Key Info

Toll Brothers Inc Web - www.tollbrothers.com

Tel - 1-215-938-8000

Next Reporting Date - 21.05.2019

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Toll Brothers Inc

Consumer Durables & Apparel

UNITED STATES

DCF Model Assumptions

Risk Free Rate

2.00%

Country Equity Risk Premium

6.00%

Cost of Debt

6.25%

Cost of Debt

6.25%

Long Term Growth

2.00%

Beta Assumption

0.49 Current Market Cap mln$

5,481.51

Net Debt mln$

2,826.42

WACC Estimate

5.39%

Ordinary Current Price $

37.56

DCF Model

DCF	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019F	2020F	2021F	2022F	2023F	2024F	2025F	2026F	2027F	2028F	2029F
Revenue	4171.25	5169.51	5815.06	7143.26	8348.64	9342.88	10336.87	11296.65	12276.98	13447.47	14729.56	16133.88	17672.09	19356.95	21202.45
EBITDA Costs	3700.82	4654.06	5142.51	6331.78	7394.12	8267.55	9140.77	9983.93	10845.14	11872.25	12996.64	14227.51	15574.95	17050.01	18664.77
EBITDA	470.43	515.45	672.54	811.48	954.52	1075.33	1196.10	1312.72	1431.84	1575.22	1732.92	1906.37	2097.14	2306.94	2537.69
EBITDA Margin	11.28	9.97	11.57	11.36	11.43	11.51	11.57	11.62	11.66	11.71	11.76	11.82	11.87	11.92	11.97
Operating Costs	3724.38	4677.18	5167.88	6357.04	7420.40	8294.54	9168.45	10012.29	10874.19	11901.74	13026.38	14257.29	15604.52	17079.05	18692.92
Operating Profit	446.87	492.33	647.18	786.22	928.24	1048.35	1168.42	1284.37	1402.79	1545.74	1703.18	1876.59	2067.57	2277.90	2509.53
Operating Margin	10.71	9.52	11.13	11.01	11.12	11.22	11.30	11.37	11.43	11.49	11.56	11.63	11.70	11.77	11.84
Pretax Costs	3635.69	4580.48	5000.75	6209.34	7230.86	8081.87	8932.68	9754.20	10593.32	11593.56	12688.25	13886.31	15197.49	16632.47	18202.95
PTP	535.56	589.03	814.31	933.92	1117.78	1261.01	1404.19	1542.45	1683.67	1853.91	2041.31	2247.57	2474.60	2724.48	2999.50
Pretax Margin	12.84	11.39	14.00	13.07	13.39	13.50	13.58	13.65	13.71	13.79	13.86	13.93	14.00	14.07	14.15
Net Income Costs	3784.87	4778.44	5269.95	6367.33	7438.09	8294.00	9149.69	9975.94	10819.87	11822.77	12918.62	14116.05	15424.47	16854.17	18416.39
Net Income	386.38	391.07	545.11	775.92	910.55	1048.88	1187.18	1320.72	1457.11	1624.71	1810.94	2017.83	2247.62	2502.78	2786.07
Net Margin	9.26	7.56	9.37	10.86	10.91	11.23	11.48	11.69	11.87	12.08	12.29	12.51	12.72	12.93	13.14
Revenue Less Capex	4180.70	5197.93	5843.93	7171.49	8388.15	9388.04	10387.68	11352.92	12338.82	13516.12	14805.75	16218.43	17765.90	19461.01	21317.87
Capex	-9.45	-28.43	-28.87	-28.23	-39.51	-45.16	-50.81	-56.27	-61.84	-68.64	-76.19	-84.55	-93.80	-104.06	-115.42
Capex to Revenues	-0.23	-0.55	-0.50	-0.40	-0.47	-0.48	-0.49	-0.50	-0.50	-0.51	-0.52	-0.52	-0.53	-0.54	-0.54
Revenue less FCF	4120.51	5047.05	4878.88	6569.09	7328.68	8108.19	8887.51	9640.01	10408.62	11312.48	12294.84	13362.50	14522.88	15784.02	17154.68
FCF	50.74	122.46	936.18	574.17	1019.96	1234.69	1449.36	1656.64	1868.37	2134.99	2434.72	2771.38	3149.21	3572.94	4047.78
FCF to Revenue	1.22	2.37	16.10	8.04	12.22	13.22	14.02	14.66	15.22	15.88	16.53	17.18	17.82	18.46	19.09

UNITED STATES Comparables

ticker	company	country	Market Cap 2019	PE RATIO 2019	PE RATIO 2020	EV/EBITDA 2019	EV/EBITDA 2020	P/S 2019	DIVIDEND YIELD 2019	EBITDA Margin 2019	P/B 2019	ROE 2019	6 month return 2019
NKE US	NIKE Inc	UNITED STATES	137622.39	34.10	28.96	23.97	20.89	3.52	0.97	14.61	16.77	40.67	22.16
VFC US	VF Corp	UNITED STATES	37190.87	25.00	22.13	17.92	16.29	2.69	1.92	15.92	8.48	38.20	20.05
DHI US	DR Horton Inc	UNITED STATES	16598.66	11.36	10.22	9.19	8.38	0.97	1.35	12.58	1.68	15.75	24.31
HAS US	Hasbro Inc	UNITED STATES	12786.14	22.77	20.17	14.06	12.73	2.58	2.68	19.10	6.92	31.06	10.98
RL US	Ralph Lauren Corp	UNITED STATES	10199.63	18.45	17.07	9.26	8.64	1.62	1.85	15.57	3.23	15.25	3.09
PVH US	PVH Corp	UNITED STATES	9771.29	10.99	12.46	8.63	8.70	1.32	0.14	12.70	1.41	13.14	9.76
UA US	Under Armour Inc	UNITED STATES	9508.38	57.43	36.55	23.52	18.08	1.77	-	7.67	4.03	7.29	21.45
MHK US	Mohawk Industries Inc	UNITED STATES	9466.26	11.67	10.50	7.85	7.32	0.92	-	15.94	1.19	10.20	13.63
PHM US	PulteGroup Inc	UNITED STATES	8776.93	9.39	8.99	7.53	7.31	0.89	1.38	14.70	1.63	18.11	33.45
WHR US	Whirlpool Corp	UNITED STATES	8553.33	9.20	8.16	8.02	7.63	0.42	3.51	9.79	3.22	29.39	31.56
HBI US	Hanesbrands Inc	UNITED STATES	6773.96	10.66	10.46	9.46	9.40	0.98	3.36	15.79	4.94	51.85	16.08
NWL US	Newell Brands Inc	UNITED STATES	5766.62	9.01	9.26	11.94	9.99	0.69	6.74	12.36	1.22	11.47	-10.73
TOL US	Toll Brothers Inc	UNITED STATES	5481.51	8.47	8.35	7.22	7.32	0.78	1.17	16.29	1.03	12.82	20.68
LEG US	Leggett & Platt Inc	UNITED STATES	5470.63	16.48	14.84	8.35	7.76	1.09	3.69	15.26	3.23	-	22.29
MAT US	Mattel Inc	UNITED STATES	4241.82	-	96.69	18.97	13.31	0.95	0.00	8.29	8.15	-18.35	-8.70
FOSL US	Fossil Group Inc	UNITED STATES	665.93	25.73	37.69	3.86	4.08	0.29	-	7.58	1.04	-1.84	-36.77
COH US	Coach Inc	UNITED STATES		-	-	-	-	-	-	20.25	-	21.41	#N/A N/A

International Comparables

ticker	company	country	Market Cap 2019	PE RATIO 2019	PE RATIO 2020	EV/EBITDA 2019	EV/EBITDA 2020	P/S 2019	DIVIDEND YIELD 2019	EBITDA Margin 2019	P/B 2019	ROE 2019	6 month return 2019
MC FP	LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE	FRANCE	194120.97	23.82	21.88	13.51	12.53	3.37	1.96	26.07	4.78	20.90	30.97
CDI FP	Christian Dior SE	FRANCE	87971.95	26.12	23.86	7.95	7.37	1.58	1.68	26.38	4.92	19.90	31.11
KER FP	Kering	FRANCE	74223.14	19.95	17.68	13.18	12.02	4.23	2.26	33.23	5.71	30.05	37.90
RMS FP	Hermes International	FRANCE	72580.27	43.09	39.23	24.76	22.75	9.83	0.92	37.61	9.81	24.48	21.01
6758 JP	Sony Corp	JAPAN	59252.84	6.42	11.63	-	4.91	0.76	0.75	-	-	-	-10.17
ADS GR	adidas AG	GERMANY	50878.71	23.78	21.10	13.75	12.46	1.95	1.64	13.75	6.18	27.98	9.50
LULU US	Lululemon Athletica Inc	CANADA	23095.61	38.03	38.76	22.03	23.11	4.06	0.00	25.19	13.23	31.80	31.50
6752 JP	Panasonic Corp	JAPAN	22398.21	9.80	10.48	4.39	4.57	0.31	3.13	8.25	1.28	13.72	-15.11
2313 HK	Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd	CHINA	19833.20	24.69	20.85	18.74	15.95	5.57	2.12	28.53	5.22	22.51	24.77
2020 HK	ANTA Sports Products Ltd	CHINA	19511.10	25.59	21.14	17.04	14.12	4.47	1.46	24.60	6.78	29.23	82.94
GRMN US	Garmin Ltd	SWITZERLAND	16271.80	22.85	21.75	14.76	14.05	4.61	2.62	26.04	3.65	16.61	41.24
TTAN IN	Titan Co Ltd	INDIA	14420.65	67.87	53.53	47.99	37.84	5.11	0.43	10.88	16.38	26.24	47.24
1928 JP	Sekisui House Ltd	JAPAN	11067.73	8.72	8.96	6.76	6.92	0.64	4.86	9.78	0.95	10.81	14.50
BRBY LN	Burberry Group PLC	BRITAIN	10653.07	24.70	24.11	13.46	12.88	3.04	2.15	20.81	5.79	22.88	18.03
066570 KS	LG Electronics Inc	SOUTH KOREA	10542.01	9.28	7.73	4.23	3.88	0.19	0.95	7.72	0.85	9.36	21.80
ELUXB SS	Electrolux AB	SWEDEN	7879.65	14.22	12.10	7.14	6.35	0.58	3.68	8.36	2.97	19.89	37.47
GIL CN	Gildan Activewear Inc	CANADA	7792.12	18.86	16.58	13.61	12.57	2.56	1.38	20.30	3.97	20.59	28.11
1169 HK	Haier Electronics Group Co Ltd	HONG KONG	7647.35	12.12	10.76	6.52	5.81	0.57	2.07	5.89	1.82	17.80	28.06
7731 JP	Nikon Corp	JAPAN	5556.31	10.54	13.69	3.08	3.70	0.86	3.88	15.05	1.01	9.85	-16.24
021240 KS	Coway Co Ltd	SOUTH KOREA	5497.71	15.91	14.55	8.37	7.81	2.17	4.25	28.20	5.03	33.85	3.00
1476 TT	Eclat Textile Co Ltd	TAIWAN	3912.56	25.14	22.03	17.41	15.53	4.00	2.69	22.79	6.54	27.05	29.22
PIKK RM	PIK Group PJSC	RUSSIA	3745.80	7.00	5.89	5.65	4.65	1.17	6.40	21.09	2.81	31.85	7.67
9904 TT	Pou Chen Corp	TAIWAN	3570.09	9.45	8.82	8.59	7.79	0.35	3.89	8.63	1.22	8.86	27.11
3998 HK	Bosideng International Holdings Ltd	HONG KONG	3011.18	24.02	18.98	13.37	10.53	1.98	2.95	13.86	1.98	7.58	109.46
9921 TT	Giant Manufacturing Co Ltd	TAIWAN	2631.82	26.07	21.27	15.20	12.96	1.25	2.38	9.11	3.61	15.13	74.64
1434 TT	Formosa Taffeta Co Ltd	TAIWAN	2007.43	14.15	14.74	13.36	12.80	1.33	5.48	11.71	0.73	5.40	12.40
ARCLK TI	Arcelik AS	TURKEY	1942.34	10.05	7.55	5.22	4.35	0.35	3.40	10.44	1.25	12.56	11.02
CYRE3 BZ	Cyrela Brazil Realty SA Empreendimentos e Participacoes	BRAZIL	1696.29	22.09	10.72	14.77	9.11	1.91	7.34	15.29	1.29	5.99	18.75
9914 TT	Merida Industry Co Ltd	TAIWAN	1648.40	21.98	19.03	21.97	19.43	1.75	2.74	7.78	3.61	16.25	49.86
MRVE3 BZ	MRV Engenharia e Participacoes SA	BRAZIL	1624.89	8.13	7.15	6.73	6.08	1.09	6.99	17.81	1.24	15.74	24.06

EV, Debt, Cash

Fields	2018
EV	8307.93
Cash	1182.20
Debt	3698.18
Debt/Equity	89.64
Pref Equity	0.00
Shares Out	146.16
minorities	8.71

Last Price

Fields	2018
Last Price	37.56
Next DVD Ex Date	11.07.2019
DVD Announcement Date	26.02.2019
Last Ex Date	11.04.2019

CashflowSummary

Fields	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Revenue	4171.248	5169.508	5815.058	7143.258	7067.867	7148.2
Operating Profit	446.87	492.325	647.183	786.216	776.833	725.333
PTP	535.562	589.027	814.311	933.916	891.071	872.357
Net Income	386.37785	391.06955	545.1111	775.92424	654.688	635
EPS	2.091887	2.222327	3.216241	5.031901	4.425	4.469
DPS	0	0	0.24	0.41	0.44	0.455
EBITDA	470.427	515.446	672.544	811.475	1151.167	1135.667
BPS	24.15001115	26.14175779	28.82347254	32.56774286	36.677	40.631
Capex	-9.447	-28.426	-28.872	-28.232	-25.86	-25.98
FCF	50.735	122.459	936.175	574.169	376.442	437.115
EV TO T12M EBIT	20.49	15.41	15.07	9.47	9.47	9.47
EV/EBITDA	19.46	14.72	14.50	9.17	7.22	7.32
CUR RATIO	3.59	3.06	3.49	3.57	3.57	3.57

Ratios

Fields	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Market Cap	5481.51	5481.51	5481.51	5481.51	5481.51	5481.51
PE RATIO	16.94	12.30	14.27	7.02	8.47	8.35
EV/EBITDA	19.46	14.72	14.50	9.17	7.22	7.32
P/S	1.52	0.89	0.72	1.28	0.78	0.77
DIVIDEND YIELD	0.00	0.00	0.52	1.22	1.17	1.21
EBITDA Margin	11.28	9.97	11.57	11.36	16.29	0.10
P/B	1.49	1.05	1.60	1.03	1.03	0.93
ROE	8.99	9.04	12.23	16.10	12.82	11.36
6 month return	20.68	20.68	20.68	20.68	20.68	20.68

Key Info

News

Results

Anual Revenue

Anual Profit

EBITDA

Production

Acquisitions

Important Reports

Select Equity Data Snapshot

Homebuilding Sector Link to Midlincoln Rural Investment Banking Ideas

From Souvenirs into Consumer Discretionary Sector

Mount Maple Souvenirs Cons. Cyclicals

Rural Investment Banking Craft News

Toll Brothers Inc

Consumer Durables & Apparel

UNITED STATES

DCF Model Assumptions

Risk Free Rate

2.00%

Country Equity Risk Premium

6.00%

Cost of Debt

6.25%

Cost of Debt

6.25%

Long Term Growth

2.00%

Beta Assumption

0.49

Current Market Cap mln$

5,481.51

Net Debt mln$

2,826.42

WACC Estimate

5.39%

Ordinary Current Price $

37.56

DCF Model

UNITED STATES Comparables

International Comparables

EV, Debt, Cash

Last Price

CashflowSummary

Ratios