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Key Info

Ambuja Cements Ltd Web - www.ambujacement.com

Tel - 91-22-4066-7000

Next Reporting Date - 20.02.2020

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    Ambuja Cements Ltd

    Materials

    INDIA


    DCF Model Assumptions

    Risk Free Rate

    2.00%

    Country Equity Risk Premium

    6.00%

    Cost of Debt

    4.21%

    Cost of Debt

    4.21%

    Long Term Growth

    2.00%

    Beta Assumption

    1.47

    Current Market Cap mln$

    5,678.03

    Net Debt mln$

    -165.34

    WACC Estimate

    11.02%

    Ordinary Current Price $

    2.85

    DCF Model

    DCF20152016201720182019F2020F2021F2022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F
    FCF to Revenue12.3210.7510.062.845.915.244.714.283.943.503.062.612.171.721.27
    Capex to Revenues-6.64-4.55-4.61-4.25-4.09-3.91-3.76-3.64-3.54-3.42-3.30-3.18-3.06-2.93-2.81
    Net Margin8.615.706.428.947.337.347.347.347.347.357.357.357.357.367.36
    Pretax Margin12.509.9911.7211.2111.0410.9810.9410.9110.8810.8410.8110.7710.7410.7010.67
    Operating Margin9.728.5611.1711.0110.8711.0511.1811.2911.3811.4911.6111.7211.8311.9412.05
    EBITDA Margin16.4315.8316.3415.4415.7515.7015.6615.6215.6015.5615.5315.4915.4615.4215.39
    Revenue1464.302990.993628.193809.744651.305556.026599.397747.429022.9110606.0912467.0514654.5317225.8420248.3123801.11
    EBITDA Costs1223.742517.473035.363221.583918.604683.715566.086536.957615.628955.5410531.2012384.0814562.9717125.2220138.28
    EBITDA240.55473.53592.83588.16732.70872.311033.311210.471407.291650.551935.852270.452662.873123.093662.83
    Operating Costs1321.972734.933222.763390.404145.484942.355861.346872.517995.969387.0611020.1812937.4215188.2117830.5820932.67
    Operating Profit142.33256.06405.43419.34505.82613.67738.05874.911026.961219.031446.871717.122037.632417.732868.45
    Pretax Costs1281.302692.123202.853382.764138.014945.825877.436902.48 8041.359455.9911119.4913075.6315375.9018080.8321261.62
    PTP183.00298.87425.35426.98513.29610.20721.96844.94981.561150.101347.561578.901849.942167.482539.50
    Net Income Costs1338.292820.373395.163468.994310.295148.476115.107178.698360.379827.0311550.9913577.3815959.2618758.9922049.88
    Net Income126.01170.62233.03340.75341.02407.56484.30568.73662.54779.05916.061077.161266.581489.321751.24
    Revenue Less Capex1561.593127.113795.403971.844841.585773.056847.268029.239342.4210968.7712878.2315120.0917752.2220842.5524470.85
    Capex-97.29-136.11-167.21-162.10-190.28-217.03-247.87-281.81-319.51-362.68-411.18-465.55-526.38-594.24-669.74
    Revenue less FCF1283.922669.543263.303701.654376.635264.656288.767415.608667.5510235.0312085.9914271.6816852.6419900.3523499.23
    FCF180.38321.45364.89108.09274.67291.37310.63331.82355.36371.05381.06382.86373.20347.96301.88

    INDIA Comparables

    tickercompanycountryMarket Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    APNT INAsian Paints LtdINDIA 25265.3866.3162.1340.4541.476.470.718.3515.0424.095.02
    UTCEM INUltraTech Cement LtdINDIA 17985.2745.0732.5119.215.43.550.2918.463.878.89-0.46
    JSTL INJSW Steel LtdINDIA 9760.589.2219.935.878.380.991.422.972.0224.33-24.04
    SAUD LISteel Authority of India LtdINDIA 8261.05#N/A Field Not Applicable-6.4-#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable14.97#N/A Field Not Applicable6.130.35
    TATA INTata Steel LtdINDIA 6945.825.815.375.48.210.482.519.150.9115.71-29.39
    TTST LITata Steel LtdINDIA 6862.5#N/A Field Not Applicable-5.4-#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable19.15#N/A Field Not Applicable15.71-30.97
    HNDL INHindalco Industries LtdINDIA 5993.38.338.885.455.910.420.58120.89.78-3.16
    ACEM INAmbuja Cements LtdINDIA 5678.0319.9918.738.57.781.51.1517.131.688.49-15.61
    ACC INACC LtdINDIA 3743.9119.7317.569.348.531.960.9715.732.3512.48-6.04
    JSP INJindal Steel & Power LtdINDIA 2730.37--6.736.380.74021.420.54-5.24-37.36
    DGM INDeccan Gold Mines LtdINDIA 30.71-----0-5-5.53-34.06
    ATRI INShirpur Gold Refinery LtdINDIA 4.083.15-10.27-0.0701.280.196.12-60.55
    SESA INVedanta LtdINDIA #N/A Field Not Applicable-4.750#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable26.34#N/A Field Not Applicable11.04#N/A N/A
    VED LNVedanta Resources PLCINDIA ----0.18-26.86--#N/A N/A

    International Comparables

    tickercompanycountry Market Cap
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2019
    PE RATIO
    2020
    EV/EBITDA
    2019
    EV/EBITDA
    2020
    P/S
    2019
    DIVIDEND YIELD
    2019
    EBITDA Margin
    2019
    P/B
    2019
    ROE
    2019
    6 month return
    2019
    BHP AUBHP Billiton LtdAUSTRALIA 122817.9817.2913.067.15.773.094.6150.783.0916.152.76
    LIN GRLinde AGGERMANY 120416.66#N/A Field Not Applicable27.416.850#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable26.95#N/A Field Not Applicable4.549.66
    RIO AURio Tinto LtdBRITAIN 93231.2210.4711.755.155.72.187.248.332.5423.812.97
    RIO LNRio Tinto PLCBRITAIN 93227.068.789.845.025.552.18848.332.1323.811.05
    AI FPAir Liquide SAFRANCE 71483.3126.5125.34-13.352.2----12.64
    VALE3 BZVale SABRAZIL 62706.9512.177.524.44.431.70.3943.991.428.96-7.55
    VALE5 BZVale SABRAZIL 62706.95--4.44.431.7-43.99-8.96#N/A N/A
    BAS GRBASF SEGERMANY 61289.4216.0614.629.28.70.925.313.51.4513.49-2.05
    ECL USEcolab IncUNITED STATES 59755.9435.3531.9420.319.033.990.8921.846.8219.7513.93
    APD USAir Products & Chemicals IncUNITED STATES 56495.927.0326.9915.4414.674.12.0636.184.4216.0620.72
    GMKN RMMMC Norilsk Nickel PJSCRUSSIA 54190.8511.589.78.16.884.166.7556.8415.89135.6818.74
    MNOD LIMMC Norilsk Nickel PJSCRUSSIA 54088.311.569.68004.156.7656.8415.86135.6818.58
    SHW USSherwin-Williams Co/TheUNITED STATES 54042.4431.6925.0922.1418.442.090.7716.1813.0639.2525.64
    4063 JPShin-Etsu Chemical Co LtdJAPAN 51689.3912.7817.935.378.583.262.1633.961.5712.8335.32
    GLEN LNGlencore PLCSWITZERLAND 40970.0217.7714.16.726.240.196.215.171.014.03-18.62
    914 HKAnhui Conch Cement Co LtdCHINA 40212.598.288.535.325.531.83430.852.0226.6211.22
    DD USEI du Pont de Nemours & CoUNITED STATES 39261.5325.4614.0531.5810.071.431.999.41.160.73-8.62
    NEM USNewmont Mining CorpUNITED STATES 36764.934.5123.4210.838.523.781.9540.211.535.3320.53
    DOW USDow Chemical Co/TheUNITED STATES 36142.415.8213.8221.417.04-3.846.33-5.91-2.74
    ABX CNBarrick Gold CorpCANADA 35123.1943.8328.34.968.982.181.0890.581.5427.3531.74
    AGL SJAnglo American PLCBRITAIN 34394.849.789.844.454.41.184.0334.111.4114.38-4.73
    AAL LNAnglo American PLCBRITAIN 34334.769.759.824.444.391.184.0434.111.4114.38-4.55
    CRG GRCRH PLCIRELAND 30639.2416.3615.5000.992.114.571.7410.69.95
    SCCO USSouthern Copper CorpPERU 30350.2919.3917.859.799.34.164.1449.594.3923.39-3.88
    PPG USPPG Industries IncUNITED STATES 28411.052218.0914.3911.861.621.4816.22--8.37
    LYB USLyondellBasell Industries NVUNITED STATES 27539.739.838.228.076.570.834.7615.633.9137.12-1.06
    BLL USBall CorpUNITED STATES 25261.0528.626.3516.8815.761.360.8514.037.0117.4828.13
    051910 KSLG Chem LtdSOUTH KOREA 25028.371.5233.03-9.640.85-----16.65
    AMS SJAnglo American Platinum LtdSOUTH AFRICA 23486.8618.4510.79-6.431.89----15.42
    DSM NAKoninklijke DSM NVNETHERLANDS 22747.0227.2822.14-12.631.35----16.09

    EV, Debt, Cash

    Fields2018
    EV5512.69
    Cash913.5
    Debt5.69
    Debt/Equity0.34
    Pref Equity0
    Shares Out1985.65
    minorities750.64

    Last Price

    Fields2018
    Last Price2.85
    Next DVD Ex Date26.02.2020
    DVD Announcement Date18.10.2019
    Last Ex Date27.02.2019

    CashflowSummary

    Fields201520162017201820192020
    Revenue1464.2975842990.9906513628.1924653809.7396843785.1714025.159
    Operating Profit142.3276039256.0635251405.4288225419.3385934511.574563.541
    PTP182.9982041298.8702802425.3457998426.9768164550.611585.196
    Net Income126.0094516170.6157612233.0347819340.7545764288.445310.116
    EPS0.0812632130.0859171680.1173657070.1716076550.1430.152
    DPS0.0436731280.041678460.0553249370.0219447130.0330.037
    EBITDA240.5547072473.5253539592.8343626588.1578069648.435707.719
    BPS0.9992839811.4684663231.6304742231.616602261.7021.803
    Capex-97.28813111-136.1144067-167.2073277-162.0968165-344.281-393.722
    FCF180.3762567321.4466087364.8879381108.089415148.159118.574
    EV TO T12M EBIT29.1523.7519.915.2115.2115.21
    EV/EBITDA17.2512.8513.6110.858.57.78
    CUR RATIO2.021.121.251.481.481.48

    Ratios

    Fields201520162017201820192020
    Market Cap5678.035678.035678.035678.035678.035678.03
    PE RATIO38.9737.0435.6120.5219.9918.73
    EV/EBITDA17.2512.8513.6110.858.57.78
    P/S3.362.041.722.291.51.41
    DIVIDEND YIELD1.381.361.320.671.151.28
    EBITDA Margin16.4315.8316.3415.4417.130.14
    P/B3.072.072.6121.681.58
    ROE7.947.347.4910.128.498.45
    6 month return-15.61-15.61-15.61-15.61-15.61-15.61