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Key Info

Korean Air Lines Co Ltd Web - www.koreanair.com

Tel - 82-2-2656-7114

Next Reporting Date - 15.05.2019

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    Korean Air Lines Co

    Transportat

    SOUTH KO


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    2.00%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.00%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    1.01

    Current Market Cap mln$

    2,720.00

    Net Debt mln$

    12,660.27

    WACC Estimate

    4.72%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    28.67

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    Revenue10207.1610116.7210699.7511837.7112409.7113017.0213624.1914210.4514809.2715459.9616139.2516848.3717588.6618361.4719168.24
    EBITDA Costs7971.397639.308369.839681.4610322.3811005.8711689.1812348.9813022.9013774.3514569.1515409.8116298.9817239.4618234.20
    EBITDA2235.772477.422329.912156.262087.332011.161935.001861.471786.371685.621570.101438.561289.681122.01934.04
    EBITDA Margin21.9024.4921.7818.2216.8215.4514.2013.1012.0610.909.738.547.336.114.87
    Operating Costs9426.399149.689867.8911254.8811921.0712636.6313352.0114042.7614748.3115527.9416348.7917213.0418122.9619080.9920089.67
    Operating Profit780.77967.04831.86582.83488.64380.40272.18167.6960.97-67.98-209.55-364.66-534.30-719.52-921.43
    Operating Margin7.659.567.774.923.942.922.001.180.41-0.44-1.30-2.16-3.04-3.92-4.81
    Pretax Costs10637.1710735.359707.2112027.4412145.7412636.4113126.9613600.6214084.4214603.0915140.8515698.4216276.5116875.9017497.36
    PTP-430.01-618.63992.53-189.73263.97380.62497.23609.84724.85856.88998.401149.961312.151485.571670.88
    Pretax Margin-4.21-6.119.28-1.602.132.923.654.294.895.546.196.837.468.098.72
    Net Income Costs10830.3010603.839999.3812013.2212194.5812672.3213149.9513611.1414082.2014586.2115108.2615648.9916209.0716789.2017390.09
    Net Income-623.15-487.11700.36-175.51215.13< /td>344.70474.24599.31727.07873.751030.991199.391379.591572.281778.15
    Net Margin-6.11-4.816.55-1.481.732.653.484.224.915.656.397.127.848.569.28
    Revenue Less Capex11747.9611104.2112360.1812998.0113658.7314234.4214809.9715365.7115933.3416543.5917177.2117835.0918518.1819227.4219963.83
    Capex-1540.80-987.49-1660.44-1160.29-1249.02-1217.40-1185.78-1155.25-1124.07-1083.63-1037.96-986.72-929.52-865.95-795.59
    Capex to Revenues-15.10-9.76-15.52-9.80-10.06-9.35-8.70-8.13-7.59-7.01-6.43-5.86-5.28-4.72-4.15
    Revenue less FCF9677.079029.5310281.7810953.5611620.5812206.6512792.5813358.3313936.2014565.5815223.3915910.9016629.4617380.4818165.41
    FCF530.091087.19417.97884.15789.13810.37831.61852.12873.07894.38915.86937.47959.20981.001002.83
    FCF to Revenue5.1910.753.917.476.366.236.106.005.905.795.675.565.455.345.23

    SOUTH KOREA Comparables

    tickercompanycountry Market Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    086280 KSHyundai Glovis Co LtdSOUTH KOREA 4747.4510.119.576.345.970.312.295.331.1812.1337.25
    003490 KSKorean Air Lines Co LtdSOUTH KOREA 2720.009.706.816.296.140.240.7720.760.929.7225.16
    011200 KSHyundai Merchant Marine Co LtdSOUTH KOREA 1056.69--10.52-0.23-4.74--43.14-0.43

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
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    NSC USNorfolk Southern CorpUNITED STATES 53940.7818.7116.5311.8710.964.531.7045.893.4718.4026.47
    FDX USFedEx CorpUNITED STATES 49214.7312.3011.227.667.100.711.3812.122.4319.34-9.66
    DPW GRDeutsche Post AGGERMANY 42299.2114.1012.386.896.320.594.0011.692.5719.155.96
    DAL USDelta Air Lines IncUNITED STATES 37144.858.487.886.025.850.802.5518.912.3029.567.87
    66 HKMTR Corp LtdHONG KONG 36638.1022.3821.0815.6014.725.212.7337.221.526.9722.75
    9020 JPEast Japan Railway CoJAPAN 35730.7513.8113.098.207.781.291.4028.431.339.9610.74
    CP CNCanadian Pacific Railway LtdCANADA 31125.3518.2916.1013.2312.165.260.9248.285.5232.0113.92
    AOT TBAirports of Thailand PCLTHAILAND 30382.7535.3432.3222.9420.8314.851.5760.996.2018.2117.23
    MAERSKA DAP Moller - Maersk A/SDENMARK 27713.19--6.445.760.66-13.11-2.79#N/A N/A
    MAERSKA DCAP Moller - Maersk A/SDENMARK 26794.5438.5319.486.445.760.66-13.110.872.7929.07
    MAERSKB DCAP Moller - Maersk A/SDENMARK 26794.5441.1720.816.445.760.662.0713.110.932.7929.16
    MAERSKB DAP Moller - Maersk A/SDENMARK 25934.55--6.445.760.66-13.11-2.79#N/A N/A
    TCL AUTransurban GroupAUSTRALIA 25833.5194.0473.4227.0624.1411.354.3061.365.403.8324.05
    UAL USUnited Continental Holdings IncUNITED STATES 22954.597.727.105.895.620.530.0015.211.8727.392.64
    ATL IMAtlantia SpAITALY 21740.5612.6612.069.879.551.805.0864.371.8015.8931.32
    753 HKAir China LtdCHINA 19822.4510.448.727.987.070.902.1322.231.1010.6747.70
    DSV DCDSV A/SDENMARK 16325.1325.3623.0612.1412.081.330.4311.507.0328.7112.70
    AAL USAmerican Airlines Group IncUNITED STATES 15002.955.965.517.016.900.321.2013.077.83377.313.49
    BOL FPBollore SAFRANCE 13716.3635.9733.3812.5311.660.511.5011.701.162.3611.88
    IAG SMInternational Consolidated Airlines Group SABRITAIN 13535.775.354.952.882.710.474.9417.911.5129.43-7.38
    EXPD USExpeditors International of Washington IncUNITED STATES 13530.2921.9420.7514.0813.311.571.2110.406.9330.8221.22
    1055 HKChina Southern Airlines Co LtdCHINA 13387.919.597.757.967.040.562.1117.330.9910.4261.64
    KSU USKansas City SouthernUNITED STATES 12403.3818.0015.8610.829.874.301.2249.462.4713.6921.44
    CHRW USCH Robinson Worldwide IncUNITED STATES 12167.2317.6216.6512.3311.860.712.286.216.7440.633.95
    SYD AUSydney AirportAUSTRALIA 12126.0442.6839.3819.9718.9110.395.1081.16--184.4222.87
    9202 JPANA Holdings IncJAPAN 12116.2612.2611.055.845.270.721.8515.961.2910.6111.10