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Midlincoln in the news

Ukraine Election Brings Market Triumph for Bonds: Russia Credit

MSCI SAR Preview

华尔街投行的难题:远离还是亲近俄罗斯?

Deposit Insurance Fund gets additional 2 bn$ for Crimea

Wall Street’s Ties to Putin Threatened as Sanctions Bite

Ukraine Crisis Nets Billions of Dollars for Kremlin

Moscow Bourse Weight Upped in MSCI 10/40

Upcoming MSCI 10-40 rebalancing

Russia Stocks Climb as Norilsk to Rosneft Gain on Ruble Weakness

Ulyukaev wants to speed up privatisation

俄股市70%自由流通股为外国人持有

Russian Central Bank is up for reorganisation of regional structure.

Masterbank mess could help Sberbank to get hold of infrastructure

Retailer Metro is moving closer to Moscow Exchange

Boeing 737 Crashes in Russian City of Kazan, Killing 50

Midlincoln View

Russian oil and gas sector, avoiding toilet paper shortage

it's not yet obvious, but developments in the Russian oil & gas sector such as emergence of state oil and gas companies, growing importance of Gazprom and especially of Rosneft could lead to further disbalances in Russian sector economics.

My favorite research piece back from 2011. Written following Emelianenko Monson fight and all the booing. Hugely timely notice of upcoming trouble.

Is Russia on the Path of Becoming a Frontier Market?

The same topic again - venezualisation of Russia.

Contact Sport of Russian M&A

What thoughts come to your mind when you hear that the key founding shareholder of Russian social network "Vkontakte" has been accused of ....

Looking for the Center of Financial Mass

If you try to estimate where the current center of financial mass is as a point on the surface of Earth — a weighted average of geographic coordinates of various stock exchanges weighted by the value traded at those exchanges — it’s 34.7 degrees of northern latitude and 23.9 degrees of eastern longitude. ...

Russia's Economic Epic

The world so far looks somewhat similar to last year. Most factors affecting the business environment and financial markets are similar to last year's. Global economic growth ...

Trends for 2012 and 2013 | The Moscow Times

In a world pictured as a big village, a country is probably pictured as house. Just like an old house, with its known and unknown problems, with parts undergoing renovation and new construction and parts where constant ...

Pussy Riot Verdict, What will the market say?

Market will most likely  be negatively  affected  by the sentence (read this article in Russian or translate)...

Privatization of the Pension System Delayed

In the ongoing discussion on the future of the Russian pension system's reform, some officials are offering to cancel investment or a private component of the pension and to retain only the basic component guaranteed ...

Trends on the Russian M&A Market: Theory vs. Practice

The start of 2012 was pretty gloomy for M&A bankers; 2011 had just finished on a very uncertain note, and politicians in Europe were unable to ...

A Pre-election Buy-Back

Read or translate this article which is in Russian on former VTB buyback

Will Fast Russian Companies Ever Emerge?

In 1999, we saw the economy strongly shifting away from oil and gas toward industrial and service sectors. Import substitution boomed, local production flourished, Internet businesses started ....

New IPOs Get Squeezed by the Size of Gazprom

First, I want to highlight the following statistics: Russia has only 26 companies in MSCI Russia index vs. MSCI South Africa 50 companies, MSCI India 73 companies, MSCI Brazil 78 companies, MSCI South ...

History of Russia's IPOs as Reflected in the MSCI Russia Index

Russia's stock market evolution is difficult, but the progress is unpreventable. It is reflected in the changing composition of Russia's benchmark MSCI Standard index, which spans 90 percent of Russia's .....

AvtoVAZ — an Ongoing Problem

Built in 1970 under Prime Minister Kosygin, AvtoVAZ played a major part in the collapse of the Soviet Union and is still a problem.

The Last Convergence Attempt – State Firms Must Focus on Profit and Dividends

Russia was on a straight course to liberalization of its property, when in the middle of the road it realized that property liberalization should be delayed and for a .....

Small Business Vanishes

There are all kinds of small business owners in Russia. Some of them operate clubs and restaurants, some run Western-style advertisement, IT or legal consulting business

The Future Landscape of the Russian Stock Market

The crisis will fade away one day. On that day, companies will start forecasting year-on-year earnings growth instead of growing declines. The stock market will survive, but its landscape is likely to change significantly.

Boosting Russia's Export Trade

When the crisis cracked down on the Russian economy last November -- the first remedy suggested by most of the economists was a diversification of economy.

Alchemists Sought Philosopher's Stone, Investors Prefer Gas

The stock market is all about information. Information and news are intangible things, like gases, in the air or space around us, mixing with other gases, changing their pressure and spread...

 

Weekly Publications

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June 19/2014 World Cup versus World War

Markets are less important for the next 3 weeks. Despite that it feels overall horrible and scary on global markets as US is prepared for further withdrawal from stimulus. Europe is in comatoze economic crisis chasing figments of growth. China is balancing on the edge of and is pushed into currency wars. India and Brazil are choking on stagflation.

July 11/2014 Charts and Datamine

Portuguese bond yields rise / Portuguese Equities Fall/OIL Price Technicals Point UP / Gold Price Surges on ME Instability /

ML GEMs May 27  Portfolio Performance

Since Last rebalancing on May 5 we have done well in  Brazil, China and SA and SK. On a relative terms Brazil and China. We have been less successful in Russia and India universes

Since inception on Feb 3 our strategy yielded good results in absolute terms China, Brazil, Russia and South Korea.  On the relative basis we are doing better than benchmark only in China and Russia. We are doing OK in South Korea, but we are doing poorly in India and Turkey. And we  still underperform by c.13% to MSCI GEM benchmark on relative basis.

Midlincoln Weekly May 26 - Econ/Politics/Stocks etc.

Russian Railways paid billions to secretive firms../A state-owned rail giant, run by an old friend of President Vladimir Putin, has awarded vast sums to contractors who disguise their ownership, a Reuters investigation has found..../Russia’s botched hospital operation .../Medical project helped fund 'Putin’s palace.../kraine must work with Russia: President candidate/.../Russian Prime Minister Medvedev Visits Crimea/.../Competing Visions for Russia's Economic Future/.../UPDATE 2-SocGen keeps faith with Russia investment/.../Actually, Russia's Population Isn't Shrinking/.../Russia-China Natural Gas Pipeline to Create New Global Price .../.../Lukoil Gains as Putin Pullback Eases Tension: Russia Overnight/.../Ukraine Crisis: Russia Debt Insurance Spikes to Three-Year High as .../.../ Or http://www.midlincoln.com/testjs/Countrypres.php?v=INdownload a PDF file for Russia

Datamine and Charts May 23

Iron Curtain Line for Russian stocks

Some signs of Chinese property bubble start bursting

Turkey focus on investment helps to heal wounds from shocks quickly

Key resistance for Indian stock market broken

Trubistan -  To the East of Byzantium

SA-shares perfect gold proxy

3 Chinese stocks that were down over 50% this year are up 200%+ in the last 5 years

Chocolate Time

Thailand stocks -pretty cool  despite coup

Notes From Midwest - Some gas for your sweatshop May 21

Now finally Russia is in long term gaseous relationships with China. The deal that took almost 20 years has only become possible amid Russia's route with europe and the west and that was probably the lever that made the deal possible.

From our point of view - Gazprom's CEO Alexey Miller for long time has been opposing the deal with China as he was concentrating on gas supplies to 500 mln europeans. Europe was Miller's key focus as he did not want to look anywhere else to sell his gas. The pricing issue was only an excuse for Miller to delay an agreement with China while he was focusing on building north route to Europe and preparing for south route.

Notes from Midwest -- Russia, Turkey, US search for transition of power mechanisms May 15

Current leaders in Turkey and in Russia came to power at approximately the same time, with the same sort of support coming from the US and from the US oriented elites. They both stayed in power for over 10 years, while it looks as if US examining power transition strategy for both leaders it used to support as fragile democratic institutes are at stake in both countries.

A glance back, shows that US always supported current Turkish and Russian leadership ever since the beginning.

Midlincoln GEMs Rebalancing May 6

We generally done okay and inline with our benchmark MSCI GEM Index, posting performance of c. -0.3% while MSCI GEM Index decline 0.2% in the same period.

We done well in China, Russia, S.Korea and Brazil where we outperformed respective benchmarks by 482bpts, 296bpts, 145 bpts and 32 btps respectively. We have done poorly in India, S Africa and Turkey

Econ and Politics May 5

Ukraine releases protesters; Prime Minister visits Odessa after blaze Russia's economy Ukraine situation has altered Russia investment risks -Norway ...Actually, Russia's Population..

Charts and Datamine May 2 Edition

Market is always wrong timing the FED/Gas price volatility is a bad leading indicator/Lower oil price as Saudis ramp up production to meet seasonal increase in demand/Ukraine age pyramid-broken symmetry/Raping of Europe/Ukraine bull markets/Uneasy job to promote Russia/China, Russia biggest underperformers in GEM equities/Spanish yields sustainable?

Midlincoln GEMs April 30

Overall since inception on Feb 3 we have done well in China and Russia. We have done OK in SK. We have done poorly in Brazil, India, Turkey and SA.

Since rebalancing on Apr 2, in relative terms we have done well in Russia and SK. We have done well in absolute terms

Weekly April 29 2014

Russian stocks suffered as Yandex, listed on NASDAQ, was attacked by high profile Russian politician with roots in KGB who linked US traded Russian internet company to US secret service. Some say that the motive behind an attack on Yandex is to push US traded company to list shares on the exchange in Moscow. While it is also possible that tycoon Alisher Usmanov, a businessman with closer links to Kremlin then recently sanctioned Timchenko, has been behind the move. Usmanov who started his career as a nominee holder of assets for Kremlin (e.g. he held 5% of Gazprom on behalf of Gazprom itself), owns Yandex competitor Mail.ru. While his recently grabbed another internet resource Vkontakte, while  the founder of that service was pushed out.

EconPolitics April 28

kraine crisis: US will expand sanctions on Russian power brokers...Arseny Yatseniuk, Ukraine Prime Minister, Says Russia Wants To ......Storm Clouds Strike Russian Economy as S&P Cuts Debt Rating...Ukraine situation has altered Russia investment risks -Norway ......Russia's population up by 800000 since 2010 - statistics...3 risks from the Ukraine crisis...Russian budget

Midlincoln GEMs April 24

Overall we have done well in China and  Russia. We have done poorly in Brazil, India, Turkey and SA

Since rebalancing, we have done well in Brazil and China

We have done well in Brazil and in China since last rebalancing....

Weekly April 23 2014  Sell in May is getting closer. Will the market sell off this time?

Markets are fairly resilient so far this year. Developed and emerging markets are flat overall YTD as measured by Dow Jones and MSCI GEM indexes. While some emerging markets like  Turkey and India did pretty well rising c.8% at least in local currency terms.  

April 21  Midlincoln Econ and Politics

Russia US vice president heads to Ukraine after fragile truce shattered Ukrainian prime minister: Russia wants "to restore the Soviet Union" Ukraine backlash could result in 0% Russia GDP growth Neptune's Burnett adds peripheral banks ahead...

Apr 18 Datamine Average  S&P earnings growth  2Q 2007 to Now the lowest in this cycle. Inflation is zilch. Housing component is highest only  since 2008. DM energy stocks is the way to go on Emerging Markets

Weekly April 16 2014 We maintain our positive view on GEMs in the long run this year and also maintain our cautiously positive stance GEMs in the.

Econ Politics April 14

Hi, this is a initial stage version of our integral country product. It is still in the development mode - but we decided to flash the first version. Please click on links below to go to respective country...

April 8 Weekly- Emerging Markets strength at test

Mood is still upbeat on emerging markets, while Russia due to its ambition in Ukraine is seen as a drag.   Investors therefore are likely to focus their attention elsewhere e.g.  on Turkey  and Brazil.

Apr 4 Datamine

Ignore ADP/ Australia Stock Rally Shows China Link / Spanish Yields Approaching  US Treasuries/ Cash Kings Get Richer / Irone Ore Prices Down 18% YTD / This rally is compared to 1982 rally and 1987 crash

April 2 Portfolio Rebalancing

Russia New Shorts Rusal  /NovaTek OAO Old Shorts FGC UES JSC/ Inter RAO JSC/Rostelecom Removed Shorts RusHydro JSC /TMK OAO

Russia New Longs Tinkoff CS /Mobile Telesystems OJSC  Old Longs Gazpromneft/ Severstal OAO/ Moscow Exchange/ Removed Longs Yandex/MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC

April 1 Out of developed and into emerging markets

Markets are cheering as Russia decided to give Crimea back to Ukraine. While warren Buffett decided to lift its ban on investing into Russian stocks and bought some Rosneft.

But one a more serious note, it does look that the trade out of developed and into emerging markets stocks is gathering force.

March 26 Okay we have Vladimir but is there new Ruric

We reinstating our positive view on GEMs in the long run this year, after a period of volatility, while we take cautiously positive stance for GEMs in the short term. At this point it looks like Russia did let Ukraine go and join Europe while it got Crimea  instead.

US and European sanctions that put on the list people from Putin’s inner circle, though painful for these persons, do not matter much for Putin, and the rest of Russia, especially given that people affected have been targets of internal power struggles.

March 24 CRIMEa shift - Oligarchs no longer needed From the start - Putin was building an empire out of Russia. While his empire building was resting not on military might but on the creation of loyal elites. Putin had to create his elites in a fairly short time span. Corruption was an obvious way to aid elite creation under time pressure.

20 March Econ Politics 

his is a first version of our integral country product. It is still in the development mode - but we decided to flash the first version. Please click on links below to go to respective country page or...

March 13 Nagorno-Crimea Region

Investors don’t want to bet on what Putin is likely to do to Ukraine move in his army or not. They’d rather move their money out and bet on who is it going to be in WC finals Brazil, Argentina, Germany or Spain.

Mar 3 Russia - Ukraine fallout can open  Europe to central asian, middle eastern and US hydrocarbons.

No doubt that timing of the events in Ukraine had been planned to coincide with olympic games. It might be that Putin reaction to the events on Maidan after Olympics has also been anticipated.

Putin decided that he can  use the moment to take over Crimea a tiny peninsula in black sea - an ancient port, enclave of Russia during Soviets that was granted by Khrushchev to Ukraine in 1960s.

But the price might be to high for Russia. Putin might be manipulated into the route with Ukraine that will cause Russia significant loss of the hydrocarbon market share in Europe, that will be substituted with new supply.

Feb 23  Maidan Victory - The end of the Stalin's Soviet Project – Return of Leon Trotsky's Permanent Revolution.

Granada, Granada, Granada... This poem so familiar to every Soviet person, for its very musical 2 beat amphibrach, which at times ascends into 2 beat accentual verse so popular in English nursery rhymes, Mikhail Svetlov wrote in 1926....It has nothing directly to do with events in Spain. It was written 10 years before the outbreak of the civil war in Spain, and only distantly is connected to the Spanish civil war....While most of the text is cryptic...

Feb 17  Economist Futurist Cover

Emerging markets are stabilising as their central banks are coping with pressure.

India, Brazil, Turkey have managed to stay very close to the curve and moved in due time  when pressure on currency mounted and inflation surged.

Russian CB is slightly behind, unable to move aggressively on rates afraid of sinking the banking system.

Feb 11  Could emerging markets state companies’ debts be like  subprime

Emerging market normalisation is likely to continue.Things are slightly calmer on the emerging markets this week. Emerging markets have halted free fall.  Turkey rebound, Brazil inflation and ECB sticking to low rates policy has been a source of optimism for GEMs. Russian markets were additionally supported by Oilympics that despite lots of criticism proved so far a success.

Feb 3  What if BRICST become PIIGS

What if the time has come  and emerging markets are going to pay for developed market crisis?  

Years of printing of dollars, euro and yen helped to sustain crisis in the west. But soaring EM rates, depleting GEM reserves and depreciating currencies  signal that emerging markets could end up picking the check for DM normalisation.

January 27 Ukraine, second buying opportunity far away

In Russia stocks of exporters are somewhat supported as ruble succumbs to dollar but domestic stocks are under pressure. Turkey is still in pain as graft scandal still on.

South Africa shares are  weak as gold, platinum prices down and strike is planned for Platinum belt. Indian stocks are weaker ahead of monetary policy meeting while  steel stocks are unfavored and IT stocks decline.

January 21 Mildly positive start

A year did start slightly mad with record cold in the US,  Maidan square in Ukraine turning into Tahrir, US Navy Ships pooling towards Sochi to insure security during olympics (start Feb 7)., Bangkok is under emergency rule on protests and Zimbabwe’s Mugabe is very old and is likely to give up his power eventually.,

January 13 Looking for possible GEM returns on macro

We start examining opportunities for stocks in our focus countries.

For investors seeking dollar returns, the best equity risk premiums  are for China, Chile, South Africa. For Turkey, Russia and Poland, equity risk premiums are tiny, therefore we expect that stock markets will still remain unpopular vs. bonds. For India and Brazil the equity premium is most likely negative.

January 6 Corruption scandals are holding emerging markets back

A scandal in Turkey, suicide of chief of key state enterprise in China, booing of Zuma at Mandela funeral in South Africa, arrest of the key billionaire in Iran  and lots of corruption scandals in Russia where just recently another former KGB general that was supposed to oversee Sochi investing was fired from the presidential administration staff highlight a common problem for the emerging markets - that is middle class reaction to the possible corruption involving state officials and their pocket oligarchs. Corruption scandals lead to political instability and that knocks out bits and pieces from country risk.

December 30 Terrorism shows that Russians have enemies

Russians grief in mourning  over people who died in terrorist attacks. There are no answers to the question who is behind the terror attacks. No terror organisation claimed anything openly. Most people link the events to  olympiad, but there are other theories  abundant including bunch of conspiracy theories.

December 23  Doctor Sends Had-a-cough-ski to Germany for Rehab

Though holidays are almost here, markets are not calm. Holliday week is likely to be not easy for emerging markets.

China is tumbling as short term rates on the rise, investors fear crisis is near.

In SA Zuma booed at Mandela’s funeral amid corruption allegations.

Turkey tumbles amid corruption investigation and arrest of Halkbank executives

December 16 Wide diversification ahead of 2014

i think  that markets will perform something of a Christmas rally in the upcoming week but in this weekly i attempt to start thinking  of our investment outlook for 2014 with full document coming out later.

Investing becomes an odd process. Downgrade by a big 3 rating agency  is almost always a buying signal and vice versa. So was the US downgrade in 2011. ....

December 9   Remembering Mandela

In the 90ties world faced 2 huge transformations- fall of apartheid in South Africa and the  fall of the Soviet Union. On one occasion Nelson Mandela met with Boris Yeltsin in spring of 1999 in Moscow.  Moscow was lying in ruins of asian financial crisis when Yeltsin and Mandela met. wo great revolutionaries of the 20th century met 5 years after the fall of apartheid in South Africa and almost 8 years after the fall of Soviet Union... read more

December 2  LV - Louis Vuitton or Lenin Vladimir?

Russian politicos could probably be even thinking in terms of Soviet Union and Czech and 1968 if other things fail and Ukraine is astray and on its way to Europe.

At any rate if things take longer than Sochi Olympics, Russia is likely to become far more aggressive with its pressure in Ukraine.

The consumers sectors are also under pressure as giant Louis VuItton  suitcase installation is removed from red square. Some Russians wonder however what is abbreviature of LV stands for - it might be Lenin Vladimir whose is still rests on red square while Russians still undecided which one to worship.

November 25  Iranian Gold Likely to  Press on Prices

Oil price is likely to stay elevated as Israeli keep threatening Iran with the attack amid the country reached the nuclear deal that it will stop enriching uranium of 6 months. Also no new oil supply is expected from the deal while gold sales by Iran could increase.

November 20  We have good news from China, oh sorry, we have bad news from China.

Last week risk was supported by Chinese reform promise and promise of gradual liberalisation of yuan rate and credit rates in china. This week the credit crunch in china is in spotlight as well as actually in many other emerging as well as developed markets where rates are high due to pricing pressures such as China, Australia, Russia.

And if US rates are bound to increase, this will cause lots of leveraged players to go belly up.

November 11  2013 Nothing dies harder than a bad idea

DM stocks are somewhat supported while emerging market stocks are slumping as dollar strengthens, bonds weaken as US economy improves and tapering nears.

Iran deal can be damaging for the oil price, as the last bit of risk premium is knocked out from the price of oil with Iran reaching compromise with atomic energy agency.

European weaker economy as projected for 2014 can put stress again on peripheral parts of europe and Turkey as well.

November 4  2013  Its Europe’s turn in currency wars.

Quite intense week in terms of data. Europeans have their say in currency wars this week. The euro  is likely to  be weaker, dollar stronger and  risk appetite slightly smaller.

In Russia its a national unity day, which celebrates an event in history which lead to establishment of Romanov’s family. In the course of those historic events, Russians defeated Polish invaders and kicked them out from Russia.

October 28  2013  Oil is devil’s shit.

Instead of focusing on discussion of whatever Fed can do on Wednesday i would like to highlight the irony with developing the oil and gas sector in Russia.                           Staking anything at all on success of developing Russia's hydrocarbons sector could lead to scarcity of toilet paper in Moscow once again.

October 21  2013  Printing continues, default avoided, European crisis is over, China is growing - what else You Need? Another FOMC meeting in focus.

Bunch of stats will be released in the US this week and the next which were delayed due to shutdown. Nominal per capital GDP highlighted for former CIS countries.

October 14  2013 US events unfolding -- what is it a move in currency wars or real default possibility

Its the second week of 3q results season with Google, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America results coming up. Adding to the disturbance could be the beginning of Detroit bankruptcy hearings on Tuesday. This time, emerging markets are positively highlighted on the back of US debt ceiling debates as well as possible US default or downgrade.  The major source of optimism for emerging markets is US dollar ...

October 7  2013 From Russia into Venezuela and Iran

This summer MSCI announced its decision to reclassify the MSCI Qatar and MSCI UAE Indices from Frontier Markets to Emerging Markets and the MSCI Morocco Index from Emerging Markets to Frontier Markets...

September 30 2013 Possible US Debt Downgrade, Putin’s fifth term and lower oil price

Turkish stocks looks especially well set if oil price declines, but global growth will feed through into emerging markets. Investors are likely to be picking up Turkey in this backdrop...

September 16 2013 Syria, Oil Price, Fed taper

This week is likely to be price negative for risk assets as risk appetite recedes as Fed prepares to taper...

September 9 2013 Moscow Election, Syria, CBR cut?

A vote on Syria can  press on the negative side  while Chinese data, higher oil price and possible rate cut could press on the upside. The result is somewhat neutral to small positive stock performance for Russian stocks...

September 2 2013 Come Back on the Labor Day?

One popular investors tactics is to sell in May and then to come back and buy on the labor day.  This year it could have worked would Fed not decided to taper liquidity and would middle east tensions not escalate...

August 26 2013 Syria, Uralkali and possibly slower US and capital flight from GEM.?

As it look most of the numbers coming out this week are to signal weak set of economic inputs therefore but not bad enough for the Fed to delay tapering of stimulus which is a worst combination and is likely to imply weaker stock markets...

August 19 2013 Will bonds money make it into equities?

They should.  Gold strength implies investors are searching for a path away from fixed income into gold e.g. Their next step could be going for equities on a much wider scale, as gold investing is sort of dull...

August 12 2013 Possible China soft landing, better DM growth and help from weak ruble

Russia is stagnating as result of weaker global backdrop for the emerging markets but mainly because of the  increased regulation by the government which decided to drive the economy in manual shift mode back in 2009 and can’t switch into automatic mode since then.  We are almost back in soviet economic setup where the achievement of certain economic sector was primarily the  achievement the respective sector minister....

August 5 2013 Travel Warnings, Elections Season Highlighted

Iran in the next  10 years with its 80 mln people and 1.2% population growth rate will add another 10 mln in population and is set to overcome  Germany in population. With its natural resource base e.g. Iran has largest gas reserves in the world, Iran can become an influential regional power, slightly less populous than Egypt and a lot less populous than Pakistan, but due to its natural resource base - much more influential and probably the most influential country in north Africa, central asia and the middle east.

July 29 2013 Atlass is almost forgotten

China's government has ordered companies to close factories in 19 industries. The affected industries include steel, cement, copper and glass. Politburo asked panies to close outright some 1400 plants are about to be shut down. That could potentially improve global prices in material sectors that were badly hurt by CHinese overproduction. On the other hand measure is likely to affect badly Chinese  GDP and some commentators are now talking about 3% average growth for China for the next 5 years. Ouch!

July 22 2013 Buy Before Elections or After?

International markets are likely to be weaker as muni problems surface in the US and Chinese financials stocks decline and weaker US sectors report 2Q results. However Russian stocks that have been laggards this year could end up immune to international problems temporarily cheering to Navalny who is still free.

Is Detroit contagious?  Bondholders are nervously awaiting a federal judge’s decision on Detroit’s request on July 18 for bankruptcy protection as it seeks relief from a staggering $18.5 billion debt.  A federal bankruptcy judge has scheduled a hearing for August 28 to determine if the city is eligible for Chapter 9 shelter....

July 15 2013 Bernanke supports US bond prices, doesn't want to scare Chinese

Our view of the markets was slightly bearish for the week and we were wrong, as US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke decided to provide support to US bond prices, talking them up. Coincidentally  last week main political event was the US China talks held on Wednesday and Thursday in Washington which were attended by  Yang Jiechi, a key figure in setting China's foreign policy and Vice Premier Wang Yang. From the US side the meeting was hosted by Secretary of State John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew  while President Joe Biden also attended...

July 8 2013 US Earnings Season will be overshadowed by China Stats

Kazan University Games

The world university games opening ceremony was held yesterday in Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan republic. After opening show  that went on for 4 hours, the athletes and guests were greeted by Vladimir Putin at about midnight.

Kazan games were on the  list of events that was supposed to drive up infrastructure investment in Russia. The total money spent in preparation to the games topped 300bn Rub (c US$10bn).  The things that were constructed included

11 large arenas as well as smaller gyms. Kazan saw construction of new airport terminal, rail way station and a bus transit hub, 65 km of roads as well as some metro lanes.

Alerts

Feb 18 2014 AvtoVAZ 200 mln loss

In the mid 1960s, the Soviet Union decided its economy needed a reform. Following a heated discussion in the media, in the party Central Committee and in the academy of sciences, the then-prime minister Alexei Kosygin chose the model offered by Kharkov’s economist Yevsei Liberman as the basis for reform. The idea was to change the criteria by which the efficiency

Nov 18 2013  Kazan plane crash  highlights troubled topic of Russian transport infrastructure?

A catastrophe in Kazan is tragic. By coincidence it occurred at a time when the policy makers are discussing Kazan transport routes. Whether or not to build a rapid train track link and to launch fast train service between Moscow and Kazan. Alternative project is ironically focuses on connecting distant Russian parts by air and to invest into airport infrastructure and airlines.

Aug 3 2013  Travel Warnings. Is something cooking in the Middle East?

Analysts had been speculating for long time ahead that something may happen in Iran this summer after the elections in the country. Especially if elections yield a president which will be unable to stop Iran’s nuclear arms effort. In particular some analysts specifically pointed to Ramadan as a possible time window for escalation in the middle east.

July 18 2013  Navalny jailed. Sell?

Alexey Navalny and his business partner Petr Ofitserov have been sentenced to 5 and 4 years jail terms respectively. Rumors are that the court decision could drive crowds out on the streets in Moscow this evening in the same manner as protests erupted in December of 2011. Back then the stocks that were the most vulnerable to protests included Novatek and Rosneft declining 17% and 10% respectively in a couple of weeks following eruption of protests. RTS declined 12% despite high oil price and fairly stable macro backdrop.

Daily Morning Meeting

US economic success weighs on markets

Russian stocks are lower as president upset that he lost investors support adopts the law which undermines pension investing. Also investors behave just as would Stanislavski predict, not believing into manipulation, that Khodorkovsky will be freed before Olympics.

 ADP report weighs on markets 

Stocks tanked on Wednesday, India and Turkey were the only 2 exception, their stock markets managed to climb +1.5% and +0.5% respectively. The biggest loser is Nikkey down 1.5%, Indonesian and SA stocks are also among the biggest losers down 1.5 and 1.1% respectively.

December 3  Aussie’s central bank 2 cents in the war of currencies

Aussie central bank moves shows that global rates will be low until  that either all central banks quit QE at the same time. This should supports the markets in  long term

November 12  UN sanctions if removed can push oil

The last week’s trend is set to continue, DM stocks are somewhat supported while emerging market stocks are slumping. Turkey was leading on the way down yesterday. Finishing 2.4% down. Russian GDRs were the second worst index down 0.7%. Indian stocks finished 0.4% down. While Brazil was up almost a percentage point and Shanghai composite today is adding 0.9%. Asian stocks are  higher today.  Hang Seng is up 0.9%.

Nov 8 2013 US 3q GDP, Twitter IPO, ECB rate and MSCI Rebalance and Frank S&P Downgrade

ECB makes surprising rate cut. US GDP is on healthy growth path up 28% in 3q slightly better than expected. MSCI announced that it removed 3 stocks from Russian universe. There are only 22 stocks will be left in MSCI Russia.  Russia’s official equity universe, measured by benchmark shrunk to 22 stocks from 27 in the beginning of 2013. Welcome to Venezuela! S&P Frank’s downgrade adds to euro weakness from ECB decision.

Twitter IPO cements  the trend - sell Exxon and buy tech stocks and this time its not like 1999. This time its for real.

Nov 7 2013 Its ECB rate decision and Draghi comments vs. US GDP 3q growth estimates in a battle of currencies today

Strangely the dollar might come a winner if it loses versus euro on weaker than expected growth numbers. Overall effect on risk appetite from that dollar weakness is complex but on a simplified view risk appetite is likely to be better.

Nov 6 2013 Downgraded european growth estimates weigh down on risk

In the news weaker eurozone growth  projection announced by EU commision, and wage growth likely lagging cpi advances in Japan. ISM non manufacturing index in the US was slightly better in October,

Nov 5 2013 Risk appetite is just a notch weaker but should be supported

Stocks are slightly higher as S&P finished up 0.36%. iBovespa is the leader with 0.78% gain, Polish WIG is up 0.71% and the gauge of Russian GDRs in London up 0.5%. The weakest set of stocks included China where Shanghai composite was down 1%, Hang Seng is down 0.9% while Kospi lost 0.7%.

Nov 1 2013  Fed leaves QE on to support bond rates but for how long?

Stocks are weaker overall especially in dollar terms. Nikkey leads on the way down with 1.76% fall. Turkey was down 1.6% yesterday as well. Poland is down 0.9%, Russia finished 0.4% down for the RTS. Somewhat better supported was India stock market on the back of stronger performance of state banks shares

October 31 2013  Fed leaves QE on to support bond rates

Stocks finished slightly stronger yesterday as Fed kept the QE on with aim to support bond rates and keep them low. Additionally positive was German inflation data which showed inflation weakened in October in the country.

Stocks in Hong Kong, SA and India were notably stronger, while stocks in Turkey, Indonesia and Poland dipped slightly.

October 30 2013  Front Running the Fed - was the most profitable trade of last 5 years

All eyes are on the FOMC meeting. I think that the meeting will finally result with initiation of tapering by the Fed. But this view is quite contrarian.

October 29 2013  All calm ahead of FOMC meeting tomorrow

Stocks prices are slightly higher iBovespa is the strongest gainer +1.7% on Monday, followed by Hang Seng and Nikkei. Indian stocks were laggards ahead of RBI meeting today. US stocks are unchanged ahead of retail sales data today. In Russia Magnit was supported on good numbers

October 25 2013  This time we have some good news from China, but stocks fall anyway

Stock prices are down. India stocks down 1.2%. Brazil stocks are down 1% as banks fall. Chinese HSBC PMI is quite healthy pointing to 7.5% increase but despite that  China stocks are down again 0.7% today versus yesterday

October 24 2013  We have some good news, oops sorry we have some bad news from China

Chinese banks shares are very weak on concerns that China banks are at stress. Major banks  were writing off bad debt. On another note property prices were very strong implying some curbing of liquidity is possible by PBC.

MPC minutes in UK hinted at possible rate hike.

October 23 2013  Trailing US payrols support view that Fed tapering will be delayed.

Stocks were mixed yesterday. While S&P 500 Index gained 0.5% and South African shares were up 1% Micex index declined 0.6% and Shanghai composite declined 0.4%.

October 22 2013  Chinese consumption boost means higher refrigerator demand

Chinese communist party  is recalibrating economy towards consumption. On the back of these efforts Chinese biggest refrigerator manufacturer Qingdao Haier jumped 10% yesterday.

October 21 2013  Chinese consumption boost means higher refrigerator demand

Chinese communist party  is recalibrating economy towards consumption. On the back of these efforts Chinese biggest refrigerator manufacturer Qingdao Haier jumped 10% yesterday.

October 18 2013  How do you want your China stats today?

Putin is again manipulating  investors expectations, this time unable to match expectations on dividend front - demanding that state companies pay only  at most 25% payout ratio, -- way below of average for GEM stocks.

October 17 2013  US lawmakers are close to a debt deal

Support at last as US debt deal is close to get through

October 16 2013 Slightly more volatile on Fitch

Fitch places US on watch negative, European finance ministers are still divided on banks regulation and detroit bankruptcy hearings begin in the US

July 30 2013 CBR Gives first 9bn$ to Banks 

CBR was very generous and gave out 300bn Rub - roughly 9bn$ at a rate of 5.75% just 50bpts above the CBR repo rate for bonds.

The fear on the market was the banks will turn around and will buy dollars with this liquidity. As they did  once in  1994 when CBR tried similar mechanism.  But that did not happened this time and ruble was just a notch weaker.

July 25 2013 Public servicemen a problem on Emerging Markets

Russian corporate governance is less of a problem this year as state companies start to pay chunky dividends and firms are required to file international accounting standards financials.

Furthermore companies with more than 50% free float are starting gradually to emerge on a horizon in Russia. While they remain stable and well managed i.e Lukoil, Magnit, Yandex.

Corruption, lack of trust and integrity

What remain a bigger problem in Russia is corruption, lack of trust and lack of integrity as manifested by various guilty court verdicts, laud corruption cases and very superficial service of public employees across many sectors, from government to state companies to schools to medical services....

July 17 2013 China focuses on consumption Russia on investment.

Russian consumption boom is leveling off

International retailers and consumer companies which invested in Russia 10 years ago are reporting stellar profits and are sending money back home. Thus Achaun will pay its owners in France 300 mln$ in dividends on the back of financial year that saw almost 10bn$ revenues and  1bn$ in gross profit.

Mcdonald's will get 150mn$ in dividends from its Russian operations and Ikea which grossed 3.4$bn in Russia last year reported net income of roughly 220mn$. 

July 16 2013 Russia is Number 6 in PPP Dollars.

PM Medvedev has commented on what is most likely being a bogus WB report that places Russian GDP into number 5 rankings in PPP dollars, surpassing Germany. I have seen the report previously in a PDF file in of FB chats, and it looked bogus to me. According to IMF world outlook database the difference between Russian and German PPP dollars GDP is at least 20%-30% with Russian GDP being 2.6 PPP $ trln while Germany 3.2 PPP $ trln. WB probably mixed things up. Here is the table from IMF data on PPP rankings as well as nominal

GEMs Portfolio

March 24

www.midlincoln.com

Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS / Arcelik AS / BIM Birlesik Magazalar AS / Turk Telekomunikasyon AS / TAV Havalimanlari Holding AS /

Midlincoln GEMs Portfolio March 17

Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS / Arcelik AS / BIM Birlesik Magazalar AS / Turk Telekomunikasyon AS / TAV Havalimanlari Holding AS /

Marc 3 Our performance last week (measured since Feb 20)  showed that we outperformed the benchmark in China by 115 bpts in Russia by 1400 bpts in Turkey by 369bpts.

Feb 21 Doing well in Russia, Turkey and China

Feb 14 GEMs Portfolio performance update 

Jan 29 Portfolio

China, Brazil, S.Korea, Turkey, India, Russia, S Africa

Datamine

Mar 5 Looking for stock ideas

Feb 20

Looking for black swans on z-score rankings

Feb 9 China Communications Estimated PE FY1,China Railway Constr Estimated PE FY1

Hypermarcas SA Net Margin

Sinopharm Group Co L Net Margin

Piramal Enterprises  P/B,Hypermarcas SA P/B

Wockhardt Ltd P/S

Sinopharm Group Co L P/S

Sul America SA PEG

Zhongsheng Group Hol PEG

Canara Bank Price Ch 12m

Unitech Ltd Price Ch 12m

Byd Co Ltd ROE

Hypermarcas SA ROE

Jan 20 Aluminum Corp of China, Banco de Credito e Inversiones, China Southern Airlines, E.CL, Ford Otomotiv Sanayi,  Guangzhou R&F Properties, Oi SA, Poly Property Group Co Ltd, Samsung Electronics,

Tupras Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri

Jan 10   CEMIG, Bank of Communications,

Oi SA ,  Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank

Ideas Vote

September 27 2013 Putin’s discount to widen Buy corruption trades - Rosneft, Surgut, Novatek, Megafon

Sell Lukoil and MTS

September 20 2013 Turkey or Russia in the new round of currency wars

September 11 2013 

Buy leveraged companies ie Mechel, Rusal, Sistema, Gazprom, PIK

Sell Sberbank, VTB

September 4  

Buy Moscow Exchange Shares

Buy Pharmstandard

Buy Bashneft ords and prefs

August 28  2013 

Ideas Vote

Buy Oil commodity

Buy Surgut pref

August 23  2013 Russia Ideas Vote

Buy local shares vs. GDRs

Buy Moscow Exchange

August 14  2013

Sell VTB

Sell MTS

Buy Gazprom

Buy NLMK

Buy Vimpelcom

August 7  2013 

Sell Sberbank

Buy MD Medical

Buy Aeroflot

Buy Mostotrest, TMK, HMS, Evraz

July 31  2013

Sell CTC Media

Buy Surgut Pref

Sell Ferrexpo

Buy Gold, Silver Stocks Polyus and Polymetal

July 24  2013

Sell Magnit?

Buy Gold?

Sell Uralkali?

Sell Rosneft & Novatek?

Buy PIK

Buy USD sell RUB

Search the News

(This news feed  sources news from all over the internet  not just midlincoln.com)

Last Week and earlier

Tuesday Germany IFO Business Climate falls to 2 months low

UK CPI falls to 1.7%

SARB keeps rate at 5.5%

Thursday UK Retail sales rise healthy in Q1

US GDP 3rd estimate revises growth upwards to 2.7%

Friday

HICP prelim Germany falls

Jan 27 IFO Business Climate rises to 30 m high

BoJ release minutes show worry over US tapering 

Jan 28 India hikes rate 

UK GDP grows at fastest pace since 2007

Jan 29 Fed Meeting - Fed exit weighs on markets 

SA hikes rates to 5.5%

BOJ steady rate 

Germany rises by  HICP falls

US GDP slows to 3.2%

Jan 31  Eurozone HICP

Jan 20 China GDP (7.7% vs. 7.6 expected)

Jan 21 Germany Zew 

Boj MoP 

Jan 22 Australi CPI 

SA CPI 

BOJ Rate 

Brazil MoP Minutes 

Brazil Inflation 

Jan 14

Tuesday French CPI slightly less than forecast at 0.3% in December

US Retail Sales 

Jan 15

Japan Key Machinery Orders hit 2 year high

Brazil rate rises to 10.5%

Jan 16

Australia Employment rises too slowly.

Jan 17

UK Retail Sales soar in December

Jan 6 Germany CPI is higher but falls in harmonized terms

US ISM Non Manufacturing grows at slower rate than forecast 

Jan 7 Eurzone HICP Flash is at 0.8% in December vs. 0.9% in November

Jan 8 ADP Employment report shows private sector in the US added more jobs than expected

Poland Keeps Rate at record low

Jan 9 BOE Holds Rates Maintains QE

ECB keeps rates flat at 0.25%

Bank of Korea Holds rates despite strength in won

Jan 10   Brazil Consumer prices rise 5.91 pct in 2013 vs 5.84 pct despite rate hikes

US Payrolls rise less than forecast, unemployment at 6.7%

Jan 1 Latvia Adopts Euro becomes 18th country 

Jan 2 US ISM Manufacturing slows down 

Dec 26  BoJ Fastest Inflation Monthly Economic Report for December

Dec 27  Slowdown is concern for some BOJ members 

December 16 Tankan Japanese Business mood rises to 6 year high 

December 17 UK CPI Falls to 2.1% in November

Final HICP for Eurozone decelerated to 0.6% in November core CPI growth but below expectations

Germany ZEW climbs to highest level since 2006

US CPI was flat in November

December 18 India RBI meeting rates are flat despite inflation spike in November

Germany IFO business climate improves

BoE Minutes show unity for no change

FOMC Meeting

December 19 UK Sales up 0.3% in November

Brazil Inflation tops forcasts in mid December

Friday UK GDP for q1 and q2 revised upwards, no change for q3

US GDP 3rd estimate shows 3.6% growth

BOJ keeps easing

December 10 Japan Key Machinery Orders rise

December 11  Germany Final HICP

SA Inflation better than expected in November at 5.6%

Australia Employment surges to 5.8% post crisis high

December 12 France CPI steady, Italian prices decline

US Retail Sales accelerate

IMF Cuts Russia growth forecast

Korea BOK no action  rate is at 2.5%

December 13  CBR REPO rate at 5.5%,  CBR rate flat

Poland Inflation drops to  0.6%

December 6 US Employment Report 200K low paying jobs are added

December 5  BoE Rate maintains rates (0.5%) and QE (at 375 bn L)

Eurozone ECB rate is  kept at 0.25%

US GDP 2nd est surges to 3.6% in 3Q in the second revision

December 4 Australia GDP at 2.3% below expectations

Eurozone GDP grew exogenous 0.1% in Q3

US ADP Employment Report - Huge beat, US companies added more than 2 mln jobs

US ISM non manufacturing slower in November

Poland leaves Rate unchanged at 2.25%

December 3 Australia RBA Overnight rate at 2.5%

December 2  US ISM manufacturing rose to 57.3%

Nov 26 South Africa GDP slow to 4 year low

Nov 27 UK GDP is at 0.8% driven by consumption and investment

Brazil rises interest rate to double digits

Nov 28 Germany jobs fail to improve

Germany November HICP rises more than expected

Nov 29 Poland final GDP in line at 1.9%

Eurozone Flash HICP accelerates pushing up silver, gold

Nov 25 The minutes from BOJ's October policy meeting showed officials said attention should be paid to the downside risks

Nov 19 Eurozone ZEW Showed Hope for Europe and in

Germany Zew shows confidence is at 4 year high. AlsoGermany Business IFO Climate rises more than expected

Brazil Inflation in mid November rises lessthan expected easing pressure on rates somewhat.

China manufacturing index eases in November

BoE Minutes deliver dovish message on interest rates - rates are to remain low even if unemployment falls.

US price pressure is off even as sales rise. US CPI falls first time in 3 months

while US Retail Sales up 0.4% in October slightly betterthan expected

Thursday BOJ Rate kept constant, yen weakens

Turkey rates left unchanged but one month repo auctions are ceased

Nov 20 South Africa Rate is left unchanged which knocks out bits from rand

BoJ Monthly Economic Report for November is strong despite that Japan cuts outlook on exporters  on GEM weakness

12 Nov 2013

Germany HICP Final is at 3 year low

Russian GDP expands less than forecast in Q3

UK CPI is weak

Japan Key Machinery Orders unexpectedly down

13 Nov 2013

Japan GDP slowed less the expected in Q3

14 Nov 2014

France CPI is weak

Poland 3Q GDP Beats estimates with faster expansion since 2012

UK Retail Sales weak, fall 0.7%

Eurozone GDP growth 0.1% in Q3. 

Poland CPI is stable supporting growth 

15 Nov 2013 

Eurozone HICP is only +0.7% and is supportive of the accommodative policy 

Poland NBP data: In October, inflation net of food and energy prices amounted to 1.4% (y/y), rising by 0.1 percentage point on its September level.

Nov 5  Australia RBA holds Rates

European Commission downgrades growth for next yeaar from 1%  to 0.1%

Japan BOJ Minutes show even more accomodative policy is possible

Nov 6  Poland NBP Rate is on hold, expectations of rate hikes pushed into 2014

Nov 7 Australia Unemployment rate at 5.7%, job creation is sluggish

BOE Rate  - policy of “forward guidance” means that until the unemployment rate falls to 7 per cent or below, the MPC will not consider a rise in the official Bank rate.

ECB Rate cut to 0.25% from 0.5%. Euro weakens

US GDP 3Q grows 2.8%

Friday US Employment Report Employers also added 60,000 more jobs in the previous two months than earlier estimated.

CBR  Repo Rate is left unchanged. Repo rates are still deeply below inflation, fueling more inflation.  

November 1

US ISM Manufacturing expands faster than forecast

October 31

German and Eurozone Inflation lower than expected Eurozone job numbers flat

October 29

India RBI -Interest Rate Meeting - RBI Raises rates

US Retail Sales fall on weak car sales data

Fed leaves Interest Rate Unchanged

Oct 26 2013

IFO Business Climate in slight decline

UK GDP is slightly better with 0.8% growth  

Oct 22 2013

US Payrolls climb less the forecast delaying expectations for stimulus 

US Retail Sales rescheduled for October 29

US Unemployment application drop

October 22

US Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.2%

Oct 23 2013

Australia Inflation is higher than estimated and the rate cuts are dropped

South Africa Inflation rate falls to 6%

BOE MPC Meeting minutes indicate recovery is robust, rises expectations of rate hikes

October 14

Russia CBR Rate Meeting - no cut  is possible

European Currency Union Meeting

October 15

UK CPI

France CPI

Eurozone ZEW shows crisis is over

Poland CPI

October 16

Eurozone Inflation drops to lowest

Poland Inflation Stable

October 17

UK Retail Sales Hit 5 year high

US CPI, Employment Report and the rest of the reports rescheduled due to shutdown

October 18

Brazil Inflation slows down

China GDP growth is fastest but outlook is dim

Results

Google earnings rise 36% stock surges

Goldman Sachs results are flat

Bank of America profit higher on cost cutting

October 13

US Gov shutdown  - still no deal as default looms

October 11

Germany September inflation at 1.6%

US Retail sales rose modestly

October 10

BOE kept its interest rates at 0.5pct

October 9

Japan Key Machinery Orders Jump to Highest since Lehman

BOJ meeting showed that Japan's exports jumped 12.2% on year in July, led by automobiles, organic compounds

October 8

Brazil  central bank is trying to control long-term inflation expectations, and is  acting by raising interest rates

Alcoa delivers strong set of numbers while the market frets over the Government shutdown

China inflation rose sharply in September

Oct 4

BOJ Monetary Policy

Oct 3

US ISM non manufacturing

Oct 2

ECB Interest Rate is left unchanged 

ADP Employment

Oct 1

US ISM Manufacturing rose in Sep

Sep 30

Australia RBA Rates on

Hold a cut is more likely in February

Sep 30

Brazil Q3 Inflation Report

Japan Tankan

US Government Shutdown

Sep 29 People’s Bank of China raised its daily reference rate

Sep 29  China Inaugurates Shanghai Zone in Financial Reform Drive

Sep 27  UK GDP 3Q estimate and final

Sep 24 IFO Business Climate Rises

Sep 24 Iranian president Ruhani  talks to Obama

Sep 23 German Federal Election

Sep 22  China's PMI HSCB Index rose in September

Sep 22 German Elections

Sep 20 Brazil CPI rises 0.27% in August slightly below expectations

Sep 19 RBI hikes repo rate to 7.5%, reduces MSF rate to 9.5%

Sep 19 Fed Refrains From QE Taper, Keeps Bond Buying at $85 Bln

Sep 19 South Africa, the Bank’s monetary policy committee, which met last week, left interest rates unchanged for the seventh consecutive time

Sep 19 UK Retail Sales Unexpectedly fall in August

Sep 18 SA Consumer Price Index (CPI) breaches target range

Sep 18 BoE Minutes Show Central Bank Not Planning Further Stimulus

Sep 17 UK CPI Dips In Aug; Pushed Down By Petrol, Airfares

Sep 17 US CPI Barely up in August

Sep17 Eurozone Zew soars in August

Sep 16

Meeting of Valdai Club Members begins Sep 16-Sep 19

Sep 13 UN submit Syria report

Sep 13 Russia’s CBR  keeps the rate at 8.25% focuses on funding against illiquid assets

Sep 13 Polish CPI remains unchanged in August at 1.1%

Sep 12 A Plea for Caution From Russia - Putin’s article

French August CPI Rises

Sep 12 Weak employment data takes heat out of Australian dollar

Sep 11 German inflation eases to 1.5 pct in August

Sep 10 Syria, America and Putin's Bluff

Sep 10 China IP showed fastest growth YTD

Sep 10 Navalny submits hundreds of complaints against mayor poll, demands halt to inauguration

Sep 10 China Trade Data erase concernes

Sep 10

BOJ Minutes: Many Said Fiscal Management Credibility Important to Keep Interest Rates Steady

Sep 9

US congress decision on Syria bombing

Sep 8

Moscow ections outcome shows state polls were fraud

Sep 6

Russia GDP 2Q  estimate at 1.2%

US employment report - a mixed bag

Sep 5

German finance minister’s, brief on Greece’s third financial assistance package

BOJ rate unchanged, Kuroda revises econ outlook up

ECB Rate flat, econ outlook is revised upward 

The ADP report shows  US private sector added 176K jobs during August, missing expectations at 180K and down from July's 198K

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rises in August against expectations

G20 in St. Petersburg - Syria, BRIC fund

Sep 4

Eurozone GDP growth confirmed in the 2nd estimate retail sales rise

Poland NBP holds rate and sees rates steady

Australia GDP Growth Beats Expectations but Mining Boom End Beckons

Sep 3

Advanced economies growing again but some emerging economies slowing, says OECD

RBA holds rates, num on policy  outlook

US ISM Manufacturing Points to Growth

Sep 2

Moscow exchange starts t+2 trading

Sep 1 China Economy Strengthens as Factory Gauge at 16-Month High in August

Aug 30 Consumer prices climb in Japan, retail sales fall

Aug 30 BOE's Carney seeks to soothe views of higher rates. Rates are not going to climb when unemployment drops to 9%

Aug 29 Brazil rate hike to 9%

Aug 28 South Africa's economy rebounded in the second quarter, growing at 3.0 percent

Aug 27 Tiffany reported higher revenues, higher net income and tripling of free cash flow in Q2 2013.

Aug 27 German Ifo business climate rises to 16-month high of 107.5 in August

Aug 26 At Jackson Hole Meeting  Central bankers debate withdrawing global liquidity

Aug 23 UK GDP Revised Upward In Second Quarter

Aug 22 Upbeat China August flash HSBC PMI points to stabilizing growth

Aug 22 HP posts worse than expected financial results as profit sinks 15 percent

Aug 22 Target warns on annual profit, cites cautious shoppers

Aug 22 US Leading Indicators

Aug 21 Key Passages From Fed Minutes

Aug 21 South African CPI rises more-than-expected

Aug 20 BHP Billiton results highlight insignificance of South African operations

Aug 20 Glencore Xstrata Takes $8.47 Billion Charge

Aug 20 Home Depot's excellent second-quarter results

Aug 19 Shares rebound after RBA minutes

Aug 16  Inflation steady as exports in eurozone grow

Aug 15 Wall Street was down sharply on Thursday due to weak results from Cisco, Wal-Mart.

Aug 15 Wal-Mart results hit by tough markets as Asda growth slows

Aug 15 US consumer inflation rises to 2%

Aug 15 There will be seven additions  and 3 deletions from the MSCI ACWI  Standard Index

Aug 14 BOE Minutes Show Less Stimulus Support

Aug 14 Another recession over as Q2 GDP grows 0.3%

Aug 14 Poland's annual inflation accelerates to 1.1% in July Wednesday, double the estimate 

Aug 14 Poland's GDP Growth Accelerates In Q2 

Aug 14 French Inflation Accelerates In July

Aug 13 U.S. retail sales data points to improving economy

Aug 13 Upbeat German and Eurozone ZEW sentiment data

Aug 13 UK inflation rate falls to 2.8% in July

Aug 13 Germany's Jul HICP +1.9% Y/Y; Core Infl 1.8% Y/Y

Aug 12 Machinery Orders Bright Sign For Japan Sales Tax Advocates

Q2 2013  Wal-Mart Gets Ready For Russia

Aug 10 China's Credit Expansion Slows as Li Curbs Shadow Banking

Aug 10 A Japanese Crisis Nears

Aug 9 China’s PMI confirms severe Asian weakness

Aug 9 UK Unemployment Seen Unchanged as BOE Puts Jobs in Spotlight

Aug 9 Dollar Edges Off Seven-Week Low, China Production Data In Focus

Aug 9 China’s production figures suggest economy is stabilising

Aug 9 Global shares, oil prices firm as China data improves

Aug 9 Global export leaders Germany and China have logged increased foreign trade, adding to signs of rising global demand. Experts surmise, however, that a full-blown economic recovery is not yet a reality.

Aug 9 RBA Singing a New Tune on Rate Cuts

                          

Aug 8 China’s Iron Ore Imports Surge to Record High

Aug 8 Rio Tinto half-year profit plunges by 71 per cent

Aug 8 BoJ and BoK vote to keep interest rates unchanged

Aug 5 July US ISM non-manufacturing PMI 56.0 vs 53.0 exp

Aug 1 China PMI could mark end of negative data surprises

  Midlincoln Research · midlincoln.com