1 Midlincoln
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Key Info

Cia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais-COPASA Web - www.copasa.com.br

Tel - 55-31-3250-2015

Next Reporting Date - 30.03.2020

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Water Utilities Sector Link to Midlincoln Rural Investment Banking Ideas

From Water into Utilities Sector

Heating, Water, ElectrInstallation and Repair


Rural Investment Banking Craft News

  • Quad Cities COVID-19 Coalition: Local drinking water remains safe ... KWQC-TV6
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  • £4MILLION BATHING WATER PROGRAMME IN SHANKLIN NOW COMPLETE Island Echo
  • CVWD says tap water is safe to drink Coastal View News

    Cia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais-COPASA

    Utilities

    BRAZIL


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    5.92%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    8.77%

    Cost of Debt

    8.77%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    0.86

    Current Market Cap mln$

    1,188.37

    Net Debt mln$

    702.92

    WACC Estimate

    10.22%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    9.38

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    FCF44.40107.14159.3260.3986.2895.69115.09134.83156.23179.82205.30232.81262.48294.45328.89
    FCF to Revenue3.809.2011.754.637.047.608.689.6610.6211.6112.5813.5414.4915.4316.36
    Capex to Revenues-15.11-10.15-11.70-14.65-12.90-12.91-12.94-12.96-12.99-13.01-13.04-13.07-13.09-13.12-13.14
    Revenue less FCF1123.921057.501196.121244.011138.971162.601211.331260.911314.661369.641426.921486.601548.781613.551681.03
    Net Margin3.0810.7712.9512.249.1710.2812.4014.3516.2518.1520.0121.8223.6025.3327.02
    Revenue Less Capex1344.851282.881514.031495.531383.281420.771498.051576.691661.951751.121845.071944.072048.372158.282274.08
    Capex-176.53-118.24-158.59-191.13-158.03-162.48-171.63-180.95-191.06-201.66-212.85-224.66-237.12-250.27-264.16
    Pretax Margin-0.7314.8917.5415.4510.7912.6616.2319.5022.7025.7828.7431.5834.3136.9339.44
    Net Income Costs1132.351039.261179.861144.711112.931128.931161.921195.481231.871268.231305.671344.201383.881424.731466.78
    Pretax Costs1176.85991.221117.741102.881093.061098.981111.171123.581137.041150.011163.141176.411189.841203.421217.15
    Operating Margin8.2119.8222.1119.4716.6618.0520.6923.1125.4827.8130.0632.2434.3536.4038.38
    Operating Profit95.96230.83299.73254.00204.19227.14274.46 322.61374.81430.84490.60554.31622.20694.49771.46
    PTP-8.53173.42237.70201.52132.18159.31215.24272.15333.85399.44469.09543.00621.42704.59792.77
    Net Income35.97125.38175.58159.68112.31129.36164.49200.25239.01281.22326.56375.21427.37483.28543.14
    EBITDA Margin22.5534.6235.1531.4730.4031.4233.3735.1636.9038.6340.3141.9443.5345.0846.58
    Operating Costs1072.36933.801055.711050.401021.061031.151051.961073.131096.081118.621141.621165.101189.061213.511238.46
    Revenue1168.321164.641355.441304.401225.251258.291326.411395.731470.891549.461632.221719.411811.251908.002009.92
    EBITDA Costs904.87761.46879.01893.89852.77862.90883.79905.05928.10950.91974.28998.221022.761047.891073.64
    EBITDA263.45403.18476.43410.51372.48395.39442.62490.68542.79598.55657.94721.19788.50860.11936.28

    BRAZIL Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    ELET3 BZCentrais Eletricas Brasileiras SABRAZIL 9112.187.116.889.46.971.613.8631.80.636.74-44.81
    ELET6 BZCentrais Eletricas Brasileiras SABRAZIL 9112.187.327.099.46.971.614.1931.80.656.74-45.36
    CPFE3 BZCPFL Energia SABRAZIL 7189.4414.3111.869.498.071.041.5720.193.1523.24-20.82
    SBSP3 BZCia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao PauloBRAZIL 7077.8712.412.767.047.012.182.0840.891.6113.47-14.33
    CPLE6 BZCia Paranaense de EnergiaBRAZIL 3540.489.098.726.476.321.113.6326.290.9711.347.97
    CMIG4 BZCia Energetica de Minas GeraisBRAZIL 3160.045.346.626.595.990.636.218.280.9417.05-35.82
    ENEV3 BZEneva SABRAZIL 2326.1624.4616.8610.359.653.69048.11.647.913.33
    ENBR3 BZEDP - Energias do Brasil SABRAZIL 2249.129.9912.286.96.720.651.7719.141.4415.07-19.12
    CESP6 BZCia Energetica de Sao PauloBRAZIL 2042.99.1543.0613.6111.44.2-54.921.4916.33-8.33
    TAEE11 BZTransmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica SABRAZIL 2026.8410.7211.0512.2911.144.975.5261.942.1821.09-13.37
    CSMG3 BZCia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais-COPASABRAZIL 1188.378.087.155.074.581.24.1635.550.8711.13-41.91
    GETI4 BZAES Tiete SABRAZIL ------68.57-30na
    MPXE3 BZEneva SABRAZIL ------48.1-7.9na
    TBLE3 BZEngie Brasil Energia SABRAZIL na-10.34-nana51.78na34.71na

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountry Market Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    NEE USNextEra Energy IncUNITED STATES 108335.2832.0924.4416.714.244.922.0651.673.210.590.03
    D USDominion Energy IncUNITED STATES 65607.0514.7217.7520.0912.053.54.4333.662.345.460.04
    DUK USDuke Energy CorpUNITED STATES 62869.4118.0216.4912.911.442.491.0440.91.498.36-7.16
    ENEL IMEnel SpAITALY 61396.5711.3910.277.036.740.76.1122.561.7114.17-15.96
    IBE SMIberdrola SASPAIN 58889.991714.2210.569.371.284.0127.731.458.67-9.34
    SO USSouthern Co/TheUNITED STATES 56600.1721.3516.9610.6611.651.913.8653.122.5518.15-9.54
    AEP USAmerican Electric Power Co IncUNITED STATES 42788.1923.5819.7614.0411.862.272.8735.232.379.92-5.67
    EXC USExelon CorpUNITED STATES 35267.4614.6711.68.228.141.213.1829.481.379.32-22.95
    XEL USXcel Energy IncUNITED STATES 35068.8824.0523.9712.5812.662.182.5536.932.5210.785.83
    3 HKHong Kong & China Gas Co LtdHONG KONG 31375.3729.7528.1825.924.565.942.4926.623.712.59-7.3
    WEC USWEC Energy Group IncUNITED STATES 31360.525.7626.5817.0415.972.852.5632.742.8811.48.12
    SRE USSempra EnergyUNITED STATES 30140.3127.0214.9816.6612.062.482.7638.932.1411.81-22.72
    ED USConsolidated Edison IncUNITED STATES 29395.6120.7119.8311.6210.741.933.2735.331.677.73-2.12
    EDF FPElectricite de France SAFRANCE 29350.15.999.75.34.250.63.3221.160.6610.04-18.4
    2 HKCLP Holdings LtdHONG KONG 25240.1144.5116.7916.8110.392.453.7618.421.964.34-0.89
    EOAN GRE.ON SEGERMANY 24191.1912.5812.029.577.210.635.6315.472.521.33-7.54
    AWK USAmerican Water Works Co IncUNITED STATES 23217.2532.5633.3418.0816.74.751.5948.533.6310.366.42
    FE USFirstEnergy CorpUNITED STATES 22299.0418.9616.5112.45111.643.1534.13.7713.24-12.93
    PEG USPublic Service Enterprise Group IncUNITED STATES 22296.3218.1113.0413.499.42.713.1833.951.9711.49-26.98
    PPL USPPL CorpUNITED STATES 21053.4514.6410.9612.089.742.564.653.032.1214.17-9.83
    ETR USEntergy CorpUNITED STATES 20557.8710.4918.3512.0311.041.423.0633.432.3313.02-8.87
    EIX USEdison InternationalUNITED STATES 19309.2114.6911.813.18.041.463.2830.312.0510.81-24.88
    AEE USAmeren CorpUNITED STATES 18735.1722.9321.8612.2811.232.532.539.732.3510.55-1.74
    DTE USDTE Energy CoUNITED STATES 18526.6120.6314.5513.8910.321.42.9624.242.1410.67-25.36
    CMS USCMS Energy CorpUNITED STATES 17711.4125.2523.3613.8312.382.042.4332.753.5613.920.82
    FTS CNFortis Inc/CanadaCANADA 17443.9621.1619.7711.6612.082.33.4449.781.4810.4-8.36
    384 HKChina Gas Holdings LtdHONG KONG 16224.2416.931314.6611.072.681.5920.014.0825.79-18.31
    SSE LNSSE PLCBRITAIN 15472.888.7814.159.7311.680.478.2131.522.6632.27-1.05
    RWE GRRWE AGGERMANY 14950.331.8312.939.684.290.872.9313.070.9966.18-17.52
    TNB MKTenaga Nasional BhdMALAYSIA 14920.3316.6511.847.567.431.533.7736.111.37.82-17.55

    EV, Debt, Cash

    Fields2019
    EV1891.29
    Cash122.29
    Debt912.43
    Debt/Equity63.6
    Pref Equity0
    Shares Out126.39
    minorities0

    Last Price

    Fields2019
    Last Price9.38
    Next DVD Ex Datena
    DVD Announcement Date31.10.2019
    Last Ex Date25.09.2019

    CashflowSummary

    Fields201620172018201920202021
    Revenue1164.637921355.442361304.3987961013.3521085.3351239.829
    Operating Profit230.834463299.7339652253.9955252235.481273.795285.201
    PTP173.4157162237.6973653201.5190042202.885229.918255.374
    Net Income125.3796272175.5827547159.6846081147.545163.185177.318
    EPS1.0271209061.3852574491.2633874631.1841.3381.441
    DPS0.5038856220.3981.0140.967
    EBITDA403.1767616476.4314256410.5054281360.231398.673450.254
    BPS14.4799773514.9157034312.690282212.19312.50812.882
    Capex-118.2393929-158.5852157-191.1284972-157.132-202.361-128.663
    FCF107.1396134159.319267260.39138012-102.656-165.707221.196
    EV TO T12M EBIT9.258.5711.7611.7611.7611.76
    EV/EBITDA5.35.397.275.074.584.47
    CUR RATIO1.521.361.391.391.391.39

    Ratios

    Fields201620172018201920202021
    Market Cap1188.371188.371188.371188.371188.371188.37
    PE RATIO10.259.8213.448.087.157.31
    EV/EBITDA5.35.397.275.074.584.47
    P/S1.11.641.271.21.121.12
    DIVIDEND YIELD--2.974.1610.69.19
    EBITDA Margin34.6235.1531.4735.550.2536.32
    P/B0.770.881.250.870.851.08
    ROE7.499.29.2811.1311.8911.82
    6 month return-41.91-41.91-41.91-41.91-41.91-41.91