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Key Info

Hyundai Merchant Marine Co Ltd Web - www.hmm21.com

Tel - 82-2-3706-5114

Next Reporting Date - 15.05.2019

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    Hyundai Merchant Marine Co Ltd

    Transportation

    SOUTH KOREA


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    2.00%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.00%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    1.19

    Current Market Cap mln$

    1,056.69

    Net Debt mln$

    1,334.40

    WACC Estimate

    6.27%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    3.37

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    Revenue4990.983953.614449.024747.834605.914631.204656.484680.904705.834730.974756.254781.664807.214832.904858.72
    EBITDA Costs5031.774509.064703.285153.904891.744906.884922.024936.644951.564966.554981.584996.655011.775026.945042.15
    EBITDA-40.80-555.44-254.26-406.07-285.83-275.68-265.54-255.74-245.73-235.57-225.33-214.99-204.56-194.04-183.43
    EBITDA Margin-0.82-14.05-5.71-8.55-6.21-5.95-5.70-5.46-5.22-4.98-4.74-4.50-4.26-4.02-3.78
    Operating Costs5237.944669.824808.965255.745036.885052.575068.255083.395098.865114.385129.965145.585161.245176.965192.72
    Operating Profit-246.96-716.20-359.94-507.92-430.97-421.36-411.76-402.49-393.03-383.41-373.70-363.91-354.03-344.06-334.00
    Operating Margin-4.95-18.12-8.09-10.70-9.36-9.10-8.84-8.60-8.35-8.10-7.86-7.61-7.36-7.12-6.87
    Pretax Costs5614.534311.875499.335455.985306.955337.965368.965398.905429.485460.335491.365522.565553.945585.505617.24
    PTP-623.55-358.26-1050.31-708.15-701.03-706.76-712.48-718.00-723.64-729.35-735.10-740.90-746.73-752.61-758.53
    Pretax Margin-12.49-9.06-23.61-14.92-15.22-15.26-15.30-15.34-15.38-15.42-15.46-15.49-15.53-15.57-15.61
    Net Income Costs5535.653957.444449.024747.834772.034807.704843.374877.824913.004948.604984.475020.595056.985093.635130.55
    Net Income-544.68-3.820.000.00-166.11-176.50-186.89-196.92-207.16-217.63-228.22-238.93-249.77-260.73-271.83
    Net Margin-10.91-0.100.000.00-3.61-3.81-4.01-4.21-4.40-4.60-4.80-5.00-5.20-5.39-5.59
    Revenue Less Capex5115.284087.474716.715038.874812.204838.234864.254889.374915.044940.914966.924993.075019.355045.775072.33
    Capex-124.31-133.86-267.69-291.04-206.29-207.02-207.76-208.48-209.21-209.94-210.67-211.40-212.14-212.88-213.62
    Capex to Revenues-2.49-3.39-6.02-6.13-4.48-4.47-4.46-4.45-4.45-4.44-4.43-4.42-4.41-4.40-4.40
    Revenue less FCF5253.724638.474960.385417.905116.905134.575152.235169.285186.695204.195221.745239.355257.025274.765292.55
    FCF-262.75-684.85-511.36-670.08-510.99-503.36-495.74-488.38-480.86-473.21-465.49-457.69-449.81-441.86-433.83
    FCF to Revenue-5.26-17.32-11.49-14.11-11.09-10.87-10.65-10.43-10.22-10.00-9.79-9.57-9.36-9.14-8.93

    SOUTH KOREA Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    086280 KSHyundai Glovis Co LtdSOUTH KOREA 4747.4510.119.576.345.970.312.295.331.1812.1337.25
    003490 KSKorean Air Lines Co LtdSOUTH KOREA 2720.009.706.816.296.140.240.7720.760.929.7225.16
    011200 KSHyundai Merchant Marine Co LtdSOUTH KOREA 1056.69--10.52-0.23-4.74--43.14-0.43

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountry Market Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    UNP USUnion Pacific CorpUNITED STATES 124218.5219.3116.9713.0512.085.312.0549.187.3233.2324.24
    UPS USUnited Parcel Service IncUNITED STATES 90430.4913.9612.879.979.241.203.6614.0814.34123.371.53
    CNR CNCanadian National Railway CoCANADA 68123.6920.4018.2813.5312.535.901.6649.434.8223.3415.29
    CSX USCSX CorpUNITED STATES 63551.7117.9616.3211.7711.245.051.1852.595.3127.7519.90
    NSC USNorfolk Southern CorpUNITED STATES 53940.7818.7116.5311.8710.964.531.7045.893.4718.4026.47
    FDX USFedEx CorpUNITED STATES 49214.7312.3011.227.667.100.711.3812.122.4319.34-9.66
    DPW GRDeutsche Post AGGERMANY 42299.2114.1012.386.896.320.594.0011.692.5719.155.96
    DAL USDelta Air Lines IncUNITED STATES 37144.858.487.886.025.850.802.5518.912.3029.567.87
    66 HKMTR Corp LtdHONG KONG 36638.1022.3821.0815.6014.725.212.7337.221.526.9722.75
    9020 JPEast Japan Railway CoJAPAN 35730.7513.8113.098.207.781.291.4028.431.339.9610.74
    CP CNCanadian Pacific Railway LtdCANADA 31125.3518.2916.1013.2312.165.260.9248.285.5232.0113.92
    AOT TBAirports of Thailand PCLTHAILAND 30382.7535.3432.3222.9420.8314.851.5760.996.2018.2117.23
    MAERSKA DAP Moller - Maersk A/SDENMARK 27713.19--6.445.760.66-13.11-2.79#N/A N/A
    MAERSKA DCAP Moller - Maersk A/SDENMARK 26794.5438.5319.486.445.760.66-13.110.872.7929.07
    MAERSKB DCAP Moller - Maersk A/SDENMARK 26794.5441.1720.816.445.760.662.0713.110.932.7929.16
    MAERSKB DAP Moller - Maersk A/SDENMARK 25934.55--6.445.760.66-13.11-2.79#N/A N/A
    TCL AUTransurban GroupAUSTRALIA 25833.5194.0473.4227.0624.1411.354.3061.365.403.8324.05
    UAL USUnited Continental Holdings IncUNITED STATES 22954.597.727.105.895.620.530.0015.211.8727.392.64
    ATL IMAtlantia SpAITALY 21740.5612.6612.069.879.551.805.0864.371.8015.8931.32
    753 HKAir China LtdCHINA 19822.4510.448.727.987.070.902.1322.231.1010.6747.70
    DSV DCDSV A/SDENMARK 16325.1325.3623.0612.1412.081.330.4311.507.0328.7112.70
    AAL USAmerican Airlines Group IncUNITED STATES 15002.955.965.517.016.900.321.2013.077.83377.313.49
    BOL FPBollore SAFRANCE 13716.3635.9733.3812.5311.660.511.5011.701.162.3611.88
    IAG SMInternational Consolidated Airlines Group SABRITAIN 13535.775.354.952.882.710.474.9417.911.5129.43-7.38
    EXPD USExpeditors International of Washington IncUNITED STATES 13530.2921.9420.7514.0813.311.571.2110.406.9330.8221.22
    1055 HKChina Southern Airlines Co LtdCHINA 13387.919.597.757.967.040.562.1117.330.9910.4261.64
    KSU USKansas City SouthernUNITED STATES 12403.3818.0015.8610.829.874.301.2249.462.4713.6921.44
    CHRW USCH Robinson Worldwide IncUNITED STATES 12167.2317.6216.6512.3311.860.712.286.216.7440.633.95
    SYD AUSydney AirportAUSTRALIA 12126.0442.6839.3819.9718.9110.395.1081.16--184.4222.87
    9202 JPANA Holdings IncJAPAN 12116.2612.2611.055.845.270.721.8515.961.2910.6111.10