.1512925.7712964.6813003.3913042.2113081.1413120.2013159.3713198.66
    PTP1293.82481.141251.961476.051115.971111.751108.121104.021100.091096.151092.171088.171084.141080.071075.98
    Pretax Margin9.243.389.8310.278.027.967.927.877.827.777.737.687.637.597.54
    Net Income Costs13140.6313534.3711948.3613427.4713096.9213133.3613164.6113199.9713233.8513267.5113301.2613335.1013369.0313403.0313437.13
    Net Income854.70708.19792.86939.01826.45827.64828.66829.82830.92832.02833.12834.21835.31836.41837.51
    Net Margin6.114.976.226.545.945.935.925.915.915.905.895.895.885.875.87
    Revenue Less Capex14157.8414451.2013026.7014604.1314142.9714178.8914209.6914244.5514277.9314311.1014344.3514377.6714411.0714444.5514478.10
    Capex-162.50-208.64-285.48-237.64-219.60-217.89-216.42-214.76-213.16-211.57-209.97-208.35-206.73-205.10-203.47
    Capex to Revenues-1.16-1.46-2.24-1.65-1.58-1.56-1.55-1.53-1.52-1.50-1.49-1.47-1.46-1.44-1.43
    Revenue less FCF14505.0414003.1513846.3213586.5913986.8813987.5713988.1613988.8313989.4813990.1113990.7513991.3813992.0213992.6613993.29
    FCF-509.71239.41-1105.09779.90-63.51-26.575.1140.9675.30109.42143.63177.93212.32246.79281.34
    FCF to Revenue-3.641.68-8.675.43-0.46-0.190.040.290.540.781.021.261.491.731.97

    BELGIUM Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    AGS BBAgeasBELGIUM 10479.8210.8310.35--0.724.95#????!0.958.714.93

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    2318 HKPing An Insurance Group Co of China LtdCHINA 221142.4411.249.84--1.322.71#????!2.2320.6123.78
    1299 HKAIA Group LtdHONG KONG 123085.6419.0716.92--2.741.72#????!2.7215.8534.42
    2628 HKChina Life Insurance Co LtdCHINA 113763.0215.5413.96--1.032.57#????!1.5010.3237.13
    ALV GRAllianz SEGERMANY 100502.5511.2410.57--0.764.48#????!1.3712.3816.05
    CB USChubb LtdSWITZERLAND 64936.2813.2712.43--1.892.14#????!1.229.3416.09
    CS FPAXA SAFRANCE 63664.038.628.21--0.546.23#????!0.9410.175.66
    PRU LNPrudential PLCBRITAIN 58274.2211.2210.32--0.723.03#????!2.4721.6319.24
    1339 HKPeople's Insurance Co Group of China Ltd/TheCHINA 51812.517.206.54--0.632.24#????!0.7310.55-2.77
    MMC USMarsh & McLennan Cos IncUNITED STATES 47665.1520.2918.3914.9513.672.921.8624.465.5928.6015.69
    2601 HKChina Pacific Insurance Group Co LtdCHINA 45469.8612.0010.61--0.753.95#????!1.5714.3111.04
    PGR USProgressive Corp/TheUNITED STATES 44150.4014.8213.83--1.193.72#????!3.2724.2715.40
    AON USAon PLCBRITAIN 43208.6019.6117.4215.7414.503.810.9628.0010.6243.4718.53
    MET USMetLife IncUNITED STATES 42555.688.277.40--0.663.88#????!0.8211.0615.14
    PRU USPrudential Financial IncUNITED STATES 41952.217.997.40--0.753.93#????!0.8712.1716.32
    AIG USAmerican International Group IncUNITED STATES 39303.3910.378.99--0.812.98#????!0.656.9912.22
    MUV2 GRMuenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG in MuenchenGERMANY 37072.0312.4510.99--0.624.38#????!1.179.6118.84
    AFL USAflac IncUNITED STATES 36828.4311.5311.10--1.672.21#????!1.4213.7719.28
    TRV USTravelers Cos Inc/TheUNITED STATES 36455.0012.4611.74--1.182.33#????!1.4612.4216.15
    MFC CNManulife Financial CorpCANADA 35588.728.367.79--0.934.13#????!1.0912.7620.33
    8766 JPTokio Marine Holdings IncJAPAN 35566.6612.5911.81--0.724.24#????!1.067.8810.67
    ALL USAllstate Corp/TheUNITED STATES 32122.4310.759.83--0.762.02#????!1.5214.765.59
    G IMAssicurazioni Generali SpAITALY 29930.9010.5410.28--0.395.57#????!1.0911.0220.40
    2328 HKPICC Property & Casualty Co LtdCHINA 25603.888.307.39--0.423.89#????!1.0913.355.42
    SLF CNSun Life Financial IncCANADA 24507.9411.0310.25--1.143.77#????!1.4613.8014.93
    1336 HKNew China Life Insurance Co LtdCHINA 24117.2811.9710.61--0.972.39#????!1.5613.6717.81
    GWO CNGreat-West Lifeco IncCANADA 23239.0510.7410.01--0.614.78#????!1.4914.0111.79
    LGEN LNLegal & General Group PLCBRITAIN 21099.658.608.91--1.686.41#????!1.6922.0218.06
    CFHS LICathay Financial Holding Co LtdTAIWAN 19158.90------#????!--0.00
    HIG USHartford Financial Services Group Inc/TheUNITED STATES 18386.9610.259.43--0.932.43#????!1.3012.8014.45
    8725 JPMS&AD Insurance Group Holdings IncJAPAN 18239.6210.158.94--0.374.04#????!0.686.293.32