1 Midlincoln
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Key Info

Ventas Inc Web - www.ventasreit.com

Tel - 1-877-483-6827

Next Reporting Date - 20.02.2020

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Ventas Inc

Real Estate

UNITED STATES


DCF Model Assumptions

Risk Free Rate

2.00%

Country Equity Risk Premium

6.00%

Cost of Debt

5.24%

Cost of Debt

5.24%

Long Term Growth

2.00%

Beta Assumption

0.20

Current Market Cap mln$

22,270.98

Net Debt mln$

12,561.35

WACC Estimate

3.94%

Ordinary Current Price $

59.75

DCF Model

DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
Revenue3286.403443.523574.153745.813920.884086.204247.074403.254565.824737.904916.465101.755294.025493.545700.58
EBITDA Costs1561.581593.581632.491873.831933.892042.582148.352251.032357.922473.512594.762721.962855.392995.363142.20
EBITDA1724.821849.941941.661871.981986.992043.622098.722152.222207.902264.392321.702379.792438.632498.182558.39
EBITDA Margin52.4853.7254.3349.9850.6850.0149.4248.8848.3647.7947.2246.6546.0645.4744.88
Operating Costs2535.242492.512520.442793.472808.332898.572986.383071.633160.373252.793347.913445.813546.583650.293757.03
Operating Profit751.16951.021053.71952.341112.541187.631260.691331.621405.451485.111568.551655.941747.451843.251943.55
Operating Margin22.8627.6229.4825.4228.3729.0629.6830.2430.7831.3531.9032.4633.0133.5534.09
Pretax Costs2936.142822.452272.733369.773094.013192.673288.683381.893478.913579.913683.853790.813900.874014.134130.67
PTP350.26621.071301.42376.04826.87893.53958.391021.361086.911157.981232.611310.941393.151479.421569.91
Pretax Margin10.6618.0436.4110.0421.0921.8722.5723.2023.8124.4425.0725.7026.3226.9327.54
Net Income Costs2740.102861.902242.933287.273100.193228.573353.493474.773601.013734.473872.884016.424165.284319.664479.76
Net Income546.30581.621331.22458.55820.69857.63893.58928.48964.811003.421043.581085.331128.741173.881220.82
Net Margin16.6216.8937.2512.2420.9320.9921.0421.0921.1321.1821.2321.2721.3221.3721.42
Revenue Less Capex5937.194857.124238.834011.723044.862350.071674.011017.64334.42183.80101.0255.5230.5216.779.22
Capex-2650.79-1413.60-664.68-265.91876.021736.132573.063385.614231.404554.094815.445046.225263.505476.775691.36
Capex to Revenues-80.66-41.05-18.60-7.1022.3442.4960.5876.8992.6896.1297.9598.9199.4299.6999.84
Revenue less FCF4765.523763.523241.723092.982230.081628.591043.32475.10-116.36-33.01-9.37-2.66-0.75-0.21-0.06
FCF-1479.12-320.00332.43652.831690.802457.613203.743928.154682.184770.914925.825104.405294.785493.765700.64
FCF to Revenue-45.01-9.299.3017.4343.1260.1475.4389.21102.55100.70100.19100.05100.01100.00100.00

UNITED STATES Comparables

tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
2019
PE RATIO
2019
PE RATIO
2020
EV/EBITDA
2019
EV/EBITDA
2020
P/S
2019
DIVIDEND YIELD
2019
EBITDA Margin
2019
P/B
2019
ROE
2019
6 month return
2019
AMT USAmerican Tower CorpUNITED STATES 113503.4963.6858.1228.5426.7414.961.4762.2121.927.0816.84
PLD USPrologis IncUNITED STATES 72006.8777.542.8421.1829.4811.882.381002.496.9818.1
CCI USCrown Castle International CorpUNITED STATES 69005.0981.8869.5325.8124.5411.682.7657.926.216.9912.87
EQIX USEquinix IncUNITED STATES 55316.1390.5380.6724.9322.455.551.6944.145.636.3223.2
SPG USSimon Property Group IncUNITED STATES 42630.2420.8720.2116.5613.029.195.5773.8218.3873.07-9.53
PSA USPublic StorageUNITED STATES 40669.1130.9930.3222.9822.6714.363.4470.814.6527.316.56
SBAC USSBA Communications CorpUNITED STATES 33173.38264.94145.9230.4928.3816.520.2470.08--4.3928.96
EQR USEquity ResidentialUNITED STATES 32134.6657.9251.2523.0623.49.422.8164.422.939.4815.91
AVB USAvalonBay Communities IncUNITED STATES 31777.2547.2245.0324.6724.4810.532.964.082.687.276.9
DLR USDigital Realty Trust IncUNITED STATES 28592.1107.6743.4121.4121.337.213.6154.783.125.9311.75
O USRealty Income CorpUNITED STATES 26155.0158.7552.4924.7421.6917.613.3889.742.74.636.58
WY USWeyerhaeuser CoUNITED STATES 22857.6179.0448.3624.4718.932.214.518.022.75-0.8812.19
BXP USBoston Properties IncUNITED STATES 22789.7837.8641.5920.8720.036.42.7857.43.899.151.99
VTR USVentas IncUNITED STATES 22270.9842.4751.6418.218.145.835.3249.771.53-0.7616.46
ESS USEssex Property Trust IncUNITED STATES 21421.6947.950.3826.7724.0711.572.5966.33.27.0413.48
UDR USUDR IncUNITED STATES 14823.6865.16218.7827.0925.110.152.9363.274.155.868.02
DRE USDuke Realty CorpUNITED STATES 14144.1265.9369.9627.0126.719.772.7159.412.548.877.4
VNO USVornado Realty TrustUNITED STATES 12956.834.1835.6627.5622.126.924.5642.052.0253.49-2.75
HST USHost Hotels & Resorts IncUNITED STATES 12127.4812.418.169.6710.712.234.9427.91.6413.31-8.92
REG USRegency Centers CorpUNITED STATES 10738.5137.6231.5819.7218.828.883.7165.681.73.88.58
VER USVEREIT IncUNITED STATES 10708.92-43.0515.5615.728.75.48851.57-1.5622.51
LPT USLiberty Property TrustUNITED STATES 9763.19----14.842.65#????!--7.47
FRT USFederal Realty Investment TrustUNITED STATES 9625.1842.1638.9422.4921.039.453.2264.154.0915.163.1
IRM USIron Mountain IncUNITED STATES 9522.5634.4719.9813.3211.762.197.6933.776.1315.97-0.38
KIM USKimco Realty CorpUNITED STATES 8316.7628.4622.4221.8817.295.295.4158.352.047.8119.07
SLG USSL Green Realty CorpUNITED STATES 7724.9127.7335.9620.7618.355.593.7454.781.44.7-6.66
MAC USMacerich Co/TheUNITED STATES 3226.535.3850.0917.212.086.3611.1457.851.453.47-18.33
ARCP USVEREIT IncUNITED STATES --00--85--1.56#N/A N/A
CBG USCBRE Group IncUNITED STATES --00--8.88-23.64#N/A N/A
GGP USGGP IncUNITED STATES --29.01-7.137.1644.230.6931.57#N/A N/A

International Comparables

tickercompanycountry Market Cap
2019
PE RATIO
2019
PE RATIO
2020
EV/EBITDA
2019
EV/EBITDA
2020
P/S
2019
DIVIDEND YIELD
2019
EBITDA Margin
2019
P/B
2019
ROE
2019
6 month return
2019
688 HKChina Overseas Land & Investment LtdHONG KONG 40415.527.116.026.365.321.463.7931.590.9814.74-7.37
1109 HKChina Resources Land LtdHONG KONG 33144.969.788.317.76.711.553.5831.561.4416.138.91
3333 HKChina Evergrande GroupCHINA 32625.145.214.847.156.730.4310.3227.41.4330.44-31.7
2007 HKCountry Garden Holdings Co LtdCHINA 31065.135.34.614.273.880.445.8918.251.4129.51-3.71
960 HKLongfor Properties Co LtdCHINA 29394.2112.5310.2410.28.441.43.5324.462.219.0624.98
8802 JPMitsubishi Estate Co LtdJAPAN 26400.2820.6820.6916.3217.512.091.524.761.577.765.49
8801 JPMitsui Fudosan Co LtdJAPAN 26150.1816.2415.516.2816.881.461.5818.331.177.41-7.99
SMPH PMSM Prime Holdings IncPHILIPPINES 23812.8632.2328.7621.3618.9910.120.9655.453.9712.86-8.79
823 HKLink REITHONG KONG 21082.979.627.5911.0524.3314.72.95194.541.0311.074.64
GMG AUGoodman GroupAUSTRALIA 20371.3916.7228.6558.0325.2810.93228.712.5916.531.13
8830 JPSumitomo Realty & Development Co LtdJAPAN 17813.6816.6113.4120.0418.21.970.6526.321.811.26-9.66
17 HKNew World Development Co LtdHONG KONG 13773.726.8712.269.716.641.814.1736.020.568.25-16.9
SCG AUScentre GroupAUSTRALIA 13323.1315.2414.8816.5116.38.626.0386.50.845.510.84
SGRO LNSegro PLCBRITAIN 13151.5211.3134.4915.5333.8116.092.31173.341.2812.059.22
813 HKShimao Property Holdings LtdHONG KONG 12627.847.66.177.3660.775.1724.671.2316.7422.16
ALI PMAyala Land IncPHILIPPINES 11933.8518.3515.9412.9411.33.521.4536.862.8116.5216.15
LI FPKlepierreFRANCE 10234.530.511.0441.6520.3166.532.1413.23-2.95
DXS AUDexusAUSTRALIA 9822.3310.4222.3738.2122.4911.763.8760.231.2111.76-3.59
LAND LNLand Securities Group PLCBRITAIN 9533.34-16.85228.8321.168.644.996.080.68-1.17-16.03
SPSN VXSwiss Prime Site AGSWITZERLAND 9500.06--007.38-41.26-8.61#N/A N/A
817 HKChina Jinmao Holdings Group LtdHONG KONG 9217.659.927.811.789.751.244.1427.991.5315.1811.35
CPN TBCentral Pattana PCLTHAILAND 8914.4624.5422.316.5815.197.631.7453.113.8416.090.16
MGR AUMirvac GroupAUSTRALIA 8734.311.3418.8621.7618.023.743.7132.811.2411.029.4
A17U LIAscendas Real Estate Investment TrustSINGAPORE 8545.87#N/A Field Not Applicable--0#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable-#N/A Field Not Applicable7.6#N/A N/A
GPT AUGPT Group/TheAUSTRALIA 8243.4711.9418.529.3220.8112.84.7362.840.968.21-1.56
SGP AUStocklandAUSTRALIA 8085.1332.0814.2816.8217.273.476.6231.111.013.0816.82
DLFU INDLF LtdINDIA 7605.1427.4334.6225.5831.385.350.9925.61.343.83-20.55
BLND LNBritish Land Co PLC/TheBRITAIN 7011.55-17.58-20.4310.185.26-21.460.66-3.28-15.18
FUNO11 MMFibra Uno Administracion SA de CVMEXICO 6799.5812.4712.5716.4813.76.647.2969.050.796.592.51
LLC AULendLease GroupAUSTRALIA 6756.315.6813.2316.59.560.693.233.21.157.3332.96

EV, Debt, Cash

Fields2018
EV34832.33
Cash72.28
Debt10733.7
Debt/Equity114.1
Pref Equity0
Shares Out356.57
minorities243.88

Last Price

Fields2018
Last Price59.75
Next DVD Ex Date31.03.2020
DVD Announcement Date25.10.2019
Last Ex Date31.12.2019

CashflowSummary

Fields201520162017201820192020
Revenue3286.3983443.5223574.1493745.813817.5563900.375
Operating Profit751.157951.0151053.713952.34417172052
PTP350.255621.0691301.423376.038271.4220
Net Income546.301581.6231331.22458.545518.667439.167
EPS1.6355971.669463.7126221.2762141.4071.157
DPS3.042.9653.1153.16253.1763.215
EBITDA1724.821849.9391941.6611871.9831899.8571906.353
BPS28.6064179829.538353830.507167628.6501940739.0638.315
Capex-2650.788-1413.595-664.684-265.907-139.7-155.5
FCF-1479.118-319.996332.425652.8261128.6031094.99
EV TO T12M EBIT40.3134.9631.1233.3933.3933.39
EV/EBITDA17.5517.9716.8916.9918.218.14
CUR RATIO------

Ratios

Fields201520162017201820192020
Market Cap22270.9822270.9822270.9822270.9822270.9822270.98
PE RATIO37.0937.5134.7249.2542.4751.64
EV/EBITDA17.5517.9716.8916.9918.218.14
P/S5.676.265.575.975.835.71
DIVIDEND YIELD5.394.745.195.45.325.38
EBITDA Margin52.4853.7254.3349.9849.770.53
P/B1.972.121.972.051.531.56
ROE4.586.4812.723.88-0.76-1.04
6 month return16.4616.4616.4616.4616.4616.46