it's not yet obvious, but developments in the Russian oil & gas sector such as emergence of state oil and gas companies, growing importance of Gazprom and especially of Rosneft could lead to further disbalances in Russian sector economics.

My favorite research piece back from 2011. Written following Emelianenko Monson fight and all the booing. Hugely timely notice of upcoming trouble.

Is Russia on the Path of Becoming a Frontier Market?

The same topic again - venezualisation of Russia.

Contact Sport of Russian M&A

What thoughts come to your mind when you hear that the key founding shareholder of Russian social network "Vkontakte" has been accused of ....

Looking for the Center of Financial Mass

If you try to estimate where the current center of financial mass is as a point on the surface of Earth — a weighted average of geographic coordinates of various stock exchanges weighted by the value traded at those exchanges — it’s 34.7 degrees of northern latitude and 23.9 degrees of eastern longitude. ...

Russia's Economic Epic

The world so far looks somewhat similar to last year. Most factors affecting the business environment and financial markets are similar to last year's. Global economic growth ...

Trends for 2012 and 2013 | The Moscow Times

In a world pictured as a big village, a country is probably pictured as house. Just like an old house, with its known and unknown problems, with parts undergoing renovation and new construction and parts where constant ...

Pussy Riot Verdict, What will the market say?

Market will most likely be negatively affected by the sentence (read this article in Russian or translate)...

Privatization of the Pension System Delayed

In the ongoing discussion on the future of the Russian pension system's reform, some officials are offering to cancel investment or a private component of the pension and to retain only the basic component guaranteed ...

Trends on the Russian M&A Market: Theory vs. Practice

The start of 2012 was pretty gloomy for M&A bankers; 2011 had just finished on a very uncertain note, and politicians in Europe were unable to ...

A Pre-election Buy-Back

Read or translate this article which is in Russian on former VTB buyback

Will Fast Russian Companies Ever Emerge?

In 1999, we saw the economy strongly shifting away from oil and gas toward industrial and service sectors. Import substitution boomed, local production flourished, Internet businesses started ....

New IPOs Get Squeezed by the Size of Gazprom

First, I want to highlight the following statistics: Russia has only 26 companies in MSCI Russia index vs. MSCI South Africa 50 companies, MSCI India 73 companies, MSCI Brazil 78 companies, MSCI South ...

History of Russia's IPOs as Reflected in the MSCI Russia Index

Russia's stock market evolution is difficult, but the progress is unpreventable. It is reflected in the changing composition of Russia's benchmark MSCI Standard index, which spans 90 percent of Russia's .....

AvtoVAZ — an Ongoing Problem

Built in 1970 under Prime Minister Kosygin, AvtoVAZ played a major part in the collapse of the Soviet Union and is still a problem.

The Last Convergence Attempt – State Firms Must Focus on Profit and Dividends

Russia was on a straight course to liberalization of its property, when in the middle of the road it realized that property liberalization should be delayed and for a .....

Small Business Vanishes

There are all kinds of small business owners in Russia. Some of them operate clubs and restaurants, some run Western-style advertisement, IT or legal consulting business

The Future Landscape of the Russian Stock Market

The crisis will fade away one day. On that day, companies will start forecasting year-on-year earnings growth instead of growing declines. The stock market will survive, but its landscape is likely to change significantly.

Boosting Russia's Export Trade

When the crisis cracked down on the Russian economy last November -- the first remedy suggested by most of the economists was a diversification of economy.

Alchemists Sought Philosopher's Stone, Investors Prefer Gas

The stock market is all about information. Information and news are intangible things, like gases, in the air or space around us, mixing with other gases, changing their pressure and spread...

Weekly Publications

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June 19/2014 World Cup versus World War

Markets are less important for the next 3 weeks. Despite that it feels overall horrible and scary on global markets as US is prepared for further withdrawal from stimulus. Europe is in comatoze economic crisis chasing figments of growth. China is balancing on the edge of and is pushed into currency wars. India and Brazil are choking on stagflation.

July 11/2014 Charts and Datamine

Portuguese bond yields rise / Portuguese Equities Fall/OIL Price Technicals Point UP / Gold Price Surges on ME Instability /

ML GEMs May 27 Portfolio Performance

Since Last rebalancing on May 5 we have done well in Brazil, China and SA and SK. On a relative terms Brazil and China. We have been less successful in Russia and India universes

Since inception on Feb 3 our strategy yielded good results in absolute terms China, Brazil, Russia and South Korea. On the relative basis we are doing better than benchmark only in China and Russia. We are doing OK in South Korea, but we are doing poorly in India and Turkey. And we still underperform by c.13% to MSCI GEM benchmark on relative basis.

Midlincoln Weekly May 26 - Econ/Politics/Stocks etc.

Russian Railways paid billions to secretive firms../A state-owned rail giant, run by an old friend of President Vladimir Putin, has awarded vast sums to contractors who disguise their ownership, a Reuters investigation has found..../Russia’s botched hospital operation .../Medical project helped fund 'Putin’s palace.../kraine must work with Russia: President candidate/.../Russian Prime Minister Medvedev Visits Crimea/.../Competing Visions for Russia's Economic Future/.../UPDATE 2-SocGen keeps faith with Russia investment/.../Actually, Russia's Population Isn't Shrinking/.../Russia-China Natural Gas Pipeline to Create New Global Price .../.../Lukoil Gains as Putin Pullback Eases Tension: Russia Overnight/.../Ukraine Crisis: Russia Debt Insurance Spikes to Three-Year High as .../.../ Or http://www.midlincoln.com/testjs/Countrypres.php?v=INdownload a PDF file for Russia

Datamine and Charts May 23

Iron Curtain Line for Russian stocks

Some signs of Chinese property bubble start bursting

Turkey focus on investment helps to heal wounds from shocks quickly

Key resistance for Indian stock market broken

Trubistan - To the East of Byzantium

SA-shares perfect gold proxy

3 Chinese stocks that were down over 50% this year are up 200%+ in the last 5 years

Chocolate Time

Thailand stocks -pretty cool despite coup

Notes From Midwest - Some gas for your sweatshop May 21

Now finally Russia is in long term gaseous relationships with China. The deal that took almost 20 years has only become possible amid Russia's route with europe and the west and that was probably the lever that made the deal possible.

From our point of view - Gazprom's CEO Alexey Miller for long time has been opposing the deal with China as he was concentrating on gas supplies to 500 mln europeans. Europe was Miller's key focus as he did not want to look anywhere else to sell his gas. The pricing issue was only an excuse for Miller to delay an agreement with China while he was focusing on building north route to Europe and preparing for south route.

Notes from Midwest -- Russia, Turkey, US search for transition of power mechanisms May 15

Current leaders in Turkey and in Russia came to power at approximately the same time, with the same sort of support coming from the US and from the US oriented elites. They both stayed in power for over 10 years, while it looks as if US examining power transition strategy for both leaders it used to support as fragile democratic institutes are at stake in both countries.

A glance back, shows that US always supported current Turkish and Russian leadership ever since the beginning.

Midlincoln GEMs Rebalancing May 6

We generally done okay and inline with our benchmark MSCI GEM Index, posting performance of c. -0.3% while MSCI GEM Index decline 0.2% in the same period.

We done well in China, Russia, S.Korea and Brazil where we outperformed respective benchmarks by 482bpts, 296bpts, 145 bpts and 32 btps respectively. We have done poorly in India, S Africa and Turkey

Econ and Politics May 5

Ukraine releases protesters; Prime Minister visits Odessa after blaze Russia's economy Ukraine situation has altered Russia investment risks -Norway ...Actually, Russia's Population..

Charts and Datamine May 2 Edition

Market is always wrong timing the FED/Gas price volatility is a bad leading indicator/Lower oil price as Saudis ramp up production to meet seasonal increase in demand/Ukraine age pyramid-broken symmetry/Raping of Europe/Ukraine bull markets/Uneasy job to promote Russia/China, Russia biggest underperformers in GEM equities/Spanish yields sustainable?

Midlincoln GEMs April 30

Overall since inception on Feb 3 we have done well in China and Russia. We have done OK in SK. We have done poorly in Brazil, India, Turkey and SA.

Since rebalancing on Apr 2, in relative terms we have done well in Russia and SK. We have done well in absolute terms

Weekly April 29 2014

Russian stocks suffered as Yandex, listed on NASDAQ, was attacked by high profile Russian politician with roots in KGB who linked US traded Russian internet company to US secret service. Some say that the motive behind an attack on Yandex is to push US traded company to list shares on the exchange in Moscow. While it is also possible that tycoon Alisher Usmanov, a businessman with closer links to Kremlin then recently sanctioned Timchenko, has been behind the move. Usmanov who started his career as a nominee holder of assets for Kremlin (e.g. he held 5% of Gazprom on behalf of Gazprom itself), owns Yandex competitor Mail.ru. While his recently grabbed another internet resource Vkontakte, while the founder of that service was pushed out.

EconPolitics April 28

kraine crisis: US will expand sanctions on Russian power brokers...Arseny Yatseniuk, Ukraine Prime Minister, Says Russia Wants To ......Storm Clouds Strike Russian Economy as S&P Cuts Debt Rating...Ukraine situation has altered Russia investment risks -Norway ......Russia's population up by 800000 since 2010 - statistics...3 risks from the Ukraine crisis...Russian budget

Midlincoln GEMs April 24

Overall we have done well in China and Russia. We have done poorly in Brazil, India, Turkey and SA

Since rebalancing, we have done well in Brazil and China

We have done well in Brazil and in China since last rebalancing....

Weekly April 23 2014 Sell in May is getting closer. Will the market sell off this time?

Markets are fairly resilient so far this year. Developed and emerging markets are flat overall YTD as measured by Dow Jones and MSCI GEM indexes. While some emerging markets like Turkey and India did pretty well rising c.8% at least in local currency terms.

April 21 Midlincoln Econ and Politics

Russia US vice president heads to Ukraine after fragile truce shattered Ukrainian prime minister: Russia wants "to restore the Soviet Union" Ukraine backlash could result in 0% Russia GDP growth Neptune's Burnett adds peripheral banks ahead...

Apr 18 Datamine Average S&P earnings growth 2Q 2007 to Now the lowest in this cycle. Inflation is zilch. Housing component is highest only since 2008. DM energy stocks is the way to go on Emerging Markets

Weekly April 16 2014 We maintain our positive view on GEMs in the long run this year and also maintain our cautiously positive stance GEMs in the.

Econ Politics April 14

Hi, this is a initial stage version of our integral country product. It is still in the development mode - but we decided to flash the first version. Please click on links below to go to respective country...

April 8 Weekly- Emerging Markets strength at test

Mood is still upbeat on emerging markets, while Russia due to its ambition in Ukraine is seen as a drag. Investors therefore are likely to focus their attention elsewhere e.g. on Turkey and Brazil.

Apr 4 Datamine

Ignore ADP/ Australia Stock Rally Shows China Link / Spanish Yields Approaching US Treasuries/ Cash Kings Get Richer / Irone Ore Prices Down 18% YTD / This rally is compared to 1982 rally and 1987 crash

April 2 Portfolio Rebalancing

Russia New Shorts Rusal /NovaTek OAO Old Shorts FGC UES JSC/ Inter RAO JSC/Rostelecom Removed Shorts RusHydro JSC /TMK OAO

Russia New Longs Tinkoff CS /Mobile Telesystems OJSC Old Longs Gazpromneft/ Severstal OAO/ Moscow Exchange/ Removed Longs Yandex/MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC

April 1 Out of developed and into emerging markets

Markets are cheering as Russia decided to give Crimea back to Ukraine. While warren Buffett decided to lift its ban on investing into Russian stocks and bought some Rosneft.

But one a more serious note, it does look that the trade out of developed and into emerging markets stocks is gathering force.

March 26 Okay we have Vladimir but is there new Ruric

We reinstating our positive view on GEMs in the long run this year, after a period of volatility, while we take cautiously positive stance for GEMs in the short term. At this point it looks like Russia did let Ukraine go and join Europe while it got Crimea instead.

US and European sanctions that put on the list people from Putin’s inner circle, though painful for these persons, do not matter much for Putin, and the rest of Russia, especially given that people affected have been targets of internal power struggles.

March 24 CRIMEa shift - Oligarchs no longer needed From the start - Putin was building an empire out of Russia. While his empire building was resting not on military might but on the creation of loyal elites. Putin had to create his elites in a fairly short time span. Corruption was an obvious way to aid elite creation under time pressure.

20 March Econ Politics

his is a first version of our integral country product. It is still in the development mode - but we decided to flash the first version. Please click on links below to go to respective country page or...

March 13 Nagorno-Crimea Region

Investors don’t want to bet on what Putin is likely to do to Ukraine move in his army or not. They’d rather move their money out and bet on who is it going to be in WC finals Brazil, Argentina, Germany or Spain.

Mar 3 Russia - Ukraine fallout can open Europe to central asian, middle eastern and US hydrocarbons.

No doubt that timing of the events in Ukraine had been planned to coincide with olympic games. It might be that Putin reaction to the events on Maidan after Olympics has also been anticipated.

Putin decided that he can use the moment to take over Crimea a tiny peninsula in black sea - an ancient port, enclave of Russia during Soviets that was granted by Khrushchev to Ukraine in 1960s.

But the price might be to high for Russia. Putin might be manipulated into the route with Ukraine that will cause Russia significant loss of the hydrocarbon market share in Europe, that will be substituted with new supply.

Feb 23 Maidan Victory - The end of the Stalin's Soviet Project – Return of Leon Trotsky's Permanent Revolution.

Granada, Granada, Granada... This poem so familiar to every Soviet person, for its very musical 2 beat amphibrach, which at times ascends into 2 beat accentual verse so popular in English nursery rhymes, Mikhail Svetlov wrote in 1926....It has nothing directly to do with events in Spain. It was written 10 years before the outbreak of the civil war in Spain, and only distantly is connected to the Spanish civil war....While most of the text is cryptic...

Feb 17 Economist Futurist Cover

Emerging markets are stabilising as their central banks are coping with pressure.

India, Brazil, Turkey have managed to stay very close to the curve and moved in due time when pressure on currency mounted and inflation surged.

Russian CB is slightly behind, unable to move aggressively on rates afraid of sinking the banking system.

Feb 11 Could emerging markets state companies’ debts be like subprime

Emerging market normalisation is likely to continue.Things are slightly calmer on the emerging markets this week. Emerging markets have halted free fall. Turkey rebound, Brazil inflation and ECB sticking to low rates policy has been a source of optimism for GEMs. Russian markets were additionally supported by Oilympics that despite lots of criticism proved so far a success.

Feb 3 What if BRICST become PIIGS

What if the time has come and emerging markets are going to pay for developed market crisis?

Years of printing of dollars, euro and yen helped to sustain crisis in the west. But soaring EM rates, depleting GEM reserves and depreciating currencies signal that emerging markets could end up picking the check for DM normalisation.

January 27 Ukraine, second buying opportunity far away

In Russia stocks of exporters are somewhat supported as ruble succumbs to dollar but domestic stocks are under pressure. Turkey is still in pain as graft scandal still on.

South Africa shares are weak as gold, platinum prices down and strike is planned for Platinum belt. Indian stocks are weaker ahead of monetary policy meeting while steel stocks are unfavored and IT stocks decline.

January 21 Mildly positive start

A year did start slightly mad with record cold in the US, Maidan square in Ukraine turning into Tahrir, US Navy Ships pooling towards Sochi to insure security during olympics (start Feb 7)., Bangkok is under emergency rule on protests and Zimbabwe’s Mugabe is very old and is likely to give up his power eventually.,

January 13 Looking for possible GEM returns on macro

We start examining opportunities for stocks in our focus countries.

For investors seeking dollar returns, the best equity risk premiums are for China, Chile, South Africa. For Turkey, Russia and Poland, equity risk premiums are tiny, therefore we expect that stock markets will still remain unpopular vs. bonds. For India and Brazil the equity premium is most likely negative.

January 6 Corruption scandals are holding emerging markets back

A scandal in Turkey, suicide of chief of key state enterprise in China, booing of Zuma at Mandela funeral in South Africa, arrest of the key billionaire in Iran and lots of corruption scandals in Russia where just recently another former KGB general that was supposed to oversee Sochi investing was fired from the presidential administration staff highlight a common problem for the emerging markets - that is middle class reaction to the possible corruption involving state officials and their pocket oligarchs. Corruption scandals lead to political instability and that knocks out bits and pieces from country risk.

December 30 Terrorism shows that Russians have enemies

Russians grief in mourning over people who died in terrorist attacks. There are no answers to the question who is behind the terror attacks. No terror organisation claimed anything openly. Most people link the events to olympiad, but there are other theories abundant including bunch of conspiracy theories.

December 23 Doctor Sends Had-a-cough-ski to Germany for Rehab

Though holidays are almost here, markets are not calm. Holliday week is likely to be not easy for emerging markets.

China is tumbling as short term rates on the rise, investors fear crisis is near.

In SA Zuma booed at Mandela’s funeral amid corruption allegations.

Turkey tumbles amid corruption investigation and arrest of Halkbank executives

December 16 Wide diversification ahead of 2014

i think that markets will perform something of a Christmas rally in the upcoming week but in this weekly i attempt to start thinking of our investment outlook for 2014 with full document coming out later.

Investing becomes an odd process. Downgrade by a big 3 rating agency is almost always a buying signal and vice versa. So was the US downgrade in 2011. ....

December 9 Remembering Mandela

In the 90ties world faced 2 huge transformations- fall of apartheid in South Africa and the fall of the Soviet Union. On one occasion Nelson Mandela met with Boris Yeltsin in spring of 1999 in Moscow. Moscow was lying in ruins of asian financial crisis when Yeltsin and Mandela met. wo great revolutionaries of the 20th century met 5 years after the fall of apartheid in South Africa and almost 8 years after the fall of Soviet Union... read more

December 2 LV - Louis Vuitton or Lenin Vladimir?

Russian politicos could probably be even thinking in terms of Soviet Union and Czech and 1968 if other things fail and Ukraine is astray and on its way to Europe.

At any rate if things take longer than Sochi Olympics, Russia is likely to become far more aggressive with its pressure in Ukraine.

The consumers sectors are also under pressure as giant Louis VuItton suitcase installation is removed from red square. Some Russians wonder however what is abbreviature of LV stands for - it might be Lenin Vladimir whose is still rests on red square while Russians still undecided which one to worship.

November 25 Iranian Gold Likely to Press on Prices

Oil price is likely to stay elevated as Israeli keep threatening Iran with the attack amid the country reached the nuclear deal that it will stop enriching uranium of 6 months. Also no new oil supply is expected from the deal while gold sales by Iran could increase.

November 20 We have good news from China, oh sorry, we have bad news from China.

Last week risk was supported by Chinese reform promise and promise of gradual liberalisation of yuan rate and credit rates in china. This week the credit crunch in china is in spotlight as well as actually in many other emerging as well as developed markets where rates are high due to pricing pressures such as China, Australia, Russia.

And if US rates are bound to increase, this will cause lots of leveraged players to go belly up.

November 11 2013 Nothing dies harder than a bad idea

DM stocks are somewhat supported while emerging market stocks are slumping as dollar strengthens, bonds weaken as US economy improves and tapering nears.

Iran deal can be damaging for the oil price, as the last bit of risk premium is knocked out from the price of oil with Iran reaching compromise with atomic energy agency.

European weaker economy as projected for 2014 can put stress again on peripheral parts of europe and Turkey as well.

November 4 2013 Its Europe’s turn in currency wars.

Quite intense week in terms of data. Europeans have their say in currency wars this week. The euro is likely to be weaker, dollar stronger and risk appetite slightly smaller.

In Russia its a national unity day, which celebrates an event in history which lead to establishment of Romanov’s family. In the course of those historic events, Russians defeated Polish invaders and kicked them out from Russia.

October 28 2013 Oil is devil’s shit.

Instead of focusing on discussion of whatever Fed can do on Wednesday i would like to highlight the irony with developing the oil and gas sector in Russia. Staking anything at all on success of developing Russia's hydrocarbons sector could lead to scarcity of toilet paper in Moscow once again.

October 21 2013 Printing continues, default avoided, European crisis is over, China is growing - what else You Need? Another FOMC meeting in focus.

Bunch of stats will be released in the US this week and the next which were delayed due to shutdown. Nominal per capital GDP highlighted for former CIS countries.

October 14 2013 US events unfolding -- what is it a move in currency wars or real default possibility

Its the second week of 3q results season with Google, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America results coming up. Adding to the disturbance could be the beginning of Detroit bankruptcy hearings on Tuesday. This time, emerging markets are positively highlighted on the back of US debt ceiling debates as well as possible US default or downgrade. The major source of optimism for emerging markets is US dollar ...

October 7 2013 From Russia into Venezuela and Iran

This summer MSCI announced its decision to reclassify the MSCI Qatar and MSCI UAE Indices from Frontier Markets to Emerging Markets and the MSCI Morocco Index from Emerging Markets to Frontier Markets...

September 30 2013 Possible US Debt Downgrade, Putin’s fifth term and lower oil price

Turkish stocks looks especially well set if oil price declines, but global growth will feed through into emerging markets. Investors are likely to be picking up Turkey in this backdrop...

September 16 2013 Syria, Oil Price, Fed taper

This week is likely to be price negative for risk assets as risk appetite recedes as Fed prepares to taper...

September 9 2013 Moscow Election, Syria, CBR cut?

A vote on Syria can press on the negative side while Chinese data, higher oil price and possible rate cut could press on the upside. The result is somewhat neutral to small positive stock performance for Russian stocks...

September 2 2013 Come Back on the Labor Day?

One popular investors tactics is to sell in May and then to come back and buy on the labor day. This year it could have worked would Fed not decided to taper liquidity and would middle east tensions not escalate...

August 26 2013 Syria, Uralkali and possibly slower US and capital flight from GEM.?

As it look most of the numbers coming out this week are to signal weak set of economic inputs therefore but not bad enough for the Fed to delay tapering of stimulus which is a worst combination and is likely to imply weaker stock markets...

August 19 2013 Will bonds money make it into equities?

They should. Gold strength implies investors are searching for a path away from fixed income into gold e.g. Their next step could be going for equities on a much wider scale, as gold investing is sort of dull...

August 12 2013 Possible China soft landing, better DM growth and help from weak ruble

Russia is stagnating as result of weaker global backdrop for the emerging markets but mainly because of the increased regulation by the government which decided to drive the economy in manual shift mode back in 2009 and can’t switch into automatic mode since then. We are almost back in soviet economic setup where the achievement of certain economic sector was primarily the achievement the respective sector minister....

August 5 2013 Travel Warnings, Elections Season Highlighted

Iran in the next 10 years with its 80 mln people and 1.2% population growth rate will add another 10 mln in population and is set to overcome Germany in population. With its natural resource base e.g. Iran has largest gas reserves in the world, Iran can become an influential regional power, slightly less populous than Egypt and a lot less populous than Pakistan, but due to its natural resource base - much more influential and probably the most influential country in north Africa, central asia and the middle east.

July 29 2013 Atlass is almost forgotten

China's government has ordered companies to close factories in 19 industries. The affected industries include steel, cement, copper and glass. Politburo asked panies to close outright some 1400 plants are about to be shut down. That could potentially improve global prices in material sectors that were badly hurt by CHinese overproduction. On the other hand measure is likely to affect badly Chinese GDP and some commentators are now talking about 3% average growth for China for the next 5 years. Ouch!

July 22 2013 Buy Before Elections or After?

International markets are likely to be weaker as muni problems surface in the US and Chinese financials stocks decline and weaker US sectors report 2Q results. However Russian stocks that have been laggards this year could end up immune to international problems temporarily cheering to Navalny who is still free.

Is Detroit contagious? Bondholders are nervously awaiting a federal judge’s decision on Detroit’s request on July 18 for bankruptcy protection as it seeks relief from a staggering $18.5 billion debt. A federal bankruptcy judge has scheduled a hearing for August 28 to determine if the city is eligible for Chapter 9 shelter....

July 15 2013 Bernanke supports US bond prices, doesn't want to scare Chinese

Our view of the markets was slightly bearish for the week and we were wrong, as US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke decided to provide support to US bond prices, talking them up. Coincidentally last week main political event was the US China talks held on Wednesday and Thursday in Washington which were attended by Yang Jiechi, a key figure in setting China's foreign policy and Vice Premier Wang Yang. From the US side the meeting was hosted by Secretary of State John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew while President Joe Biden also attended...

July 8 2013 US Earnings Season will be overshadowed by China Stats

Kazan University Games

The world university games opening ceremony was held yesterday in Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan republic. After opening show that went on for 4 hours, the athletes and guests were greeted by Vladimir Putin at about midnight.

Kazan games were on the list of events that was supposed to drive up infrastructure investment in Russia. The total money spent in preparation to the games topped 300bn Rub (c US$10bn). The things that were constructed included

11 large arenas as well as smaller gyms. Kazan saw construction of new airport terminal, rail way station and a bus transit hub, 65 km of roads as well as some metro lanes.

Alerts

Feb 18 2014 AvtoVAZ 200 mln loss

In the mid 1960s, the Soviet Union decided its economy needed a reform. Following a heated discussion in the media, in the party Central Committee and in the academy of sciences, the then-prime minister Alexei Kosygin chose the model offered by Kharkov’s economist Yevsei Liberman as the basis for reform. The idea was to change the criteria by which the efficiency

Nov 18 2013 Kazan plane crash highlights troubled topic of Russian transport infrastructure?

A catastrophe in Kazan is tragic. By coincidence it occurred at a time when the policy makers are discussing Kazan transport routes. Whether or not to build a rapid train track link and to launch fast train service between Moscow and Kazan. Alternative project is ironically focuses on connecting distant Russian parts by air and to invest into airport infrastructure and airlines.

Aug 3 2013 Travel Warnings. Is something cooking in the Middle East?

Analysts had been speculating for long time ahead that something may happen in Iran this summer after the elections in the country. Especially if elections yield a president which will be unable to stop Iran’s nuclear arms effort. In particular some analysts specifically pointed to Ramadan as a possible time window for escalation in the middle east.

July 18 2013 Navalny jailed. Sell?

Alexey Navalny and his business partner Petr Ofitserov have been sentenced to 5 and 4 years jail terms respectively. Rumors are that the court decision could drive crowds out on the streets in Moscow this evening in the same manner as protests erupted in December of 2011. Back then the stocks that were the most vulnerable to protests included Novatek and Rosneft declining 17% and 10% respectively in a couple of weeks following eruption of protests. RTS declined 12% despite high oil price and fairly stable macro backdrop.

Daily Morning Meeting

US economic success weighs on markets

Russian stocks are lower as president upset that he lost investors support adopts the law which undermines pension investing. Also investors behave just as would Stanislavski predict, not believing into manipulation, that Khodorkovsky will be freed before Olympics.

ADP report weighs on markets

Stocks tanked on Wednesday, India and Turkey were the only 2 exception, their stock markets managed to climb +1.5% and +0.5% respectively. The biggest loser is Nikkey down 1.5%, Indonesian and SA stocks are also among the biggest losers down 1.5 and 1.1% respectively.

December 3 Aussie’s central bank 2 cents in the war of currencies

Aussie central bank moves shows that global rates will be low until that either all central banks quit QE at the same time. This should supports the markets in long term

November 12 UN sanctions if removed can push oil

The last week’s trend is set to continue, DM stocks are somewhat supported while emerging market stocks are slumping. Turkey was leading on the way down yesterday. Finishing 2.4% down. Russian GDRs were the second worst index down 0.7%. Indian stocks finished 0.4% down. While Brazil was up almost a percentage point and Shanghai composite today is adding 0.9%. Asian stocks are higher today. Hang Seng is up 0.9%.

Nov 8 2013 US 3q GDP, Twitter IPO, ECB rate and MSCI Rebalance and Frank S&P Downgrade

ECB makes surprising rate cut. US GDP is on healthy growth path up 28% in 3q slightly better than expected. MSCI announced that it removed 3 stocks from Russian universe. There are only 22 stocks will be left in MSCI Russia. Russia’s official equity universe, measured by benchmark shrunk to 22 stocks from 27 in the beginning of 2013. Welcome to Venezuela! S&P Frank’s downgrade adds to euro weakness from ECB decision.

Twitter IPO cements the trend - sell Exxon and buy tech stocks and this time its not like 1999. This time its for real.

Nov 7 2013 Its ECB rate decision and Draghi comments vs. US GDP 3q growth estimates in a battle of currencies today

Strangely the dollar might come a winner if it loses versus euro on weaker than expected growth numbers. Overall effect on risk appetite from that dollar weakness is complex but on a simplified view risk appetite is likely to be better.

Nov 6 2013 Downgraded european growth estimates weigh down on risk

In the news weaker eurozone growth projection announced by EU commision, and wage growth likely lagging cpi advances in Japan. ISM non manufacturing index in the US was slightly better in October,

Nov 5 2013 Risk appetite is just a notch weaker but should be supported

Stocks are slightly higher as S&P finished up 0.36%. iBovespa is the leader with 0.78% gain, Polish WIG is up 0.71% and the gauge of Russian GDRs in London up 0.5%. The weakest set of stocks included China where Shanghai composite was down 1%, Hang Seng is down 0.9% while Kospi lost 0.7%.

Nov 1 2013 Fed leaves QE on to support bond rates but for how long?

Stocks are weaker overall especially in dollar terms. Nikkey leads on the way down with 1.76% fall. Turkey was down 1.6% yesterday as well. Poland is down 0.9%, Russia finished 0.4% down for the RTS. Somewhat better supported was India stock market on the back of stronger performance of state banks shares

October 31 2013 Fed leaves QE on to support bond rates

Stocks finished slightly stronger yesterday as Fed kept the QE on with aim to support bond rates and keep them low. Additionally positive was German inflation data which showed inflation weakened in October in the country.

Stocks in Hong Kong, SA and India were notably stronger, while stocks in Turkey, Indonesia and Poland dipped slightly.

October 30 2013 Front Running the Fed - was the most profitable trade of last 5 years

All eyes are on the FOMC meeting. I think that the meeting will finally result with initiation of tapering by the Fed. But this view is quite contrarian.

October 29 2013 All calm ahead of FOMC meeting tomorrow

Stocks prices are slightly higher iBovespa is the strongest gainer +1.7% on Monday, followed by Hang Seng and Nikkei. Indian stocks were laggards ahead of RBI meeting today. US stocks are unchanged ahead of retail sales data today. In Russia Magnit was supported on good numbers

October 25 2013 This time we have some good news from China, but stocks fall anyway

Stock prices are down. India stocks down 1.2%. Brazil stocks are down 1% as banks fall. Chinese HSBC PMI is quite healthy pointing to 7.5% increase but despite that China stocks are down again 0.7% today versus yesterday

October 24 2013 We have some good news, oops sorry we have some bad news from China

Chinese banks shares are very weak on concerns that China banks are at stress. Major banks were writing off bad debt. On another note property prices were very strong implying some curbing of liquidity is possible by PBC.

MPC minutes in UK hinted at possible rate hike.

October 23 2013 Trailing US payrols support view that Fed tapering will be delayed.

Stocks were mixed yesterday. While S&P 500 Index gained 0.5% and South African shares were up 1% Micex index declined 0.6% and Shanghai composite declined 0.4%.

October 22 2013 Chinese consumption boost means higher refrigerator demand

Chinese communist party is recalibrating economy towards consumption. On the back of these efforts Chinese biggest refrigerator manufacturer Qingdao Haier jumped 10% yesterday.

October 21 2013 Chinese consumption boost means higher refrigerator demand

Chinese communist party is recalibrating economy towards consumption. On the back of these efforts Chinese biggest refrigerator manufacturer Qingdao Haier jumped 10% yesterday.

October 18 2013 How do you want your China stats today?

Putin is again manipulating investors expectations, this time unable to match expectations on dividend front - demanding that state companies pay only at most 25% payout ratio, -- way below of average for GEM stocks.

October 17 2013 US lawmakers are close to a debt deal

Support at last as US debt deal is close to get through

October 16 2013 Slightly more volatile on Fitch

Fitch places US on watch negative, European finance ministers are still divided on banks regulation and detroit bankruptcy hearings begin in the US

July 30 2013 CBR Gives first 9bn$ to Banks

CBR was very generous and gave out 300bn Rub - roughly 9bn$ at a rate of 5.75% just 50bpts above the CBR repo rate for bonds.

The fear on the market was the banks will turn around and will buy dollars with this liquidity. As they did once in 1994 when CBR tried similar mechanism. But that did not happened this time and ruble was just a notch weaker.

July 25 2013 Public servicemen a problem on Emerging Markets

Russian corporate governance is less of a problem this year as state companies start to pay chunky dividends and firms are required to file international accounting standards financials.

Furthermore companies with more than 50% free float are starting gradually to emerge on a horizon in Russia. While they remain stable and well managed i.e Lukoil, Magnit, Yandex.

Corruption, lack of trust and integrity

What remain a bigger problem in Russia is corruption, lack of trust and lack of integrity as manifested by various guilty court verdicts, laud corruption cases and very superficial service of public employees across many sectors, from government to state companies to schools to medical services....

July 17 2013 China focuses on consumption Russia on investment.

Russian consumption boom is leveling off

International retailers and consumer companies which invested in Russia 10 years ago are reporting stellar profits and are sending money back home. Thus Achaun will pay its owners in France 300 mln$ in dividends on the back of financial year that saw almost 10bn$ revenues and 1bn$ in gross profit.

Mcdonald's will get 150mn$ in dividends from its Russian operations and Ikea which grossed 3.4$bn in Russia last year reported net income of roughly 220mn$.

July 16 2013 Russia is Number 6 in PPP Dollars.

PM Medvedev has commented on what is most likely being a bogus WB report that places Russian GDP into number 5 rankings in PPP dollars, surpassing Germany. I have seen the report previously in a PDF file in of FB chats, and it looked bogus to me. According to IMF world outlook database the difference between Russian and German PPP dollars GDP is at least 20%-30% with Russian GDP being 2.6 PPP $ trln while Germany 3.2 PPP $ trln. WB probably mixed things up. Here is the table from IMF data on PPP rankings as well as nominal

GEMs Portfolio

March 24

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Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS / Arcelik AS / BIM Birlesik Magazalar AS / Turk Telekomunikasyon AS / TAV Havalimanlari Holding AS /

Midlincoln GEMs Portfolio March 17

Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS / Arcelik AS / BIM Birlesik Magazalar AS / Turk Telekomunikasyon AS / TAV Havalimanlari Holding AS /

Marc 3 Our performance last week (measured since Feb 20) showed that we outperformed the benchmark in China by 115 bpts in Russia by 1400 bpts in Turkey by 369bpts.

Feb 21 Doing well in Russia, Turkey and China

Feb 14 GEMs Portfolio performance update

Jan 29 Portfolio

China, Brazil, S.Korea, Turkey, India, Russia, S Africa

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