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Key Info

KAZ Minerals PLC Web - www.kazminerals.com

Tel - 44-20-7901-7800

Next Reporting Date - 20.02.2020

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    KAZ Minerals PLC

    Materials

    BRITAIN


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    2.00%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.00%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    2.28

    Current Market Cap mln$

    3,132.28

    Net Debt mln$

    2,561.00

    WACC Estimate

    10.43%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    6.63

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    Capex-1122.00-321.00-135.00-613.00-225.14-94.5432.53155.91284.33481.64726.341027.591396.141844.622387.83
    Revenue Less Capex1787.001087.001798.002775.003034.193508.803970.624418.994885.695455.936092.736803.867597.988484.809475.12
    Net Income-10.00180.00476.00530.00794.85997.601194.881386.411585.781849.692156.772514.012929.493412.593974.18
    Net Margin-1.5023.5028.6224.5128.3029.2229.8530.3030.6731.1531.6332.1032.5733.0433.50
    Net Income Costs675.00586.001187.001632.002014.202416.672808.273188.483584.234087.884662.305317.446064.636916.827888.76
    PTP12.00220.00580.00642.00955.331194.901428.011654.341889.922200.952562.382982.303470.064036.504694.16
    Pretax Margin1.8028.7234.8829.6934.0135.0035.6736.1636.5637.0737.5838.0838.5839.0839.57
    Pretax Costs653.00546.001083.001520.001853.732219.362575.142920.553280.093736.624256.694849.155524.076292.927168.78
    Operating Margin13.5328.4642.9939.3643.7044.9645.8146.4346.9347.5848.2148.8449.4650.0850.68
    Operating Costs575.00548.00948.001311.001581.451879.362169.242450.682743.643112.683531.364006.364545.255156.625850.23
    Operating Profit90.00218.00715.00851.001227.611534.901833.912124.212426.382824.893287.713825.094448.885172.796012.71
    EBITDA142.00302.00902.001102.001560.891945.012318.772681.643059.363555.874131.524798.765571.986467.817505.44
    EBITDA Margin21.3539.4354.2450.9755.5756.9757.9258.6259.1859.8960.5961.2861.9562.6263.27
    EBITDA Costs523.00464.00761.001060.001248.161469.251684.381893.252110.662381.702687.563032.693422.143861.604357.50
    Revenue665.00766.001663.002162.002809.053414.264003.154574.895170.025937.576819.077831.458994.1210329.4111862.94
    FCF-1297.00-410.00633.0092.001061.011589.892104.512604.143124.213812.144610.915537.346610.727853.249290.38
    FCF to Revenue-195.04-53.5238.064.2637.7746.5752.5756.9260.4364.2067.6270.7173.5076.0378.31
    Revenue less FCF1962.001176.001030.002070.001748.051824.381898.641970.752045.802125.432208.162294.112383.412476.182572.56
    Capex to Revenues-168.72-41.91-8.12-28.35-8.01-2.770.813.415.508.1110.6513.1215.5217.8620.13

    BRITAIN Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    RIO AURio Tinto LtdBRITAIN 93231.2210.4711.755.155.72.187.248.332.5423.812.97
    RIO LNRio Tinto PLCBRITAIN 93227.068.789.845.025.552.18848.332.1323.811.05
    AGL SJAnglo American PLCBRITAIN 34394.849.789.844.454.41.184.0334.111.4114.38-4.73
    AAL LNAnglo American PLCBRITAIN 34334.769.759.824.444.391.184.0434.111.4114.38-4.55
    CRDA LNCroda International PLCBRITAIN 8505.0426.9725.9117.4716.814.641.7829.046.8625.26-3.96
    JMAT LNJohnson Matthey PLCBRITAIN 6733.1714.612.049.998.820.572.726.492.3316.55-4.94
    KAZ LNKAZ Minerals PLCBRITAIN 3132.286.586.714.864.91.451.4854.211.5930.49-33.75
    POG LNPetropavlovsk PLCBRITAIN 723.4521.917.826.54.281.03028.291.186.1215.03
    PAF LNPan African Resources PLCBRITAIN 358.436.4413.375.054.061.18034.381.3322.6340.35
    GGP LNGreatland Gold PLCBRITAIN 177.27-----0-12.07-76.01-15.88
    TSG LNTrans-Siberian Gold PLCBRITAIN 78.93------#????!--123.06
    SRB LNSerabi Gold PLCBRITAIN 65.6813.947.963.422.41.11-29.27-768.92
    AAU LNAriana Resources PLCBRITAIN 42.8410.3310.3311.869.057.5-65.3-13.1813.33
    VAST LNVast Resources PLCBRITAIN 36.17----1.39--3.01--35.21
    ALTN LNAltyn PLCBRITAIN 21.36---3.64--#????!--17.04
    GDP LNGoldplat PLCBRITAIN 14.3-21.8310.365.020.3102.730.31-13.14-4.31
    XTR LNXtract Resources PLCBRITAIN 5.96------#????!--49.29
    PXOG LNProspex Oil and Gas PlcBRITAIN 4.33------#????!---42.22
    ECR LNECR Minerals PLCBRITAIN 4.12------#????!---21.72
    PGIL RMPolyus Gold International LtdBRITAIN #N/A Field Not Applicable---#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable66.67#N/A Field Not Applicable-#N/A N/A
    REX LNRexam LtdBRITAIN ------#????!--#N/A N/A
    ACA LNAcacia Mining PLCBRITAIN ------34.91-7.5114.01
    PGD LNPatagonia Gold PLCBRITAIN ------#????!--#N/A N/A
    GEO LNGeorgian Mining CorpBRITAIN ------#????!--#N/A N/A
    KEM LNKemin Resources PLCBRITAIN ---------#N/A N/A
    AVM LNAvocet Mining PLCBRITAIN ---------#N/A N/A
    OTC LNOrtac Resources LtdBRITAIN #N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#????!#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security
    TETH LNTethyan Resources PLCBRITAIN ---------#N/A N/A
    ORE LNOrogen PLCBRITAIN #N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#????!#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security
    LION LNLionsgold LtdBRITAIN ------#????!--#N/A N/A

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountry Market Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    BHP AUBHP Billiton LtdAUSTRALIA 122817.9817.2913.067.15.773.094.6150.783.0916.152.76
    LIN GRLinde AGGERMANY 120416.66#N/A Field Not Applicable27.416.850#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable26.95#N/A Field Not Applicable4.549.66
    AI FPAir Liquide SAFRANCE 71483.3126.5125.34-13.352.2----12.64
    VALE3 BZVale SABRAZIL 62706.9512.177.524.44.431.70.3943.991.428.96-7.55
    VALE5 BZVale SABRAZIL 62706.95--4.44.431.7-43.99-8.96#N/A N/A
    BAS GRBASF SEGERMANY 61289.4216.0614.629.28.70.925.313.51.4513.49-2.05
    ECL USEcolab IncUNITED STATES 59755.9435.3531.9420.319.033.990.8921.846.8219.7513.93
    APD USAir Products & Chemicals IncUNITED STATES 56495.927.0326.9915.4414.674.12.0636.184.4216.0620.72
    GMKN RMMMC Norilsk Nickel PJSCRUSSIA 54190.8511.589.78.16.884.166.7556.8415.89135.6818.74
    MNOD LIMMC Norilsk Nickel PJSCRUSSIA 54088.311.569.68004.156.7656.8415.86135.6818.58
    SHW USSherwin-Williams Co/TheUNITED STATES 54042.4431.6925.0922.1418.442.090.7716.1813.0639.2525.64
    4063 JPShin-Etsu Chemical Co LtdJAPAN 51689.3912.7817.935.378.583.262.1633.961.5712.8335.32
    GLEN LNGlencore PLCSWITZERLAND 40970.0217.7714.16.726.240.196.215.171.014.03-18.62
    914 HKAnhui Conch Cement Co LtdCHINA 40212.598.288.535.325.531.83430.852.0226.6211.22
    DD USEI du Pont de Nemours & CoUNITED STATES 39261.5325.4614.0531.5810.071.431.999.41.160.73-8.62
    NEM USNewmont Mining CorpUNITED STATES 36764.934.5123.4210.838.523.781.9540.211.535.3320.53
    DOW USDow Chemical Co/TheUNITED STATES 36142.415.8213.8221.417.04-3.846.33-5.91-2.74
    ABX CNBarrick Gold CorpCANADA 35123.1943.8328.34.968.982.181.0890.581.5427.3531.74
    CRG GRCRH PLCIRELAND 30639.2416.3615.5000.992.114.571.7410.69.95
    SCCO USSouthern Copper CorpPERU 30350.2919.3917.859.799.34.164.1449.594.3923.39-3.88
    PPG USPPG Industries IncUNITED STATES 28411.052218.0914.3911.861.621.4816.22--8.37
    LYB USLyondellBasell Industries NVUNITED STATES 27539.739.838.228.076.570.834.7615.633.9137.12-1.06
    APNT INAsian Paints LtdINDIA 25265.3866.3162.1340.4541.476.470.718.3515.0424.095.02
    BLL USBall CorpUNITED STATES 25261.0528.626.3516.8815.761.360.8514.037.0117.4828.13
    051910 KSLG Chem LtdSOUTH KOREA 25028.371.5233.03-9.640.85-----16.65
    AMS SJAnglo American Platinum LtdSOUTH AFRICA 23486.8618.4510.79-6.431.89----15.42
    DSM NAKoninklijke DSM NVNETHERLANDS 22747.0227.2822.14-12.631.35----16.09
    FMG AUFortescue Metals Group LtdAUSTRALIA 22621.086.135.63.593.351.474.860.191.8431.3955.37
    GMEXICOB MMGrupo Mexico SAB de CVMEXICO 21870.0813.1912.216.075.732.026.5846.071.8414.45-5.95
    FNV CNFranco-Nevada CorpCANADA 21833.2467.2753.433.5227.4426.720.8680.284.46.5419.67

    EV, Debt, Cash

    Fields2018
    EV5693.28
    Cash1469
    Debt3453
    Debt/Equity1088.2
    Pref Equity0
    Shares Out448.23
    minorities4

    Last Price

    Fields2018
    Last Price6.63
    Next DVD Ex Date16.04.2020
    DVD Announcement Date15.08.2019
    Last Ex Date03.10.2019

    CashflowSummary

    Fields201520162017201820192020
    Revenue665766166321622161.4442193.056
    Operating Profit90218715851938932
    PTP12220580642587.6606
    Net Income-10180476530474.125472.313
    EPS-0.020.41.071.181.0080.988
    DPS0000.120.0980.101
    EBITDA14230290211021171.6841162.842
    BPS0.6962517221.1932159692.2267713162.3425361534.1665.103
    Capex-1122-321-135-613-991.6-679.5
    FCF-1297-41063392-366.231-12.082
    EV TO T12M EBIT32.7421.2910.445.915.915.91
    EV/EBITDA20.7515.378.284.564.864.9
    CUR RATIO2.522.322.392.332.332.33

    Ratios

    Fields201520162017201820192020
    Market Cap3132.283132.283132.283132.283132.283132.28
    PE RATIO-11.0212.15.956.586.71
    EV/EBITDA20.7515.378.284.564.864.9
    P/S1.012.571.43.251.451.43
    DIVIDEND YIELD0001.771.481.52
    EBITDA Margin21.3539.4354.2450.9754.210.42
    P/B2.163.75.432.891.591.3
    ROE-0.9941.5558.5149.8830.4921.9
    6 month return-33.75-33.75-33.75-33.75-33.75-33.75