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About Independent Investment Strategy since 2013...> Products Summary of events to watch this week Upcoming Data Releases Monday US ISM manufacturing Tuesday Russian GDP Wednesday Germany Final HICP Thursday Australia Employment Friday CBR REPO rate auction Country snapshot Sectors Highlights and Media Russian oil and gas sector, avoiding toilet paper shortage it's not yet obvious, but developments in the Russian oil & gas sector such as emergence of state oil and gas companies, growing importance of Gazprom and especially of Rosneft could lead to further disbalances in Russian sector economics. My favorite research piece back from 2011. Written following Emelianenko Monson fight and all the booing. Hugely timely notice of upcoming trouble. Is Russia on the Path of Becoming a Frontier Market? The same topic again - venezualisation of Russia. What thoughts come to your mind when you hear that the key founding shareholder of Russian social network "Vkontakte" has been accused of .... Looking for the Center of Financial Mass If you try to estimate where the current center of financial mass is as a point on the surface of Earth — a weighted average of geographic coordinates of various stock exchanges weighted by the value traded at those exchanges — it’s 34.7 degrees of northern latitude and 23.9 degrees of eastern longitude. ... The world so far looks somewhat similar to last year. Most factors affecting the business environment and financial markets are similar to last year's. Global economic growth ... Trends for 2012 and 2013 | The Moscow Times In a world pictured as a big village, a country is probably pictured as house. Just like an old house, with its known and unknown problems, with parts undergoing renovation and new construction and parts where constant ... Pussy Riot Verdict, What will the market say? Market will most likely be negatively affected by the sentence (read this article in Russian or translate)... Privatization of the Pension System Delayed In the ongoing discussion on the future of the Russian pension system's reform, some officials are offering to cancel investment or a private component of the pension and to retain only the basic component guaranteed ... Trends on the Russian M&A Market: Theory vs. Practice The start of 2012 was pretty gloomy for M&A bankers; 2011 had just finished on a very uncertain note, and politicians in Europe were unable to ... Read or translate this article which is in Russian on former VTB buyback Will Fast Russian Companies Ever Emerge? In 1999, we saw the economy strongly shifting away from oil and gas toward industrial and service sectors. Import substitution boomed, local production flourished, Internet businesses started .... New IPOs Get Squeezed by the Size of Gazprom First, I want to highlight the following statistics: Russia has only 26 companies in MSCI Russia index vs. MSCI South Africa 50 companies, MSCI India 73 companies, MSCI Brazil 78 companies, MSCI South ... History of Russia's IPOs as Reflected in the MSCI Russia Index Russia's stock market evolution is difficult, but the progress is unpreventable. It is reflected in the changing composition of Russia's benchmark MSCI Standard index, which spans 90 percent of Russia's ..... Built in 1970 under Prime Minister Kosygin, AvtoVAZ played a major part in the collapse of the Soviet Union and is still a problem. The Last Convergence Attempt – State Firms Must Focus on Profit and Dividends Russia was on a straight course to liberalization of its property, when in the middle of the road it realized that property liberalization should be delayed and for a ..... There are all kinds of small business owners in Russia. Some of them operate clubs and restaurants, some run Western-style advertisement, IT or legal consulting business The Future Landscape of the Russian Stock Market The crisis will fade away one day. On that day, companies will start forecasting year-on-year earnings growth instead of growing declines. The stock market will survive, but its landscape is likely to change significantly. Boosting Russia's Export Trade When the crisis cracked down on the Russian economy last November -- the first remedy suggested by most of the economists was a diversification of economy. Alchemists Sought Philosopher's Stone, Investors Prefer Gas The stock market is all about information. Information and news are intangible things, like gases, in the air or space around us, mixing with other gases, changing their pressure and spread... | December 9 Remembering Mandela In the 90ties world faced 2 huge transformations- fall of apartheid in South Africa and the fall of the Soviet Union. On one occasion Nelson Mandela met with Boris Yeltsin in spring of 1999 in Moscow. Moscow was lying in ruins of asian financial crisis when Yeltsin and Mandela met. wo great revolutionaries of the 20th century met 5 years after the fall of apartheid in South Africa and almost 8 years after the fall of Soviet Union... read more December 2 LV - Louis Vuitton or Lenin Vladimir? Russian politicos could probably be even thinking in terms of Soviet Union and Czech and 1968 if other things fail and Ukraine is astray and on its way to Europe. At any rate if things take longer than Sochi Olympics, Russia is likely to become far more aggressive with its pressure in Ukraine. The consumers sectors are also under pressure as giant Louis VuItton suitcase installation is removed from red square. Some Russians wonder however what is abbreviature of LV stands for - it might be Lenin Vladimir whose is still rests on red square while Russians still undecided which one to worship. November 25 Iranian Gold Likely to Press on Prices Oil price is likely to stay elevated as Israeli keep threatening Iran with the attack amid the country reached the nuclear deal that it will stop enriching uranium of 6 months. Also no new oil supply is expected from the deal while gold sales by Iran could increase. November 20 We have good news from China, oh sorry, we have bad news from China. Last week risk was supported by Chinese reform promise and promise of gradual liberalisation of yuan rate and credit rates in china. This week the credit crunch in china is in spotlight as well as actually in many other emerging as well as developed markets where rates are high due to pricing pressures such as China, Australia, Russia. And if US rates are bound to increase, this will cause lots of leveraged players to go belly up. November 11 2013 Nothing dies harder than a bad idea DM stocks are somewhat supported while emerging market stocks are slumping as dollar strengthens, bonds weaken as US economy improves and tapering nears. Iran deal can be damaging for the oil price, as the last bit of risk premium is knocked out from the price of oil with Iran reaching compromise with atomic energy agency. European weaker economy as projected for 2014 can put stress again on peripheral parts of europe and Turkey as well. November 4 2013 Its Europe’s turn in currency wars. Quite intense week in terms of data. Europeans have their say in currency wars this week. The euro is likely to be weaker, dollar stronger and risk appetite slightly smaller. In Russia its a national unity day, which celebrates an event in history which lead to establishment of Romanov’s family. In the course of those historic events, Russians defeated Polish invaders and kicked them out from Russia. October 28 2013 Oil is devil’s shit. Instead of focusing on discussion of whatever Fed can do on Wednesday i would like to highlight the irony with developing the oil and gas sector in Russia. Staking anything at all on success of developing Russia's hydrocarbons sector could lead to scarcity of toilet paper in Moscow once again. October 21 2013 Printing continues, default avoided, European crisis is over, China is growing - what else You Need? Another FOMC meeting in focus. Bunch of stats will be released in the US this week and the next which were delayed due to shutdown. Nominal per capital GDP highlighted for former CIS countries. October 14 2013 US events unfolding -- what is it a move in currency wars or real default possibility Its the second week of 3q results season with Google, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America results coming up. Adding to the disturbance could be the beginning of Detroit bankruptcy hearings on Tuesday. This time, emerging markets are positively highlighted on the back of US debt ceiling debates as well as possible US default or downgrade. The major source of optimism for emerging markets is US dollar ... October 7 2013 From Russia into Venezuela and Iran This summer MSCI announced its decision to reclassify the MSCI Qatar and MSCI UAE Indices from Frontier Markets to Emerging Markets and the MSCI Morocco Index from Emerging Markets to Frontier Markets... September 30 2013 Possible US Debt Downgrade, Putin’s fifth term and lower oil price Turkish stocks looks especially well set if oil price declines, but global growth will feed through into emerging markets. Investors are likely to be picking up Turkey in this backdrop... September 16 2013 Syria, Oil Price, Fed taper This week is likely to be price negative for risk assets as risk appetite recedes as Fed prepares to taper... September 9 2013 Moscow Election, Syria, CBR cut? A vote on Syria can press on the negative side while Chinese data, higher oil price and possible rate cut could press on the upside. The result is somewhat neutral to small positive stock performance for Russian stocks... September 2 2013 Come Back on the Labor Day? One popular investors tactics is to sell in May and then to come back and buy on the labor day. This year it could have worked would Fed not decided to taper liquidity and would middle east tensions not escalate... August 26 2013 Syria, Uralkali and possibly slower US and capital flight from GEM.? As it look most of the numbers coming out this week are to signal weak set of economic inputs therefore but not bad enough for the Fed to delay tapering of stimulus which is a worst combination and is likely to imply weaker stock markets... August 19 2013 Will bonds money make it into equities? They should. Gold strength implies investors are searching for a path away from fixed income into gold e.g. Their next step could be going for equities on a much wider scale, as gold investing is sort of dull... August 12 2013 Possible China soft landing, better DM growth and help from weak ruble Russia is stagnating as result of weaker global backdrop for the emerging markets but mainly because of the increased regulation by the government which decided to drive the economy in manual shift mode back in 2009 and can’t switch into automatic mode since then. We are almost back in soviet economic setup where the achievement of certain economic sector was primarily the achievement the respective sector minister.... August 5 2013 Travel Warnings, Elections Season Highlighted Iran in the next 10 years with its 80 mln people and 1.2% population growth rate will add another 10 mln in population and is set to overcome Germany in population. With its natural resource base e.g. Iran has largest gas reserves in the world, Iran can become an influential regional power, slightly less populous than Egypt and a lot less populous than Pakistan, but due to its natural resource base - much more influential and probably the most influential country in north Africa, central asia and the middle east. July 29 2013 Atlass is almost forgotten China's government has ordered companies to close factories in 19 industries. The affected industries include steel, cement, copper and glass. Politburo asked panies to close outright some 1400 plants are about to be shut down. That could potentially improve global prices in material sectors that were badly hurt by CHinese overproduction. On the other hand measure is likely to affect badly Chinese GDP and some commentators are now talking about 3% average growth for China for the next 5 years. Ouch! July 22 2013 Buy Before Elections or After? International markets are likely to be weaker as muni problems surface in the US and Chinese financials stocks decline and weaker US sectors report 2Q results. However Russian stocks that have been laggards this year could end up immune to international problems temporarily cheering to Navalny who is still free. Is Detroit contagious? Bondholders are nervously awaiting a federal judge’s decision on Detroit’s request on July 18 for bankruptcy protection as it seeks relief from a staggering $18.5 billion debt. A federal bankruptcy judge has scheduled a hearing for August 28 to determine if the city is eligible for Chapter 9 shelter.... July 15 2013 Bernanke supports US bond prices, doesn't want to scare Chinese Our view of the markets was slightly bearish for the week and we were wrong, as US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke decided to provide support to US bond prices, talking them up. Coincidentally last week main political event was the US China talks held on Wednesday and Thursday in Washington which were attended by Yang Jiechi, a key figure in setting China's foreign policy and Vice Premier Wang Yang. From the US side the meeting was hosted by Secretary of State John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew while President Joe Biden also attended... July 8 2013 US Earnings Season will be overshadowed by China Stats Kazan University Games The world university games opening ceremony was held yesterday in Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan republic. After opening show that went on for 4 hours, the athletes and guests were greeted by Vladimir Putin at about midnight. Kazan games were on the list of events that was supposed to drive up infrastructure investment in Russia. The total money spent in preparation to the games topped 300bn Rub (c US$10bn). The things that were constructed included 11 large arenas as well as smaller gyms. Kazan saw construction of new airport terminal, rail way station and a bus transit hub, 65 km of roads as well as some metro lanes. Daily Morning Meeting December 6 US economic success weighs on markets Russian stocks are lower as president upset that he lost investors support adopts the law which undermines pension investing. Also investors behave just as would Stanislavski predict, not believing into manipulation, that Khodorkovsky will be freed before Olympics. December 5 ADP report weighs on markets Stocks tanked on Wednesday, India and Turkey were the only 2 exception, their stock markets managed to climb +1.5% and +0.5% respectively. The biggest loser is Nikkey down 1.5%, Indonesian and SA stocks are also among the biggest losers down 1.5 and 1.1% respectively. December 3 Aussie’s central bank 2 cents in the war of currencies Aussie central bank moves shows that global rates will be low until that either all central banks quit QE at the same time. This should supports the markets in long term November 12 UN sanctions if removed can push oil The last week’s trend is set to continue, DM stocks are somewhat supported while emerging market stocks are slumping. Turkey was leading on the way down yesterday. Finishing 2.4% down. Russian GDRs were the second worst index down 0.7%. Indian stocks finished 0.4% down. While Brazil was up almost a percentage point and Shanghai composite today is adding 0.9%. Asian stocks are higher today. Hang Seng is up 0.9%. Nov 8 2013 US 3q GDP, Twitter IPO, ECB rate and MSCI Rebalance and Frank S&P Downgrade ECB makes surprising rate cut. US GDP is on healthy growth path up 28% in 3q slightly better than expected. MSCI announced that it removed 3 stocks from Russian universe. There are only 22 stocks will be left in MSCI Russia. Russia’s official equity universe, measured by benchmark shrunk to 22 stocks from 27 in the beginning of 2013. Welcome to Venezuela! S&P Frank’s downgrade adds to euro weakness from ECB decision. Twitter IPO cements the trend - sell Exxon and buy tech stocks and this time its not like 1999. This time its for real. Nov 7 2013 Its ECB rate decision and Draghi comments vs. US GDP 3q growth estimates in a battle of currencies today Strangely the dollar might come a winner if it loses versus euro on weaker than expected growth numbers. Overall effect on risk appetite from that dollar weakness is complex but on a simplified view risk appetite is likely to be better. Nov 6 2013 Downgraded european growth estimates weigh down on risk In the news weaker eurozone growth projection announced by EU commision, and wage growth likely lagging cpi advances in Japan. ISM non manufacturing index in the US was slightly better in October, Nov 5 2013 Risk appetite is just a notch weaker but should be supported Stocks are slightly higher as S&P finished up 0.36%. iBovespa is the leader with 0.78% gain, Polish WIG is up 0.71% and the gauge of Russian GDRs in London up 0.5%. The weakest set of stocks included China where Shanghai composite was down 1%, Hang Seng is down 0.9% while Kospi lost 0.7%. Nov 1 2013 Fed leaves QE on to support bond rates but for how long? Stocks are weaker overall especially in dollar terms. Nikkey leads on the way down with 1.76% fall. Turkey was down 1.6% yesterday as well. Poland is down 0.9%, Russia finished 0.4% down for the RTS. Somewhat better supported was India stock market on the back of stronger performance of state banks shares October 31 2013 Fed leaves QE on to support bond rates Stocks finished slightly stronger yesterday as Fed kept the QE on with aim to support bond rates and keep them low. Additionally positive was German inflation data which showed inflation weakened in October in the country. Stocks in Hong Kong, SA and India were notably stronger, while stocks in Turkey, Indonesia and Poland dipped slightly. October 30 2013 Front Running the Fed - was the most profitable trade of last 5 years All eyes are on the FOMC meeting. I think that the meeting will finally result with initiation of tapering by the Fed. But this view is quite contrarian. October 29 2013 All calm ahead of FOMC meeting tomorrow Stocks prices are slightly higher iBovespa is the strongest gainer +1.7% on Monday, followed by Hang Seng and Nikkei. Indian stocks were laggards ahead of RBI meeting today. US stocks are unchanged ahead of retail sales data today. In Russia Magnit was supported on good numbers October 25 2013 This time we have some good news from China, but stocks fall anyway Stock prices are down. India stocks down 1.2%. Brazil stocks are down 1% as banks fall. Chinese HSBC PMI is quite healthy pointing to 7.5% increase but despite that China stocks are down again 0.7% today versus yesterday October 24 2013 We have some good news, oops sorry we have some bad news from China Chinese banks shares are very weak on concerns that China banks are at stress. Major banks were writing off bad debt. On another note property prices were very strong implying some curbing of liquidity is possible by PBC. MPC minutes in UK hinted at possible rate hike. October 23 2013 Trailing US payrols support view that Fed tapering will be delayed. Stocks were mixed yesterday. While S&P 500 Index gained 0.5% and South African shares were up 1% Micex index declined 0.6% and Shanghai composite declined 0.4%. October 22 2013 Chinese consumption boost means higher refrigerator demand Chinese communist party is recalibrating economy towards consumption. On the back of these efforts Chinese biggest refrigerator manufacturer Qingdao Haier jumped 10% yesterday. October 21 2013 Chinese consumption boost means higher refrigerator demand Chinese communist party is recalibrating economy towards consumption. On the back of these efforts Chinese biggest refrigerator manufacturer Qingdao Haier jumped 10% yesterday. October 18 2013 How do you want your China stats today? Putin is again manipulating investors expectations, this time unable to match expectations on dividend front - demanding that state companies pay only at most 25% payout ratio, -- way below of average for GEM stocks. October 17 2013 US lawmakers are close to a debt deal Support at last as US debt deal is close to get through October 16 2013 Slightly more volatile on Fitch Fitch places US on watch negative, European finance ministers are still divided on banks regulation and detroit bankruptcy hearings begin in the US July 30 2013 CBR Gives first 9bn$ to Banks CBR was very generous and gave out 300bn Rub - roughly 9bn$ at a rate of 5.75% just 50bpts above the CBR repo rate for bonds. The fear on the market was the banks will turn around and will buy dollars with this liquidity. As they did once in 1994 when CBR tried similar mechanism. But that did not happened this time and ruble was just a notch weaker. July 25 2013 Public servicemen a problem on Emerging Markets Russian corporate governance is less of a problem this year as state companies start to pay chunky dividends and firms are required to file international accounting standards financials. Furthermore companies with more than 50% free float are starting gradually to emerge on a horizon in Russia. While they remain stable and well managed i.e Lukoil, Magnit, Yandex. Corruption, lack of trust and integrity What remain a bigger problem in Russia is corruption, lack of trust and lack of integrity as manifested by various guilty court verdicts, laud corruption cases and very superficial service of public employees across many sectors, from government to state companies to schools to medical services.... July 17 2013 China focuses on consumption Russia on investment. Russian consumption boom is leveling off International retailers and consumer companies which invested in Russia 10 years ago are reporting stellar profits and are sending money back home. Thus Achaun will pay its owners in France 300 mln$ in dividends on the back of financial year that saw almost 10bn$ revenues and 1bn$ in gross profit. Mcdonald's will get 150mn$ in dividends from its Russian operations and Ikea which grossed 3.4$bn in Russia last year reported net income of roughly 220mn$. July 16 2013 Russia is Number 6 in PPP Dollars. PM Medvedev has commented on what is most likely being a bogus WB report that places Russian GDP into number 5 rankings in PPP dollars, surpassing Germany. I have seen the report previously in a PDF file in of FB chats, and it looked bogus to me. According to IMF world outlook database the difference between Russian and German PPP dollars GDP is at least 20%-30% with Russian GDP being 2.6 PPP $ trln while Germany 3.2 PPP $ trln. WB probably mixed things up. Here is the table from IMF data on PPP rankings as well as nominal Alerts Nov 18 2013 Kazan plane crash highlights troubled topic of Russian transport infrastructure? A catastrophe in Kazan is tragic. By coincidence it occurred at a time when the policy makers are discussing Kazan transport routes. Whether or not to build a rapid train track link and to launch fast train service between Moscow and Kazan. Alternative project is ironically focuses on connecting distant Russian parts by air and to invest into airport infrastructure and airlines. Aug 3 2013 Travel Warnings. Is something cooking in the Middle East? Analysts had been speculating for long time ahead that something may happen in Iran this summer after the elections in the country. Especially if elections yield a president which will be unable to stop Iran’s nuclear arms effort. In particular some analysts specifically pointed to Ramadan as a possible time window for escalation in the middle east. July 18 2013 Navalny jailed. Sell? Alexey Navalny and his business partner Petr Ofitserov have been sentenced to 5 and 4 years jail terms respectively. Rumors are that the court decision could drive crowds out on the streets in Moscow this evening in the same manner as protests erupted in December of 2011. Back then the stocks that were the most vulnerable to protests included Novatek and Rosneft declining 17% and 10% respectively in a couple of weeks following eruption of protests. RTS declined 12% despite high oil price and fairly stable macro backdrop. | EMERGING MARKETS VIEW
MSCI emerging markets index finished the week more than 1% Down. Data as of December 9
Best and Worst in the BRICST (MSCI Emerging Markets Index stocks only) Turkey
Brazil
India
China
South Africa
Russia
| Ideas Vote September 27 2013 Putin’s discount to widen Buy corruption trades - Rosneft, Surgut, Novatek, Megafon September 20 2013 Turkey or Russia in the new round of currency wars September 11 2013 Buy leveraged companies ie Mechel, Rusal, Sistema, Gazprom, PIK September 4 August 23 2013 Russia Ideas Vote August 7 2013 Buy Mostotrest, TMK, HMS, Evraz Buy Gold, Silver Stocks Polyus and Polymetal Search the News (This news feed sources news from all over the internet not just midlincoln.com) Last Week and earlier December 6 US Employment Report 200K low paying jobs are added December 5 BoE Rate maintains rates (0.5%) and QE (at 375 bn L) Eurozone ECB rate is kept at 0.25% US GDP 2nd est surges to 3.6% in 3Q in the second revision December 4 Australia GDP at 2.3% below expectations Eurozone GDP grew exogenous 0.1% in Q3 US ADP Employment Report - Huge beat, US companies added more than 2 mln jobs US ISM non manufacturing slower in November Poland leaves Rate unchanged at 2.25% December 3 Australia RBA Overnight rate at 2.5% December 2 US ISM manufacturing rose to 57.3% Nov 26 South Africa GDP slow to 4 year low Nov 27 UK GDP is at 0.8% driven by consumption and investment Brazil rises interest rate to double digits Nov 28 Germany jobs fail to improve Germany November HICP rises more than expected Nov 29 Poland final GDP in line at 1.9% Eurozone Flash HICP accelerates pushing up silver, gold Nov 25 The minutes from BOJ's October policy meeting showed officials said attention should be paid to the downside risks Nov 19 Eurozone ZEW Showed Hope for Europe and in Germany Zew shows confidence is at 4 year high. AlsoGermany Business IFO Climate rises more than expected Brazil Inflation in mid November rises lessthan expected easing pressure on rates somewhat. China manufacturing index eases in November BoE Minutes deliver dovish message on interest rates - rates are to remain low even if unemployment falls. US price pressure is off even as sales rise. US CPI falls first time in 3 months while US Retail Sales up 0.4% in October slightly betterthan expected Thursday BOJ Rate kept constant, yen weakens Turkey rates left unchanged but one month repo auctions are ceased Nov 20 South Africa Rate is left unchanged which knocks out bits from rand BoJ Monthly Economic Report for November is strong despite that Japan cuts outlook on exporters on GEM weakness 12 Nov 2013 Germany HICP Final is at 3 year low Russian GDP expands less than forecast in Q3 Japan Key Machinery Orders unexpectedly down 13 Nov 2013 Japan GDP slowed less the expected in Q3 14 Nov 2014 Poland 3Q GDP Beats estimates with faster expansion since 2012 UK Retail Sales weak, fall 0.7% Eurozone GDP growth 0.1% in Q3. Poland CPI is stable supporting growth Eurozone HICP is only +0.7% and is supportive of the accommodative policy Nov 5 Australia RBA holds Rates European Commission downgrades growth for next yeaar from 1% to 0.1% Japan BOJ Minutes show even more accomodative policy is possible Nov 6 Poland NBP Rate is on hold, expectations of rate hikes pushed into 2014 Nov 7 Australia Unemployment rate at 5.7%, job creation is sluggish ECB Rate cut to 0.25% from 0.5%. Euro weakens US GDP 3Q grows 2.8% Friday US Employment Report Employers also added 60,000 more jobs in the previous two months than earlier estimated. CBR Repo Rate is left unchanged. Repo rates are still deeply below inflation, fueling more inflation. November 1 US ISM Manufacturing expands faster than forecast October 31 German and Eurozone Inflation lower than expected Eurozone job numbers flat October 29 India RBI -Interest Rate Meeting - RBI Raises rates US Retail Sales fall on weak car sales data Fed leaves Interest Rate Unchanged Oct 26 2013 IFO Business Climate in slight decline UK GDP is slightly better with 0.8% growth Oct 22 2013 US Payrolls climb less the forecast delaying expectations for stimulus US Retail Sales rescheduled for October 29 US Unemployment application drop October 22 US Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.2% Oct 23 2013 Australia Inflation is higher than estimated and the rate cuts are dropped South Africa Inflation rate falls to 6% BOE MPC Meeting minutes indicate recovery is robust, rises expectations of rate hikes October 14 Russia CBR Rate Meeting - no cut is possible European Currency Union Meeting October 15 Eurozone ZEW shows crisis is over October 16 Eurozone Inflation drops to lowest October 17 UK Retail Sales Hit 5 year high US CPI, Employment Report and the rest of the reports rescheduled due to shutdown October 18 China GDP growth is fastest but outlook is dim Results Google earnings rise 36% stock surges Goldman Sachs results are flat Bank of America profit higher on cost cutting October 13 US Gov shutdown - still no deal as default looms October 11 Germany September inflation at 1.6% October 10 BOE kept its interest rates at 0.5pct October 9 Japan Key Machinery Orders Jump to Highest since Lehman October 8 Alcoa delivers strong set of numbers while the market frets over the Government shutdown China inflation rose sharply in September Oct 4 Oct 3 Oct 2 ECB Interest Rate is left unchanged Oct 1 US ISM Manufacturing rose in Sep Sep 30 Hold a cut is more likely in February Sep 30 Sep 29 People’s Bank of China raised its daily reference rate Sep 29 China Inaugurates Shanghai Zone in Financial Reform Drive Sep 27 UK GDP 3Q estimate and final Sep 24 IFO Business Climate Rises Sep 24 Iranian president Ruhani talks to Obama Sep 23 German Federal Election Sep 22 China's PMI HSCB Index rose in September Sep 22 German Elections Sep 20 Brazil CPI rises 0.27% in August slightly below expectations Sep 19 RBI hikes repo rate to 7.5%, reduces MSF rate to 9.5% Sep 19 Fed Refrains From QE Taper, Keeps Bond Buying at $85 Bln Sep 19 UK Retail Sales Unexpectedly fall in August Sep 18 SA Consumer Price Index (CPI) breaches target range Sep 18 BoE Minutes Show Central Bank Not Planning Further Stimulus Sep 17 UK CPI Dips In Aug; Pushed Down By Petrol, Airfares Sep 17 US CPI Barely up in August Sep17 Eurozone Zew soars in August Sep 16 Meeting of Valdai Club Members begins Sep 16-Sep 19 Sep 13 UN submit Syria report Sep 13 Russia’s CBR keeps the rate at 8.25% focuses on funding against illiquid assets Sep 13 Polish CPI remains unchanged in August at 1.1% Sep 12 A Plea for Caution From Russia - Putin’s article Sep 12 Weak employment data takes heat out of Australian dollar Sep 11 German inflation eases to 1.5 pct in August Sep 10 Syria, America and Putin's Bluff Sep 10 China IP showed fastest growth YTD Sep 10 Navalny submits hundreds of complaints against mayor poll, demands halt to inauguration Sep 10 China Trade Data erase concernes Sep 10 BOJ Minutes: Many Said Fiscal Management Credibility Important to Keep Interest Rates Steady Sep 9 US congress decision on Syria bombing Sep 8 Moscow ections outcome shows state polls were fraud Sep 6 Russia GDP 2Q estimate at 1.2% US employment report - a mixed bag Sep 5 German finance minister’s, brief on Greece’s third financial assistance package BOJ rate unchanged, Kuroda revises econ outlook up ECB Rate flat, econ outlook is revised upward ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rises in August against expectations G20 in St. Petersburg - Syria, BRIC fund Sep 4 Eurozone GDP growth confirmed in the 2nd estimate retail sales rise Poland NBP holds rate and sees rates steady Australia GDP Growth Beats Expectations but Mining Boom End Beckons Sep 3 Advanced economies growing again but some emerging economies slowing, says OECD RBA holds rates, num on policy outlook US ISM Manufacturing Points to Growth Sep 2 Moscow exchange starts t+2 trading Sep 1 China Economy Strengthens as Factory Gauge at 16-Month High in August Aug 30 Consumer prices climb in Japan, retail sales fall Aug 29 Brazil rate hike to 9% Aug 28 South Africa's economy rebounded in the second quarter, growing at 3.0 percent Aug 27 Tiffany reported higher revenues, higher net income and tripling of free cash flow in Q2 2013. Aug 27 German Ifo business climate rises to 16-month high of 107.5 in August Aug 26 At Jackson Hole Meeting Central bankers debate withdrawing global liquidity Aug 23 UK GDP Revised Upward In Second Quarter Aug 22 Upbeat China August flash HSBC PMI points to stabilizing growth Aug 22 HP posts worse than expected financial results as profit sinks 15 percent Aug 22 Target warns on annual profit, cites cautious shoppers Aug 22 US Leading Indicators Aug 21 Key Passages From Fed Minutes Aug 21 South African CPI rises more-than-expected Aug 20 BHP Billiton results highlight insignificance of South African operations Aug 20 Glencore Xstrata Takes $8.47 Billion Charge Aug 20 Home Depot's excellent second-quarter results Aug 19 Shares rebound after RBA minutes Aug 16 Inflation steady as exports in eurozone grow Aug 15 Wall Street was down sharply on Thursday due to weak results from Cisco, Wal-Mart. Aug 15 Wal-Mart results hit by tough markets as Asda growth slows Aug 15 US consumer inflation rises to 2% Aug 15 There will be seven additions and 3 deletions from the MSCI ACWI Standard Index Aug 14 BOE Minutes Show Less Stimulus Support Aug 14 Another recession over as Q2 GDP grows 0.3% Aug 14 Poland's annual inflation accelerates to 1.1% in July Wednesday, double the estimate Aug 14 Poland's GDP Growth Accelerates In Q2 Aug 14 French Inflation Accelerates In July Aug 13 U.S. retail sales data points to improving economy Aug 13 Upbeat German and Eurozone ZEW sentiment data Aug 13 UK inflation rate falls to 2.8% in July Aug 13 Germany's Jul HICP +1.9% Y/Y; Core Infl 1.8% Y/Y Aug 12 Machinery Orders Bright Sign For Japan Sales Tax Advocates Q2 2013 Wal-Mart Gets Ready For Russia Aug 10 China's Credit Expansion Slows as Li Curbs Shadow Banking Aug 10 A Japanese Crisis Nears Aug 9 China’s PMI confirms severe Asian weakness Aug 9 UK Unemployment Seen Unchanged as BOE Puts Jobs in Spotlight Aug 9 Dollar Edges Off Seven-Week Low, China Production Data In Focus Aug 9 China’s production figures suggest economy is stabilising Aug 9 Global shares, oil prices firm as China data improves Aug 9 Global export leaders Germany and China have logged increased foreign trade, adding to signs of rising global demand. Experts surmise, however, that a full-blown economic recovery is not yet a reality. Aug 9 RBA Singing a New Tune on Rate Cuts
Aug 8 China’s Iron Ore Imports Surge to Record High Aug 8 Rio Tinto half-year profit plunges by 71 per cent Aug 8 BoJ and BoK vote to keep interest rates unchanged Aug 5 July US ISM non-manufacturing PMI 56.0 vs 53.0 exp Aug 1 China PMI could mark end of negative data surprises |
