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Key Info

T&D Holdings Inc Web - www.td-holdings.co.jp

Tel - 03-3272-6104

Next Reporting Date - 15.05.2019

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    T&D Holdings

    Insurance

    JAPAN


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    2.00%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.00%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    1.41

    Current Market Cap mln$

    7,008.65

    Net Debt mln$

    -5,832.88

    WACC Estimate

    42.51%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    10.70

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    Revenue21652.3616421.7917269.6916768.4914841.4913632.6012429.7710893.669345.228242.627270.126412.355655.794988.494399.92
    EBITDA Costs21652.3616421.7917269.6916768.4914841.4913632.6012429.7710893.669345.228242.627270.126412.355655.794988.494399.92
    EBITDA0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
    EBITDA Margin0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
    Operating Costs20206.1215251.4816044.6715624.7913772.0112630.2011494.1210043.268580.757545.926635.895835.615131.844512.953968.69
    Operating Profit1446.241170.311225.021143.701069.481002.39935.64850.40764.47696.70634.22576.74523.94475.54431.23
    Operating Margin6.687.137.096.827.217.357.537.818.188.458.728.999.269.539.80
    Pretax Costs20296.7515502.7616374.3815778.7314070.9312964.2311863.0810456.819039.278017.717111.606307.895595.024962.704401.85
    PTP1355.61919.03895.31989.75770.56668.37566.69436.84305.95224.91158.51104.4560.7725.78-1.93
    Pretax Margin6.265.605.185.905.194.904.564.013.272.732.181.631.070.52-0.04
    Net Income Costs20791.0215816.9916574.1716068.2914258.0813099.2811946.2910473.838989.567931.836998.556175.085448.504807.424241.76
    Net Income861.33604.80695.51700.20583.41533.32483.48419.83355.66310.80271.57237.27207.28181.07158.15
    Net Margin3.983.684.034.183.933.913.893.853.813.773.743.703.663.633.59
    Revenue Less Capex21907.4116643.9517430.5317252.8015151.4013953.6312761.8611239.889705.708601.967623.736756.755988.375307.364703.80
    Capex-255.05-222.15-160.84-484.31-309.91-321.03-332.10-346.23-360.48-359.33-353.62-344.40-332.58-318.88-303.88
    Capex to Revenues-1.18-1.35-0.93-2.89-2.09-2.35-2.67-3.18-3.86-4.36-4.86-5.37-5.88-6.39-6.91
    Revenue less FCF16268.8614064.2514250.6213912.0913190.7712647.0612106.0811415.2010718.7910144.089600.189085.448598.318137.297700.99
    FCF5383.502357.543019.072856.401650.72985.54323.69-521.55-1373.56-1901.45-2330.06-2673.10-2942.52-3148.81-3301.08
    FCF to Revenue24.8614.3617.4817.0311.127.232.60-4.79-14.70-23.07-32.05-41.69-52.03-63.12-75.03

    JAPAN Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    8766 JPTokio Marine Holdings IncJAPAN 35566.6612.5911.81--0.724.24#????!1.067.8810.67
    8725 JPMS&AD Insurance Group Holdings IncJAPAN 18239.6210.158.94--0.374.04#????!0.686.293.32
    8750 JPDai-ichi Life Holdings IncJAPAN 17089.718.407.71--0.273.36#????!0.485.73-22.15
    8630 JPSompo Holdings IncJAPAN 13890.989.187.79--0.423.12#????!0.828.27-7.60
    8795 JPT&D Holdings IncJAPAN 7008.659.238.61--0.373.38#????!0.636.52-31.04

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountry Market Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    2318 HKPing An Insurance Group Co of China LtdCHINA 221142.4411.249.84--1.322.71#????!2.2320.6123.78
    1299 HKAIA Group LtdHONG KONG 123085.6419.0716.92--2.741.72#????!2.7215.8534.42
    2628 HKChina Life Insurance Co LtdCHINA 113763.0215.5413.96--1.032.57#????!1.5010.3237.13
    ALV GRAllianz SEGERMANY 100502.5511.2410.57--0.764.48#????!1.3712.3816.05
    CB USChubb LtdSWITZERLAND 64936.2813.2712.43--1.892.14#????!1.229.3416.09
    CS FPAXA SAFRANCE 63664.038.628.21--0.546.23#????!0.9410.175.66
    PRU LNPrudential PLCBRITAIN 58274.2211.2210.32--0.723.03#????!2.4721.6319.24
    1339 HKPeople's Insurance Co Group of China Ltd/TheCHINA 51812.517.206.54--0.632.24#????!0.7310.55-2.77
    MMC USMarsh & McLennan Cos IncUNITED STATES 47665.1520.2918.3914.9513.672.921.8624.465.5928.6015.69
    2601 HKChina Pacific Insurance Group Co LtdCHINA 45469.8612.0010.61--0.753.95#????!1.5714.3111.04
    PGR USProgressive Corp/TheUNITED STATES 44150.4014.8213.83--1.193.72#????!3.2724.2715.40
    AON USAon PLCBRITAIN 43208.6019.6117.4215.7414.503.810.9628.0010.6243.4718.53
    MET USMetLife IncUNITED STATES 42555.688.277.40--0.663.88#????!0.8211.0615.14
    PRU USPrudential Financial IncUNITED STATES 41952.217.997.40--0.753.93#????!0.8712.1716.32
    AIG USAmerican International Group IncUNITED STATES 39303.3910.378.99--0.812.98#????!0.656.9912.22
    MUV2 GRMuenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG in MuenchenGERMANY 37072.0312.4510.99--0.624.38#????!1.179.6118.84
    AFL USAflac IncUNITED STATES 36828.4311.5311.10--1.672.21#????!1.4213.7719.28
    TRV USTravelers Cos Inc/TheUNITED STATES 36455.0012.4611.74--1.182.33#????!1.4612.4216.15
    MFC CNManulife Financial CorpCANADA 35588.728.367.79--0.934.13#????!1.0912.7620.33
    ALL USAllstate Corp/TheUNITED STATES 32122.4310.759.83--0.762.02#????!1.5214.765.59
    G IMAssicurazioni Generali SpAITALY 29930.9010.5410.28--0.395.57#????!1.0911.0220.40
    2328 HKPICC Property & Casualty Co LtdCHINA 25603.888.307.39--0.423.89#????!1.0913.355.42
    SLF CNSun Life Financial IncCANADA 24507.9411.0310.25--1.143.77#????!1.4613.8014.93
    1336 HKNew China Life Insurance Co LtdCHINA 24117.2811.9710.61--0.972.39#????!1.5613.6717.81
    GWO CNGreat-West Lifeco IncCANADA 23239.0510.7410.01--0.614.78#????!1.4914.0111.79
    LGEN LNLegal & General Group PLCBRITAIN 21099.658.608.91--1.686.41#????!1.6922.0218.06
    CFHS LICathay Financial Holding Co LtdTAIWAN 19158.90------#????!--0.00
    HIG USHartford Financial Services Group Inc/TheUNITED STATES 18386.9610.259.43--0.932.43#????!1.3012.8014.45
    HNR1 GRHannover Rueck SEGERMANY 18137.0013.9013.17--0.803.93#????!1.7613.1114.67
    2882 TTCathay Financial Holding Co LtdTAIWAN 18076.2710.869.73--1.114.48#????!0.969.44-5.93